A world without the First World War. 1919 - the second Russian-Japanese War.

[Herzen's love-child]

Cancel the threat of European war, can not be a reason for this?

Offhand ---If you can somehow defuse the alliance system in the multi-decade run-up to WW1. Butterfly away the Franco-Prussian War and the subsequent French irredentism. Foster a European dynamic where international competition doesn't lead to adventurist aggression. You'd need a POD falling deeply into the 19th Century to do all that. Extra points for defusing Balkan nationalism.

In short, it would be very hard to do.

 

[Aley]

Offhand ---If you can somehow defuse the alliance system in the multi-decade run-up to WW1. Butterfly away the Franco-Prussian War and the subsequent French irredentism. Foster a European dynamic where international competition doesn't lead to adventurist aggression. You'd need a POD falling deeply into the 19th Century to do all that. Extra points for defusing Balkan nationalism.

In short, it would be very hard to do.

I do not really believe in this version, but you never know until the god of sleep?
With the Balkan nationalists easiest Russia not to support them, their impact would be minimal.

 

[Will Lucky]

Well another problem for example is Alsace-Lorraine, as long as Germany hold it France will seek an alliance to oppose any alliance Germany is in.

 

[Aley]

Well another problem for example is Alsace-Lorraine, as long as Germany hold it France will seek an alliance to oppose any alliance Germany is in.

That's just dare to France alone, without Russia, Germany resist?

 

[Captain Jack]

That's just dare to France alone, without Russia, Germany resist?

The thing is both France and Russia have an interest in defeating Germany and that is much easier to do together than alone. If Russia let's Germany defeat France than they just have a more powerful Germany to deal with latter and on their own.

 

[Aley]

The thing is both France and Russia have an interest in defeating Germany and that is much easier to do together than alone. If Russia let's Germany defeat France than they just have a more powerful Germany to deal with latter and on their own.

Colleague, I'm talking about low-probability, in which Germany has moderated its ambitions, trying to solve their problems by political and economic means.

 

[BlondieBC]

In 1912, the Russian Navy Department has received a top secret letter from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It said that in 1919 the deadline for the Anglo-Japanese military alliance and significant phrase: "We must be ready by then."
We can assume that had it not been World War, the Russian Empire would try to take revenge for the defeat of 1904-1905.
Bonuses Russia in this case:
1. Already the second track was paved Trans-Siberian Railway, and was finished building plot goes around the lake Baikal (during the Russian-Japanese war wagons transported by ferry across Lake Baikal). This allowed us to increase tenfold bandwidth Trans-Siberian Railway.
2. Russian army has fully completed the modernization and reorganization.
It was more difficult with the Navy. Although Russia was planning to lay the spring of 1915, four new ships of the line for the Baltic Fleet, armed twelve 16-inch guns in three turrets quadruple, and in 1917-1918 to lay another 4 battleships and four battlecruisers, only the first four would be ready in 1919 year. They added 4 battlecruisers such as "Izmail", which was certainly not enough against the Japanese fleet. But in late 1915 and early 1916., Planned to lay another 4 ships of the line from 12 16-inch guns, this time in a three-gun turrets, for the Black Sea Fleet. Chances are good that these battleships would be sent to the Far East.
They added 8 light cruisers "Svetlana", and their development in the Baltic Fleet and the same number in the Black Sea.
Who knows how it could turn wheel of history?

Well, lets assume that Russia and A-H have not found a permanent solution to the Balkans issue, but they do manage to keep it manageable (no war). IOTL, you have to keep 7 armies facing A-H/Germany and one facing the Ottomans in 1914. With Germany turning to an eastern war plan by 1919, you will need this many or more. And Germany might be tempted to solve some issues if things go badly. So you will need 8-10 armies in the west. And you need some type of fleet in Baltic. And you need the armies in the east. How many armies do you plan to attack Japan with?

Next, just glancing at your building program, it will cost a fortune. Easily Germany at its peak, so we are looking at 400 million marks (100 million USD, 25 million pounds) per year. This will be hard on the Imperial treasury.

