Making the Second World war worse...
I'm not talking so much about macro things, as a succession of smaller events that could have gone differently, and in so doing would make things more difficult for the Allies
For example, how about we give the Germans better torpedoes off Norway, change nothing else but that ? Is there any way that would backfire on them ? Apart from greater Allied naval losses, would it change anything ? Would it prevent Narvik for example in any way ? I don't think it would, but let's ask
Could it make Churchill less of an obvious choice to replace Chamberlain, seeing how his brainwave of the Norwegian front has now cost the RN some serious losses ? I don''t think it would derail his succession, regardless of what the king wants, but it would mean Churchill comes in weaker with a stronger body of opinion against him. Things will be harder for him
Taking a step further back, have the Graf Spee decide to fight it out - sure, it will lose, but it retains its honour and may take one of the British cruisers with it
I am in two minds about what to do with regard to the Battle of France. Michele makes some good arguments against the panzers at Dunkirk, but it DOES remain the case that MORE could have been achieved by the Germans. They had momentum, they had the spirit, they were pushing on and on. To halt and wait was against how they had achieved everything up to that date. If one took the doctrinaire approach and said that balance of probabilities determines outcome, then one would never have had Rommel cross the river on the frontier in the first place. No, I think that the panzers could have kept on pressing, and whilst there would be losses, they would inflict equal or more. The Luftwaffe would be better off supporting an offensive, rather than wasting its dive bombers on the beaches. Sure, since this is the MAIN rearguard of the British army they will turn Heaven and Earth to get them out, but perhaps 50% more could have fallen into German hands had the attack been pressed
Now, people will say that the German losses are going to hamstring their future operations, but are they ? Aren't we talking Panzer IIIs here, at best ? Veteran crews only ever become so because they survive - its not a pre-battle label. People dismissed as irrelevant in the long-run any possible losses from a failed Sealion in another thread, despite the fact that this would be a loss of elite and veteran forces on a much greater scale. I don't think greater losses before Dunkirk would greatly hamper the German Army
Now, one curious thing about the end days of the Battle of France is that Churchill was flying off to see Reynard on several occasions, taking senior members of his government with him, all in the same plane, and at least once their flight and escort came under attack from Me-109s. Shooting them all down, tho, does seem rather a too convenient outcome for this thread, but they could have been shot UP - the aircraft badly damaged, someone such as Simon or Attlee killed, the others injured to various degrees. What the longterm outcome of this would have been is an interesting question
Maybe Churchill has to appoint a new Deputy PM if Attlee is killed, and meets for the last time with Reynard with his arm in a sling from the bullet wound to it ? Interestingly, and a sign of how the randomness of time goes, this ATL event could help to undo and overcome the aftereffects of the ATL event of a worse Norwegian defeat. Churchill, wounded, is taken to heart
Thus, the Battle of Britain opens with a different background. Attlee is dead, and perhaps whats-his-name is officially Labour leader and now Deputy PM (someone who I only vaguely knew of before, he held various top-level positions during the Nat Gov era and after...Greenwood ?). Churchill wounded, presides over a country shocked at the losses in France, and with only around 150,000 evacuated from Dunkirk.
What to do about the Battle of Britain ? I am thinking that there can be a combination of better and the same here - the Luftwaffe smashes the radar and sector stations, but Hitler still gives the order to bomb the cities (since the RAF bombing of Berlin was an attempt to achieve a break in the German attack on strategic assets). Possibly therefore, the BoB goes on longer, sees a more desperate struggle, but in the end is halted by Winter, rather than any idea of victory. Britain gets survival, not victory, out of it.
Now, with less forces available after Dunkirk, it seems likely that the British fightback in N Africa will severely stall, and that Germany will not have to commit such effort as it did in OTL. Intriguingly, if Italy feels itself in the driving seat of this campaign, will Mussolini bother with Greece ? Might he not simply continue to pour in resources aiming at Egypt ?
Without a Greek sideshow, Yugoslavia is unlikely to blow up, and German forces not need to be diverted to the Balkans. Barbarossa goes off on schedule, and with the added difference of Rommel having a frontline Russian command.
Looking to simply echo on, the German plans won't be changed, only some of their outcomes. Moscow will fall, given extra pre-winter campaign time. The Winter line will thus be more securely anchored, and with the Soviets in the midst of a morale collapse and relocation, the Winter of 1941 will be much better than OTL for the Germans. There is the question of Italian participation - if the Egyptian offensive is slowly grinding out results, and there has been no Greek debacle, might not the Italian forces on the Russian front be both stronger and of better morale than OTL ?
