A White Victory

While theoretically under Kolchak authority, Semionov was actually ruling Transbaïkalia as an independent Warlord. And he has japanese backing. I don't see him simply kowtowing to the Moscow clique. He will, definitely, but not altogether spontaneously.

And yeah, if one writes a Civil War TL, one must deal with the mad baron :D
 
The Whites right now are definitely weaker at the moment of their victory than the Bolsheviks were at the moment of theirs (the Red Army at the end of the ACW numbered in the millions, IIRC) and Iudenich especially is dependent on foreign support.

Plus Kolchak might come down on Iudenich. Although we know this was decisive in actually winning, Kolchak might think Deniken could have carried the day on his own.

Re-establishing authority over the periphery might take some time, assuming the White coalition can stay united.

Hmm...the Japanese "Far Eastern Republic" lasts longer and ultimately is resolved by a Second Russo-Japanese War?
 
Hmm...the Japanese "Far Eastern Republic" lasts longer and ultimately is resolved by a Second Russo-Japanese War?

Why are assuming that the relations between the victorious Whites and the Japanese Empire will be as bad or worse than they were between the Bolsheviks and Japan?
As long as the new Russian state is as cooperative as the Russian Empire was, Japan has no good reason to support separatism in the Russian Far East.
 
Why are assuming that the relations between the victorious Whites and the Japanese Empire will be as bad or worse than they were between the Bolsheviks and Japan?
As long as the new Russian state is as cooperative as the Russian Empire was, Japan has no good reason to support separatism in the Russian Far East.

Because the Whites are weaker at this point than the Bolsheviks were in OTL 1922.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Why are assuming that the relations between the victorious Whites and the Japanese Empire will be as bad or worse than they were between the Bolsheviks and Japan?
As long as the new Russian state is as cooperative as the Russian Empire was, Japan has no good reason to support separatism in the Russian Far East.
The relations between Japan and the Russian Empire was not exactly good. However we can assume both Japan and Russia are eager to at least have cordial relations after the Civil War.
I could see Semionov becoming the "governor of autonomous Transnaikalia". That would mean no official secession, but would in practice mean he rule the territory as an autocrat (with unofficial Japanese backing).
 
That does not answer my question and is actually another reason why there won't be another Russo-Japanese War in this scenario.

There won't be another Russo-Japanese War in this scenario YET. Just because the Whites are weak now doesn't mean they'll always be that way.

Furthermore, the Japanese made an opportunistic territory grab OTL. Here they'll have a better chance at keeping it than facing the Red Army on one hand and the disapproval of the U.S. on the other.
 
The hollow victory – Reigning on a graveyard

“I didn’t want to have anything to do with a man who had betrayed the integrity of the Russian Empire; that is all”.
- Admiral Kolchak, to British journalist Peter Fleming, 1934.

“The Grand-duke Nikolaï has given me the command of all the country up to Zakramouransk, with the order of fighting the jew Kolchak and his evil clique! For the Soviets and the Land ! Death to the yids and the bourjouis!”
- Bogomilov, peasant ringleader, central Siberia, winter 1920.

November 1919 – January 1920: The remaining areas of Central Russia under Bolshevik control are progressively cleared by the White armies, with the exception of Astrakhan, which successfully repels the half-hearted attempts of the Don Cossacks. Elsewhere, cities fall with relative easiness. More often than not, Left SRs and Mensheviks take power before the Whites attack, but this doesn’t prevent massive massacres and pogroms. In other cities like Yaroslavl, the Reds proceed to leave only corpses behind them, which leads to even bloodier pogroms perpetrated by the Whites. The 10 December, Kolchak finally reaches Moscow, while the most of his troops are still fighting a Bolshevik revolt in the southern Urals.



Winter 1919-1920 – An Etat des lieux

Structure of the new régime

During the month of December, the principles of the new régime are established. The generals see themselves as a provisional dictatorship, retaining power only as long as “Russia’s situation needs it”. There is no more reference to the Constituent Assembly but in the vaguest terms of “restoring Russia’s freedom” etc.


