A world without the First World War. 1919 - the second Russian-Japanese War.

[Aley]

I am looking for PODs that could make your assumptions work.

Lets assume that in 1908 Franz Josef DOES NOT annex Bosnia.

Some bad blood between Austria, Germany and Russia/UK would not happen (actually it would also have been better for Austria both economically and diplomatically not to annex, but thats hindsight ).

Lets assume that Russia wants access to to straits and tries to get it on the diplomatic table, but UK interferes (keeping the status quo) - So instead the Austrians (and Germans) being the ones acting against Russias interest, it would be UK. Lets further assume that Russia and A-H and Germany slowly defuse the tensions between the nations.

Russia then might grow cofident enough to assume that any action in the East would NOT provoke German/Austrian action against Russia (It did not in 1905). Austria could easily have issues with italy - so fighting in the east against russia would seen as unwuise in Vienna. Germany still would be facing France. UK is content that no nation in Europe is powerful enough that it can dominate all others...

You don't need to have Germany allied with Russia - Just make them "good neighbours".

Russia can still be allied with France and France still allied with UK, but relations between Russia and UK are not really good. Thus Germany would not feel that "encircled" as OTL.

Italy likely is wanting both Austrian AND French territory, so it might look to a "friend". In this constellation (and because of economic ties) the friend sought is likely UK. Accidentally this even might butterfly the Ottoman-Turkish war as UK might pressure Italy NOT to harm the OE. Ans this in return might also butterfly away the Balkan wars...

Generally speaking Europe is not as bipolar as OTL, so war is less likely.

Russia has the potential to become i(more) industrialized and can afford to build then intended military assets to attack Japan in 1919 (no fear of invoking the Anglo Japanese traety as this kicks in only if one side is facing MORE than one enemy).

In fact in the decade 1909-1919 UK might increasingly become wary of Russia becuse of Russias growing military (and economic) power - so Germany might seen as lesser threat over the time.

It is highly unlikely, a respected colleague. Good-neighborly relations with Germany, Russia at that time could not be. The only option - the total elimination of confrontation in Europe. It is extremely difficult.
Assume that Germany suffered some catastrophe that led to a reduction of its military and industrial potential, and hence the German militarism.

 

[Aley]

I don't see the Russians producing their 16in guns for a while. The powerful 14in guns that were to be used on the Izmail class battlecruisers were developed by Vickers IIRC.

Not exactly. "Izmails" were to get as Vickers guns are made and manufactured in the Russian on his own project. Moreover, Russian 14" guns were considered better than the English. Suppose that this was due to their bonded, not wire structure which was a novelty for the English.
16" guns were also ordered both Vickers and Russian Obukhov plant. Cannons had a length of 45 calibres on the Russian system of measurement that is slightly shorter than the English. Sake of secrecy gun are manufactured at Vickers were called "15" in the 45-caliber." After the Bolsheviks came to power, the instrument was confiscated by the British Government and transformed into a 205-mm, it was considered experimental.
The edges of Obukhov plant led the design of 18" guns.

 

[Aley]

16" is a stretch goal that could possibly be achieved but 14" is more reasonable. Ther germans built in this timeframe the 38 cm SK L/45 a 15" gun. Assuming that Germany (Krupp) and UK (15" for R-class and QE-Class) were capable to build the world best guns it seems reasonable to assume the Russians would not be able to make better in the same timeframe. The Austrians had their 35cm Marinekanone L45 (14" more like 13,8) and the Italians worked on a 15"incher". The US had the 14" entering service in 1914 and were planning to use a 16" on the Lexingtons.

Given a peaceful 1914-1919 it COULD be possible that all those nations would be WORKING on 16" guns but honestly they would probably NOT be ready.

The guns were made, see above.

 

[Aley]

Also worth noting is that these ships were very lightly armored. They had a main belt of 11 inches, the same thickness as on Dreadnought, the deck armor was going to be only 1.3 inches thick! Add to that the absence of any torpedo bulkhead at all and 25 knot speed. Basically these things were heavily armed but poorly armored and not all that fast. My money would be on a Nagato or Queen Elizabeth.

For some reason, criticizing the Russian dreadnoughts for the small thickness of the main armor belt, do not pay attention to two things:

1. The height of this belt.

Compare contemporaries battleship "Sevastopol" - "Neptune" and "Kaiser".

2. Second, ballistic armor belt, the thickness of which was at the "Sevastopol" - 50 mm, and starting with "Nicholas I» increased to 75 mm.

Reservations battleships "Queen Elizabeth" and "Sevastopol".

 

[Aley]

The Black Sea battleships programs in 1915 and 1916.

It is known that before the First World War Russian Naval Ministry included the construction of the Black Sea, another four ships of the line, in addition to the ordered program in 1911 and 1914. Come on stream they were in 1919, which raises some suspicions, because so many battleships for the Black Sea was a kind of redundant.
At the same time, the 1919 deadline for the Anglo-Japanese treaty of defensive and, pointedly declared in the same document at the time: "We have to be ready by that date."
If Russia planned to take revenge for the Russian - Japanese war of 1904-1905. The new battleships Black Sea Fleet could, along with four ships Baltic program in 1915 and battlecruisers of the " Ishmael " to make a full squadron of "authorized " to go to the Far East.
What, then, could these ships?
In contrast, four of the Baltic "16-inch" ships of the line, which, in order to save tonnage was projected location of the main fire guns in four-gun towers, displacement Black Sea was not limited by limited draft, which allowed them to establish four less complex and more reliable three-gun turrets.
The rate them in accordance with the already established tradition, could be less than that of the Baltic ships, accounting for about 23 knots. At the same time, they surely would have received a "know-how" of the Russian shipbuilding as a spare boiler room, which appeared in the draft of the Baltic battleships of the program in 1915 and at its Engaging in combat with the forcing of turbines and their speed for a short time could reach 25 knots.
It is likely that weak anti-mine protection of existing Russian battleships had, at last, to draw attention to the problem of designers. With installation of the 37 mm anti torpedo bulkheads, tactical and technical elements of the new ships were to:

Normal displacement: 36,500 tons.
Speed: 23 knots.
Power Machines: 45000 hp.
Armament: 4x3 406-mm/45, 24x130-mm/55.
Reservations: board ( citadel ) 280 +75 mm .
Dimensions (waterline): 213,0 x32,7x9,2 m.

The plan was to lay the first couple of battleships at the end of 1915, having received the required appropriations from the State Duma. In view of the fact that the second pair of ships to achieve the consent of the councilors would be more difficult, provided, provision for them can be distinguished by a special decree of the emperor, as extraordinary.
Since the fall of 1915 were released just pile plant "Russud", the first pair of ships, which probably would have earned the name "Chesma" and "Sinop", it would have been ordered to the enterprise. After the launching of the battleship "Emperor Nicholas I» in 1916, was freed and large stocks of the plant "Nawal", the construction of a second of the same pile is not a problem.

1. Chesma 1915-1917-1919 Russud
2. Sinop 1915-1917-1919 Russud
3. Dvenadtsat apostolov 1916-1917-1919 Nawal
4. Georgiy Pobedonosets 1916-1918-1919 Nawal

What could then oppose squadron consisting of 8 battleships and 4 battle cruisers with 96 16-inch and 48 14-inch guns Japanese fleet? Only 4 new battleships with 48 14-inch guns and four battle cruisers with 32 14-inch wheels. Of course, as part of the Japanese fleet had other battleships and armored cruisers, including two dreadnoughts with as many as eight 12-inch guns in broadside on each, but this deeply outdated armada snail has not be taken into account.
What are the forecasts for the new Russian -Japanese war?