A world without the microchip?

[the_lyniezian]

Some thoughts:

• Just been thinking about something relating to Richard Feynman's talk, "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom" given just before the end of 1959, part of which involved Feynman offering a $1000 prize to the fist person who could come up with a working elecric moror no bigger than 1/64in. cube (minus the lead-in wires). It was accopmlished less than a year later. I was just thinking, given certainly that an electric motor involves electromagnetic pronciples, whether one might take a step backwards and instead use minituarised relays instead of transistors or valves? Just a thought, as it is probably unworkable- to get the power in, you would need musch smaller electical coonnections and so might as well have a chip!
• Assuming there is no IC, is itpossible to get the tech for fibre-optic transmissions and some sort of cable-TV service? And with no digital revolution- and hence no Internet- maybe there wil be the possibility of things such as videophones and some sort of interactive TV services (analogue only, mind you) as an alternative to the Internet- these things seem not to have caught on because of it?
• If we assume that something is going to need to keep consumer demand for television sets up, could we see an earlier rollout of HD teansmissions (possibly only on cable due to bandwidth limitations- unless we consider the reviving/wider implementation of the French-Italian 819-line systems?
• I supsect satellite TV is a dud- how are you going to fit all the elctronics up on a satellite that will get off the gorund with little minaturisation?

 

[Mark E.]

In an environment frozen to 1970 technology, there would be no satellite TV, but there would be cable TV, albeit analog and wire-cable based.

Cable TV evolved in the US in the late sixties, as communities too small to support three or more TV stations wanted to view programs on America's three commercial networks at the time (ABC, NBC, CBS).

Through the seventies, cable TV was usually restricted to smaller, somewhat rural communities because major metropolitan areas easily supported five or more broadcast stations, with unused channels on the UHF band still open today.

An old-style (pre-satellite) cable TV system provided up to 12 VHF signals to its users. UHF channels had to be "dropped" to VHF in much the way the UHF converter boxes did in homes before new TV's were required to have UHF tuners in 1964.

If the community had one or two local VHF stations, those channels could not be used on the cable because of interference. In many cases, the programming on some of the channels would duplicate each other, as the offering usually included two stations from each network (local news and non-network program time was different, though). Cable companies had to provide a community access channel, and sometimes satisfied the need by continuously running a video camera in front of the local courthouse or park. For this meeger service, users still paid about $8 a month, equivalent to $25-$30 in today's currency.

When HBO first came out in the late seventies (with microchip technology, though), the programs were played by the local cable company since there were no satellites yet.

 

[tchizek]

Some thoughts:

• Just been thinking about something relating to Richard Feynman's talk, "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom" given just before the end of 1959, part of which involved Feynman offering a $1000 prize to the fist person who could come up with a working elecric moror no bigger than 1/64in. cube (minus the lead-in wires). It was accopmlished less than a year later. I was just thinking, given certainly that an electric motor involves electromagnetic pronciples, whether one might take a step backwards and instead use minituarised relays instead of transistors or valves? Just a thought, as it is probably unworkable- to get the power in, you would need musch smaller electical coonnections and so might as well have a chip!

Without transistor yes maybe, except that tubes (i.e., valves) were already getting fairly miniature by the late '40s. Heck in WW II they used several tubes in proximity fused 40mm shells. Without transistors this trend would have just continued - i.e., smaller less power hungry tubes. But I don't think you could get transistors and not have someone think of putting more than one on a chip. So the only POD I see for the "No Integrated Circuits" is to have the Transite also delayed.

• Assuming there is no IC, is itpossible to get the tech for fibre-optic transmissions and some sort of cable-TV service? And with no digital revolution- and hence no Internet- maybe there wil be the possibility of things such as videophones and some sort of interactive TV services (analogue only, mind you) as an alternative to the Internet- these things seem not to have caught on because of it?

As Mark E. pointed out above there would still be cable TV service, and I think you might get some form of digital revolution with tubes. The theory among SF authors in the 40's and 50's was that everyone would have home access via terminals to a large fast computer. From most peoples perspective that would not even look all that different than the Web we have today! At least the way many people use it. However I don't think you would get fibre-optic at all since the main driver there is the need for higher bandwidth. Which would not be driven without the style Internet we have now.