Admiral Kolchak has retained his title of Supreme Ruler of All Russias and is officially considered as Chief of State. But Kolchak is little more than a figurehead (after all, he didn’t win the Civil War): the real supreme power lies in the so-called “Supreme Council of National Unity”, an assembly of high-ranked officers. In December 1919, its composition is the following one:
First, Denikin and his close allies, Lukomsky, Dragomirov, and Romanovsky. Wrangel, the bitterest rival of Denikin, is also on board, because he is simply too popular among the officers and right-wing conservatives to be left at bay. Kolchak manages to impose his loyal Dietricks, but his former chief of staff Lebedev is too discredited to be on board. Despite the fierce opposition of Kolchak against the man who surrendered Finland, Yudenich is confirmed as Military Governor of Petrograd and promoted as member of the Supreme Council in absentia. This is not only a blatant rebuff for Kolchak; this is also a elegant way of deterring Yudenich to play his own game with Finnish support. Miller (who is busy fighting a Left-SR uprising in Yaroslavl), is added as well, mostly because of his (supposed) good relations with Britain. The first hint of the forthcoming “Cossack crisis” appears when General Sidorin, head of the Don Army, refuses flatly to join the Council, arguing that his voisko doesn’t allow him to do so.



The Ministries are mere administrative departments, closely subordinated to the Supreme Council. With the exception of Lukomsky, Ministers are rather non-descript right-wing Kadets or conservatives politicians. They are as ineffectual and powerless as they were in Ekaterinodar or Omsk while in charge of the White administration. Pepelyaev, the Prime Minister of Kolchak, is promoted at the head of this hollow government, a small consolation prize for Kolchak's clique, which on the whole feels ill-treated by the Southerners.


The weakness of the new government is also aggravated by the fact that soon enough nearly every member of the Supreme Council receives other attributions, another proof that the White generals see themselves as soldiers, and clearly not as politicians. For example, Denikin is made Supreme Commander of the Russian Armies with Romanovsky remaining his Chief of Staff. Wrangel is promoted to the head of the South-Russian Armies (i.e. Volunteers, Caucasus and Don). Dietricks is appointed to the Eastern Armies. Lukomsky becomes Ministry of War (and thus the only member of the Supreme Council being also at the head of a minister).

That is well and good, but outside the wall of the Kremlin (how ironic that Kolchak and his colleagues are seating just where seated Lenin and his evil cronies), the situation is dire indeed: the amount of internal issues would in itself be overwhelming for the best government. And there is a reasonable amount of foreign threats, of course.


Central Russia and Little Russia

First of all, the grip of the junta over Russia is all but firm. Massive uprisings of peasants are erupting all across the country. The whole Tambov area, for example, is governed by an independent “Peasants’ Soviet Republic”. The situation is no better in Ukraine: anarchists and peasants rebels like Makhno are spreading everywhere, while the northwestern part is under control of Polish forces, from where Petliura’s nationalists are agitating in Russian-held Ukraine. Whites are no more popular in the cities. The first arrivals of food from Ukraine and Kuban have at first led workers to begrudgingly accept the new régime, but as Ukraine is falling into anarchy, shortage of food appears again, and discontent naturally follows.

These social emotions are of course stirred up by leftist parties, with different aims. For the Left SRs and the Bolsheviks, the goal is simply to continue the fight, while for Right SRs and Mensheviks; it is a way to force the White junta to hold their promise of a Constituent Assembly.

Warlordism is also observed. Bulak-Balakovich has settled in Minsk, where he acts as a quasi-independent ruler. There is much talk of his intrigues with Lithuania and the Belarus People’s Republic in exile. Bermondt-Avalov has established himself in Pskov, where he gives asylum to Baltic Germans fleeing Estlandia and Latvia.

