Politically, Bush is probably just a one-term President. The economy was heading for a minor recession prior to 9/11, which led to a market downturn but not the recession itself. That probably becomes a bigger issue in 2002 than it was in OTL, thus leading to a bad midterm result for the Republicans. The Democrats gain between four and five seats in the Senate (possibly even Texas, which was very close in the polling between Big John Cornyn and Ron Kirk). They gain a majority which effectively blocks any major legislation passed between 2002 and 2004. The Democrats also retake the House, meaning that Dick Gephardt becomes Speaker (take away whatever you want from that).
In 2004, Bush campaigns largely on traditional Republican issues such as taxes, moral values, and Social Security reform. He also touches on immigration as an issues to woo Latino voters. The Democrats probably nominate a domestic policy candidate rather than Kerry, whose expertise was and still is foreign policy. Maybe Tom Daschle, Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd run. I doubt very much Hillary or Gore, as both had good reasons not to seek the Presidency (and Gore was in his crazy stage). If the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, than they can defeat Bush in a close election by attacking his proposals for Social Security and the weak economy. After that, it's anyone's guess as to what could happen.
In 2004, Bush campaigns largely on traditional Republican issues such as taxes, moral values, and Social Security reform. He also touches on immigration as an issues to woo Latino voters. The Democrats probably nominate a domestic policy candidate rather than Kerry, whose expertise was and still is foreign policy. Maybe Tom Daschle, Joe Biden, or Chris Dodd run. I doubt very much Hillary or Gore, as both had good reasons not to seek the Presidency (and Gore was in his crazy stage). If the Democrats nominate a strong candidate, than they can defeat Bush in a close election by attacking his proposals for Social Security and the weak economy. After that, it's anyone's guess as to what could happen.