And do they even have that many dry docks? Of a big enough size. Can they guild that many 16" guns? Produce that much armor plating? Can't give you the answers, but I bet they need outside help. And here is issue. You will have troubles with UK building such a large fleet for you. One is that if combined with the German Navy (RN 2 navy rule), the navy is huge in 15" + guns. Then add in the UK wants a 2 to 1 advantage over them, so they UK 24 new 15" dreads, which seems like exceed OTL production. BTW, 15" or larger guns penetrate predreads main belt at all ranges at all angles. In fact, any ship with less than a 13.5 inch gun will be suspect (you tended to armor a ship against a enemy gun about your size). So have trouble with UK building your ships for you. Not to mention, you may well cause Germany to do another Naval bill. You fleet is a real threat to High Seas Fleet in Baltic. Germany does not want to deal with Russia controlling the German coastline in a war.

Germany also issue. You have to find some Germany/Russian understanding. And this will make the UK really, really paranoid.

So this means I guess you try to build with domestic industry alone. Which means it will backlog badly, which is not unusual for the Tsars. Plans often don't work.

But ok, we are to 1919, and you solved all the issues for your TL. If you can get the war going, think you can win. The problem becomes diplomatic. Germany has a interest in knocking Russia down a notch. So does the UK due to India and Japanese alliance. There will be a real temptation to intervene. You risk getting WW1, but with UK on Entente side. It will be a short war, and loss for Russia.

But sure, if you can get everything working right, it could be huge Russian win, giving Russia domination over much of east Asia.

 

[Asami]

Even if the First World War was avoided, the Russian Empire was festering with parasites and was slowly dying from the inside out thanks to Nikolai II's incompetence.

The Russian war machine was numerous yes, but it was low morale and beginning to show splits in all of it's branches (which is what happened OTL). Almost every major empire had a reason to go against Russia except for maybe France. Britain, Germany and Japan had interests in keeping Russia down, Britain for the purposes of the Middle East, Japan for the Far East, and Germany for the "Lebensraum" that Hitler eventually pursued.

Russia igniting a war in 1919 with Japan would lead to a First World War inevitably, as Russia and Japan go to war, Britain gets called in on Japan's side, Germany joins in on Japan's side and then France gets dragged in by German attacks on the border.

You have effectively, World War I, except with Britain, Belgium and Japan siding with the Central Powers over the Entente, with the Bolsheviks, Mensheviks and other revolutionaries waiting in the wings of Russia, ready to feast on the dying carcass.

 

[Will Lucky]

Even if the First World War was avoided, the Russian Empire was festering with parasites and was slowly dying from the inside out thanks to Nikolai II's incompetence.

The Russian war machine was numerous yes, but it was low morale and beginning to show splits in all of it's branches (which is what happened OTL). Almost every major empire had a reason to go against Russia except for maybe France. Britain, Germany and Japan had interests in keeping Russia down, Britain for the purposes of the Middle East, Japan for the Far East, and Germany for the "Lebensraum" that Hitler eventually pursued.

Russia igniting a war in 1919 with Japan would lead to a First World War inevitably, as Russia and Japan go to war, Britain gets called in on Japan's side, Germany joins in on Japan's side and then France gets dragged in by German attacks on the border.

You have effectively, World War I, except with Britain, Belgium and Japan siding with the Central Powers over the Entente, with the Bolsheviks, Mensheviks and other revolutionaries waiting in the wings of Russia, ready to feast on the dying carcass.

Austria-Hungary would probably have a good reason to join in as well, so you effectively have a three front war.

Between Britain, Germany and Japan the Russian Navy will be no match.

And of course it has to deploy its armies to the German, Austrian and the Japanese Front. Its going to be heavily overstretched. Combine it with internal issues and Russia is going to fall to pieces quickly.

France with no real ally on its own front is going to lose in Europe and its going to lose its colonies.

 

[BBadolato]

What also makes this premise problematic is that problems people had with Nicolas and his wife are hand-waved, I presume Rasputin would still be around with all of the problems he brought.

 

[Aley]

Well, lets assume that Russia and A-H have not found a permanent solution to the Balkans issue, but they do manage to keep it manageable (no war). IOTL, you have to keep 7 armies facing A-H/Germany and one facing the Ottomans in 1914. With Germany turning to an eastern war plan by 1919, you will need this many or more. And Germany might be tempted to solve some issues if things go badly. So you will need 8-10 armies in the west. And you need some type of fleet in Baltic. And you need the armies in the east. How many armies do you plan to attack Japan with?

