Abe Lincoln, Hoosier?

Although Abraham Lincoln's home was in Indiana from the age of seven until shortly after his twenty-first birthday, Hoosiers have long complained that their state is unfairly neglected compared to Kentucky and Illinois where Lincoln is concerned; see Keith A. Erekson's amusing "Losing Lincoln: A Call to Commemorative Action" in the December 2009 *Indiana Magazine of History.* http://scholarworks.iu.edu/…/i…/imh/article/view/12446/18599 ("Four score and seven years ago, our Indiana fathers brought forth, within this state, a new rivalry, conceived in necessity, and dedicated to the proposition that neighboring states--specifically Kentucky and Illinois--were not treating Hoosiers as equal. For nearly a century and a half, Hoosiers have generally lost the struggle to claim Lincoln as a representative of their state...")

Here I would like to ask: What if Thomas Lincoln had decided not to move from Indiana to Illinois? Of course Abraham might decide eventually to move to Illinois by himself, but suppose he doesn't? (Even if he was anxious to leave his father--he could not have helped but notice that his father was less intelligent and ambitious than himself, and as David Donald remarks, nowhere in any of Lincoln's writings or recollected speech does he have one favorable word to say about his father--he might move to somewhere else in Indiana.) Does Hoosier Abe Lincoln eventually enter politics, and if so with how much success? As Erekson notes, the young Lincoln was in some ways a typical Hoosier frontier boy, yet in other ways a bit unusual: "It is time to note that Lincoln was not superhuman, merely a 'typical' frontier boy. His mother died, but one in every four children on the frontier lost a parent before age 15, and half of all America's sitting nineteenth-century presidents had lost one or both parents.20 We should stop claiming extraordinary things from the Hoosier Lincoln and instead hold a sophisticated conversation about the fact that though he was typical, he was also 'odd'--rejecting such pastimes as hunting and tobacco, becoming a Whig, and desiring all of his life to put his Indiana past behind him." (This last point is I suppose an argument that Lincoln would have eventually moved out of Indiana, anyway, whatever his father did.) Erekson also points out that "Lincoln's great religious contradiction--though he joined no Christian church, he still brought the Bible dramatically and effectively into his speeches and policy--began in Indiana. Here he read the Bible but did not join the Baptist church; here he mocked organized religion by satirizing circuit preachers; and here too, in the recent words of historian Stewart Winger, he laid the core of his 'romantic cultural politics.'"

If the Hoosier Lincoln does eventually decide to go into politics, it will presumably be the same kind as in Illinois--a moderately anti-slavery Whig. This was of course a minority position in both these states: the frontier--and especially the frontier areas that were at first settled more by Southerners than Northeners--tended to be Democratic and Negrophobic, and it is no wonder that Lincoln had plenty of political failures as well as successes in Illinois. Yet if anything the Whigs were slightly stronger in Indiana than Illinois, and the presence of a large number of anti-war Quakers in southern Indiana might make criticism of the Mexican War less politically harmful in Indiana than it was in Illinois. OTOH, at least in Illinois the explosive growth of Chicago would eventually counterbalance the "southernness" of much of the rest of the state; Indiana too received an increasing number of Yankees but not to the same extent.

Anyway, one problem Lincoln would have if he became a Whig/Republican politician in Indiana: The Indiana "fusion" or "People's Party" (the "anti-Nebraska" movment that emerged in 1854--they didn't use the word "Republican" yet because it sounded too "radical") was, especially in its early days, *very* heavily influenced by Know Nothings. One historian writes, "In Indiana as elsewhere there was a movement for a Fusion or People's party. The Know Nothings, perhaps the strongest of all the elements of the opposition but not strong enough to run a ticket of their own, determined to act with the Fusionists, to control the whole movement and to direct it in their own interests. In this they were merely following the usage of their brethren in the eastern states when the party was weak there. As a result their program was carried out with astonishing success, for during the entire canvass of 1854 the invisible machinery of Know Nothingism governed the Fusion movement—its nominations, its active organization and its campaign." https://books.google.com/books?pg=R...MsGyyAStsIDQBg&id=Q3YfAQAAMAAJ&ots=ZfyWlhAShu This fact was often used against Schuyler Colfax in his later political career (even though he denied ever joining the Order) and presumably would be used against Lincoln as well...
 
And, of course, however he makes out in Indiana, he obviously won't be running against Douglas in Illinois.

Any idea who else might oppose Douglas, and how they'd make out compared to Lincoln?
 
And, of course, however he makes out in Indiana, he obviously won't be running against Douglas in Illinois.

