A world without the First World War. 1919 - the second Russian-Japanese War.

[Aley]

In 1912, the Russian Navy Department has received a top secret letter from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It said that in 1919 the deadline for the Anglo-Japanese military alliance and significant phrase: "We must be ready by then."
We can assume that had it not been World War, the Russian Empire would try to take revenge for the defeat of 1904-1905.
Bonuses Russia in this case:
1. Already the second track was paved Trans-Siberian Railway, and was finished building plot goes around the lake Baikal (during the Russian-Japanese war wagons transported by ferry across Lake Baikal). This allowed us to increase tenfold bandwidth Trans-Siberian Railway.
2. Russian army has fully completed the modernization and reorganization.
It was more difficult with the Navy. Although Russia was planning to lay the spring of 1915, four new ships of the line for the Baltic Fleet, armed twelve 16-inch guns in three turrets quadruple, and in 1917-1918 to lay another 4 battleships and four battlecruisers, only the first four would be ready in 1919 year. They added 4 battlecruisers such as "Izmail", which was certainly not enough against the Japanese fleet. But in late 1915 and early 1916., Planned to lay another 4 ships of the line from 12 16-inch guns, this time in a three-gun turrets, for the Black Sea Fleet. Chances are good that these battleships would be sent to the Far East.
They added 8 light cruisers "Svetlana", and their development in the Baltic Fleet and the same number in the Black Sea.
Who knows how it could turn wheel of history?

 

[Captain Jack]

OTL the Russians never built a battleship with anything larger than 12-inch guns. You're going to need serious changes to the entire Russian navy if you want them building 16-inchers in 1915. Also the 12x16 inch ships would be massive. Do the Russians even have any shipyards that could handle them? Finally, if the Russians are building 12(!) 16 inch battleships you can bet the Brits, Japanese, and Germans are going to respond with equivalent ships.

 

[Will Lucky]

You also have to take the Anglo-Japanese alliance into thought. If Russia is vastly expanding its navy at this level and declares war thats two reasons for Britain to get involved.

You may very well start the World War through that declaration.

 

[BBadolato]

How exactly is Russia going to stay out of The Great War if everything still happens the way it did, what about it's social problems and the Royal Family's popularity? I don't think the Anglo-Japanese alliance would expire if the political situation didn't change after World War One. Also whats to stop other sides from getting involved especially those who don't have anything to gain from a resurgent Russia.

 

[Captain Jack]

So I looked it up (http://www.gwpda.org/naval/irn16bb.htm was the only place I could find anything) and the Russians actually did plan these ships but the guns would have been designed by Vickers. Also worth noting is that these ships were very lightly armored. They had a main belt of 11 inches, the same thickness as on Dreadnought, the deck armor was going to be only 1.3 inches thick! Add to that the absence of any torpedo bulkhead at all and 25 knot speed. Basically these things were heavily armed but poorly armored and not all that fast. My money would be on a Nagato or Queen Elizabeth.

 

[Aley]

OTL the Russians never built a battleship with anything larger than 12-inch guns. You're going to need serious changes to the entire Russian navy if you want them building 16-inchers in 1915. Also the 12x16 inch ships would be massive. Do the Russians even have any shipyards that could handle them? Finally, if the Russians are building 12(!) 16 inch battleships you can bet the Brits, Japanese, and Germans are going to respond with equivalent ships.

Battle cruisers were built of "Izmail" with 14-inch guns. Their willingness by the time the revolution was very large. The project battleships with 16-inch has been designed.
Gun for them has been developed and tested.
By 1914, the Baltic Sea was built two new large private factory Putilovskaya shipyard in St. Petersburg and the plant in Revel (now Tallinn). The number of stocks for large ships had been brought up to 8. In the Black Sea had two large private factory, with 3 large slipway.
Displacement new battleships was 35,000 tons

 

[Aley]

How exactly is Russia going to stay out of The Great War if everything still happens the way it did, what about it's social problems and the Royal Family's popularity? I don't think the Anglo-Japanese alliance would expire if the political situation didn't change after World War One. Also whats to stop other sides from getting involved especially those who don't have anything to gain from a resurgent Russia.

I mean one in which the First World War in general would not take place.

 

[Aley]

You also have to take the Anglo-Japanese alliance into thought. If Russia is vastly expanding its navy at this level and declares war thats two reasons for Britain to get involved.

You may very well start the World War through that declaration.

This is an option, but in this case, Russia is an ally of Germany. Does this help the British?

 

[Aley]

So I looked it up (http://www.gwpda.org/naval/irn16bb.htm was the only place I could find anything) and the Russians actually did plan these ships but the guns would have been designed by Vickers. Also worth noting is that these ships were very lightly armored. They had a main belt of 11 inches, the same thickness as on Dreadnought, the deck armor was going to be only 1.3 inches thick! Add to that the absence of any torpedo bulkhead at all and 25 knot speed. Basically these things were heavily armed but poorly armored and not all that fast. My money would be on a Nagato or Queen Elizabeth.

Add the internal armor belt 3 inches behind the main, 11-inch armor. A similar system, albeit with a smaller thickness of the second armored bulkhead was used by the Japanese on the battleships of "Tosa", which were built after the "Nagato".
Lack protivotorpednoy armored bulkhead serious disadvantage, but he could not tell.
This is the upper armored deck. The thickness of the main deck 3 inches.

 

[Genmotty]

The Great War in our timeline was an opertunity for Imperial Japan to expand on its annexation of Korea and begin to make in roads into bringing China firmly into the Japanese 'empire'.

The only thing that hurt Imperial Japan, was that post war treaties would return much that was taken to other hands.


