ABDA-wank: Combined Striking Force 'wins' Java Sea

HJ Tulp

Donor
On the 27th of February the destruction of the Allied fleet at Java Sea sealed the fate of Java and with that the Dutch East Indies. Although this Combined Striking Force was under orders to 'continue to strike on the enemy until it was destroyed', it's story was one of the forboded death. The CSF was nummerically and qualitatively under strength versus it's Japanese opponents and it was also composed of units from four different navies which used different signs, doctrine and communication equipement, and which hadn't had much time to train together. In the end 2,300 Allied sailors died while only buying Java a single day.

Now even though the Allied fleet had almost no chance for succes that doesn't mean that it was impossible for ABDA to get a good result. What if it had?

Things that could have helped the CSF:

* After the battle of Bandung Strait, Rear-Admiral Karel Doorman (who commanded the Combined Strike Force) proposed to move his force into the Indian Ocean and use tankers to replenish his force at sea. This way the Japanese could be tricked into believing the Java Sea to be open and lessen the escort of the invasion force. Doorman's request was denied and when the Japanese spotted his fleet at Surabaya they adjusted the escorts accordingly.

* The CSF was divided in two parts. The Eastern Strike Force was the largest and based at Surabaya, this was the one that went down with Doorman. The Western Strike Force was based at Tandjong Priok, the harbour of Batavia. If Doorman is able to combine the two forces, that adds three light cruisers (HMS Danae, HMS Dragon, HMAS Hobart) and three destroyers (HMS Scout, HMS Tenedos and HrMs. Evertsen).

* As Dutch naval doctrine demanded, the CSF left Surabaya without the Dutch vessels carrying their floatplanes. This to avoid fire when they were hit. Of the other ships I don't know if they carried their planes but what it clear is that none of them were used. The Japanese forces did use the floatplanes to a great extend. If Doorman had used the floatplanes (at least 6) which were available to him, he could have had clear knowledge of the position of the Japanese invasionfleet. OTL this information was sorely lacking.

* There were a small number of allied air attacks in the days surrounding the 27th. Most notably an attack by a flight of American A-24s and a couple of attacks by Dutch Do-24s. They all failed, what if they had been extremely lucky?

Now even with all the above happening, the CSF needs a lot of luck. Luckily for them, this is a wank ;) With all the above happening I think there is a non-0% chance of allies doing damage to the Japanese invasion forces.

What if they succeed to destroy 50-75% of the Western Invasion Force in return for the same destruction to the CSF as OTL? Does Java fall in the end? Probably but I'm very curious about the immediate Japanese response.

Do they continue their advance with what is left of the Western Invasion Force as planned? Do they decide not to land the Western Invasion Force but do go ahead with the Eastern Invasion Force? (Do note that the WIF contained the crack 48th division.) If they cancel the operation, do both forces return to their place of embarkation being respectively Manilla and Cam Ranh Bay or do they choose a place more close to Java?
 
Assuming the CSF is destroyed while destroying the convoy, the allies don't have much left to stop further landings and reinforcements.
 
Doesn't match the PoD but if Force Z hadn't been sunk it could have joined ABDA naval forces, making them much more powerful.

In addition more powerful ABDA forces' most important failure wasn't Java Sea it was failing to stop the Sumatra invasion convoy on the night of 14 Feb. Imagine if Percival was told first thing on Feb 15 that the invasion of Sumatra had been thwarted by a sea battle, and perhaps that these victorious ships were now shelling Japanese positions on Singapore? Would have have decided to surrender during the day, or would he have held out a day longer leading to a Japanese withdrawal?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Assuming the CSF is destroyed while destroying the convoy, the allies don't have much left to stop further landings and reinforcements.

True. This is not unlike OTL though. It is also very likely that a follow up invasion takes Java anyway. Actually, if the invasion continues it might even be succesful. The question is, does it continue? Knock-on effects are guarenteed anyway though, as the invasion force isn't available for operations in Burma.

Doesn't match the PoD but if Force Z hadn't been sunk it could have joined ABDA naval forces, making them much more powerful.

Doesn't match the PoD indeed ;) Things is, I'm not sure that Repulse and PoW would have been present at Java Sea. The attempt by the CSF was a desperate last-ditch attempt. It seems that the only person that thought it could be succesful was Helfrich, who even told Doorman to attack the Eastern Invasion Force after the Western one would be destroyed. Doorman himself knew he was not coming back and the governments of Britain and the US saw their ships that were part of the CSF as dispensable. Which, being mostly old and light units, they were. Force Z, on the other hand, was certainly not dispensable. These are capital ships. I find it highly unlikely that the Admiralty would just throw those units away instead of retreating them to Colombo to form the basis of the Eastern Fleet.

Even if Force Z is present that doesn't necessarily mean the CSF has a better chance at succes. In fact, it probably triggers that IJN to increase their covering force and at a couple of battleships.