Politicians are reappearing everywhere, very much to the grief of the Supreme Council, who expected at least a year of “quiet rule”. Right SRs are the most vocal, because of all the socialist parties they were the less affected by the repression. They ask for an immediate convocation of the Constituent Assembly, and now that Bolshevism has fallen, some of them are already allying themselves with their leftist counterpart in order to agitate against the Supreme Council. Mensheviks, now in a key position among the workers, are spreading revolutionary calls in the factories, while negotiating secretly with the Right SRs and the Kadets.

The Kadets are in an ambiguous situation. They have no overwhelming sympathy for the militarist junta, they are craving for a strong civilian government and a parlementarian régime, but on the other hand they perfectly know that in a Constituent election without any stolypinian “corrective”, they would do pretty badly. Hence a two-faced tactic. On one hand they are servilely supporting the Supreme Council in its will of delaying the election, while on the other they are intriguing with the left parties in order to not be pushed aside when the day of forming a democratic government will come.

Political activity in the cities is rising as the Civil war goes to its end. Politic parties and intelligentsy try to recreate a civil society.

This leads us to another point: the return of the émigrés.
Most of the émigrés who made it to Europe are not yet coming back: they’re currently considering doing so. It will take some months in any case. But there are thousands of people who went no further than Kiev or Odessa or Ekaterinodar or Novorossiisk or Riga or Helsingfors or Omsk, and they are coming back. Which is just what Russia didn’t need at the moment. Aristocrats are returning to their estates, often accompanied by White soldiers hired as a private militia: either the peasants submit and surrender the lands to their rightful owner, or they rise in rebellion and put an axe in the said-owner’s head: in any case, this is not helping appeasing the situation in the campaigns.
The return of the bourgeoisie in the cities is not as worrisome. Here, after two years of Bolshevik reign (understand: slavery), the workers are not too much troubled by the return of the owners. Well, they certainly are, but not enough to enter in open rebellion. There are indeed some protests and strikes, but nothing like the soon-to-be Petrograd uprising of spring 1920.


The army: The White armies are not in good shape. Conscripts are deserting en masse to return to their villages. A lot of officers, already no too much preoccupied of fighting during the War, are now busy making a living out of the new situation. Corruption, already humungous during the conflict, is reaching new heights. Officers ! They are everywhere (but in the army), trading the remaining Allies stocks before they disappear, smoothly extorting people, bourjouis and common folk alike.
No wonder that the fighting spirit of the troops is declining steadily, without even considering the Cossack crisis. The decline of the White army will prove to be a major problem for the Supreme Council in the forthcoming months.


To follow: A survey of the (not-so) ‘peripheral’ issues. There will be plentiful of Cossacks, threatening Polacks, not-so friendly Finns, Transcaucasian stuff, diplomatic shenanigans and Transsiberian thugs.
 
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There won't be another Russo-Japanese War in this scenario YET. Just because the Whites are weak now doesn't mean they'll always be that way.

Exactly, why would the Japanese Empire needlessly provoke the new Russian state?
We are talking about the Japan of the 1920s whose foreign policy was still fairly reasonable.

Furthermore, the Japanese made an opportunistic territory grab OTL.

Not even North Sakhalin was annexed IOTL. As long as Japan gets some concessions, no outright territorial grabs will happen.

Here they'll have a better chance at keeping it than facing the Red Army on one hand and the disapproval of the U.S. on the other.

Being less of a pariah than Soviet Russia will result in more international disapproval of Japan's military involvement in the Russian Far East and the new Russian state will benefit from it.
 

OS fan

Banned
You are making some good points here. In the opast, I started two discussions about a White victory in the Russian Civil War too, albeit without result.

Better. You could have a PoD with Denikin winning at Orel by not splitting his forces (which he did OTL due to Machno's rebellion; this can be prevented by severing the Trotsky-Machno connection or a Poland-Whites alliance).

This would indeed have helped. Poland made a grave mistake not joining the war against the reds.
 
