Abdication Crisis 1936- Worst case scenario?

What would be the worst plausible scenario in 1936? Let's say that Edward makes the broadcast despite Baldwin's advice to the contrary. Then Baldwin would have to ask for a snap dissolution and an election in the middle of December. Plus or minus 10 seats, the Tories retain their supermajority in the Commons. Does Baldwin still retire in 1937 or does Chamberlain take over as per OTL? Same age, both in good health and complete control of the caucus and country. Except Baldwin is much more a domestic conservative than Chamberlain. Presumably Edward VIII has to abdicate. The campaign's best comparison would be the Canadian election of 1926- where Mackenzie King won his third term by bashing Byng as an authority unto himself.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Well, I believe that Baldwin had entered into a gentleman's agreement with Attlee and Samuel that none of them would take office if Edward refused to abdicate or to drop Ms. Simpson. Since all were men of integrity and all took the situation very seriously, I see no reason why they wouldn't respect their pact.

In his book The Leader, Guy Walters constructs a scenario wherein Churchill and his newly-constructed Kings' Party runs in the snap election and wins enough seats to grant him the premiership in a coalition with the Tories and the BUF, which has won a few seats.

Unfortunately, Churchill is unable to control the situation and his ministry very quickly collapses. Moseley runs on a sort of "law and order" and "King and Country/Empire" platform (with the monarchy and a good deal of the upper class' support) and becomes head of a coalition government.

An Emergency Act is passed that allows Moseley to clamp down and quash the riots and general mayhem that have been plaguing Britain since Edward refused to abdicate. Dictatorship ensues and Britain starts to become chummy with Germany and Italy.
 
Baldwin was already PM and Tory leader. Remember that before 1964, a new Tory leader was chosen by the monarch with the Magic Circle's input, not by caucus vote. All the other ranking Cabinet ministers- in fact all of them- were pro-abdication. Unless of course the King picks Churchill, which would be like lobbing a flashbang grenade into a petrol station. When the Tories win another triple-digit overall majority (in 1935 IOTL it was 146), then the King has to abdicate. Baldwin cannot bash Edward in 1936 or 1937 like King did to Byng (a mere GG) a decade earlier, but the effect will be the same.
 
Top