Graehame
Banned
What if, instead of trying to prop up the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire as part of their management of relations with the Slavic nationalities of the Balkans, the Austro-Hungarian Empire had foreseen c. 1908-1911 that the Ottoman Empire was failing, & had made it a cornerstone of their foreign policy to secure French neutrality in any future war between the Austro-Hungarian & Ottoman Empires?
The Great Powers had different relations with the Turks around the turn of the last century. Russia wanted access to the Mediterranean & had fought 11 wars vs the Turks going back to 1568, the most recent ending in 1878, so the 2 nations were confirmed foes. Russia also pursued a pan-Slavic foreign policy, thereby fomenting the establishment of the Balkan League as a vital tool vs its arch-rival, the Austro-Hungarian Empire. France had designs on the Turkish provinces of Lebanon & Syria, & so was willing to oppose the Turks; but didn't feel ready for a war vs Germany in 1912, & so took a negative position vs the 1st Balkan War, informing Russia that it wouldn't take part in any conflict between Russia & Austria-Hungary if it resulted from the actions of the Balkan League. Italy's main goal was the denial of access to the Med of any other major sea power-- either Turkish or Russian.
Britain, on the other hand, wanted to deny Russia access to the Med & therefore officially supported the Ottoman Empire, although it was willing to consider a limited expansion of Greece in the event that Turkish integrity was no longer possible. The British secretly encouraged the Greeks to join the League & encouraged Bulgarian aspirations towards Thrace, despite the assurances that Britain had given to Russia regarding Russian expansion in the region. Germany, under its "Drang nach Osten" policy, wanted to turn the Ottoman Empire into a de-facto colony, & thus officially supported it; but in her effort to entice Bulgaria to join the Central Powers, & watching Ottoman disintegration, was toying with the idea of replacing the Turks with a friendly Greater Bulgaria, ruled by a king of German origins & anti-Russian sentiments.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire officially wanted a continuation of the Ottoman Empire & a strong Turkish presence in the Balkans as a counterweight to Serbian nationalism, but the Habsburgs were realistic enough to know that the best route for the expansion of their Empire lay south, into the Turkish-held Balkans. At the same time they were leery of adding more Slavs to the restive Slavic population of the Empire. Serbia, whose unhealthy interest in Austrian-held Bosnia-Herzegovina was no secret, was considered an enemy & a Russian tool behind the unrest of Austria's Slavic subjects.
The Ottoman Empire at the turn of the century ruled most of the Balkans, including Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, & Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, Turkish weakness had been shown during the Graeco-Bulgarian Struggle for Macedonia (1904-1908), which ended in Greek control of Macedonia, & towards the end of which the Habsburgs had profited by annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina. On 5 Oct 1908 Turkish weakness appeared again in their inability to prevent the Bulgarian declaration of independence. During the Italo-Turkish War (29 Sep 1911-18 Oct 1912) Turkish weakness was once again evident in their defeat & the loss of Libya, the Dodecanese, &, on 28 Nov, Albania. The Habsburgs had been asked to mediate & help avoid this last war, but the Turks had refused their offers.
Historically these events seem to have caused little reflection at the Habsburg court, & the Habsburgs continued their support for the Turks-- but the Turks were the Muslim conquerors of Christian lands, with a terrible history of religious persecution towards their subjects; while the Habsburgs reigned over a Christian Empire. There was an opportunity here for the Habsburgs to profit from Turkish weakness by driving them entirely out of Europe-- to pose as the liberators of the Balkans, the sponsors of Bulgarian & Albanian independence, & the allies & guarantors of the Greeks. This would have initially been fine with Russia, France, & Italy. German neutrality could have been obtained by arguing that driving the Turks out of Europe could only weaken them, thus paving the way for them to become a German protectorate. British neutrality could have been obtained by arguing that the Turkish loss of Macedonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Libya, the Dodecanese, & Albania showed that Turkish integrity was no longer possible, & by concluding a secret agreement to continue the exclusion of the Russian fleet from the Med. These diplomatic moves by the Habsburgs would have taken place in the 1908-1911 timeframe prior to the 1st Balkan War (8 Oct 1912 thru 30 May 1913), after it became clear that the Turks faced the loss of all their Balkan provinces. These moves would therefore have been subsequent to the negotiation of the Franco-Russian Alliance (1894) the Entente Cordiale between France & Britain (1904), & the Anglo-Russian Entente of 1907. They would have preceded the network of treaties between Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, & Montenegro in the summer of 1912 that led to the formation of the Balkan League.