1942, and of course war has come to the Pacific. In Europe, Britain's priority HAS to be to hold Egypt, and whatever forces can be spared will be routed there. The Italian-led attack could well fail at this juncture - necessitating aid from Germany at a time when Germany is already deep within the USSR. Interestingly, if Hitler does send an Afrika Corps, it will more likely be headed by Kesselring, and thus have a unified command structure. Perhaps a second-level general such as Bismarck or Mackensen commands on the ground, but everyone will know that Kesselring is in control
Unlike Rommel, Kesselring believed in making the enemy pay for every inch in a retreat, seeing value in a prolonged delaying action where Rommel only saw the putting off the inevitable. Thus, in Italy, Rommel wanted to withdraw immediately to Lombardy, Kesselring insisted on fighting for each defensive line as hard as possible. In N Africa in OTL, once forced onto the defensive, Rommel retreated to the Tunisian border, abandoning Tripoli - sure, he fought a MASTERFUL retreat, but his aim was only to get there with as many of his forces intact as possible. If forced into a similar retreat, Kesselring will fight for each defensive line in turn, and this will make the war more palatable in Italy (no abandonment of Libya or Tripoli) and make Italian reinforcements have a greater will
1942 with Moscow already in German hands is going to have very different strategic goals than OTL. Some of it will be defence of what they already hold, some of it will be to press on towards other goals - one wonders what would happen to the Caucasus campaign if Rommel is commanding an army ? He's going to take the risks of getting cut off, is going to push his forces ever on, and could thus achieve Grozny with support units trailing in behind him, and Luftwaffe flights across the Black Sea his only immediate means of resupply and communication. At Grozny he intersects one of the main Russian pipelines, and thus achieves a partial goal. Baku beckons, but Stalin has not gone to sleep
One thing to say is that in OTL when it looked as if Baku MIGHT fall, the USSR dismantled a large part of the operation there, shipped it across the Caspian and reassembled it in Turkmenistan. This is going to happen here, of course. Regardless of where Stalin and his government have ended up, they can control events to a sufficient degree that if the Germans take Baku they will have to rebuild it themselves
OTL Stalingrad was a mixture of a German flanking manoevre and a Russian counter-attack. In this timeline, the Italians are stronger and of better morale, whilst the Russians are weaker through continued defeats and a greater struggle to assemble their resources. I don't see Stalingrad becoming the German killing zone of OTL, but its going to be a hard-fought battle. And will probably stall German offensives in the South
The exception to that will be Baku - the Germans will take it, but in immediate terms all they get is a blazing ruin. Whether they can commit sufficient resources and time to rebuilding and extracting oil will depend on events elsewhere
As 1942 comes to an end, Kesselring is probably defending Tobruk and associated defensive lines against a British/Imperial counter-attack. Rommel is flying home on leave from Baku to celebrate Christmas with his family. And Paulus is secure in Stalingrad but having his ear bent by the Fuhrer as to why he hasn't advanced his front North and East as was originally planned
1943 will presumably still see the first major US commitment to the European front, with a Torch analogue. But unlike OTL there is no Montgomery bashing at S Tunisia - if he is indeed the commander, he is still stuck fighting Kesselring in Eastern and Central Libya.
I was wondering about the fallschirmjaeger - they have not seen their OTL mauling upon Crete here. Maybe Malta would get the go-ahead, as a means to relieve the pressure on Kesselring's position ? On the surface, 1943 may seem rather late for that but ATL's develop an internal momentum of their own. We could thus see the Luftwaffe and paratroops take Malta, but a US versus Italy naval battle result in US forces defeating the Italian fleet off NW Africa
Thus, in N Italy, if we posit von Arnim in command, he has a theatre command, presumably again under Kesselring's overall control, and holds Malta so that supplies in the immediate term are assured. But things could actually go WORSE for the Germans - without a Rommel there would be no Kasserine Pass, and the various US armies will be converging on von Arnim's defensive positions, facing only limited opposition rather than a unified grasp of the situation
In the USSR, the main German objectives are probably Leningrad, Nizhny Novgorod (yeah, I know it has a different Soviet name, but I forgot what it is !) and Astrakhan. One could certainly imagine a concentration on the first of these, the need to delete the longest-landing thorn in the side, and achieve a proper unification with the Finns.
Given that the Soviet government is probably now East of the Urals, it seems to me as if their offensive focus would be in the South rather than in the centre, and thus Paulus will find himself fighting a mobile enemy determined not to let Astrakhan fall into German hands. Thus, the centre probably takes Nizhny Novgorod more easily than they had envisaged, whilst in the North horrendous losses are taken, but eventually Leningrad is German. The strain of this battle will no doubt drag forces away from other theatres, or most especially reroute reinforcements to the North away from them. Paulus could thus find himself defeated before Astrakhan whilst leading an army that is fifty percent Italian or Rumanian
1943 could thus end with :-
- - German forces in control of Leningrad tho at ruinous cost
- - German forces in control of Nizhny Novgorod
- - German forces with 50% Italian and Rumanian defeated before Astrakhan
- - Kesselring defending a line East of Tripoli against British and Imperial forces
- - Malta in German hands
- - von Arnim facing several US armies closing in on his positions in Tunisia
At the same time, the RAF and USAAF raids on Germany are becoming devastating. We could return to the "small changes" of the title by allowing greater German success to have some benefits in home defence, and allowing the Focke-Achgelis factory to survive, and Peenemunde not to get hit the first time it did
Thus as 1944 dawns, Germany has a fleet of transport helicopters completing and deploying, and on the other hand has the prototype V-1 produced and ready for use
This Second Blitz begins earlier than OTL and with greater intensity, if no greater increase in accuracy. The helicopters would be used in N Africa and in Russia. Interestingly, in OTL, what helicopters there were were used often in Yugoslavia against the Partisans, but here the monarchy has held on, agreed a vague accession to the Axis (akin to Bulgaria's) and thus Germany is spared the drain on forces that OTL Yugoslavia was. .
