Absolut Kohl - German election WI 1983

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_German_federal_election,_1983

The victory of Helmut Kohl and the CDU/CSU in the federal election of 1983 wasn´t really a big surprise. But still there was something which added some suspense to the election evening: For some time it wasn´t sure, if the Greens could pass the 5%-mark and gain access to the Bundestag. If this would have happend, then the CDU/CSU would have won a absolut majority. So lets say, the Greens got just 4,9% instead of 5,6%, the SPD it a bit stronger, but not strong enough to prevent a absolut majority of the CDU/CSU.
What will Kohl do with his (quiet comfortable) absolut majority? Will Frans Josef Strauß become Foreign Minister and Vice-chancellor? Will the Greens and the FDP survive as independent parties or will there be a 2-party-system in Germany?
Whats your opinion?
 
You can bet that after 4 years of an absolute CDU/CSU majority the Green party would be back. Don't see Germany turning into a 2 party system, way too diverse positions of the electorate.
 
It would be quite ironic if the FDP that had ditched Helmut Schmidt now wouldn't be needed anymore.

I think the FDP-members wouldn´t see the irony. Genscher would surly forced to resign. In the end I assume the FDP wouldn´t survive as a important party.
But I´m sure, that the Greens would make a comeback. So I speculate without a partner the CDU/CSU would propably change the electoral system to prevent a red-green majority. (But I also think that they can get again a absolut majority without that in 1987)
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_German_federal_election,_1983

The victory of Helmut Kohl and the CDU/CSU in the federal election of 1983 wasn´t really a big surprise. But still there was something which added some suspense to the election evening: For some time it wasn´t sure, if the Greens could pass the 5%-mark and gain access to the Bundestag. If this would have happend, then the CDU/CSU would have won a absolut majority. So lets say, the Greens got just 4,9% instead of 5,6%, the SPD it a bit stronger, but not strong enough to prevent a absolut majority of the CDU/CSU.
What will Kohl do with his (quiet comfortable) absolut majority? Will Frans Josef Strauß become Foreign Minister and Vice-chancellor? Will the Greens and the FDP survive as independent parties or will there be a 2-party-system in Germany?
Whats your opinion?


  1. The Green party would definitely come back to try again. It was such a part of the way society was moving that it is not that easily to butterfly away at that point of time.
  2. The CDU/CSU alone would not be in the position to change the voting system towards a majority system. They need a 2/3- majority and the SPD would, despite the possibility to kill off the Greens once and for all, not got for that as it would be the way to turn Germany into a big Bavaria, electionwise.
  3. The FDP might become part of the coalition, still. First of all, as a reward for treason, and secondly, to keep FJS in Munich. Kohl would have hated to have this guy as foreign secretary.
  4. However, there is a good probability that, in the coalition or out of it, the FDP might not recover from this. They took quite a ditch OTL and since then their voter base is always a) very fragile and b) dependant on strategic voters who actually are sympathetic to the CDU.
  5. It is really probable that Kohl might defend this majority in 1987, especially if voters write the FDP off.
  6. Now an absolute CDU majority 1983-90, that might change Germany a bit and have butterflies, but still, I do not see epochal changes. Maybe a bit more corruption. ;)
 
  1. The Green party would definitely come back to try again. It was such a part of the way society was moving that it is not that easily to butterfly away at that point of time.
  2. The CDU/CSU alone would not be in the position to change the voting system towards a majority system. They need a 2/3- majority and the SPD would, despite the possibility to kill off the Greens once and for all, not got for that as it would be the way to turn Germany into a big Bavaria, electionwise.
  3. The FDP might become part of the coalition, still. First of all, as a reward for treason, and secondly, to keep FJS in Munich. Kohl would have hated to have this guy as foreign secretary.
  4. However, there is a good probability that, in the coalition or out of it, the FDP might not recover from this. They took quite a ditch OTL and since then their voter base is always a) very fragile and b) dependant on strategic voters who actually are sympathetic to the CDU.
  5. It is really probable that Kohl might defend this majority in 1987, especially if voters write the FDP off.
  6. Now an absolute CDU majority 1983-90, that might change Germany a bit and have butterflies, but still, I do not see epochal changes. Maybe a bit more corruption. ;)