All of these diplomatic possibilties are realized in the person of Leopold Anton Graf Berchtold von und zu Ungarschitz, Frättling, und Püllütz, the Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Russia (1906-08), & the man who negotiated the agreement with Russia in 1908 that led to the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Recalled following this triumph on the death of Count Lexa von Aehrenthal on 5 Nov 1908, Graf Berchtold is appointed his successor, becoming at the age of 45 the youngest foreign minister in Europe. By 1909 he has persuaded the Emperor Franz Joseph of his policies, & by 1911 he's negotiated an informal understanding of neutrality with the French gov't.
The military planning to carry out the Graf Berchtold's plan falls to Lt. Gen. Alexander Freiherr von Krobatin, appointed Imperial Minister of War in 1912, an uninspiring 63 year-old who struggled with his admittedly complex duties; & Lt. Gen. Count Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, Chief of the Imperial General Staff, a brilliant 60 year-old strategist whose plans often exceeded the forces available to carry them out. These 2 would undoubtedly have lost the war had not Gen. Viktor Dankl, cdr of the 14th Corps, reccommended to von Hötzendorf the brilliant 51 year-old cdr of his 4th Inf Div, Lt. Gen. Rudolf Stöger-Steiner von Steinstätten, to serve as the new Chief of the Operations & Planning Dept. Von Steinstätten turns out to be exactly what von Hötzendorf needs-- capable of diplomatically pointing out the flaws in a too-ambitious plan, to supply its deficiencies, to pull together its complex details, & make it work.
And so, on 11 Dec 1912, the Austro-Hungarian Navy sails from its ports on the Adriatic to reinforce the Greek fleet in the Aegean with a fleet built around the new dreadnaught-class battleships SMS Tegetthoff & SMS Viribus Unitis. On 16 Dec, when the Turkish fleet attempts to sortie vs the Greeks in the naval Battle of Elli, the Turks (3 pre-dreadnaught battleships & 1 cruiser) are literally blown out of the water (Graeco-Austrian forces 5 battleships & 3 cruisers). The Turks have their cruiser & 2 destroyers sunk & 2 battleships severely damaged, but do little damage to the Graeco-Austrian fleet. For the rest of the war the Turkish fleet lurks in the shelter of their forts in the Dardanelles.
An armistice is negotiated on 3 Dec 1912, but on its expiration on 16 Feb 1913 hostilities recommence with Turkish raids & artillery attacks, culminating in a diversionary offensive along the Catalca Line (protecting the peninsula on which Constantinople is located) to distract attention from landings on the Sea of Marmara at Sarkoy on the 20th. The Austro-Hungarian Empire commits the 3 infantry corps of its 1st Army on the 17th, 8 divisions now under the command of Gen. Dankl, marching to the Sea of Marmara W of Constantinople, & therefore in position to engage the Turks in the vicinity of Sarkoy between the 20th & the 22d, when the Turks surrender. This action by the Austro-Hungarian Army enables the newly formed Bulgarian 4th Army to reinforce the 1st & 3d Armies along the Catalca Line, resulting in a decisive Turkish defeat there as well.
With Serbia & Bulgaria now concentrating their forces vs the isolated Turkish stronghold of Adrianople, & despite warnings from Russia that if Constantinople is attacked then Russia will intervene (a complete reversal of Russian policy, due to the fact that Russia had long cherished designs of its own vs Constantinople), Gen. Dankl's 1st Army at the end of Feb besieges Constantinople. On 11 Mar, in an operation timed to coincide with the final Serbo-Bulgarian assault on Adrianople, & attracted by the glittering prize so close at hand, the 1st Austro-Hungarian Army attacks Constantinople, triggering the Russo-Austrian War (in place of the First World War).