Thus, Germany can afford to pour in reinforcements to Tunisia in 1944. It might be of interest to consider who would get the command ? Von Arnim would be viewed as commander of his own army, but with someone else parachuted in over him. I'm wondering if Himmler could pull it for the Waffen - SS ? So far, in this timeline, they have mainly and soley fought in Russia, and as such will continue to be seen as secondary to the army command. Wanting to prove their worth to Hitler, and seeing an opportunity to take control SOMEWHERE, Himmler could get the Fuhrer's backing to send in Dietrich and leading Waffen SS formations to co-ordinate and control the fight-back in Tunisia
I also don't see Rommel sitting around Baku in an administrative role, at least not for long. If Paulus is defeated before Astrakhan, and 1944 opens with a potential Soviet counter-attack, I could see Rommel being sent North to take command, and rectify the situation. Paulus could easily be shuffled into an important administrative job somewhere, eg at Stalingrad which would be a transport hub.
Rommel would be bolstered by all the new technology coming online - he won't get the V-1 which is bombarding Britain earlier and heavier than OTL, but he will get the helicopters and the jet aircraft. Hitler will have labelled him his favourite in no uncertain terms, and the man who gave Hitler Baku can do no wrong. He will have first call on innovations such as the King Tiger and the newest self-propelled guns. His remit is to turn a defensive position into an attack, and take Astrakhan
1944 could thus see a major blooding of the US army in Europe as it fights back against the Waffen SS -led defence of Tunisia. Luftwaffe jets give the Germans sufficient control of the skies to mean that the thin fabric of the supply line from Italy via Malta to Tunisia holds.
With this situation, and with Britain's main focus on the slow and costly advance in Libya, 1944 will see nothing beyond dreams of any landing in mainland Europe. Kesselring is being slowly driven back, but his forces always make a good account of themselves, and a goodly number of Italian units have fought their way to veteran status under his command. Rome remains committed to the alliance with Berlin, and hopes in both capitals continue to be of an eventual victory
Later 1944 sees the barrage of V-2s descend on London, and cause panic. In OTL this was close, and only government lies (gas explosion etc) and advances and raids on launch sites prevented it. Here, Britain is not engaged on the continent, and the Luftwaffe is more effective than OTL. There is no need for V-2 barrages on Antwerp etc, which remain German, so more missiles available also. London sees a general panic and flight, and Churchill's government is forced to put into place measures to accommodate this, since attempting to retard it is correctly seen as a lost cause
Thus, whilst RAF and USAAF bomber fleets pound Berlin and other German cities, the Germans are able to hit back hard against Britain, and by other means let them know exactly how it feels
Summer 1944 would thus see Rommel make full use of technology and his allies, and take Astrakhan after a mobile and chaotic battle (his forte). Away in the Soviet headquarters, East of the Urals, Stalin is quietly "heart-attacked" and Molotov, with Beria behind him, takes power.
1944 also sees FDR elected to an unprecedented fourth term as President of the USA. The Pacific War has only seen small butterflies, but the European scene is wildly different from OTL. US forces are mainly in action in Tunisia, against Waffen SS-led German defenders, whilst the USAAF is bombing Germany from out of Britain. He decides to redirect some naval resources from the Pacific to the Med (which makes perfect sense)
We are now approaching 1945 with Nazi Germany's Fortress Europe still intact. In fact, in the USSR, German forces continue to be on the advance more than they are on the retreat
One wonders whether the US redeployment of naval forces from the Pacific would have any real reciprocal impact ? Its after Leyte Gulf so if anything it might delay slightly Okinawa, Iwo Jima, Saipan etc, but with Japanese naval assets virtually irrelevant not have a great impact
Thus, 1945 would see say three modern US aircraft carriers with support ships enter the Med. Whilst Dietrich continues to defeat all US attempts to prise him loose from his defensive positions in Tunisia, the USN goes onto the offensive, blasts Malta, and destroys the remains of the Italian battlefleet. They follow this up with a descent upon Malta, including airborne USAAF units, and many disasters which are turned into lessons to be learned
With USN forces sitting astride their line of communications, both Dietrich in Tunis, and Kesselring in Tripoli are facing the threat of having their forces marooned on the one hand, and cut off completely from supplies on the other
Meanwhile Rommel is killed in action (balance of probabilities) leading his forces from Astrakhan NW towards where the Soviets are massing for a counter-strike.