Poland made a grave mistake not joining the war against the reds.

That a state ran by Bolsheviks would be nastier then one run by whites was hardly obvious in 1919. From the Poles' point of view, the most important difference was be that Poland's allies in the west would have had a lot less sympathy towards a Red Russia then a white one. To change this attitude you probably need a PoD which prevents Piłsudski from taking charge in Poland.
 

Gregorius

Banned
This would indeed have helped. Poland made a grave mistake not joining the war against the reds.
Many believed that Bolsheviks were incompetent fools and would permanently ruin the country.
The Whites did talk with Poles but they were too undecided on status of Polish borders-they were willing to accept a Polish state but on Bug river, which Pilsudski wouldn't accept.

For Poland to support decisively a White faction, you would need Endecja to be in charge. They were pro-Russian, part of Russian Duma before the war, and more national-conservative so they hated Bolsheviks.

OTOH Poland probably would be more like Salazar's Portugal or Spain soon.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
This would indeed have helped. Poland made a grave mistake not joining the war against the reds.
Depends, on one hand they were almost conquered if it wasn't for the miracle at Vistula, on the other hand they ended up expanding their territory eastwards.
 

MSZ

Banned
Many believed that Bolsheviks were incompetent fools and would permanently ruin the country.
The Whites did talk with Poles but they were too undecided on status of Polish borders-they were willing to accept a Polish state but on Bug river, which Pilsudski wouldn't accept.

For Poland to support decisively a White faction, you would need Endecja to be in charge. They were pro-Russian, part of Russian Duma before the war, and more national-conservative so they hated Bolsheviks.

Problem here - the Whites weren't decided what to do with Poland at any point, the "Poland in Congress Poland borders" idea coming up really late, when the whites were already gone. Denikin's journals give a good impression on just how detached the Whites were regarding the Poles - Denikin being unwilling even to recognize Poland's western borders (Greater Poland and Galicia which Poland already held), not offering any guarantees about Poland's future status (claiming he had no competence in deciding that), and making a really big faux pas when he demanded that the cities "liberated" by the Poles have the Tzarist symbols restored (yeah, he demanded that Pilsudski, the man who was sent to Siberia by the Tzar, fought against the regime for decades, place the two-headed eagle in Vilnus, his home town. Not something that gives a good impression).

And the Polish nationalists weren't really very pro-Russian - they were back when there was a Russia and no Poland, but by 1919 the situation has reversed. Hatred for the bolsheviks was universal among just about all non-communists in Europe. From the Polish perspective, it makes no difference if Russia is red or white.

If the civil war is mostly over in 1919 and Poland has no deal on the border with Russia, war will be inevitable. I suspect the Poles might have taken control over moreof territories than OTL if Bulak-Balakovich is the warlord of Minsk - the idea of his "independent Belarus" to act as buffer state against Russia might be realised depending how the war goes. Same with Petlura in the Ukraine.
 
Annex: It has to be noted that during the months of November-December 1919, the disintegration of the Red Army was not primarily obtained through military victory. First, massive desertions took a heavy toll on the Red Army after the White victory of Tula, and became quasi general in the weeks before the fall of Moscow. Secondly, sizeable red troops, often commanded by ex-czarist officers, rallied the victors with relative ease, which temporarily boosted the numbers of the White army, before desertions and self-demobilization did their part in the decline of the White army. Thirdly, lot of krasnoarmeyetsi didn’t quite desert but entered into partizanchtchina. Needless to say that the difference between desertion and anti-White guerilla proved to be highly theoretical.

