ABLE ARCHER 83: Timeline of a Third World War in 1983
- Thread starter giobastia
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With only Clark and Subic Bay in rubble, the Philippines is relatively lucky. Even Canada has lost Edmonton, Halifax, and eastern Montreal.
I can definitely see the Republic of China lunging for the Spratleys in order to boost nationalism among the Chinese people, though. Sucks to live anywhere, though.
I can definitely see the Republic of China lunging for the Spratleys in order to boost nationalism among the Chinese people, though. Sucks to live anywhere, though.
Dayton Kitchens
Banned
Thought this has been a dead thread for awhile I thought it was worth keeping closer to the top given its excellence. Most of it is on its way to becoming part of my alternate history lesson in World History 10th grade level.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
Hope I'm not necroing, but is there a way to read the entire timeline without the comments?
Yea, I know what you mean - came across it on Sunday!!
I wonder how much of an impact (pun intended) did the 'War' have on the World's population!??
yes, but we haven't heard anything from giobastia since September 17, 2013. 9 months.
Just caught up, love the timeline. Plausible and gripping.
My only quibble is with the big turn here, which is the Soviet decision to nuke China. The author explained that move well and I certainly do not see it as ASB. But it rang a little false to me, at least within the context of this story. The Soviet regime was panicking and was facing strategic collapse, so I agree they'd have wanted to do something.
But why risk alienating China, with whom USSR still has a non-aggression pact, even if they're doubting Chinese intentions? A first strike on China would still seem to the Soviets like a good bet for provoking Reagan into a first strike on themselves, which after all was what drove the Soviet decision to go to war in the first place.
What seems more likely to me is that they'd have given Reagan the ultimatum they eventually did give him - but before an attack on China, not after. Basically, end this war on terms that are acceptable to the USSR, or else face nuclear attack. That puts the onus for armageddon on the USA and potentially wedges Western Europe apart from Washington - at least in Moscow's mind.
Reagan would be facing a pickle of a decision. My guess is he goes on TV to say he won't negotiate with nuclear terrorists, and then proceeds to do precisely that, laying out his own terms for an armistice. Eventually one is reached, after lots of threats and brinksmanship and a nuclear exchange is avoided. The endgame looks like a mix of 1962, where the USSR eventually blinks, and 1918-19, where the USSR and Warsaw Pact collapse right before, during, and after the cessation of hostilities. NATO promises Moscow that they might get a decent deal out of the peace settlement, while counting on the fact that Moscow will not be in charge of much at all within a matter of weeks, allowing the West to more or less impose its terms.
Still, that's less dramatic than an actual nuclear war, and you did a great job showing how it would have played out on that dark night of February 17, 1984.
My only quibble is with the big turn here, which is the Soviet decision to nuke China. The author explained that move well and I certainly do not see it as ASB. But it rang a little false to me, at least within the context of this story. The Soviet regime was panicking and was facing strategic collapse, so I agree they'd have wanted to do something.
But why risk alienating China, with whom USSR still has a non-aggression pact, even if they're doubting Chinese intentions? A first strike on China would still seem to the Soviets like a good bet for provoking Reagan into a first strike on themselves, which after all was what drove the Soviet decision to go to war in the first place.
What seems more likely to me is that they'd have given Reagan the ultimatum they eventually did give him - but before an attack on China, not after. Basically, end this war on terms that are acceptable to the USSR, or else face nuclear attack. That puts the onus for armageddon on the USA and potentially wedges Western Europe apart from Washington - at least in Moscow's mind.
Reagan would be facing a pickle of a decision. My guess is he goes on TV to say he won't negotiate with nuclear terrorists, and then proceeds to do precisely that, laying out his own terms for an armistice. Eventually one is reached, after lots of threats and brinksmanship and a nuclear exchange is avoided. The endgame looks like a mix of 1962, where the USSR eventually blinks, and 1918-19, where the USSR and Warsaw Pact collapse right before, during, and after the cessation of hostilities. NATO promises Moscow that they might get a decent deal out of the peace settlement, while counting on the fact that Moscow will not be in charge of much at all within a matter of weeks, allowing the West to more or less impose its terms.
Still, that's less dramatic than an actual nuclear war, and you did a great job showing how it would have played out on that dark night of February 17, 1984.
Come to think of it, this TL needs more love, since I highly adore the premise of a third world war in 1983 (maybe I could make a comic based on this premise).
chankljp
Donor
I hope that I am not grave-digging (is this the correct term?) this thread or anything, but I just wanted to let everyone know that this is hands down, one of the best, if not THE best alternate history timeline I ever had the pleasure of reading. I just came across this randomly, and ended up spending all my free time in the past three days reading though ever single discussion and posts.
