A World Without

[Wolfpaw]

I think there are three main options for Germany without Hitler: a functioning democratic state, a Communist state (which later becomes a Communist dictatorship) or under a far-right/military dictatorship.

While there is a chance that the state remains functionally democratic, it's far more likely that some sort of right-wing dictatorship emerges, either under the military or under some fascist movement. It's ASB for the KPD to take control of Germany for points I'll get to.

Ludendorff actually does look like the best bet for the far-right/military dictatorship: according to Wikipedia, his reputation may have been damaged because he supported the Beer Hall Putsch in '23. With no Hitler to really form the NSDAP, there's no Putsch. Ludendorff gets more votes (and actually campaigns and uses that "war hero" image) to get more votes than he did in OTL and he can become Reichspräsident in TTL.

Ludendorff wasn't nearly as popular as people think. He was a war hero, yes, but nobody wanted him in charge. He was far too much a of a völkisch loon; it would be like if Himmler was the Nazis' spokesman instead of Hitler or Goebbels. Besides, Ludendorff wouldn't have run without NSDAP backing to begin with.

The Beer Hall Putsch wouldn't have happened, but the Bavarian Clique of Kahr, Seisser and Lossow is likely to launch some sort of clumsy right-wing coup in 1923 that gets shot down.

In the vacuum of the right, the DNVP comes to dominate politically while paramilitary organizations like the Stahlhelm and Röhm's bully boys carry out the dirty work.

Unlike the Nazis, the right-wing ITTL's Gremany is more fascist in nature and therefore more appealing to Catholics (the right won't be as anti-Catholic as the Nazis were) and more hostile to the SPD. I predict that a DNVP-Zentrum coalition forms and they use the paramilitaries to crush and harass the SPD and KPD until they're nonentities.

If the paramilitaries grow too unruly or try a putsch of their own, count on the military to takeover and establish their own dictatorship. Again, Germany will probably become authoritarian, but not fascist or even fascist-dominated outside of Southern Germany.

wilcoxchar is right about the KPD getting votes- I'm looking at the 1925 German presidential election, and the KPD candidate received 7% of the vote. In 1932 presidential election, the KPD received 10.1%.

In the parliamentary elections, they had a better turnout- 12.4% in May 1924, 8.9% in December 1924, 10.6% of the vote in 1928, 13.1% in 1930, 14.1% in July 1932, 16.9% in November 1932. Without the Nazis to be a far-right counterpoint or Ludendorff and his party doing worse in the elections than in OTL

I've already covered how frankly unthreatening the KPD's electoral performance was, along with Ludendorff's treating politics as more of a hobby than anything else.

I could see Germany becoming either Communist or having the KPD in a coalition government.

Absolutely not. Stalin forbade the KPD from cooperating with anyone, including (and especially) their fellow leftists in the SPD. But even if Stalin doesn't set that policy, the KPD probably won't be in any coalition government because they just flat-out scare too many people. The KPD will always be seen as a Fifth Column by the majority of Germans, Hitler or no Hitler.

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

While there is a chance that the state remains functionally democratic, it's far more likely that some sort of right-wing dictatorship emerges, either under the military or under some fascist movement.

I'm agreeing with you here. I think the right-wing/fascist/military dictatorship is far more likely than a democratic Germany. Like Typo said, there were plenty of disaffected German ex-soldiers with charisma after World War One. I was just trying to show that the KPD was making impressive gains in the Reichstag and in the presidential elections. Had the Weimar republic just stumbled on until the mid-to-late 1930s and early 1940s, it looks (at least to me) possible for the KPD to get a minority government. But, since you mentioned that they were seen as a "Fifth Column" by many Germans, it would seem to be unlikely they get into power.

Ludendorff wasn't nearly as popular as people think. He was a war hero, yes, but nobody wanted him in charge. He was far too much a of a völkisch loon; it would be like if Himmler was the Nazis spokesman instead of Hitler or Goebbels. Besides, Ludendorff wouldn't have run without NSDAP backing to begin with.

The Beer Hall Putsch wouldn't have happened, but the Bavarian Clique of Kahr, Seisser and Lossow is likely to launch some sort of clumsy right-wing coup in 1923 that gets shot down.

In the vacuum of the right, the DNVP comes to dominate the right politically while paramilitary organizations like the Stahlhelm and Röhm's bully boys carry out the dirty work.

Unlike the Nazis, the right-wing ITTL's Gremany is more fascist in nature and therefore more appealing to Catholics (the right won't be as anti-Catholic as the Nazis were) and more hostile to the SPD. I predict that a DNVP-Zentrums coalition forms and they use the paramilitaries to crush and harass the SPD and KPD until they're nonentities.