In this war the Austro-Hungarian Empire is the ally instead of the enemy of Serbia, but still the enemy of Russia, which is still allied with Britain & France. But however united Britain & France may have been on purely German & Balkan issues, their policies were divided where the future of the Ottoman Empire was concerned. While Britain declares war in fulfillment of its treaty obligations to Russia, France (after acrimonious debate in the Chamber of Deputies) notifies Russia & Britain that it is maintaining its neutrality-- secretly hoping for a collapse of the Ottoman Empire that will pave the way for French occupation of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. (The Franco-Russian Alliance was purely defensive in nature, obliging France to come to the aid of Russia only "if attacked by Germany, or by Austria supported by Germany", so France had no obligation to support a Russian attack vs Austria. Also, France had already occupied formerly Turkish Algeria in 1830 & formerly Turkish Tunisia in 1881, so its designs on the Middle East constituted a logical progression.) French neutrality denies to Britain the opportunity to open a second front vs the Austro-Hungarian Empire thru France, confining it essentially to naval ops vs an almost landlocked country. Britain begins bringing strong diplomatic & economic pressure to bear on France to bring about a reversal of policy.
So on 15 Mar 1913 Russia invades the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Germany, seeing the opportunity to expand its borders at the expense of Russia, & eventually a chance to pick up the pieces in Turkey, declares war on the 16th & invades Russia on the 18th. The Austro-Hungarian Empire, now with Serbo-Bulgarian assistance, defends its frontier with Russia while the German Army advances towards St. Petersburg, making rapid headway because of the concentration of Russian forces to the SE, & conducts a flanking operation vs Russian forces along the Austro-Hungarian border. On 26 Mar Adrianople falls, & on 31 March Constantinople. The Turks sue for peace & withdraw from Europe. As a condition of the cessation of hostilities the Ottoman Empire cedes Lebanon, Syria, & Palestine to France, which dispatches forces to assume control of its new colonies. The Austro-Hungarian & Serbo-Bulgarian Armies are now free to concentrate vs Russia. Also, although Italy did not join the Central Powers in WW1 because the Triple Alliance was a purely defensive coalition & the Central Powers had taken the offensive, in this Russo-Austrian War Russia attacks first, which activates the alliance & brings Italy in on the side of the Central Powers. Seriously outmatched by the German & Austro-Hungarian Empires, having lost its French & Balkan allies, with Italy now sending troops, & with Germany besieging St. Petersburg, Russia sues for peace by the end of May. Germany demands St. Petersburg as the price of peace, Russia refuses, & launches a northern offensive to break the siege.
Having rethought its priorities, & bowing to British pressures, on 3 Jun the French gov't sends notifications to London, Berlin, & Vienna that if hostilities vs Russia don't cease within 72 hours then France will declare war. By Jun 6 the Russian offensive is an obvious failure, & the Russian Imperial gov't-- still reeling from the 1905-07 Russian Revolution-- falls. As the bill for a declaration of war is being presented to the French Chamber of Deputies, a message arrives from Berlin that a cease-fire is in effect, all hostilities have ceased, & an armistice is being negotiated. The French gov't withdraws the bill pending clarification of the situation, & Britain withdraws from the war. Vladimir Lenin returns to Russia too late to become a major figure in the post-imperial realignment, & Aleksandr Kerenskiy is elected Prime Minister by the Russian Duma. He begins a series of modest socialist reforms that quickly undermine Lenin's appeal. By the end of the year, for the 3d time, Lenin flees the country to avoid arrest, going this time to the US, where he dies on 21 Jan 1924 at the age of 54, a respected professor of the Classical Greek language at Harvard University.