• If we assume that something is going to need to keep consumer demand for television sets up, could we see an earlier rollout of HD teansmissions (possibly only on cable due to bandwidth limitations- unless we consider the reviving/wider implementation of the French-Italian 819-line systems?

I am skeptical of this, the bandwidth limitations of analog cable were just too tight to be "wasting" multiple channels on HD anything. The driver for TV would still be the same that it was - color, larger, better remote. It would just be tubes rather than transistors.

My grandparents had a remote control TV in the early 1970s - massive thing the size of a paperback book (a BIG paperback book), it used sound to trigger the channel change - i.e., the damn thing made a huge "click" every time you pressed the channel up or channel down, AND if somebody clapped their hands it would sometimes change channel. It ate batteries like they were popcorn and it got so hot that it burned a mark in the table where they left it sitting so I suspect it was tubes - but they would never let me take it apart so I don't know for sure.

• I suspect satellite TV is a dud- how are you going to fit all the elctronics up on a satellite that will get off the gorund with little minaturisation?

Well since the first few satellites did use tubes it is possible but unlikely not due to mass but due to failure rate of tubes. Although that might drive a better space presence since there would be a drive to fix all of those burned out tubes...

 

[the_lyniezian]

[/list]Without transistor yes maybe, except that tubes (i.e., valves) were already getting fairly miniature by the late '40s. Heck in WW II they used several tubes in proximity fused 40mm shells. Without transistors this trend would have just continued - i.e., smaller less power hungry tubes. But I don't think you could get transistors and not have someone think of putting more than one on a chip. So the only POD I see for the "No Integrated Circuits" is to have the Transite also delayed.

All well and good, just wondering, however, itf tubes aren't going to have a high failure rate anyway?
[/list]As Mark E. pointed out above there would still be cable TV service, and I think you might get some form of digital revolution with tubes. The theory among SF authors in the 40's and 50's was that everyone would have home access via terminals to a large fast computer. From most peoples perspective that would not even look all that different than the Web we have today! At least the way many people use it. However I don't think you would get fibre-optic at all since the main driver there is the need for higher bandwidth. Which would not be driven without the style Internet we have now.
[/quote]

I did suggest the possibility of videophones, for example, which I would imagine require a rather large amount of bandwidth. And weren't fibre-optic cables around before the Internet was a big deal anyway? I suppose the possibility of, say, more TV stations might fuel calls for increased bandwidth, or higher-definition pictures, stereo sound, &c.

I am skeptical of this, the bandwidth limitations of analog cable were just too tight to be "wasting" multiple channels on HD anything. The driver for TV would still be the same that it was - color, larger, better remote. It would just be tubes rather than transistors.

Once you have colour TV, and a reasonably large screen, then manufacturers are going to start looking for some new innovation. I suggested the 819-line system which was around in France as early as 1949 (though later abandoned in favour of the 625-line standard)- so it is one already existing "off the shelf". I suppose such a system is going to require a lot of bandwidth, sure. But this was in the days of VHF, pehpas UHF broadcasts might fare better. And then there are fibre-optics, and unless anyone tells me that they need chip-based technology to work, I shall consider suggesting the possibility...

My grandparents had a remote control TV in the early 1970s - massive thing the size of a paperback book (a BIG paperback book), it used sound to trigger the channel change - i.e., the damn thing made a huge "click" every time you pressed the channel up or channel down, AND if somebody clapped their hands it would sometimes change channel. It ate batteries like they were popcorn and it got so hot that it burned a mark in the table where they left it sitting so I suspect it was tubes - but they would never let me take it apart so I don't know for sure.

Possibly an indicator that remote controls might be no more than a novelty dead-end ITTL!

Well since the first few satellites did use tubes it is possible but unlikely not due to mass but due to failure rate of tubes. Although that might drive a better space presence since there would be a drive to fix all of those burned out tubes...

Interesting. But making so many space trips is going to be more expensive than it is worth. So I suppose at most far fewer satellites and no direct broadcasting...

 

[tchizek]

All well and good, just wondering, however, itf tubes aren't going to have a high failure rate anyway

yes, they had a higher failure rate than transistors but the smaller lower power tubes did have a lower failure rate. And w/o transistors there would be a push to improve it yet some more.