Nevertheless, the Whites had the occasion to score some epic (but easy) victories against the dwindling red armies during the winter 1919. It was notably the case near Vyatka where, after aborted negotiations with influential KD Astrov, the remnants of Budienni’s Konarmia were engaged in a pitched battle by the Cossacks of Shkuro and Mamontov. In what was the last cavalry battle of the Russian Civil War, the Cossacks scored an overwhelming victory, utterly destroying the demoralized “proletarians on horse” and killing Budienni on the field. Widely echoed by White propaganda, this victory enhanced notably the reputation of Mamontov and Shkuro who, despite having been little than magnificent thugs during the Civil War, gained a huge popularity both among the White officers and the Cossack Voiskos. They would play an instrumental role in the forthcoming events.


Winter 1919-1920 – The borders

“Yes, yes, I remember Monsieur de Ioudenitch. It was a pitiful sight indeed, this old man sitting there alone, contemplating sadly his verre de rouge, with all la misère du monde in his eyes”.
- Serge, French waiter, Paris, 1925. With an obnoxious French accent, of course.


“He presided over a raffish court in an atmosphere of laziness, rodomontade, alcohol, lucrative requisitions, dirty money and the killing of the innocent”.
- Quoted in: D. Footman, Ataman Semenov, unpublished. (This is more or less an actual quote OTL)


Far Eastern
In January 1920, an independent Far-Eastern Republic was proclaimed by the local authorities of Vladivostok, with obvious Japanese support. The Far-Eastern government was an uneasy coalition of Kadets and moderate Socialists whose only purpose was to act as a buffer-state between Japan and Russia, which Japan had no desire to see reunited. The Japanese government expected the Far-Eastern Republic to have amiable relations with Russia, but things rapidly went out of control, as more and more Left-SRs and Bolsheviks from Siberia fled to Vladivostok and started conspiring to settle a new Soviet state there, while conservatives and right-wing Kadets were loudly advocating reunification with Russia. After the last American troops had left Vladivostok on February 1920, Japan remained as the sole foreign occupant in Far-Eastern.



Transbaïkal
When Moscow fell, Ataman Semionov had sent his most sincere congratulations to his theoretical chief Kolchak (though it should have sounded like a bad joke, since at the time of Moscow’s fall, Kolchak was like 500 miles away from the Capital). But the despot of Chita was not ready to give up his power and to merge his fiefdom into a reunited Russia. He had had too much fun ruling Transbaïkal to give it up. Moreover, he knew perfectly that there was no place for him in a peaceful, reunited Russia. He was not one of these haughty Russian officers; he didn’t belong to their world. Half-Cossack half-Buryat, Semionov had little perspective of career under the new regime: he was definitely the kind of human being who thrives on chaos and crisis. He knew that he had at least some months before the Muscovite junta being able to assert control over Transbaïkal. And indeed for the moment the Supreme Council was happy enough with purely formal submission from the unruly Ataman. But both knew that this situation was hardly satisfactory for Moscow and that one day this would end. As he couldn’t count on his Japanese protectors anymore, who were focusing on their new Far-Eastern toy, Semionov had to be fare-sighted. When the day would come, in which direction could he possibly go to perpetuate his reign?

- Masha ?, he asked to his Jewish mistress, Masha Sharaban.
- Hmm ?, a sleepy voice answered.
- Would you like to see… Mongolia ?


Central Asia
Stalin, Dzerzhinsky and other preeminent Bolsheviks have fled to Central Asia, where they try to enforce a Bolshevik government-in-exile, without much success: the Bolsheviks-hold on Kazakhstan is tenuous at best: people there don’t seem preoccupied about Russian affairs. No better in the south: since the fall of Moscow, the Turkestan Autonomous Soviet Republic is disintegrating at fast pace. The collaboration between Uzbeks and Turkmens is more and more theoretical every day. Elsewhere Tajiks are fighting against Uzbeks. An anti-Bolshevik uprising has already ousted the Soviets from Bukhara. Nevertheless, the Bolsheviks manage to stay at the head of the Turkestan ASR and in several areas of Kazakhstan. In January 1920, Stalin and Dzerzhinsky issue a manifest stating that the struggle is far from over, and call the people to adopt “partizanchtchina” (partisan warfare) in order to fight against the reactionary clique of Denikin. Bolshevik Central Asia (or what is left from it) is not an actual threat for Russia, except as a moral rallying point and stimulus for partisans across the country.



