Able Archer and one pelmeny too many

At least some of the equipment is staying in the DDR to bring units remaining up to full T/E if not even more so. Since there has been no mention of the bases, I will assume they remain there either in complete mothball status or partially so as other units are still there. The loan money has gone for the building of new facilities in the Ukraine, but will all of the money be used for that - there is really no way for NATO to ensure that all of the money was spent on barracks, garages, etc and not that stuff was built with inflated costs and the leftover hard currency used elsewhere (who checks the books, which are cooked to be sure). What happens to the T/O and T/E for Soviet units in Czechoslovakia and Poland (and maybe Hungary), are they plussed up a little using men/equipment from these 8 divisions so that the more "forward" WP conventional forces don't take an 8 division reduction but somewhat less? There are lots of ways to cheat that are not covered in the agreement, even if NATO sees some of this.

Since a "bolt out of the blue" attack was not really in the cards at this point in time, consider that moving those 8 divisions back from the Ukraine to the DDR is going to take a LOT less time than it would be for the US REFORGER units to get to Germany and match up with POMCUS equipment. The elimination of those classes of missiles on both sides with destruction is verifiable, and prevention of reconstitution easier to spot. IMHO part of the problem (like OTL) is that the US has signed on to eliminating a whole class of missiles (cruise missiles), which includes future models. The USSR has done away with SS-20s, but what about the not yet designed SS-21 or -25 etc.

While the USSR can buy some computer equipment with the loan, and they're not getting a boatload worth for free as they asked for, I don't see how it helps them. Their problem is their inability to make the microchips and other bits for these systems with the processing power the western ones have and the quality control. Just like they did with FIAT they really need turnkey factories to make the guts, and the west is not selling that tech to them. Stealing blueprints and tech specs is not enough, neither is reverse engineering...
 
Confirmation
31st of December 1983 FRG Television.

Yearly speech of the chancellor to the population of Germany.

“My dear fellow countrymen. 1983 has seen big improvements for all of us. The economy is thriving, unemployment goes down, but most importantly, we have succeeded in making Europe safer. The new contract between the USA and the USSR that has been implemented successfully has shown that standing firm against the Warsaw Pact was the right strategy. Just as I am talking to you a substantial part of the Red Army is driving back to Russia. This is a huge success for us.

Still the fact remains, that our friends in Eastern Germany are still not masters of their own fate and are forcibly separated from us. My friends in Eastern Germany, we will continue to work on reuniting Germany to a democratic country being part of the west.[1]

I wish you all a successful and healthy 1984”


[1] The yearly speech was an OTL ritual and in the original speeches (which were of course longer but I suppose no one wants to read the equivalent of 15 minutes speech here), always included some good wishes for the people in the GDR. And the reunification was part of the official partymanifest of the CDU.
 
Surprises
1st of January 1984, innergerman border at the Hamburg-Berlin Autobahn, 4:30 am

Polizeimeister Ralf Schmitt from the BGS was bored. As bored as one could be. Somebody had to have the bad shift on the 1st of January and he simply had drawn the shortest straw. Normally on that particular day there was hardly any traffic anyway but due to an accident somewhere in the east the Autobahn was fully closed. A dozen or so cars were waiting on the western side for it to be opened again. His colleagues on the eastern side had hinted on drunk Russian truck drivers. Whatever…

He stood up to get himself a coffee. Coming back he saw the bright light of the border station on the eastern side, the rest of the world was pitch dark. And suddenly, on all lanes of the highway tanks appeared, racing towards the border. “Scheiße” was the last thought he had before the 105 mm shell from the leading tank exploded in the building.

The tanks systematically made sure no one was alive to report what was going on and the NVA soldiers on the eastern side (those, who did survive as the gunnery from the tanks was generous but not accurate) look totally astonished as a seemingly neverending column of tanks and other military equipment raced over the border.

Same time, innergerman border at the Berlin-Hannover Autobahn

Polizeimeister Jan Meier, who had been also bored as the highway was blocked by a traffic accident some kilometers in the east also only had seconds to realize what was going on.

The German staff on both sides of the border was utterly shocked to see a huge amount of Russian tanks suddenly appearing and starting to fire at the western staff. Here as well killing everybody who could report what was going on.

What would amount to 6 tank divisions and 4 motor rifle divisions (with not that much support units but greatly strengthened in AA capabilities) had started the invasion of the FRG and nobody in the West still alive knew about it.
 
Hi,

I have some posts prepared and will prepare some more but beginning Sunday I will be on a Holiday and will not use the PC during this. So the end will come in some weeks. Now, if a lot of People say: Nay, impossible, 10 divisions moved to the border without the west noticing, I may stop here right now. But in the other Able Archer thread the west did not notice 2 days of the WP going full mobilization. So yes, this may be a bit optimistic but not outside the scope of the possibilities.
 
But how is this happening? Weren't NATO officers in the trains going east? Or were the trains carrying only personnel and not equipment?
 