Next, just glancing at your building program, it will cost a fortune. Easily Germany at its peak, so we are looking at 400 million marks (100 million USD, 25 million pounds) per year. This will be hard on the Imperial treasury.

And do they even have that many dry docks? Of a big enough size. Can they guild that many 16" guns? Produce that much armor plating? Can't give you the answers, but I bet they need outside help. And here is issue. You will have troubles with UK building such a large fleet for you. One is that if combined with the German Navy (RN 2 navy rule), the navy is huge in 15" + guns. Then add in the UK wants a 2 to 1 advantage over them, so they UK 24 new 15" dreads, which seems like exceed OTL production. BTW, 15" or larger guns penetrate predreads main belt at all ranges at all angles. In fact, any ship with less than a 13.5 inch gun will be suspect (you tended to armor a ship against a enemy gun about your size). So have trouble with UK building your ships for you. Not to mention, you may well cause Germany to do another Naval bill. You fleet is a real threat to High Seas Fleet in Baltic. Germany does not want to deal with Russia controlling the German coastline in a war.

Germany also issue. You have to find some Germany/Russian understanding. And this will make the UK really, really paranoid.

So this means I guess you try to build with domestic industry alone. Which means it will backlog badly, which is not unusual for the Tsars. Plans often don't work.

But ok, we are to 1919, and you solved all the issues for your TL. If you can get the war going, think you can win. The problem becomes diplomatic. Germany has a interest in knocking Russia down a notch. So does the UK due to India and Japanese alliance. There will be a real temptation to intervene. You risk getting WW1, but with UK on Entente side. It will be a short war, and loss for Russia.

But sure, if you can get everything working right, it could be huge Russian win, giving Russia domination over much of east Asia.

Colleague, I made improving relations with Germany as an axiom. Of course a lot of problems here, the first of which is that allowing Germany to defeat France, Russia and Germany will remain private, and what the situation took place in 1941. Therefore, we can speak only about the absolute improvement in the international situation in Europe, which of course is very unlikely.
By 1914, Russia made to the fleet have already reached 24.25 million pounds per year, slightly higher than allocations of Germany (20.85 million) and second only to Britain and the United States. Built three new large private factory: Putilovskiy in St. Petersburg, Revel in the current Tallinn and "Russud" in Nikolaev on the Black Sea. With three existing large plants, the Treasury Baltic and Admiralty, as well as private plant "Nawal" in Nikolaev, the number of stocks suitable for the construction of ships of all sizes has been brought to 11. The preparations for the construction of the second pile to "Nawal", which brings the number of stocks to 12 (8 in the Baltic Sea and 4 on the Black Sea). Naval shipbuilding in Russia was a priority sector of industry, and the fact that by 1914 Russia entered the 4th in the world in terms of engineering, not least of which was caused by the construction and modernization of shipyards.
Production of large-caliber artillery pieces as well extended. Built a huge artillery factory in Tsaritsyn (now Volgograd). Under the Bolsheviks, it was called the plant "Barricades". In 1916, at the Obukhov factory was put into operation the first workshop for the construction of 16-inch towers, built more such workshops.
The program of building battleships and battle cruisers, I have not invented, it was officially adopted as the law of the fleet. Therefore, the problems with England would in any case.
As for Germany, it will be only too happy to remove part of the Russian fleet from European waters. This was the case before the Russian-Japanese war, when Kaiser Wilhelm gave to Nicholas II: «Admiral Atlantic welcomes the Admiral of the Pacific Ocean."

 

[Aley]

Even if the First World War was avoided, the Russian Empire was festering with parasites and was slowly dying from the inside out thanks to Nikolai II's incompetence.

The Russian war machine was numerous yes, but it was low morale and beginning to show splits in all of it's branches (which is what happened OTL). Almost every major empire had a reason to go against Russia except for maybe France. Britain, Germany and Japan had interests in keeping Russia down, Britain for the purposes of the Middle East, Japan for the Far East, and Germany for the "Lebensraum" that Hitler eventually pursued.

Russia igniting a war in 1919 with Japan would lead to a First World War inevitably, as Russia and Japan go to war, Britain gets called in on Japan's side, Germany joins in on Japan's side and then France gets dragged in by German attacks on the border.