At sea, it also needs to be noted that the Walther submarine, snorket etc, is in full deployment in the Battle of the Atlantic, but that experience has shown that whatever the attackers do, the defenders counter within a matter of months, so whilst the losses of Allied ships sharply rises, no one expects it to remain a problem for long
With Japan collapsing, both the USA and Britain pour massive forces into the African fronts, with US forces also coming up through Egypt on the one hand, whilst British units come through Algiers to fight alongside the US on the other. Kesselring abandons Tripoli and retreats West to unite his forces with von Arnim and Dietrich's in an overall defensive posture. But USAAF flights from both Algiers and Egypt are blasting German positions, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to hold them
Molotov sends Zhukov in person to oversee the counter-offensive against Astrakhan, and the city is soon besieged, with a battle raging around it
The Tehran Summit sees Molotov, Roosevelt and Churchill meet for the only time. Within a month, Molotov will have defeated a coup attempt by Beria and overseen his execution, Roosevelt will be dead, and Churchill voted out of office
Kesselring and Dietrich agree that further defence of N Africa is impossible and agree a schedule to fly out their best units. USAAF attacks make this increasingly difficult, whilst US Navy forces attack Sicily and prevent it being used as a fallback base. In early Summer 1945, von Arnim is forced to surrender the remains of two German and allied armies to the American-led Allies
Stalingrad falls mid-Summer, and Himmler gets Dietrich (evacuated by aircraft from N Africa) deployed with full theatre control.
Soviet armies are also closing in on Nizhny Novgorod, whilst US airforce units, given permission by Molotov, are operating out of Soviet airbases, and blasting at Germany's Eastern defences
Kesselring takes command of Italy as US, British, Free French and Free Polish forces land en masse supported by naval and aerial control. By using the terrain, and the units available to him, to best advantage, Kesselring is able to delay the fall of Rome until he has withdrawn all forces, and to create a new defensive line N of Rome
Dietrich is able to stabilise the front at Stalingrad
US forces prepare for the invasion of the Japanese home islands
- - -
If one takes the USA as having one plus one potential nuclear bombs in mid 1945 it seems unlikely in this scenario that they would use them against Japan. Sure, an invasion of the Japanese home islands would cost perhaps a couple of hundred thousand US lives, but compared to any direct attack on Nazi Europe this is bound to be on the low side.
Thus, Summer/Autumn 1945 sees the US invasion of Japan on the one hand, and USAAF raids on Fortress Europe on the other
V-2s continue to pound London and Southern British cities
Soviet forces close in on Moscow, whilst Dietrich holds Stalingrad
USAAF bombers drop a nuclear bomb on Essen
- - -
Hitler suffers a breakdown
Goering is in seclusion and hedony
Himmler, Goebbels, Speer and Bormann face off in a melee of uncertain alliances
With the Fuhrer unable to communicate, and Truman in Washington demanding an answer, Speer meets with army commanders to consider a coup, hoping thereby to create the impression of a new government, needing time and generosity
In the East, the Battle of Moscow begins, with Molotov ordering an all-out attack
US and Allied forces continue to press slowly Northwards up the Italian peninsular
With no clear outcome signalled, two weeks later USAAF bombers drop a nuclear bomb on Magdeburg
Himmler, Goebbels and Speer see to the extermination of Bormann, and the final "rest" of the Fuhrer
Hitler's roles as per OTL are split with Speer becoming President and Goebbels Chancellor
Moscow falls, and Russian armies are on the advance on N, Central and S fronts
- - -
Late 1945 sees Himmler, Dietrich and Waffen SS commanders meet at Rostov to agree a counter-offensive. Many say it is insanity, but with the imminent collapse of the front it is the only idea feasible. With all resources prioritising the S Front, Winter 1945-46 sees the Soviets halted and thrown back
BUT Spring 1946 sees US and Allied landings in Southern France, attacked vigorously but supported by the well-established and strong USAAF N African units, and by increasing units of the USN sent from the Pacific
1946 sees increasing nervousness within the German political command as it becomes obvious that the USA will complete and ready a third nuclear bomb well before Germany can even approach one
The bloody and costly invasion of the Japanese home islands drags on, as does the slow slog up the Italian peninsular, and the breakout from S France
Zhukov is defeated and killed before Stalingard but it is too little too late as the Moscow front collapses, and US -supported offensives blossom across the fronts
- - -
With no end in sight, V-2s raining down on S Britain, stalemate in Italy and at Stalingrad, and S France bogged down, the Allied command authorise all methods to bring the war to an end
Essen and Magdeburg have already been nuked
The USAAF flies interference, allowing a bomber to nuke Berlin
Goebbels is killed - Speer is in the Harz, Himmler is at Wawelsberg
German resistance continues as Summer 1946 arrives
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