When Bulgaria, dissatisfied with the territorial divisions at the end of the First Balkan/Russo-Austrian War, provokes a war in mid-June 1913 with Serbia, Montenegro, & Greece, the Austro-Hungarian Empire faces a serious decision. To risk renewed hostilities with Russia &/or the Ottoman Empire is to risk everything gained in the recent war, but to fight vs the powerful armies of Bulgaria is to run the same risk. Also, Bulgaria is ruled by a king of German origins who happens to be the nephew of the Emperor Franz Joseph, & Germany is already flirting with a Bulgarian alliance. So instead, the Austro-Hungarian Empire first tries to mediate the dispute, & when that fails & Bulgaria attacks Serbia the Empire intervenes decisively by warning off the Ottoman Turks & the Russians & then occupying Montenegro from Bosnia-Herzegovina, using it as a corridor to invade Albania. Overrunning Albania within 2 weeks, the Austro-Hungarian Army then forces the Greeks into a dispersal of forces that prevents them from immediately recapturing Thessaloniki from Bulgaria. Putting its forces along the Graeco-Albanian frontier on the defensive, the Empire then sends its Army Group "A", under the command of Generaloberst Dankl, to invade Serbia, carving it up in cooperation with the Bulgarians. Russia, obsessed with internal problems, has no further interest in intervention; & while the Turks would like to, they realize that they haven't got the strength.
The 2d Balkan War ends in late July with the Austro-Hungarian Empire in occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, & the city & environs of Constantinople, while Serbia, Macedonia, & Thrace are shared roughly equally between the Empire & Bulgaria. Due to a Romanian mobilization for an intervention vs Bulgaria that never quite happened, Bulgaria insists on the partition of Rumania, & so in August Rumania is also divided between the Empire & Bulgaria.
The Empire of Greater Bulgaria was inaugurated on 2 Jan 1914, & a treaty of perpetual alliance was concluded on 31 Jan between the German, Austro-Hungarian, & Bulgarian Empires, & the Kingdom of Italy, bringing peace at last to the troubled Balkans. The Austro-Hungarian Empire continued to find ways to coexist with its multinational, multi-linguistic, multi-cultural peoples, & over time the contribution of the Empire to Balkan stability came to be appreciated.
Kaiser Wilhelm II reigned over Germany until he died of natural causes on 4 Jun 1941, at the age of 82. He was succeeded by his 59 year-old son, Wilhelm III.
The Tsar Ferdinand reigned over Bulgaria until he died of natural causes on 10 Sep 1948, at the age of 87. He was succeeded by his 11 year-old grandson, Simeon III, whose uncle Prince Philip of Saxe-Coburg & Gotha-- Ferdinand's older brother-- served as regent.
King Victor Emmanuel reigned over Italy until he died of natural causes on 28 Dec 1947, at the age of 78. He was succeeded by his 43 year-old son, Umberto II.
On 28 Jun 1914, during a state visit to Austro-Hungarian Serbia, the crown prince of Austria, Archduke Franz Ferdinand & his wife Sophie, were assassinated by Serbian terrorists. The problem was handled by the Empire as an internal police matter. On 21 Nov 1916 the Emperor Franz Josef died of natural causes at the age of 86 after a reign of nearly 68 years & was succeeded by the Archduke Karl Franz, who was 29 at the time of his coronation. The Emperor Karl I Franz reigned for 65 years, inaugurating a period of federalization under the Dual-- now Multiple-- Monarchy; granting to each component state of the Empire internal autonomy. During his long reign Karl I developed a deft touch that has rarely been equalled thruout history in keeping peace among the multinational peoples of his empire & persuading them to accept his reforms. He died in 1981 at the age of 94, but for the last 6 years of his reign he was represented by his son & regent, the Archduke Otto Robert. On the death of the Emperor Karl I, when the regent refused the throne on the grounds of advanced age (he was 69 at the time of his father's death), his 20 year-old son the Archduke Karl Thomas was crowned Emperor Karl II. The Emperor Saint Karl I was beatified in 2004 & canonized as a saint of the Catholic Church in 2012.
Crippled by the loss of its western territories to Germany, including St. Petersburg, Russia matured into a stable socialist agrarian democracy that never troubled the peace of the world. Having avoided defeat, the monarchies of central Europe never fell, but matured into stable constitutional monarchies more or less along the lines of Britain. Germany gained sufficient territory at the expense of Russia to satisfy its need for lebensraum, & never having suffered a crushing defeat in WW1, WW2 never happened.