Transcaucasia
The transcaucasian republics are not going to play a relevant role in immediate Russian history. Azerbaijan is embittered in a civil turmoil opposing Tatars and Turkish to Armenians. The Democratic Republic of Armenia has her eyes turned south, hoping to benefit from the Ottoman Empire’s current situation, which is more than worse. Georgia is probably the most interested in Russian affairs. In Georgia the Mensheviks have succeeded in building a viable State, uniting the rural masses and the little nobility into a national idea directed against Armenians and Russians. The Georgian government has a somewhat paranoid fear of Russia, whatever its colour, a fear that the outspoken commitment of Denikin to Great Russia didn’t help to appease. Hence, Georgia is currently granting asylum to Bolsheviks and Left SRs fleeing Russia, among them their compatriot Ordjonikidze, who has rapidly gained an important position in the Menshevik Republic, entertaining even more its anti-Russian psyche.* Despite this, it is hardly probable that Georgia will actually enter in open conflict against White Russia.

* How ironic, when in OTL Ordjonikidze was instrumental in the annexation of his homeland by Soviet Union.


Baltic States
Estonia (or Estlandia, for the Whites) and Latvia may be compared to Georgia in that regard that they fear White Russia even more than they feared the Red one, but that they can’t do much about it for the moment, except engaging diplomatic contacts in order to get recognition from the new rulers. The Estonian government had entertained good relations with Yudenich when Red Russia was an immediate threat, but that, well, that means quite nothing in the current situation. Had not Bermondt-Avalov’s northwestern Volunteers Army attacked Lithuania and Latvia in the very days when Yudenich was preparing his rush on Petrograd? The same Bermondt-Avalov who is now installed in Pskov with his troops, giving shelter to Baltic Germans and the remnants of the Iron Division ? Estonia and Latvia can understandably be anxious. Neither is Lithuania well-disposed against Russia, but the Lithuanian government has another source of concerns, namely, Poland. Lithuanian’s relations with its powerful neighbor were not unfriendly in the darkest hours of the Lithuanian-Soviet war, but things have changed: Lithuania doesn’t share a border with Russia anymore, and the Polish presence in Vilna is the chief concern of resentment among Lithuania’s governing circles.


Finland
Finnish troops are still occupying Wall Street Petrograd. Officially, they remain there to help Yudenich to control the city, but the Finnish government wants to subordinate their leave to the official recognition of Finnish Independence by Russia (somewhere the Finns got the idea that Yudenich’s move was not altogether straight) and the cession of about two-third of Eastern-Karelia, which Yudenich never clearly promised, but that the Finnish government feels entitled to claim through some kind of wishful misunderstanding.*

When the Finnish demands reached Moscow, they met incredulity and outrage. The Supreme Council may have been led to recognize Finland, but the aforementioned territorial claims were a total impossibility for Kolchak, Denikin and their colleagues. The scandal was so loud that Yudenich was forced to resign: he left Russia on a Danish boat, never to see Russia again: he will die as a broken man and a drunkard in Paris three years later. Despite its rage, the Supreme Council knew perfectly that the Russian army was in no state to fight against the Finns. They decided for a more cautious approach. The governorate of Petrograd was trusted upon Yudenich’s second, Lieutenant-General A.P. Rodzianko, who was given the task to pursue diplomatic talks along with former Tsarist Foreign Minister D. Sazonov (just returned from Paris), with the goal of slowing them down. The Supreme Council expected Finland to grow tired and to give up its claims, which was not a stupid tactic, for Finnish troops were starting to get bored of occupying Petrograd and wanted to go home. This delaying tactic could have worked, under other circumstances.

* Actually half of the area claimed by Finland was already in Finnish hands. They had profited of the Bolshevik collapse of November to successfully move into Soviet-controlled Karelia, encountering virtually no resistance at all.

