Now Ive been been reading up on nuclear Pod's since reading the excellent Protect & Survive thread and also on Doomsday 1983, both of which would differ from this POD though at the same time frame and reasons.
P&S assumes a slow build in tensions and been honest some of Doomsday 1983 seems unrealistic to me.
I'm just looking for feedback ideas in regards the following POD;
Several indications Ive seen from Able Archer exercise was that the Russians truly believed that an attack was going to happen and were very close to launching, primarily driven owing to information from Ryan, the problems with there systems (doomsday POD), misunderstanding of NATO deployments (only the signal corps & officers were in the field but the Soviets initially believed NATO had been mobilized, which was only the case in regards naval forces).
One thing that held them back at the very end was the fact Reagan refused to go to the command during the exercise so Thacher backed out as well followed by the other NATO heads of state, hence their place was taken by junior officers. This prevented the RYAN "board" been filed.
My POD is that Reagan and the other heads of state go the bunkers for the exercise, reinforcing soviet paranoia and they launch a first strike on NATO forces based on this and also on all USN, RN & NATO naval concentrations. Owing to the nature of the exercise im assuming on the last day of the exercise as that was the timetable of the theoretical Nato nuclear strike, sometime between 06:00 - 12:00 GMT.
I'm looking for feed in regards the following;
- Will the fact of an attack mid exercise delay the initial Us/NATO attack (even by a few minutes) and what would the effect be on survivability of governments since there already in the bunkers and of forces deployed since most of the signals corps is now gone?
- What are the likely effects on civil defense owing to attach occurring late evening and no notice get civil defense mobilized (mainly UK & Western Europe)
- Likelihood of targeting of neutrals?
> In regards Ireland im 50/50 on strike basically its either no strike at all, or referring to "The Strategic Importance of Ireland to the UK in Times of War" by the Irish & British governments where the likely targets are in order (interdiction strikes)
- Shannon (Airport used by NATO)
- Bantry Bay (Offshore Terminal used by NATO occasional for refuels)
- Dublin as possible though it offers little "strategic" value evidently
- Is a Soviet attack on other neutrals likely and what are likely targets?
- I'm assuming the Soviets take out China?
- Does anyone have a good target map of UK/Western Europe with Soviet targets and fallout? Ive seen so Met Eireann ones indicating the worst strike or Ireland would likely be Wales/Cornwall rather than NI depending on wind on the day (basically West or East)