The Great Powers had different relations with the Turks around the turn of the last century. Russia wanted access to the Mediterranean & had fought 11 wars vs the Turks going back to 1568, the most recent ending in 1878, so the 2 nations were confirmed foes. Russia also pursued a pan-Slavic foreign policy, thereby fomenting the establishment of the Balkan League as a vital tool vs its arch-rival, the Austro-Hungarian Empire. France had designs on the Turkish provinces of Lebanon & Syria, & so was willing to oppose the Turks; but didn't feel ready for a war vs Germany in 1912, & so took a negative position vs the 1st Balkan War, informing Russia that it wouldn't take part in any conflict between Russia & Austria-Hungary if it resulted from the actions of the Balkan League. Italy's main goal was the denial of access to the Med of any other major sea power-- either Turkish or Russian.
Britain, on the other hand, wanted to deny Russia access to the Med & therefore officially supported the Ottoman Empire, although it was willing to consider a limited expansion of Greece in the event that Turkish integrity was no longer possible. The British secretly encouraged the Greeks to join the League & encouraged Bulgarian aspirations towards Thrace, despite the assurances that Britain had given to Russia regarding Russian expansion in the region. Germany, under its "Drang nach Osten" policy, wanted to turn the Ottoman Empire into a de-facto colony, & thus officially supported it; but in her effort to entice Bulgaria to join the Central Powers, & watching Ottoman disintegration, was toying with the idea of replacing the Turks with a friendly Greater Bulgaria, ruled by a king of German origins & anti-Russian sentiments.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire officially wanted a continuation of the Ottoman Empire & a strong Turkish presence in the Balkans as a counterweight to Serbian nationalism, but the Habsburgs were realistic enough to know that the best route for the expansion of their Empire lay south, into the Turkish-held Balkans. At the same time they were leery of adding more Slavs to the restive Slavic population of the Empire. Serbia, whose unhealthy interest in Austrian-held Bosnia-Herzegovina was no secret, was considered an enemy & a Russian tool behind the unrest of Austria's Slavic subjects.
The Ottoman Empire at the turn of the century ruled most of the Balkans, including Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, & Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, Turkish weakness had been shown during the Graeco-Bulgarian Struggle for Macedonia (1904-1908), which ended in Greek control of Macedonia, & towards the end of which the Habsburgs had profited by annexing Bosnia-Herzegovina. On 5 Oct 1908 Turkish weakness appeared again in their inability to prevent the Bulgarian declaration of independence. During the Italo-Turkish War (29 Sep 1911-18 Oct 1912) Turkish weakness was once again evident in their defeat & the loss of Libya, the Dodecanese, &, on 28 Nov, Albania. The Habsburgs had been asked to mediate & help avoid this last war, but the Turks had refused their offers.
Historically these events seem to have caused little reflection at the Habsburg court, & the Habsburgs continued their support for the Turks-- but the Turks were the Muslim conquerors of Christian lands, with a terrible history of religious persecution towards their subjects; while the Habsburgs reigned over a Christian Empire. There was an opportunity here for the Habsburgs to profit from Turkish weakness by driving them entirely out of Europe-- to pose as the liberators of the Balkans, the sponsors of Bulgarian & Albanian independence, & the allies & guarantors of the Greeks. This would have initially been fine with Russia, France, & Italy. German neutrality could have been obtained by arguing that driving the Turks out of Europe could only weaken them, thus paving the way for them to become a German protectorate. British neutrality could have been obtained by arguing that the Turkish loss of Macedonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Libya, the Dodecanese, & Albania showed that Turkish integrity was no longer possible, & by concluding a secret agreement to continue the exclusion of the Russian fleet from the Med. These diplomatic moves by the Habsburgs would have taken place in the 1908-1911 timeframe prior to the 1st Balkan War (8 Oct 1912 thru 30 May 1913), after it became clear that the Turks faced the loss of all their Balkan provinces. These moves would therefore have been subsequent to the negotiation of the Franco-Russian Alliance (1894) the Entente Cordiale between France & Britain (1904), & the Anglo-Russian Entente of 1907. They would have preceded the network of treaties between Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, & Montenegro in the summer of 1912 that led to the formation of the Balkan League.
