These three events occurred within a month of one another and all are considered to have very nearly brought about the Third World War, or at least brought Cold War tension to levels not seen since 1962.
Assuming the Korean Air incident is delayed by a month and the incident that caused the malfunction to the early warning system that in OTL was disregarded by Colonel Petrov is delayed by a few days to coincide with Able Archer, what is the likelihood of all out nuclear war?