Like quite a few other users have suggested, it will be great if there can be a 'story only' thread without the discussion, or at lease some kind of bookmark so that we can re-visit certain sections more easily. I will go a step further and suggest that this entire piece (when combined with all the discussions on the impact of the war on popular culture, political outlook, etc, in the user discussions) deserves to be moved to the Alternate History Wiki. If not, then it certainly needs to at lease get it's own TV Tropes page so that more people will get exposed to this master piece.
To add to the discussion itself, I remember seeing someone bringing up the fate of Samantha Smith in this timeline. I can see what the OP suggested happening (with her being either forgotten, or mocked and ridiculed for being a stupid girl who doesn't know anything) takes place... but only if she survived the war. On the other hand, if she is (un)fortunate enough to perish in the war, however, I can imagine her image getting much more influence then she ever did in OTL. With the post-war media hyping her up as this angelic, almost fairytale like 'too-good-for-this-sinful-earth' tragic figure, and perhaps (with a bit of creative license on the part of the writers) even as a personification of the well-intentioned attempt at détente and peaceful co-existence with the USSR. Better yet, if like another poster suggested, she actually died at the hands of the Soviets during a diplomatic visit... then I can imagine her achieving near mythical status, with her being endlessly used in Western propaganda, perhaps with her a slogan like 'Remember her!'.
As a final note, as someone who was born in 1992 in Hong Kong, I guess that even if the city wasn't hit by nukes, I will be automatically butterflied out of existence.
Once again, thank you so much to everyone from this great piece of AH!
Like quite a few other users have suggested, it will be great if there can be a 'story only' thread without the discussion, or at lease some kind of bookmark so that we can re-visit certain sections more easily. I will go a step further and suggest that this entire piece (when combined with all the discussions on the impact of the war on popular culture, political outlook, etc, in the user discussions) deserves to be moved to the Alternate History Wiki. If not, then it certainly needs to at lease get it's own TV Tropes page so that more people will get exposed to this master piece.
To add to the discussion itself, I remember seeing someone bringing up the fate of Samantha Smith in this timeline. I can see what the OP suggested happening (with her being either forgotten, or mocked and ridiculed for being a stupid girl who doesn't know anything) takes place... but only if she survived the war. On the other hand, if she is (un)fortunate enough to perish in the war, however, I can imagine her image getting much more influence then she ever did in OTL. With the post-war media hyping her up as this angelic, almost fairytale like 'too-good-for-this-sinful-earth' tragic figure, and perhaps (with a bit of creative license on the part of the writers) even as a personification of the well-intentioned attempt at détente and peaceful co-existence with the USSR. Better yet, if like another poster suggested, she actually died at the hands of the Soviets during a diplomatic visit... then I can imagine her achieving near mythical status, with her being endlessly used in Western propaganda, perhaps with her a slogan like 'Remember her!'.
As a final note, as someone who was born in 1992 in Hong Kong, I guess that even if the city wasn't hit by nukes, I will be automatically butterflied out of existence.
Once again, thank you so much to everyone from this great piece of AH!
Are there rules regarding the collation of another user's work? I love this TL, and I've read it through three times over the last year. I would also like to have a story-only version, and I'm willing to put it together. What I don't know is where it would be posted, and how to ensure it is properly credited to giobastia.
Contacting giobasta
Sorry to post on a finished TL, but does anybody know how to get in touch with giobasta?
I wanted to see if he'd grant me permission to post an alternate version of this TL on the board. I know he hasn't been on in a good long while, just wondering if anyone had any contact with him off of the board- facebook, email, etc.
Clearly this is a long shot, but if someone could help me pass a message along to him I would really appreciate it!
Sorry to post on a finished TL, but does anybody know how to get in touch with giobasta?
I wanted to see if he'd grant me permission to post an alternate version of this TL on the board. I know he hasn't been on in a good long while, just wondering if anyone had any contact with him off of the board- facebook, email, etc.
Clearly this is a long shot, but if someone could help me pass a message along to him I would really appreciate it!
chankljp
Donor
I want to do that too! It will make re-reading this excellent timeline so much easier. Can we ask the admin permission to post a story only thread if we properly link to and give credit to the original author, seeing as that he is not longer active here?
I think you would probably have a pretty easy time convincing the mods of that. I recommend asking them in Forum Rules or Help and Feedback, they should get back to you really quickly.
What I've got is really a different version of the story. It's the same for a while and then I took it in a different direction- an alternate history of an alternate history, if you will. And the mods told me in no uncertain terms that I needed permission to post it, which is thoroughly understandable.
But just posting a story-only version in the completed TL section? I think you could easily get permission for that.
BUMP!
It was always a long shot, so I won't drag this out too much longer.
Here's another question:
Is there anyone who feels like they were relatively close with giobasta who DID NOT get any outside contact info from him? That could be a clue that the contact info just isn't available.
It was always a long shot, so I won't drag this out too much longer.
Here's another question:
Is there anyone who feels like they were relatively close with giobasta who DID NOT get any outside contact info from him? That could be a clue that the contact info just isn't available.
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