All of these diplomatic possibilties are realized in the person of Leopold Anton Graf Berchtold von und zu Ungarschitz, Frättling, und Püllütz, the Austro-Hungarian ambassador to Russia (1906-08), & the man who negotiated the agreement with Russia in 1908 that led to the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina. Recalled following this triumph on the death of Count Lexa von Aehrenthal on 5 Nov 1908, Graf Berchtold is appointed his successor, becoming at the age of 45 the youngest foreign minister in Europe. By 1909 he has persuaded the Emperor Franz Joseph of his policies, & by 1911 he's negotiated an informal understanding of neutrality with the French gov't.
The military planning to carry out the Graf Berchtold's plan falls to Lt. Gen. Alexander Freiherr von Krobatin, appointed Imperial Minister of War in 1912, an uninspiring 63 year-old who struggled with his admittedly complex duties; & Lt. Gen. Count Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, Chief of the Imperial General Staff, a brilliant 60 year-old strategist whose plans often exceeded the forces available to carry them out. These 2 would undoubtedly have lost the war had not Gen. Viktor Dankl, cdr of the 14th Corps, reccommended to von Hötzendorf the brilliant 51 year-old cdr of his 4th Inf Div, Lt. Gen. Rudolf Stöger-Steiner von Steinstätten, to serve as the new Chief of the Operations & Planning Dept. Von Steinstätten turns out to be exactly what von Hötzendorf needs-- capable of diplomatically pointing out the flaws in a too-ambitious plan, to supply its deficiencies, to pull together its complex details, & make it work.
And so, on 11 Dec 1912, the Austro-Hungarian Navy sails from its ports on the Adriatic to reinforce the Greek fleet in the Aegean with a fleet built around the new dreadnaught-class battleships SMS Tegetthoff & SMS Viribus Unitis. On 16 Dec, when the Turkish fleet attempts to sortie vs the Greeks in the naval Battle of Elli, the Turks (3 pre-dreadnaught battleships & 1 cruiser) are literally blown out of the water (Graeco-Austrian forces 5 battleships & 3 cruisers). The Turks have their cruiser & 2 destroyers sunk & 2 battleships severely damaged, but do little damage to the Graeco-Austrian fleet. For the rest of the war the Turkish fleet lurks in the shelter of their forts in the Dardanelles.
An armistice is negotiated on 3 Dec 1912, but on its expiration on 16 Feb 1913 hostilities recommence with Turkish raids & artillery attacks, culminating in a diversionary offensive along the Catalca Line (protecting the peninsula on which Constantinople is located) to distract attention from landings on the Sea of Marmara at Sarkoy on the 20th. The Austro-Hungarian Empire commits the 3 infantry corps of its 1st Army on the 17th, 8 divisions now under the command of Gen. Dankl, marching to the Sea of Marmara W of Constantinople, & therefore in position to engage the Turks in the vicinity of Sarkoy between the 20th & the 22d, when the Turks surrender. This action by the Austro-Hungarian Army enables the newly formed Bulgarian 4th Army to reinforce the 1st & 3d Armies along the Catalca Line, resulting in a decisive Turkish defeat there as well.
With Serbia & Bulgaria now concentrating their forces vs the isolated Turkish stronghold of Adrianople, & despite warnings from Russia that if Constantinople is attacked then Russia will intervene (a complete reversal of Russian policy, due to the fact that Russia had long cherished designs of its own vs Constantinople), Gen. Dankl's 1st Army at the end of Feb besieges Constantinople. On 11 Mar, in an operation timed to coincide with the final Serbo-Bulgarian assault on Adrianople, & attracted by the glittering prize so close at hand, the 1st Austro-Hungarian Army attacks Constantinople, triggering the Russo-Austrian War (in place of the First World War).