Poland
There lay the biggest threat against Russia. Poland had successfully taken advantage of the Civil War to take some significant steps towards the realization of Greater Poland, maybe even of the “miedzymorze”, a Polish federation from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Not only had they succeed in conquering Galicia over the Ukrainian Nationalists, they had also advanced deeply in Russian territory (or rather, Byelorussian territory, but this is not a nuance that the Whites would understand). The Bolshevik collapse had allowed them to enter further in Russian territory, to the point that at the end of 1919, with the fall of Moguilev and Gomel on the same day (10 December), nearly the entire Byelorussia was directly or indirectly in Polish hands. On 17 December, Bulak-Balakovitch, after having briefly occupied Minsk during November with the tacit tolerance of Pilsudski, made his submission and was appointed commander of the Byelorussian People’s Army, as the Polish set up a puppet Byelorussian State in the areas under their control. White troops managed to arrive just in time to occupy Vitbesk and Polotsk before the Polish, who at this time decided to not engage White Russians. But that was only a respite for Russia. Things were already critical enough for Moscow, but they were about to becoming worse.

On the diplomatic stage, the recent victories of the Whites had greatly helped the ambassadors of the White movement and greatly harmed the Polish claims. The Allies were not willing anymore to recognize Poland’s possession over Galicia, whose situation remained unclear. Moreover, after successful Russian advocating, the Allies suggested a Polish-Russian border which was settled 300 km west of the actual border. The Curzon Line, as it was known, disadvantaged heavily Poland and in fact condemned the very idea of Greater Poland. It was simply unacceptable for Poland, which was confident in its ability not only to keep its conquests, but also to expand them a great deal further.

War was unavoidable.

To follow: Cossacks (finally) and great commotions.
 
Out of curiosity, what happens to Brusilov? Could he be a part of the new government?

The communist revolutions in Central Europe?

The war in Anatolia, given arms by the Soviets?

Also relations with Germany, since they allowed Lenin to cross Germany during the war and thus helped the Civil War into starting?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
What's happening in Ciscaucasia? Are the Cossacks independent or are they negotiating with Moscow? Is the Mountainous Republic still around?

And what's happening in the Ural? Is the Idel Ural State still there or have the Russians annexed it?

And do the Emir of Bukhara and the Khan of Khiva wield any influence in Central Asia, or has things slipped out of their grip?
 
My two previous posts were a picture taken at one particular moment, i.e. December 1919 - January 1920. As mentioned, Cossacks and their issues are coming. Then I will move on.

Regarding Idel-Ural secessionists, let's put them among the several partizan movements which are currently erupting in Russia following the Soviet collapse and/or the White victory.

As for relations with Germany: Germany just lost the war. They are absolutely in no situation to play a active role in the Russian affairs, and Russia can't afford the luxury to mind about Germany for the moment. Their foreign horizon is limited to their immediate neighbours and the Versailles Conference. Krasnov, who is about to come back in power in the Don (as we shall see), is certainly pro-German, but I believe that he can expect zero support from Germany. That is, in 1920.

Regarding revolutions in Central Europa, I don't really see how they could be influenced a posteriori by a White victory in Fall 1919.

But good point for Brusilov and Anatolia though. In my opinion it is highly unlikely that Brusilov could play any active role in the immediate future: even if he had not the opportunity to do what he did OTL during the Soviet-Polish War, he went pretty far on the path of collaboration with the Red Army. He is widely regarded as a traitor by his former pairs officers and aristocrats.

And last but not least, his son, serving in the Red cavalry, was captured and executed during the battle of Orel. Brusilov remained convinced till his last days that it was on Denikin's order. Hence he will not, in any case, work with the current junta.

As for Anatolia, we will see. It is not impossible that Kolchak's Russia supports Kemal with the idea of taking back the Transcaucasian republics.
 
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