If the paramilitaries grow too unruly or try a putsch of their own, count on the military to takeover and establish their own dictatorship. Again, Germany will probably become authoritarian, but not fascist or even fascist-dominated outside of Southern Germany.

This sounds the most plausible for a right-wing/fascist/military dictatorship. Who would be the dictator of Germany with a DNVP-Zentrum coalition? Hugenberg? Is it possible for the DVP (German People's Party) to get into the coalition? DNVP tried to get their support prior to the Nazis, after all, and with no Nazis, would probably get that support.

What would happen to minorities, like Jews and such? DNVP-Zentrum probably won't go the NSDAP route, but would they make life difficult for German Jews? I know the DNVP was antisemitic, but not Nazi-like.

Absolutely not. Stalin forbade the KPD from cooperating with anyone, including (and especially) their fellow leftists in the SPD. But even if Stalin doesn't set that policy, the KPD probably won't be in any coalition government because they just flat-out scare too many people. The KPD will always be seen as a Fifth Column by the majority of Germans, Hitler or no Hitler.

He did? Well, that puts things in perspective. So, Germany's future basically comes down to either being a democratic state (harder, but not implausible) or a right-wing/fascist/military dictatorship state (more likely). Thanks, Wolfpaw.

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

Bumpity-bump

 

[Joshua Ben Ari]

No other takers? Nothing?

 

[Wolfpaw]

This sounds the most plausible for a right-wing/fascist/military dictatorship. Who would be the dictator of Germany with a DNVP-Zentrum coalition? Hugenberg?

I'd say that there'd be more of a very tense sort of triumvirate.

Hugenberg would be President, and I could see Papen being made Chancellor since he'll appeal to almost all of the conservative MPs. Franz Seldte is Minister of Labor, Theodor Duesterberg is Minister of the Interior, Kurt von Schleicher is Minister of Defense, Herman Göring may occupy the same position he did IOTL. Otto Meißner will be scuttling around too, I suppose.

The DNVP and other far-rightists will come to dominate the Federal government and the state apparatus--the bureaucracy, the courts, the police, etc.

Göring is actually a figure very much worth watching. He was an excellent public speaker, a war hero, and very, very popular. Also consider that he has his own loyal legions of Freikorps and very strong connections to both the industrial bigwigs and the Junker aristocracy that dominated the Reichswehr.

If some sort of crisis were to unseat the Hugenberg regime, I'd expect Göring to emerge as the next leader due to his popularity amongst all of the factions.

The second part of the triumvirate are the Freikorps themselves. Hugenberg was very friendly towards the Stahlhelm, and they're guaranteed representatives in the Cabinet (likely Deusterberg and Seldte). They'll likely just be incorporated into the police.

But that still leaves people like Röhm and Kriebel and Mahraun and the Strasser Brothers with their own private armies. They're strong enough to cause trouble if Hugenberg starts enacting his right-wing economic policies or any other policies that the Brownshirts don't cotton to.

This brings us to the third member of the triumvirate, the Reichswehr high-command. They will back the Hugenberg government, but they are not afraid to take over if there's a real crisis. If a the government can't function or if the Freikorps try a putsch, the Truppenamt will step in.

In any scenario where the military gets into direct power, the Freikorps will be crushed out of hand. From there it's up to the General Staff whether or not to return power to a civilian government.

This is where I see Göring becoming important. The Junkers in the military will hand power over to him because they're not really interested in governing and they know he'll only up the military budget and leave the Reichswehr to its own affairs instead of trying to stuff it with cronies.

He's been a member of the Reichstag and is likely to have served in the Cabinet, so he has a knowledge of administrative work, though he'll stuff the top bureaucracy with cronies. And importantly, Göring can command respect on the World Stage. Where somebody like Röhm would be seen as nothing more than a thuggish strongman and a pariah, Göring is leader that Western governments will not only recognize, but gladly deal with.

Whatever Freikorps forces are left are likely to find Hermann acceptable since he'll make sure that they're well taken care of. Bavaria is likely to remain heavily fascist.

Is it possible for the DVP (German People's Party) to get into the coalition? DNVP tried to get their support prior to the Nazis, after all, and with no Nazis, would probably get that support.

I suppose they could merge, yes. But I've never heard of them cooperating in OTL--in fact, the DVP was willing to support the SPD which is a cardinal sin in the eyes of the DNVP.

What would happen to minorities, like Jews and such? DNVP-Zentrum probably won't go the NSDAP route, but would they make life difficult for German Jews? I know the DNVP was antisemitic, but not Nazi-like.

Jews will be harassed and probably have some or most of their rights taken away, but no, we're not going to see a Final Solution-type situation here. Jews will be "encouraged" to emigrate, as they were before Wannssee. Same goes for other minorities: emigration, not extermination.