In this war the Austro-Hungarian Empire is the ally instead of the enemy of Serbia, but still the enemy of Russia, which is still allied with Britain & France. But however united Britain & France may have been on purely German & Balkan issues, their policies were divided where the future of the Ottoman Empire was concerned. While Britain declares war in fulfillment of its treaty obligations to Russia, France (after acrimonious debate in the Chamber of Deputies) notifies Russia & Britain that it is maintaining its neutrality-- secretly hoping for a collapse of the Ottoman Empire that will pave the way for French occupation of Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine. (The Franco-Russian Alliance was purely defensive in nature, obliging France to come to the aid of Russia only "if attacked by Germany, or by Austria supported by Germany", so France had no obligation to support a Russian attack vs Austria. Also, France had already occupied formerly Turkish Algeria in 1830 & formerly Turkish Tunisia in 1881, so its designs on the Middle East constituted a logical progression.) French neutrality denies to Britain the opportunity to open a second front vs the Austro-Hungarian Empire thru France, confining it essentially to naval ops vs an almost landlocked country. Britain begins bringing strong diplomatic & economic pressure to bear on France to bring about a reversal of policy.
So on 15 Mar 1913 Russia invades the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Germany, seeing the opportunity to expand its borders at the expense of Russia, & eventually a chance to pick up the pieces in Turkey, declares war on the 16th & invades Russia on the 18th. The Austro-Hungarian Empire, now with Serbo-Bulgarian assistance, defends its frontier with Russia while the German Army advances towards St. Petersburg, making rapid headway because of the concentration of Russian forces to the SE, & conducts a flanking operation vs Russian forces along the Austro-Hungarian border. On 26 Mar Adrianople falls, & on 31 March Constantinople. The Turks sue for peace & withdraw from Europe. As a condition of the cessation of hostilities the Ottoman Empire cedes Lebanon, Syria, & Palestine to France, which dispatches forces to assume control of its new colonies. The Austro-Hungarian & Serbo-Bulgarian Armies are now free to concentrate vs Russia. Also, although Italy did not join the Central Powers in WW1 because the Triple Alliance was a purely defensive coalition & the Central Powers had taken the offensive, in this Russo-Austrian War Russia attacks first, which activates the alliance & brings Italy in on the side of the Central Powers. Seriously outmatched by the German & Austro-Hungarian Empires, having lost its French & Balkan allies, with Italy now sending troops, & with Germany besieging St. Petersburg, Russia sues for peace by the end of May. Germany demands St. Petersburg as the price of peace, Russia refuses, & launches a northern offensive to break the siege.
Having rethought its priorities, & bowing to British pressures, on 3 Jun the French gov't sends notifications to London, Berlin, & Vienna that if hostilities vs Russia don't cease within 72 hours then France will declare war. By Jun 6 the Russian offensive is an obvious failure, & the Russian Imperial gov't-- still reeling from the 1905-07 Russian Revolution-- falls. As the bill for a declaration of war is being presented to the French Chamber of Deputies, a message arrives from Berlin that a cease-fire is in effect, all hostilities have ceased, & an armistice is being negotiated. The French gov't withdraws the bill pending clarification of the situation, & Britain withdraws from the war. Vladimir Lenin returns to Russia too late to become a major figure in the post-imperial realignment, & Aleksandr Kerenskiy is elected Prime Minister by the Russian Duma. He begins a series of modest socialist reforms that quickly undermine Lenin's appeal. By the end of the year, for the 3d time, Lenin flees the country to avoid arrest, going this time to the US, where he dies on 21 Jan 1924 at the age of 54, a respected professor of the Classical Greek language at Harvard University.