I expect those trains will rapidly reverse and the NATO officers are now PoWs. The Russians will make a lot of gains early on, but if they expect the FRG to surrender and tell NATO to leave, I doubt that will happen. Even with the trains reversing, it will take time for those divisions to get back on line, and while the force mentioned is nothing to sneeze at, and assuming the East Germans are piling on with ready forces (nothing being mobilized for security), you basically have one OMG which can't take on all of the geography. If the Russians had other WP forces involved, other than the East Germans, I don't see how it would be kept under wraps. One of the elements of any conventional attack would be to surge the Soviet naval forces so that a significant number of subs were across the GIUK gap to interdict US reinforcements to Europe. I can guarantee that if this was done the NATO naval forces would know about it, and if not the Soviets will have a very difficult time trying to get forces past an alerted at war NATO naval force - some subs will get through but not the numbers they would want to be out there. The USN (and other NATO navies) had a very good handle on what was normal and what was not.(1)

(1) While diesel subs can transit underwater using the snorkel system to run engines/charge batteries, their speed of advance is limited compared to running on the surface. Additionally, the higher the sea state the more difficult it is for them to do this for any extended period and the North Atlantic in December/January is VERY rough, meaning the diesel subs either have to run on the surface or advance relatively slowly...
 
One thing that we know by now is that the soviet fleet was not to be deployed to deliver a third battle of the Atlantic but to be deployed defensively to protect Russia against the US fleet. If US subs made it close to Archangelsk, Moscow was not that far away. I mean russion war planners were not complete idiots. They knew they had two alternatives:

1. Deploy the subs before any land war would start which would most likely tell the NATO that a strike was imminent (and NATO could have easily flown in the soldiers)
2. Start the landwar as surprise and have the subs go out then... against a fully prepared NATO fleet that was completely superior.

Conclusion: Deploy the fleet to defend Russia.

So sorry no naval action at all. Would have been too one sided anyway.

For the trains you are spot on. But I think there will be a surprise even in that.
 
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Decisions 2.5
Moscow, Kremlin 13th to 16th of November

The debates were hotter than ever in the politburo. Some denied the veracity of the information given to them outright, other members denied parts of it (and of course everybody that part that he was responsible for), some even went so far as to accuse the three messengers of working for the CIA. Shouting was normal for the first of those days but… over the course of the 13th and the 14th it became clearer and clearer that the analysis, harsh as it was, was fundamentally correct and more and more and in the end all members of the Politburo changed over from denial to accusation to accepting and then planning what to do.

In the morning of the 16th the discussion had reached a stage in which certain points were no longer disputed.

  1. The West with Reagan heading the way was intent on destroying the USSR. They were preparing for a first strike in the hope that they might have a winnable nuclear war. SDI and the cruise missiles were a clear sign for that. Able Archer was just the icing on the cake.

  2. Long term capitalism will go down as inevitable as the sun goes up[1]. But short term they were at an advantage and the USSR could not afford to spend the money that was needed to keep up with the West.

  3. If one prioritized spending, one could keep up with the West in technology but then one would have to reduce the military which would only invite the USA to strike.[2]

  4. A solution was needed to set back the NATO, beef up the WP (especially the USSR) and buy some time and money to close the technological gap.
One thing was clear, one had to reduce the readiness of the NATO and obtain maximum surprise. To do this political maskirowka was needed and the timing needed to be carefully planned. Luring the NATO into lower readiness could be achieved by solving the missile debate. And as everybody agreed that waiting would make the situation only worse, a strike in a very near future was needed. The lowest general combat readiness was expected on the 1st of January with many soldiers on leave, some even on longer holidays and a lot of people either drunk or at least fast asleep and everything manned with only the minimum.

The surprise element was to be achieved by starting the war with only minimal forces and only on a small front so that the first strike would come out of the blue. No overtime for people working on it, no wireless or phone communication of plans. Officers to rotate into units in the GDR would get them in paper and in paper only they would stay. For soldiers, other than those only very few officers who needed to know, the 31st of December would start like every normal day and continue as such pretty long.

The attack was to begin in the north with reasoning that the Bundeswehr and the Dutch, Belgian and English army would have a much lower battle readiness than the US army in the south (the US soldiers being much farther away from home, so most of them would be in the barracks) and there were less obstacles.[3]


[1] It sort of nearly did in 2008 when the US government had to buy nearly all big banks and GM. No shooting please.

[2] Of course both would never happen but how could they know?