However without the Great War there is no pretext for a 'Conservative Nationalist' Imperial Japan to take German holdings in the far east like it did in our time line.

This means that during the 1910s, Imperial Japan will likely to continue its millitary-economic build up much like it had done since the 1880s. This time however there is no 'costly war' (because Japanese Great War endeours were not cheap), nor is their war profiteering. This likely puts Imperial Japan on a much stronger millitary-industrial footing come the late 1910s or early 1920s.

In fact the Japanese army might openly welcome Russian sabre rattling, and might play on it both internationally or use it as leverage to gain support for being the premier power in the far east. Not only might this be a POD where the Anglo-Japanese Allience remains, it may also turn into a 'First World War' where this time the catalyst is in the east.


It is more than likely that Imperial Japan even on its own would have been able to 'pacify China' before the mid 1920s, and likewise Russia is in no position of strenght either.

A specific senario would be needed to estimate the likely butterflys, but this could be a rather serious Japano-wank.

 

[Fenrir_Angerboda]

I suppose my question here is why is Japan suddenly Russian enemy number #1?

What happened to Germany and Austria-Hungary?

 

[Aley]

I suppose my question here is why is Japan suddenly Russian enemy number #1?

What happened to Germany and Austria-Hungary?

Russia at that time was not lost ambitions with regard to the Far East. And the memory of the Russian-Japanese to stay long. Even in 1945, the war was perceived by the people as a revenge for 1904.

I also think it unlikely the absence of war in Europe, but all of a sudden? Suddenly able to agree.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I think you easily can butterfly away the assassination of Franz Ferdinand - this would at leas "delay" an European war. IIRC the Serbian ambassador to Vienna claimed that the "warned" the Austrian authorites that holding maneuvers in Bosnia will spark nationalist activities and danger to FF. Lets just assume that FF does not supervise the maneuvers. He will live. (a few weeks befor this he was in his Bohemian castle and enjoyed the visit of Kaiser Wilhelm - they were personal friends - if Willi extends the vist....)

Assumeing that the Great War was not inevitable A Russian (naval) buildup might please Germany (money running in the navy does not run into the army).

I am looking forward to see how it unfolds...

 

[Aley]

I think you easily can butterfly away the assassination of Franz Ferdinand - this would at leas "delay" an European war. IIRC the Serbian ambassador to Vienna claimed that the "warned" the Austrian authorites that holding maneuvers in Bosnia will spark nationalist activities and danger to FF. Lets just assume that FF does not supervise the maneuvers. He will live. (a few weeks befor this he was in his Bohemian castle and enjoyed the visit of Kaiser Wilhelm - they were personal friends - if Willi extends the vist....)

Assumeing that the Great War was not inevitable A Russian (naval) buildup might please Germany (money running in the navy does not run into the army).

I am looking forward to see how it unfolds...

I do not think. that here it was only in the Archduke - they all wanted to do some fighting too.
Russian army pervooruzhalas regardless of the fleet, did not even have time to master the allotted funds. But at the same envious eyes staring at the fleet - like them, then the money for?

 

[Will Lucky]

This is an option, but in this case, Russia is an ally of Germany. Does this help the British?

Russia was an ally of France, not Germany. And in the original Russian-Japanese War, France didn't interfere out of fear of the British entering the war.

At this point odds are the Triple Alliance is still in place between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy non of who have reasons to interfere.

You'd need to somehow get Russia into the Alliance, or have Germany make a separate agreement. And considering Russia is allied to France that makes that somewhat difficult.

 

[Aley]

Russia was an ally of France, not Germany. And in the original Russian-Japanese War, France didn't interfere out of fear of the British entering the war.

At this point odds are the Triple Alliance is still in place between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy non of who have reasons to interfere.

You'd need to somehow get Russia into the Alliance, or have Germany make a separate agreement. And considering Russia is allied to France that makes that somewhat difficult.

Everything changes: one friend today - tomorrow the enemy and vice versa.
Italy was an ally of the Central Powers, and fought on the side of the Allies.

 

[lukedalton]

Everything changes: one friend today - tomorrow the enemy and vice versa.
Italy was an ally of the Central Powers, and fought on the side of the Allies.

But a change of this kind don't happen out of the blue.

Continuing the example of Italy, by 1914 the alliance was basically dead as for the last decades Rome and Vienna had seen the distance between them growing for a number of factor and even in this case a neutrality favoring the CP was almost achieved.

Frankly i don't see France and Russia part way in the same manner, expecially with A-H having her problem with Russia (Galicia and slavic irredentism just to make an example).

 

[Aley]

But a change of this kind don't happen out of the blue.

Continuing the example of Italy, by 1914 the alliance was basically dead as for the last decades Rome and Vienna had seen the distance between them growing for a number of factor and even in this case a neutrality favoring the CP was almost achieved.

Frankly i don't see France and Russia part way in the same manner, expecially with A-H having her problem with Russia (Galicia and slavic irredentism just to make an example).

Colleague, I am aware that the probability of such an alternative is vanishingly small, just imagine: if the First World War in general would not be? For example, managed to agree on most issues What could have happened in this case. So I remembered about revenge plans of Russia.
The desire of Russia to unite the Slavic peoples, must be considered in the overall military manner. Yes Russia was spit on those same people, by and large, simply promoting the propaganda.

 

[Fenrir_Angerboda]

Everything changes: one friend today - tomorrow the enemy and vice versa.
Italy was an ally of the Central Powers, and fought on the side of the Allies.

The problem here is that there is no real reason for Russia to suddenly abandon her alliance with France to team up with Germany.

 

[Aley]

The problem here is that there is no real reason for Russia to suddenly abandon her alliance with France to team up with Germany.

Cancel the threat of European war, can not be a reason for this?