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What would be the worst plausible scenario in 1936? Let's say that Edward makes the broadcast despite Baldwin's advice to the contrary. Then Baldwin would have to ask for a snap dissolution and an election in the middle of December. Plus or minus 10 seats, the Tories retain their supermajority in the Commons. Does Baldwin still retire in 1937 or does Chamberlain take over as per OTL? Same age, both in good health and complete control of the caucus and country. Except Baldwin is much more a domestic conservative than Chamberlain. Presumably Edward VIII has to abdicate. The campaign's best comparison would be the Canadian election of 1926- where Mackenzie King won his third term by bashing Byng as an authority unto himself.