[3] In 1985 most likely Gorbachev was in a similar situation with the west even more ahead in technology. He did not go for any military solution. But here the soviet leadership is convinced that if they do not anything the USA will strike and that they now have the last chance to avoid the attack by the capitalistic and therefor imperialistic and therefor aggressive west. Luckily IOTL they did not know about the F117. I can´t stress that too much: Both sides lacked even the most basic understanding of what was really driving the other side, still visible today
 
The Russian Navy periodically practiced surging submarines, although in conjunction with various announced exercises so as not to be too freaky. While "homeland/coastal" defense was a mission for the navy, the reality was the size of the navy and the sub fleet in particular was way out of proportion for such a role. US/NATO SSBNs did not need to get very close to the coast, even with the first generation Polaris missiles - the only naval forces that might directly approach would be US carrier groups, and even the most aggressive plans for those presupposed some level of knocking down Soviet naval forces before getting "relatively" close. Building, maintaining, and manning the size fleet the Soviets built was one of the strains on the USSR economy. if the plan was to keep forces on the Russian side of the GIUK Gap, only operate in the North Sea/Norwegian Sea and the Baltic, then a large percentage of the submarine and surface fleet was a complete waste. If you have evidence that the Soviets did not plan a guerre de course/USW against US/NATO in the Atlantic I'd love to see it.
 
Sloreck, with your argument the whole soviet military was totally overblown. How many warheads would you need to kill more or less every person in the NATO? So let´s agree to disagree. And tis war will have no naval action. Reasons for this will be obvious.

As I will be on Holiday until End of November I will post some more, but the story will hang in the air.
 
Preparations
Moscow and east Germany 17th of November to 30th of December.

It was a hell of a job. Finding the units with the highest battle readiness identifying the best officers, preparing orders, hand them to the most carefully selected officers to be in the know, and then bringing the best men and equipment together with the best officers without the NATO noticing what was going on. But bit by bit the pieces of the puzzle fell together. But still, in the 8 divisions of the train only(!) the division commander would know what was to come and in the divisions to strike first, the commanders only had envelopes with the strict order not to open them before the 30th of December at noon. But it did seem to work. The West was so happy with the success at Helsinki and so boasting of the victory they had won that either no one detected anything or those who did were shut down and nobody made the connections needed. Whatever the NATO was clearly going into Christmas mood first and then directly into New Years mood. That meant that of the nominally 495.000 strong Bundeswehr (a force larger than the Red Army in the GDR) maybe 50.000 would be on active duty on the 1st of January in the morning.[1]

And oneself would have 10 divisions striking with the eight on the trains following.


[1] And that is a maximum estimate
 
@ferdi254 : Enjoy your holiday. The point about nukes is that if your only options in war are do nothing or incinerate the world you don't need conventional forces. BOTH sides had significant conventional forces under the theory/hope that if it came to blows the nukes could be kept tucked away. Serious thinkers on both sides realized that once you used nukes on land, even "small" tactical ones, things would almost certainly spin out of control. There was legitimate discussion about whether things like nuclear SAMs or depth charges at sea would cause the same escalation, but no consensus - the risks would be high. My point was the USSR spent a great deal of money and scarce human resources on building up a navy very much designed to be able to put the squeeze on US/NATO ability to reinforce across the Atlantic long enough for the Red Army to succeed on land without the use of nukes. Historically speaking navies are expensive in many ways, and powers great and small build them to suit their needs and planned strategies. Some expansion/puffery for "showing the flag" does happen but that's limited, and do note that for "showing the flag" submarines are not the vessel of choice.

This ends the discussion about this matter from my side, its your T/L to write.
 
3,2,1
31st of December 3 pm local time several places in the GDR.

The cascade was running. In the divisions to start the attack the commanders were informing the officers and the orders were given out to noncoms and soldiers. Get the equipment ready, pack as much fuel and ammunition as possible, go light on the food (the officers who were monitoring the destruction of American rockets has unanimously reported that getting food was not an issue in the FRG) and move out slowly in small parties to staging areas north and south of the highways 2 and 24 from which it would only be a 20 km drive to the border. Moving only to start after sunset and small roads to be used, exact maps had been prepared. Anybody using wireless to be shot on the spot. Anybody using large lighting, same consequence. Eventually 98% of the units made it to the places at least on time to start moving in the morning. The fuel of all moving equipment was filled up completely, the soldiers were to get some hours of sleep.
 
A bad surprise in the making
31st of December, GDR, Schwerin, 10 pm.

Hans Müller was a peaceful and contend man. Since he was 17 he has been working on the Reichsbahn in the interlocking to make sure the trains went smoothly. He had never cared that much for politics so to say he was completely aghast when at 10 in the night suddenly there was loud banging on the door is still an understatement (his pants actually changed color). He opened and was hurriedly dragged into a bus where he already saw two dozens of his colleagues. Well, what do you do if a Russian sergeant is shouting at you and 4 soldiers have their rifles aimed at you?

The bus was picking up more of his colleagues and finally went to the east, close to the border. They arrived a bit after midnight and were given some food, some beer and a speech in bad German by a Russian officer: “Comrades, you here for important service to socialism. We will beat capitalist swines. You will train keep running, train with soviet heroes to beat Fascists in Germany.” He and his colleagues were totally baffled.
 
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