I'm not talking so much about macro things, as a succession of smaller events that could have gone differently, and in so doing would make things more difficult for the Allies
For example, how about we give the Germans better torpedoes off Norway, change nothing else but that ? Is there any way that would backfire on them ? Apart from greater Allied naval losses, would it change anything ? Would it prevent Narvik for example in any way ? I don't think it would, but let's ask
Could it make Churchill less of an obvious choice to replace Chamberlain, seeing how his brainwave of the Norwegian front has now cost the RN some serious losses ? I don''t think it would derail his succession, regardless of what the king wants, but it would mean Churchill comes in weaker with a stronger body of opinion against him. Things will be harder for him
Taking a step further back, have the Graf Spee decide to fight it out - sure, it will lose, but it retains its honour and may take one of the British cruisers with it
I am in two minds about what to do with regard to the Battle of France. Michele makes some good arguments against the panzers at Dunkirk, but it DOES remain the case that MORE could have been achieved by the Germans. They had momentum, they had the spirit, they were pushing on and on. To halt and wait was against how they had achieved everything up to that date. If one took the doctrinaire approach and said that balance of probabilities determines outcome, then one would never have had Rommel cross the river on the frontier in the first place. No, I think that the panzers could have kept on pressing, and whilst there would be losses, they would inflict equal or more. The Luftwaffe would be better off supporting an offensive, rather than wasting its dive bombers on the beaches. Sure, since this is the MAIN rearguard of the British army they will turn Heaven and Earth to get them out, but perhaps 50% more could have fallen into German hands had the attack been pressed
Now, people will say that the German losses are going to hamstring their future operations, but are they ? Aren't we talking Panzer IIIs here, at best ? Veteran crews only ever become so because they survive - its not a pre-battle label. People dismissed as irrelevant in the long-run any possible losses from a failed Sealion in another thread, despite the fact that this would be a loss of elite and veteran forces on a much greater scale. I don't think greater losses before Dunkirk would greatly hamper the German Army
Now, one curious thing about the end days of the Battle of France is that Churchill was flying off to see Reynard on several occasions, taking senior members of his government with him, all in the same plane, and at least once their flight and escort came under attack from Me-109s. Shooting them all down, tho, does seem rather a too convenient outcome for this thread, but they could have been shot UP - the aircraft badly damaged, someone such as Simon or Attlee killed, the others injured to various degrees. What the longterm outcome of this would have been is an interesting question
Maybe Churchill has to appoint a new Deputy PM if Attlee is killed, and meets for the last time with Reynard with his arm in a sling from the bullet wound to it ? Interestingly, and a sign of how the randomness of time goes, this ATL event could help to undo and overcome the aftereffects of the ATL event of a worse Norwegian defeat. Churchill, wounded, is taken to heart
Thus, the Battle of Britain opens with a different background. Attlee is dead, and perhaps whats-his-name is officially Labour leader and now Deputy PM (someone who I only vaguely knew of before, he held various top-level positions during the Nat Gov era and after...Greenwood ?). Churchill wounded, presides over a country shocked at the losses in France, and with only around 150,000 evacuated from Dunkirk.
What to do about the Battle of Britain ? I am thinking that there can be a combination of better and the same here - the Luftwaffe smashes the radar and sector stations, but Hitler still gives the order to bomb the cities (since the RAF bombing of Berlin was an attempt to achieve a break in the German attack on strategic assets). Possibly therefore, the BoB goes on longer, sees a more desperate struggle, but in the end is halted by Winter, rather than any idea of victory. Britain gets survival, not victory, out of it.
Now, with less forces available after Dunkirk, it seems likely that the British fightback in N Africa will severely stall, and that Germany will not have to commit such effort as it did in OTL. Intriguingly, if Italy feels itself in the driving seat of this campaign, will Mussolini bother with Greece ? Might he not simply continue to pour in resources aiming at Egypt ?
Without a Greek sideshow, Yugoslavia is unlikely to blow up, and German forces not need to be diverted to the Balkans. Barbarossa goes off on schedule, and with the added difference of Rommel having a frontline Russian command.
Looking to simply echo on, the German plans won't be changed, only some of their outcomes. Moscow will fall, given extra pre-winter campaign time. The Winter line will thus be more securely anchored, and with the Soviets in the midst of a morale collapse and relocation, the Winter of 1941 will be much better than OTL for the Germans. There is the question of Italian participation - if the Egyptian offensive is slowly grinding out results, and there has been no Greek debacle, might not the Italian forces on the Russian front be both stronger and of better morale than OTL ?
