A WI for the Second Mexican Empire

I'm planning a TL at the moment and I need a reality check on something. Through a set of PODs that really take off in the 1830s within the US, the US goes into Mexico and takes a larger chunk of it. Basically everything that would had been US in the long run aka the Gadsden Purchase and Mexican Cession, and OTL Northwest and Northeast Mexico. Yes I know that cuts a shit load of Mexico and makes it American.

But anyhow, the French still go into Mexico after the ACW breaks out under the same thing they did OTL. With out the northern part of Mexico to run, could France get Mexico to the point that Maximilian's rule in Mexico would be stable and fully defeat Republican forces in Mexico?
 
I'm planning a TL at the moment and I need a reality check on something. Through a set of PODs that really take off in the 1830s within the US, the US goes into Mexico and takes a larger chunk of it. Basically everything that would had been US in the long run aka the Gadsden Purchase and Mexican Cession, and OTL Northwest and Northeast Mexico. Yes I know that cuts a shit load of Mexico and makes it American.

But anyhow, the French still go into Mexico after the ACW breaks out under the same thing they did OTL. With out the northern part of Mexico to run, could France get Mexico to the point that Maximilian's rule in Mexico would be stable and fully defeat Republican forces in Mexico?

Assuming all that extra territory captured became slave states (due to the Missouri Compromise), why would the South feel the need to secede like OTL? They have more congressmen and senators on their side, so they wouldn't fear free soil and abolitionist politicians as much.

It could lead to rising liberal sentiments rather than weakening them. Benito Juárez became president not long after Santa Anna was overthrown. After all, they could blame him for the disaster of the OTL Mexican War.

The French intervention that put Maximilian on the throne was a plan of Napoleon III to counter British influence in the Americas. Such a POD could mean he never gains power in the first place. However, there were still monarchists in Mexico, so maybe someone else gets the same idea? It's not like Mexico is in much of a position to stop an invasion in its ATL shabby state. There were monarchists in Mexico during and after independence. Remember that they tried to get a Spanish prince to become a constitutional monarch under the Plan of Iguala, but none would accept the offer.

Mexico would also lose significant parts of its economy. One of the conditions France imposed on Mexico was a lien on the mines in Sonora, which would be taken by the U.S. in ATL.



See The Penguin History of Latin America and Maximilian in Mexico A Woman's Reminiscences of the French Intervention 1862-1867 for more info. Both have Kindle editions, and the latter is free.
 
Assuming all that extra territory captured became slave states (due to the Missouri Compromise), why would the South feel the need to secede like OTL? They have more congressmen and senators on their side, so they wouldn't fear free soil and abolitionist politicians as much.
Yeah they would become slave states, but I figure you would get the Bleeding of the Rio Grande as well as the Bleeding of Kansas from OTL. Then throw in the fact Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware started down the path to being free states in the 1830s and 40s pre-Mexican American War the Deep South would have about the same or less power than OTL and they would still breakaway just without Virginia this time. It was one of the reasons the US grabbed so much more of Mexico this time around.

It could lead to rising liberal sentiments rather than weakening them. Benito Juárez became president not long after Santa Anna was overthrown. After all, they could blame him for the disaster of the OTL Mexican War.

The French intervention that put Maximilian on the throne was a plan of Napoleon III to counter British influence in the Americas. Such a POD could mean he never gains power in the first place. However, there were still monarchists in Mexico, so maybe someone else gets the same idea? It's not like Mexico is in much of a position to stop an invasion in its ATL shabby state. There were monarchists in Mexico during and after independence. Remember that they tried to get a Spanish prince to become a constitutional monarch under the Plan of Iguala, but none would accept the offer.

Mexico would also lose significant parts of its economy. One of the conditions France imposed on Mexico was a lien on the mines in Sonora, which would be taken by the U.S. in ATL.



See The Penguin History of Latin America and Maximilian in Mexico A Woman's Reminiscences of the French Intervention 1862-1867 for more info. Both have Kindle editions, and the latter is free.
The butterflies start in the 1800. But the POD is a fairly small one and nothing really changes till the 1830s. But I figure with the butterflies being the way they are falling Europe really doesn't get hit by anything big till the 1850s. So Nappy III still comes to power. And with his background and personally I think he would still try for Mexico. If nothing more than in a effort to repair his relations with the Austrians and an effort to check the growing power of the US ITL.

But Like I said could France remove of Republican Forces in ITL Mexico in a four year period from about 1862-66? TO the point the Second Mexican Empire would had been stable enough that it could be recognized by European Powers outside of France?
 
Assuming all that extra territory captured became slave states (due to the Missouri Compromise)

the Missouri Compromise did not apply to the Mexican Cession. in 1861, none of those areas would be states yet, and slavery had been abolished in those areas since the 1830s. It's unlikely they'd be any friendlier to slavery than OTL New Mexico, which had almost no slaves in it in 1860.
 
so....this essentially?
pwXoy.jpg
 
the Missouri Compromise did not apply to the Mexican Cession. in 1861, none of those areas would be states yet, and slavery had been abolished in those areas since the 1830s. It's unlikely they'd be any friendlier to slavery than OTL New Mexico, which had almost no slaves in it in 1860.
There would be the whole crazy idea about popular sovereignty over slavery. But the people in Mexico who would have become American would be anti-slavery fighting a southern flood as they try to get these areas to become slave states.

so....this essentially?
pwXoy.jpg

Close but no.

Also can I get an answer to my question about the French in Mexico?
 
the Missouri Compromise did not apply to the Mexican Cession. in 1861, none of those areas would be states yet, and slavery had been abolished in those areas since the 1830s. It's unlikely they'd be any friendlier to slavery than OTL New Mexico, which had almost no slaves in it in 1860.

True. New Mexico and Arizona didn't become states until 1912. But this is also an ATL, so there could be a bigger push to make states in the region than in OTL.

I mentioned the loss of the northern Mexican mines being a factor, so France may leave earlier due to not being able to exploit as many resources. If the ATL Civil War drags on longer (or the South wins), perhaps they could stay later.
 
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