I did suggest the possibility of videophones, for example, which I would imagine require a rather large amount of bandwidth. And weren't fibre-optic cables around before the Internet was a big deal anyway? I suppose the possibility of, say, more TV stations might fuel calls for increased bandwidth, or higher-definition pictures, stereo sound, &c.

There were fibre-optics before the Internet explosion but they really got useful/cheap due to IC's and solid state lasers. I strongly suspect they would not exist w/o these drivers.

Possibly an indicator that remote controls might be no more than a novelty dead-end ITTL!

Oh yea, but I can see the TV manufactures pushing them as a aux feature. Or maybe wired remotes, "move the channel changer over by your chair with the new Magnavox with the new and improved remote control. Included with the Magnavox 1600 color TV all new for 1995" (followed by a picture of a box with a cable out one end and a manual TV tuner on the front").

Interesting. But making so many space trips is going to be more expensive than it is worth. So I suppose at most far fewer satellites and no direct broadcasting...

Oh but if you launch a station with a tube repair and manufacturing facility in it and a scooter type ship to make check/fix trips to the satellites it keeps the cost per tube down some. I could actually see this being used for military satellites first.

 

[the_lyniezian]

Bumped as was thinking about this thread earlier...

Oh but if you launch a station with a tube repair and manufacturing facility in it and a scooter type ship to make check/fix trips to the satellites it keeps the cost per tube down some. I could actually see this being used for military satellites first.

Thinking about this, this seems a bit difficult without some from of advanced automation, but I have thought of an alternative: have some sort of manned relay station where the inhabitants can make repairs. Would be vastly more expensive and probably not suited to commercial TV (more military applications).

Also, on an unrelated note to the above, been thinking: how might music and popular culture develop? A lot of modern popular (and not-so-popular) music relies on electronics- without synths amal enough to fit on stage, less scope for digital sampling &c. how do you see things developing?

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Answer to the root question: Fallout 3

 

[tchizek]

Thinking about this, this seems a bit difficult without some from of advanced automation, but I have thought of an alternative: have some sort of manned relay station where the inhabitants can make repairs. Would be vastly more expensive and probably not suited to commercial TV (more military applications).

Oh you misunderstood my original idea, which was to have a manned tube repair/production facility in orbit with the satellites and the scooter go from that facility to the communication satellites.

And yes at first this would certainly be military applications, but then so were the first satellites OTL. Once this is a proven technology and the launch cost is down some (which it would be since they still need to supply the factory), then the commercial elements would come in to exploit it.

Also, on an unrelated note to the above, been thinking: how might music and popular culture develop? A lot of modern popular (and not-so-popular) music relies on electronics- without synths amal enough to fit on stage, less scope for digital sampling &c. how do you see things developing?

Oh I expect it would be very different.

First it would be harder to have a global market for music and culture - even just in the US, without satellite and/or digital communication.

Second I would not expect computer tech to progress nearly as far. More like the late '40s early '50s computer tech - a few huge computers still programmed by the "high priests".

Without small computer tech I would not expect stuff like synths and mixing to get popular at all.

I would expect a continuation and expansion of brass and wood instruments of increasing complexity.

Plus "big amplifier" electric instruments like the first electric guitars

 

[Mark E.]

I would see a world of technology that freezes just before HP introduced the first pocket calculator on July 1, 1972 (the HP-35). Computers would remain an agglomeration of transistors (and tubes) that occupied room-sized spaces. Programmers would punch cards with commands in FORTRAN or COBOL to be run on mainframe computers. Of course, only the most complex calculations would warrant the time it takes to use the computer.

[Hey: I remember writing FORTRAN programs in OTL.]

Microwave ovens would still come out in the late seventies or early eighties, but they would use mechanical timers and some vacuum tubes to power the magnetron (generic Klystron(R)). After all, that's why the early microwaves were so expensive and heavy in OTL.

Your cars use carburetors. No electronic ignition. Machining of engines limits service life to 100,000 miles instead of the much higher figures experienced today. Modern corrosion protection would be useless, so the rustbuckets of the early seventies would be the vehicles of the realm.