1. Agreed
2. No, you don´t need a 2/3 majority. The electoral system is no part of the Basic Law, it can be changed by simple majority. The reasons that it wasn´t changed were always pure political. In the fifties the Union had a absolut majority in the Bundestag, but the FDP threated to bring down all CDU-Ländergoverments, if they tried to change the electoral system. In the sixties everybody expected that a FPP-system would favor the Union and so there wasn´t even a simple maority possible. But ITTL the Union would have absolut majority in the Bundestag and in 5 Ländern, given them also an absolut majority in the Bundesrat. (There was only a CDU/FDP coalition in the Saarland at this time)
3. At this time, the FDP had already established, that they would never form a coalition with a party which had a absolut maority. Okay, such promises can nbe brocken but in this case it would propably just speed the decay of the FDP. It seems that Kohl in 1982/83 actually put real afford in it to convince Strauß to oin the goverment as minister of finance or defense. He wanted to have Strauß in Bonn to better control him. Its possible that Strauß always declared that he wanted to become foreign minister, because he could be sure that Genscher wouldn´t never accept this (Better the first in Munich, but the second in Bonn)
4. Agreed
5. Agreed
6. A absolut conservative majority in Bonn makes Andropov much more paronid, Able Archer leads to WWIII AND WE ALL DIE! Changes enough?:D
Okay, just a joke. Okay, maybe not such epochal changes, but I think its possible the whole geistig-moralische Wende-thing would play a creater role ITTL. IOTL Kohl could always play out the FDP against the conservatives in the Union, but with a comfortable absolut majority I think its possible that the conservatives would demand a stricter abortion law.
And if it comes to a two-party system (or at least a system where the to big party don´t really need the other partys anymore) the Union-dominance could last till 1998, followed by a SPD-dominance which last till 2009 or beyond.
 
In case of FJS as Aussenminister

...now if Kohl manages to get Strauss as Foreign Secretary; and defends the absolute majority in 1987, and if Strauss dies as in OTL in 1988 - who would be his successor. I actually do not see a person within the CDU/CSU who would be a logical choice. Späth maybe? As far as I know, he enjoyed travelling.

However, the post would be of quite some importance during 1989/90 - if the end of the cold war isn't butterflied away.

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On a different note: IMHO, the CDU wouldn't turn more conservative than in OTL. Kohl would have to position it towards the center of society in order to go where elections are won.
 

Susano

Banned
On a different note: IMHO, the CDU wouldn't turn more conservative than in OTL. Kohl would have to position it towards the center of society in order to go where elections are won.

Yesss, but in this perception matters, not substance. If they get progmatically even more rea... conservative, but publically uphold their moderate face, well... of course, with Strauß in an important position that could be difficult, heh.
 
Yesss, but in this perception matters, not substance. If they get progmatically even more rea... conservative, but publically uphold their moderate face, well... of course, with Strauß in an important position that could be difficult, heh.

I'd say so. Same goes with German media outside of Springer. I grew up under the impression, that they were a lot more critical of....anything in the 1980s...than they are now.
 
...now if Kohl manages to get Strauss as Foreign Secretary; and defends the absolute majority in 1987, and if Strauss dies as in OTL in 1988 - who would be his successor. I actually do not see a person within the CDU/CSU who would be a logical choice. Späth maybe? As far as I know, he enjoyed travelling.

However, the post would be of quite some importance during 1989/90 - if the end of the cold war isn't butterflied away.

---

On a different note: IMHO, the CDU wouldn't turn more conservative than in OTL. Kohl would have to position it towards the center of society in order to go where elections are won.

A year ago I would have said, that you don´t need really much to be a good foreign minister. But Westerwelle proofed me otherwise.:D
Okay, if the CSU wants to keep the foreign ministry, then it will be Theo Waigel. If Waigel prefer to become finance minister, then Kohl will propably make Horst Teltschik foreign minister. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horst_Teltschik#Biografie
 

Susano

Banned
I'd say so. Same goes with German media outside of Springer. I grew up under the impression, that they were a lot more critical of....anything in the 1980s...than they are now.

How tactful of you to formulate it that way. Id rather say considering what they still said in the 80s, l nevermind earlier decades, the Union parties have quite a chuzpe to accuse the Linke of being apologetic about their past...
 
Okay, if the CSU wants to keep the foreign ministry, then it will be Theo Waigel. If Waigel prefer to become finance minister, then Kohl will propably make Horst Teltschik foreign minister. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horst_Teltschik#Biografie

I absolutely forgot about "Den Waigel", Genschman's nemesis after The Toad had died. Really a possible idea. Though, Teltschik, yes, also an excellent idea. Very brainy guy, at least in my impression.
 
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