You have effectively, World War I, except with Britain, Belgium and Japan siding with the Central Powers over the Entente, with the Bolsheviks, Mensheviks and other revolutionaries waiting in the wings of Russia, ready to feast on the dying carcass.

Wrong. Nicholas II was quite a competent ruler, and it led to the fall of the military coup, emerged from under kontroyalya and ending anarchy.

 

[Aley]

What also makes this premise problematic is that problems people had with Nicolas and his wife are hand-waved, I presume Rasputin would still be around with all of the problems he brought.

Well, no need to exaggerate the influence of Rasputin, it's all nonsense that he told journalists and then repeated. He did have some influence on the queen, but the king treated him with disdain and no did not listen to his advice.
The problem was that Rasputin stories about his connection with the queen published in the newspapers, and "bloody tyrant" instead of languages ​​journalists pull out, punches with them. "It's the same people." What gf people - journalists.

 

[BBadolato]

Nicholas II a competent ruler? I never knew White Kool Aid existed. Nicholas was a weak willed individual who largely listened to the whims of his uncles his mother and his wife, at least his mother of those people had an idea of what to do. Nicholas being a bloody tyrant was not fabrication due to him being weak willed if he actually stuck by the idea of the Tsar and People, he could of actually tried to listen to Father Gapon and earn credibility with the people.

Still even if there is no war in Europe why in the world would Great Britian let Japan go it alone if Russia is still a rival, the Anglo-Japanese alliance end by a changing situation in the world. If very little changes save no Great War I can only see the Russo-Japanse War part 2. If there's also tension between AH,Germany and Russia what if Germany decides to back Japan? The last time Wilhelm urged Nicholas on with his short victorious war Russia had most of it's fleet sunk and had the 1905 revolution. Would Nicholas even want to have another war in the far east considering what happened the last time?

 

[History_Pintobean]

IMHO it is highly unlikely that Russia would get involved in a second war against Japan assuming no WWI; case-in-point, the wounds resulting from the 1905 Russian Revolution still had not healed and wouldn't do so with such an incompetent ruler (i.e. Nicholas II) in charge.

Furthermore, its arguable whether or not the Czar's army or navy had significantly improved since 1905, and it certainly wasn't capable of fighting the Central Powers during WWI so why should it be able to fight well against Japan a second time?

And once the army and navy fails once again against Japan and Britain, the Czar's rule is finished a la the February Revolution of 1917.

Interesting concept IMHO, but problematic.

 

[Aley]

Nicholas II a competent ruler? I never knew White Kool Aid existed. Nicholas was a weak willed individual who largely listened to the whims of his uncles his mother and his wife, at least his mother of those people had an idea of what to do. Nicholas being a bloody tyrant was not fabrication due to him being weak willed if he actually stuck by the idea of the Tsar and People, he could of actually tried to listen to Father Gapon and earn credibility with the people.

Still even if there is no war in Europe why in the world would Great Britian let Japan go it alone if Russia is still a rival, the Anglo-Japanese alliance end by a changing situation in the world. If very little changes save no Great War I can only see the Russo-Japanse War part 2. If there's also tension between AH,Germany and Russia what if Germany decides to back Japan? The last time Wilhelm urged Nicholas on with his short victorious war Russia had most of it's fleet sunk and had the 1905 revolution. Would Nicholas even want to have another war in the far east considering what happened the last time?

This is not true. Nicholas was slandered, as is often the case with the rulers, who overthrew and killed. I will not say that he was a genius, but it was quite a competent monarch and not a pushover, as it is presented. His trouble was that he, being a religious man, believed his power comes from God and did not want to spend the necessary parliamentary reforms until it is not compelled to it. But a forced reform - a demonstration of the weakness of the ruler.
Bloody tyrant he had never been. Nicknamed "bloody" was awarded to him after the massive loss of life on Coronation celebrations. The people rushed for gratuitous food and crush hundreds of people died. It's his fault?
As for the January 9, 1905, when the people gave Gapon led a demonstration that ended with the shooting, then this Nicholas was not involved. He was in town residence - Tsarskoye Selo, and knew nothing. I think that the shooting was a provocation, which was designed to undermine the authority of the king. By the way, Gapon was an agent of the police.
If Nicholas was indeed a tyrant, it would sit quietly on the throne until his death.
Revenge against Japan in Russia really wanted to, even though such a war would have been possible only with complete peace in Europe.