Any idea who else might oppose Douglas, and how they'd make out compared to Lincoln?

Theoretically, they could take Horace Greeley's advice and back Douglas, because of his opposition to Lecompton. See David Potter's account in *The impending Crisis, 1848-1861*, pp. 320-321:

"In many respects, this was 1854 all over again. Once again a newly elected president, with all the influence a new president commands, had been induced, because pf his southern sympathies, to support a bill that was highly objectionable to the northern members of his own party. Once again, a party revolt followed, leading once again to a pitched political battle, famous in the annals of party warfare.

"Along with these similarities, there were two important differences. First, Stephen A. Douglas, previously the Senate floor leader for the administration, was now the floor leader for the opposition. The same tireless energy and the same matchless readiness and resourcefulness in debate which had carried Kansas-Nebraska to victory were now devoted to the defeat of Lecompton. Whereas Buchanan could not face the revolt of southerners if he opposed Lecompton, Douglas could not face the hostile response of Illinois and of the North generally if he supported it. Hence Congress presented a new spectacle.

"Day after day, Douglas voted on the same side with Chase and Wade and the men who had treated him in 1854 as if he were the Antichrist. Stranger bedfellows no one had ever seen, but for a season it was seriously believed that Douglas might become a Republican.

"Some of the eastern leaders, especially, took up the idea of supporting him and bringing him into the party. Henry Wilson believed Douglas would join the Republicans, and praised him as being "of more weight to our cause than any other ten men in the country." Horace Greeley, for all his professions of idealism, now declared: "The Republican standard is too high; we want something more practical." His idea of practicality was to throw Republican support behind Douglas in Washington, and his Tribune began to praise Douglas extravagantly. To the end of his life, he believed that it would have been sound Republican strategy to support Douglas. In Massachusetts, Nathaniel P. Banks urged Illinois Republicans to "sustain" Douglas. In Washington, as early as December 14, Douglas talked with Anson Burlingame and Schuyler Colfax about forming a great new party to oppose southern disunionists..."

I am inclined to believe that even without Lincoln, Illinois Republicans would have rejected Greeley's appeals. They just did not trust Douglas. I'm not sure who they would run--maybe Chicago Mayor "Long John" Wentworth?

One other possibility: Maybe if there is no Lincoln in Illinois, whoever is the Whigs' candidate for anti-Nebraska senator in 1855 will refuse to withdraw as Lincoln did--and (as Lincoln feared) Governor Matteson would buy some Trumbull votes and get elected! http://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0014.203/--senator-abraham-lincoln?rgn=main;view=fulltext In which case, Trumbull might run against Douglas in 1858.
 
Interesting. Wonder what the Trumbull-Douglas debates would be like.

In OTL, Trumbull *did* debate Douglas--in the Senate. He also denounced him in political meetings in Illinois. In fact, one reason Lincoln challenged Douglas to a series of debates was that Trumbull's denunciations of Douglas were getting so much attention that Lincoln had to show that he was his own man and could stand up to Douglas himself. http://dig.lib.niu.edu/ISHS/ishs-1964winter/ishs-1964winter-380.pdf
 
In OTL, Trumbull *did* debate Douglas--in the Senate. He also denounced him in political meetings in Illinois. In fact, one reason Lincoln challenged Douglas to a series of debates was that Trumbull's denunciations of Douglas were getting so much attention that Lincoln had to show that he was his own man and could stand up to Douglas himself. http://dig.lib.niu.edu/ISHS/ishs-1964winter/ishs-1964winter-380.pdf


Could we have the makings here of a Seward-Trumbull ticket in 1860?

It would pair an eastern ex-Whig with a western ex-Democrat, which sounds logical. And if by then the Illinois legislature is Republican, Trumbull's nomination would not cost his party a Senate seat.
 
One other possibility: Maybe if there is no Lincoln in Illinois, whoever is the Whigs' candidate for anti-Nebraska senator in 1855 will refuse to withdraw as Lincoln did--and (as Lincoln feared) Governor Matteson would buy some Trumbull votes and get elected! http://quod.lib.umich.edu/j/jala/2629860.0014.203/--senator-abraham-lincoln?rgn=main;view=fulltext In which case, Trumbull might run against Douglas in 1858.


This would probably have a butterfly effect on the Supreme Court.

On Feb 21, 1861, Pres Buchanan's appointment of Jeremiah S Black to the SCOTUS was rejected 26-25 by the Senate. Senator Trumbull voted in the negative.

Had his seat been occupied instead by Matteson, then other things being equal, it would probably be 26-25 the other way. Is any guess possible about what effect a Justice Black might have on the Court's decisions?
 
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