In addition more powerful ABDA forces' most important failure wasn't Java Sea it was failing to stop the Sumatra invasion convoy on the night of 14 Feb. Imagine if Percival was told first thing on Feb 15 that the invasion of Sumatra had been thwarted by a sea battle, and perhaps that these victorious ships were now shelling Japanese positions on Singapore? Would have have decided to surrender during the day, or would he have held out a day longer leading to a Japanese withdrawal?

The big problem with succes at Palembang is that ABDA was thwarted by Japanese airpower. Even if ABDA is reinforced with Force Z that doesn't make them impervious to the Japanese air units, as OTL shows. Besides that I have always considered the idea that the Japanese were totally out of supplies and close to defeat at Singapore to be a tad bit strange. The Japanese forces on Malaya were actually ahead of schedule. I can believe that they had outran their supply-lines but that would only mean that they would have to wait for those supply lines to reach them, not withdrawal or surrender needed. Is there any other source for this except for that one Japanese officer?
 
True. This is not unlike OTL though. It is also very likely that a follow up invasion takes Java anyway. Actually, if the invasion continues it might even be succesful. The question is, does it continue? Knock-on effects are guarenteed anyway though, as the invasion force isn't available for operations in Burma.



Doesn't match the PoD indeed ;) Things is, I'm not sure that Repulse and PoW would have been present at Java Sea. The attempt by the CSF was a desperate last-ditch attempt. It seems that the only person that thought it could be succesful was Helfrich, who even told Doorman to attack the Eastern Invasion Force after the Western one would be destroyed. Doorman himself knew he was not coming back and the governments of Britain and the US saw their ships that were part of the CSF as dispensable. Which, being mostly old and light units, they were. Force Z, on the other hand, was certainly not dispensable. These are capital ships. I find it highly unlikely that the Admiralty would just throw those units away instead of retreating them to Colombo to form the basis of the Eastern Fleet.

Even if Force Z is present that doesn't necessarily mean the CSF has a better chance at succes. In fact, it probably triggers that IJN to increase their covering force and at a couple of battleships.



The big problem with succes at Palembang is that ABDA was thwarted by Japanese airpower. Even if ABDA is reinforced with Force Z that doesn't make them impervious to the Japanese air units, as OTL shows. Besides that I have always considered the idea that the Japanese were totally out of supplies and close to defeat at Singapore to be a tad bit strange. The Japanese forces on Malaya were actually ahead of schedule. I can believe that they had outran their supply-lines but that would only mean that they would have to wait for those supply lines to reach them, not withdrawal or surrender needed. Is there any other source for this except for that one Japanese officer?

As I understand the Dutch and US ships were somewhat inferior in terms of age and/or experience. The Royal Navy was at best on a par with regards to its newer ships. Thus a slugging match under ideal circumstances is probably going to end up with substantial losses on either side which suggests that Japan could manage a second invasion at a later date as they have more escorts available in the theatre of operations.

Probably the only way to have a decisive engagement favouring the Allies is for some reason to have an undamaged Force Z catch the Japanese unaware, not easy as it relies on the Japanese not reinforcing the escorting force despite the threat. My view is that if Force Z is there than Japan would deploy fast battleships and carriers to the operation.

I have read a few accounts of War in the Pacific players getting the US carriers into play in that neck of the woods and coming out victorious. In that scenario you might well find the Japanese are actually blocked at Java, they might manage to take Sumatra and Singapore but after too many losses at sea and in the air they don’t have the ability to take Java. After mid 1942 time works against Japan, and without full control of the oil fields the industry in Japan will face real problems.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
As I understand the Dutch and US ships were somewhat inferior in terms of age and/or experience. The Royal Navy was at best on a par with regards to its newer ships. Thus a slugging match under ideal circumstances is probably going to end up with substantial losses on either side which suggests that Japan could manage a second invasion at a later date as they have more escorts available in the theatre of operations.

Probably the only way to have a decisive engagement favouring the Allies is for some reason to have an undamaged Force Z catch the Japanese unaware, not easy as it relies on the Japanese not reinforcing the escorting force despite the threat. My view is that if Force Z is there than Japan would deploy fast battleships and carriers to the operation.

I have read a few accounts of War in the Pacific players getting the US carriers into play in that neck of the woods and coming out victorious. In that scenario you might well find the Japanese are actually blocked at Java, they might manage to take Sumatra and Singapore but after too many losses at sea and in the air they don’t have the ability to take Java. After mid 1942 time works against Japan, and without full control of the oil fields the industry in Japan will face real problems.

Which is why this is a wank :) I realise that a Allied victory at Java Sea is quite improbable but I do think that with the changes I proposed it is not impossible. I'm mostly interested in what would be the immediate aftermath. I have read sources that said that Japanese were not as gun-ho in these kind of operations as is often though. Would they delay the operation until a new invasion fleet can be assembled? How long would that take?
 

Driftless

Donor
A more coordinated attack, integrating the Dutch submarines? That might even be as limited as having the subs take on the convoys while the surface fleets fight each other?
 
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