 

[Aley]

IMHO it is highly unlikely that Russia would get involved in a second war against Japan assuming no WWI; case-in-point, the wounds resulting from the 1905 Russian Revolution still had not healed and wouldn't do so with such an incompetent ruler (i.e. Nicholas II) in charge.

Furthermore, its arguable whether or not the Czar's army or navy had significantly improved since 1905, and it certainly wasn't capable of fighting the Central Powers during WWI so why should it be able to fight well against Japan a second time?

And once the army and navy fails once again against Japan and Britain, the Czar's rule is finished a la the February Revolution of 1917.

Interesting concept IMHO, but problematic.

My opinion about Nicholas II, I already stated above, only add that as soon as he took over the position of Supreme Commander, the case went to the front immediately better, which has infuriated the generals - this colonel dare good guide!
Why is that Russia could not successfully fight against the Central Powers? Business at the front situation was quite normal that the Germans occupied Poland and part of the Baltic states, Russia was to mosquito bites. 1914-1915's defeat, the former fruit command of Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich, his adventures are a thing of the past, ammunition and weapons began to be delivered to the Army in sufficient quantity.
The February Revolution of 1917 was not a popular uprising and military coup that are out of the control of its management. It is now no longer any doubt among many historians. Generals hated the king and was going to replace Alexei it under the regency of Nikolai Nikolaevich.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I am looking for PODs that could make your assumptions work.

Lets assume that in 1908 Franz Josef DOES NOT annex Bosnia.

Some bad blood between Austria, Germany and Russia/UK would not happen (actually it would also have been better for Austria both economically and diplomatically not to annex, but thats hindsight ).

Lets assume that Russia wants access to to straits and tries to get it on the diplomatic table, but UK interferes (keeping the status quo) - So instead the Austrians (and Germans) being the ones acting against Russias interest, it would be UK. Lets further assume that Russia and A-H and Germany slowly defuse the tensions between the nations.

Russia then might grow cofident enough to assume that any action in the East would NOT provoke German/Austrian action against Russia (It did not in 1905). Austria could easily have issues with italy - so fighting in the east against russia would seen as unwuise in Vienna. Germany still would be facing France. UK is content that no nation in Europe is powerful enough that it can dominate all others...

You don't need to have Germany allied with Russia - Just make them "good neighbours".

Russia can still be allied with France and France still allied with UK, but relations between Russia and UK are not really good. Thus Germany would not feel that "encircled" as OTL.

Italy likely is wanting both Austrian AND French territory, so it might look to a "friend". In this constellation (and because of economic ties) the friend sought is likely UK. Accidentally this even might butterfly the Ottoman-Turkish war as UK might pressure Italy NOT to harm the OE. Ans this in return might also butterfly away the Balkan wars...

Generally speaking Europe is not as bipolar as OTL, so war is less likely.

Russia has the potential to become i(more) industrialized and can afford to build then intended military assets to attack Japan in 1919 (no fear of invoking the Anglo Japanese traety as this kicks in only if one side is facing MORE than one enemy).

In fact in the decade 1909-1919 UK might increasingly become wary of Russia becuse of Russias growing military (and economic) power - so Germany might seen as lesser threat over the time.

 

[David S Poepoe]

I don't see the Russians producing their 16in guns for a while. The powerful 14in guns that were to be used on the Izmail class battlecruisers were developed by Vickers IIRC.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

16" is a stretch goal that could possibly be achieved but 14" is more reasonable. Ther germans built in this timeframe the 38 cm SK L/45 a 15" gun. Assuming that Germany (Krupp) and UK (15" for R-class and QE-Class) were capable to build the world best guns it seems reasonable to assume the Russians would not be able to make better in the same timeframe. The Austrians had their 35cm Marinekanone L45 (14" more like 13,8) and the Italians worked on a 15"incher". The US had the 14" entering service in 1914 and were planning to use a 16" on the Lexingtons.

Given a peaceful 1914-1919 it COULD be possible that all those nations would be WORKING on 16" guns but honestly they would probably NOT be ready.