1942, and of course war has come to the Pacific. In Europe, Britain's priority HAS to be to hold Egypt, and whatever forces can be spared will be routed there. The Italian-led attack could well fail at this juncture - necessitating aid from Germany at a time when Germany is already deep within the USSR. Interestingly, if Hitler does send an Afrika Corps, it will more likely be headed by Kesselring, and thus have a unified command structure. Perhaps a second-level general such as Bismarck or Mackensen commands on the ground, but everyone will know that Kesselring is in control
Unlike Rommel, Kesselring believed in making the enemy pay for every inch in a retreat, seeing value in a prolonged delaying action where Rommel only saw the putting off the inevitable. Thus, in Italy, Rommel wanted to withdraw immediately to Lombardy, Kesselring insisted on fighting for each defensive line as hard as possible. In N Africa in OTL, once forced onto the defensive, Rommel retreated to the Tunisian border, abandoning Tripoli - sure, he fought a MASTERFUL retreat, but his aim was only to get there with as many of his forces intact as possible. If forced into a similar retreat, Kesselring will fight for each defensive line in turn, and this will make the war more palatable in Italy (no abandonment of Libya or Tripoli) and make Italian reinforcements have a greater will
1942 with Moscow already in German hands is going to have very different strategic goals than OTL. Some of it will be defence of what they already hold, some of it will be to press on towards other goals - one wonders what would happen to the Caucasus campaign if Rommel is commanding an army ? He's going to take the risks of getting cut off, is going to push his forces ever on, and could thus achieve Grozny with support units trailing in behind him, and Luftwaffe flights across the Black Sea his only immediate means of resupply and communication. At Grozny he intersects one of the main Russian pipelines, and thus achieves a partial goal. Baku beckons, but Stalin has not gone to sleep
One thing to say is that in OTL when it looked as if Baku MIGHT fall, the USSR dismantled a large part of the operation there, shipped it across the Caspian and reassembled it in Turkmenistan. This is going to happen here, of course. Regardless of where Stalin and his government have ended up, they can control events to a sufficient degree that if the Germans take Baku they will have to rebuild it themselves
OTL Stalingrad was a mixture of a German flanking manoevre and a Russian counter-attack. In this timeline, the Italians are stronger and of better morale, whilst the Russians are weaker through continued defeats and a greater struggle to assemble their resources. I don't see Stalingrad becoming the German killing zone of OTL, but its going to be a hard-fought battle. And will probably stall German offensives in the South
The exception to that will be Baku - the Germans will take it, but in immediate terms all they get is a blazing ruin. Whether they can commit sufficient resources and time to rebuilding and extracting oil will depend on events elsewhere
As 1942 comes to an end, Kesselring is probably defending Tobruk and associated defensive lines against a British/Imperial counter-attack. Rommel is flying home on leave from Baku to celebrate Christmas with his family. And Paulus is secure in Stalingrad but having his ear bent by the Fuhrer as to why he hasn't advanced his front North and East as was originally planned
1943 will presumably still see the first major US commitment to the European front, with a Torch analogue. But unlike OTL there is no Montgomery bashing at S Tunisia - if he is indeed the commander, he is still stuck fighting Kesselring in Eastern and Central Libya.
I was wondering about the fallschirmjaeger - they have not seen their OTL mauling upon Crete here. Maybe Malta would get the go-ahead, as a means to relieve the pressure on Kesselring's position ? On the surface, 1943 may seem rather late for that but ATL's develop an internal momentum of their own. We could thus see the Luftwaffe and paratroops take Malta, but a US versus Italy naval battle result in US forces defeating the Italian fleet off NW Africa
Thus, in N Italy, if we posit von Arnim in command, he has a theatre command, presumably again under Kesselring's overall control, and holds Malta so that supplies in the immediate term are assured. But things could actually go WORSE for the Germans - without a Rommel there would be no Kasserine Pass, and the various US armies will be converging on von Arnim's defensive positions, facing only limited opposition rather than a unified grasp of the situation
In the USSR, the main German objectives are probably Leningrad, Nizhny Novgorod (yeah, I know it has a different Soviet name, but I forgot what it is !) and Astrakhan. One could certainly imagine a concentration on the first of these, the need to delete the longest-landing thorn in the side, and achieve a proper unification with the Finns.
Given that the Soviet government is probably now East of the Urals, it seems to me as if their offensive focus would be in the South rather than in the centre, and thus Paulus will find himself fighting a mobile enemy determined not to let Astrakhan fall into German hands. Thus, the centre probably takes Nizhny Novgorod more easily than they had envisaged, whilst in the North horrendous losses are taken, but eventually Leningrad is German. The strain of this battle will no doubt drag forces away from other theatres, or most especially reroute reinforcements to the North away from them. Paulus could thus find himself defeated before Astrakhan whilst leading an army that is fifty percent Italian or Rumanian
1943 could thus end with :-
- - German forces in control of Leningrad tho at ruinous cost
- - German forces in control of Nizhny Novgorod
- - German forces with 50% Italian and Rumanian defeated before Astrakhan
- - Kesselring defending a line East of Tripoli against British and Imperial forces
- - Malta in German hands
- - von Arnim facing several US armies closing in on his positions in Tunisia
At the same time, the RAF and USAAF raids on Germany are becoming devastating. We could return to the "small changes" of the title by allowing greater German success to have some benefits in home defence, and allowing the Focke-Achgelis factory to survive, and Peenemunde not to get hit the first time it did
Thus as 1944 dawns, Germany has a fleet of transport helicopters completing and deploying, and on the other hand has the prototype V-1 produced and ready for use
This Second Blitz begins earlier than OTL and with greater intensity, if no greater increase in accuracy. The helicopters would be used in N Africa and in Russia. Interestingly, in OTL, what helicopters there were were used often in Yugoslavia against the Partisans, but here the monarchy has held on, agreed a vague accession to the Axis (akin to Bulgaria's) and thus Germany is spared the drain on forces that OTL Yugoslavia was. .