When Bulgaria, dissatisfied with the territorial divisions at the end of the First Balkan/Russo-Austrian War, provokes a war in mid-June 1913 with Serbia, Montenegro, & Greece, the Austro-Hungarian Empire faces a serious decision. To risk renewed hostilities with Russia &/or the Ottoman Empire is to risk everything gained in the recent war, but to fight vs the powerful armies of Bulgaria is to run the same risk. Also, Bulgaria is ruled by a king of German origins who happens to be the nephew of the Emperor Franz Joseph, & Germany is already flirting with a Bulgarian alliance. So instead, the Austro-Hungarian Empire first tries to mediate the dispute, & when that fails & Bulgaria attacks Serbia the Empire intervenes decisively by warning off the Ottoman Turks & the Russians & then occupying Montenegro from Bosnia-Herzegovina, using it as a corridor to invade Albania. Overrunning Albania within 2 weeks, the Austro-Hungarian Army then forces the Greeks into a dispersal of forces that prevents them from immediately recapturing Thessaloniki from Bulgaria. Putting its forces along the Graeco-Albanian frontier on the defensive, the Empire then sends its Army Group "A", under the command of Generaloberst Dankl, to invade Serbia, carving it up in cooperation with the Bulgarians. Russia, obsessed with internal problems, has no further interest in intervention; & while the Turks would like to, they realize that they haven't got the strength.
The 2d Balkan War ends in late July with the Austro-Hungarian Empire in occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, & the city & environs of Constantinople, while Serbia, Macedonia, & Thrace are shared roughly equally between the Empire & Bulgaria. Due to a Romanian mobilization for an intervention vs Bulgaria that never quite happened, Bulgaria insists on the partition of Rumania, & so in August Rumania is also divided between the Empire & Bulgaria.
The Empire of Greater Bulgaria was inaugurated on 2 Jan 1914, & a treaty of perpetual alliance was concluded on 31 Jan between the German, Austro-Hungarian, & Bulgarian Empires, & the Kingdom of Italy, bringing peace at last to the troubled Balkans. The Austro-Hungarian Empire continued to find ways to coexist with its multinational, multi-linguistic, multi-cultural peoples, & over time the contribution of the Empire to Balkan stability came to be appreciated.
Kaiser Wilhelm II reigned over Germany until he died of natural causes on 4 Jun 1941, at the age of 82. He was succeeded by his 59 year-old son, Wilhelm III.
The Tsar Ferdinand reigned over Bulgaria until he died of natural causes on 10 Sep 1948, at the age of 87. He was succeeded by his 11 year-old grandson, Simeon III, whose uncle Prince Philip of Saxe-Coburg & Gotha-- Ferdinand's older brother-- served as regent.
King Victor Emmanuel reigned over Italy until he died of natural causes on 28 Dec 1947, at the age of 78. He was succeeded by his 43 year-old son, Umberto II.
On 28 Jun 1914, during a state visit to Austro-Hungarian Serbia, the crown prince of Austria, Archduke Franz Ferdinand & his wife Sophie, were assassinated by Serbian terrorists. The problem was handled by the Empire as an internal police matter. On 21 Nov 1916 the Emperor Franz Josef died of natural causes at the age of 86 after a reign of nearly 68 years & was succeeded by the Archduke Karl Franz, who was 29 at the time of his coronation. The Emperor Karl I Franz reigned for 65 years, inaugurating a period of federalization under the Dual-- now Multiple-- Monarchy; granting to each component state of the Empire internal autonomy. During his long reign Karl I developed a deft touch that has rarely been equalled thruout history in keeping peace among the multinational peoples of his empire & persuading them to accept his reforms. He died in 1981 at the age of 94, but for the last 6 years of his reign he was represented by his son & regent, the Archduke Otto Robert. On the death of the Emperor Karl I, when the regent refused the throne on the grounds of advanced age (he was 69 at the time of his father's death), his 20 year-old son the Archduke Karl Thomas was crowned Emperor Karl II. The Emperor Saint Karl I was beatified in 2004 & canonized as a saint of the Catholic Church in 2012.
Crippled by the loss of its western territories to Germany, including St. Petersburg, Russia matured into a stable socialist agrarian democracy that never troubled the peace of the world. Having avoided defeat, the monarchies of central Europe never fell, but matured into stable constitutional monarchies more or less along the lines of Britain. Germany gained sufficient territory at the expense of Russia to satisfy its need for lebensraum, & never having suffered a crushing defeat in WW1, WW2 never happened.
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