Thus, Germany can afford to pour in reinforcements to Tunisia in 1944. It might be of interest to consider who would get the command ? Von Arnim would be viewed as commander of his own army, but with someone else parachuted in over him. I'm wondering if Himmler could pull it for the Waffen - SS ? So far, in this timeline, they have mainly and soley fought in Russia, and as such will continue to be seen as secondary to the army command. Wanting to prove their worth to Hitler, and seeing an opportunity to take control SOMEWHERE, Himmler could get the Fuhrer's backing to send in Dietrich and leading Waffen SS formations to co-ordinate and control the fight-back in Tunisia
I also don't see Rommel sitting around Baku in an administrative role, at least not for long. If Paulus is defeated before Astrakhan, and 1944 opens with a potential Soviet counter-attack, I could see Rommel being sent North to take command, and rectify the situation. Paulus could easily be shuffled into an important administrative job somewhere, eg at Stalingrad which would be a transport hub.
Rommel would be bolstered by all the new technology coming online - he won't get the V-1 which is bombarding Britain earlier and heavier than OTL, but he will get the helicopters and the jet aircraft. Hitler will have labelled him his favourite in no uncertain terms, and the man who gave Hitler Baku can do no wrong. He will have first call on innovations such as the King Tiger and the newest self-propelled guns. His remit is to turn a defensive position into an attack, and take Astrakhan
1944 could thus see a major blooding of the US army in Europe as it fights back against the Waffen SS -led defence of Tunisia. Luftwaffe jets give the Germans sufficient control of the skies to mean that the thin fabric of the supply line from Italy via Malta to Tunisia holds.
With this situation, and with Britain's main focus on the slow and costly advance in Libya, 1944 will see nothing beyond dreams of any landing in mainland Europe. Kesselring is being slowly driven back, but his forces always make a good account of themselves, and a goodly number of Italian units have fought their way to veteran status under his command. Rome remains committed to the alliance with Berlin, and hopes in both capitals continue to be of an eventual victory
Later 1944 sees the barrage of V-2s descend on London, and cause panic. In OTL this was close, and only government lies (gas explosion etc) and advances and raids on launch sites prevented it. Here, Britain is not engaged on the continent, and the Luftwaffe is more effective than OTL. There is no need for V-2 barrages on Antwerp etc, which remain German, so more missiles available also. London sees a general panic and flight, and Churchill's government is forced to put into place measures to accommodate this, since attempting to retard it is correctly seen as a lost cause
Thus, whilst RAF and USAAF bomber fleets pound Berlin and other German cities, the Germans are able to hit back hard against Britain, and by other means let them know exactly how it feels
Summer 1944 would thus see Rommel make full use of technology and his allies, and take Astrakhan after a mobile and chaotic battle (his forte). Away in the Soviet headquarters, East of the Urals, Stalin is quietly "heart-attacked" and Molotov, with Beria behind him, takes power.
1944 also sees FDR elected to an unprecedented fourth term as President of the USA. The Pacific War has only seen small butterflies, but the European scene is wildly different from OTL. US forces are mainly in action in Tunisia, against Waffen SS-led German defenders, whilst the USAAF is bombing Germany from out of Britain. He decides to redirect some naval resources from the Pacific to the Med (which makes perfect sense)
We are now approaching 1945 with Nazi Germany's Fortress Europe still intact. In fact, in the USSR, German forces continue to be on the advance more than they are on the retreat
One wonders whether the US redeployment of naval forces from the Pacific would have any real reciprocal impact ? Its after Leyte Gulf so if anything it might delay slightly Okinawa, Iwo Jima, Saipan etc, but with Japanese naval assets virtually irrelevant not have a great impact
Thus, 1945 would see say three modern US aircraft carriers with support ships enter the Med. Whilst Dietrich continues to defeat all US attempts to prise him loose from his defensive positions in Tunisia, the USN goes onto the offensive, blasts Malta, and destroys the remains of the Italian battlefleet. They follow this up with a descent upon Malta, including airborne USAAF units, and many disasters which are turned into lessons to be learned
With USN forces sitting astride their line of communications, both Dietrich in Tunis, and Kesselring in Tripoli are facing the threat of having their forces marooned on the one hand, and cut off completely from supplies on the other
Meanwhile Rommel is killed in action (balance of probabilities) leading his forces from Astrakhan NW towards where the Soviets are massing for a counter-strike.
At sea, it also needs to be noted that the Walther submarine, snorket etc, is in full deployment in the Battle of the Atlantic, but that experience has shown that whatever the attackers do, the defenders counter within a matter of months, so whilst the losses of Allied ships sharply rises, no one expects it to remain a problem for long
With Japan collapsing, both the USA and Britain pour massive forces into the African fronts, with US forces also coming up through Egypt on the one hand, whilst British units come through Algiers to fight alongside the US on the other. Kesselring abandons Tripoli and retreats West to unite his forces with von Arnim and Dietrich's in an overall defensive posture. But USAAF flights from both Algiers and Egypt are blasting German positions, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to hold them
Molotov sends Zhukov in person to oversee the counter-offensive against Astrakhan, and the city is soon besieged, with a battle raging around it
The Tehran Summit sees Molotov, Roosevelt and Churchill meet for the only time. Within a month, Molotov will have defeated a coup attempt by Beria and overseen his execution, Roosevelt will be dead, and Churchill voted out of office
Kesselring and Dietrich agree that further defence of N Africa is impossible and agree a schedule to fly out their best units. USAAF attacks make this increasingly difficult, whilst US Navy forces attack Sicily and prevent it being used as a fallback base. In early Summer 1945, von Arnim is forced to surrender the remains of two German and allied armies to the American-led Allies
Stalingrad falls mid-Summer, and Himmler gets Dietrich (evacuated by aircraft from N Africa) deployed with full theatre control.
Soviet armies are also closing in on Nizhny Novgorod, whilst US airforce units, given permission by Molotov, are operating out of Soviet airbases, and blasting at Germany's Eastern defences
Kesselring takes command of Italy as US, British, Free French and Free Polish forces land en masse supported by naval and aerial control. By using the terrain, and the units available to him, to best advantage, Kesselring is able to delay the fall of Rome until he has withdrawn all forces, and to create a new defensive line N of Rome
Dietrich is able to stabilise the front at Stalingrad
US forces prepare for the invasion of the Japanese home islands
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If one takes the USA as having one plus one potential nuclear bombs in mid 1945 it seems unlikely in this scenario that they would use them against Japan. Sure, an invasion of the Japanese home islands would cost perhaps a couple of hundred thousand US lives, but compared to any direct attack on Nazi Europe this is bound to be on the low side.
Thus, Summer/Autumn 1945 sees the US invasion of Japan on the one hand, and USAAF raids on Fortress Europe on the other
V-2s continue to pound London and Southern British cities
Soviet forces close in on Moscow, whilst Dietrich holds Stalingrad
USAAF bombers drop a nuclear bomb on Essen
- - -
Hitler suffers a breakdown
Goering is in seclusion and hedony
Himmler, Goebbels, Speer and Bormann face off in a melee of uncertain alliances
With the Fuhrer unable to communicate, and Truman in Washington demanding an answer, Speer meets with army commanders to consider a coup, hoping thereby to create the impression of a new government, needing time and generosity
In the East, the Battle of Moscow begins, with Molotov ordering an all-out attack
US and Allied forces continue to press slowly Northwards up the Italian peninsular
With no clear outcome signalled, two weeks later USAAF bombers drop a nuclear bomb on Magdeburg
Himmler, Goebbels and Speer see to the extermination of Bormann, and the final "rest" of the Fuhrer
Hitler's roles as per OTL are split with Speer becoming President and Goebbels Chancellor
Moscow falls, and Russian armies are on the advance on N, Central and S fronts
- - -
Late 1945 sees Himmler, Dietrich and Waffen SS commanders meet at Rostov to agree a counter-offensive. Many say it is insanity, but with the imminent collapse of the front it is the only idea feasible. With all resources prioritising the S Front, Winter 1945-46 sees the Soviets halted and thrown back
BUT Spring 1946 sees US and Allied landings in Southern France, attacked vigorously but supported by the well-established and strong USAAF N African units, and by increasing units of the USN sent from the Pacific
1946 sees increasing nervousness within the German political command as it becomes obvious that the USA will complete and ready a third nuclear bomb well before Germany can even approach one
The bloody and costly invasion of the Japanese home islands drags on, as does the slow slog up the Italian peninsular, and the breakout from S France
Zhukov is defeated and killed before Stalingard but it is too little too late as the Moscow front collapses, and US -supported offensives blossom across the fronts
- - -
With no end in sight, V-2s raining down on S Britain, stalemate in Italy and at Stalingrad, and S France bogged down, the Allied command authorise all methods to bring the war to an end
Essen and Magdeburg have already been nuked
The USAAF flies interference, allowing a bomber to nuke Berlin
Goebbels is killed - Speer is in the Harz, Himmler is at Wawelsberg
German resistance continues as Summer 1946 arrives
Best Regards
Grey Wolf