A "white russian Taiwan" in Crimea?

[GauchoBadger]

IOTL, in 1920, at the tail end of the Russian Civil War, there was a short-lived menshevik/white russian state estabilished in the Crimean Peninsula. It was overrun slightly later by the bolsheviks. My main question is: could it survive?
Looking back at that time period, i think that one of the main detriments to an exiled menshevik state in southern Ukarine or Crimea was that the soviet-friendly Turkish Republic had kicked Greece (and, thus, Britain and France) out of the Marmara Straits. Perhaps an early greek victory in the Greco-Turkish War could have freed up the straits for british and french shipping, which could have theoretically helped the crimean white russians?

 

[The_Russian]

No. Doubt it. Taiwan is an island that is 160 KM (100 miles) off the coast of the Chinese mainland where as Crimea is right next to Russia and Ukraine.

Edit: the distance is what I got from Google. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong

 

[Sasalele]

No. Doubt it. Taiwan is an island that is 160 KM (100 miles) off the coast of the Chinese mainland where as Crimea is right next to Russia and Ukraine.

Edit: the distance is what I got from Google. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong

It’s more or less connected. There is literally no separation in some places.

 

[The_Russian]

It’s more or less connected. There is literally no separation in some places.

That's what I meant by right next to.

 

[Black]

I think a eastern Siberia white Russia is possible. Especially if Japan intervened. Which is possible if only to establish a friendly government that won't have the ability to threaten their influence sphere.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Crimea has two places to cross--the Isthmus of Perekop and the Syvash. Despite being called a sea, the Syvash is more of a glorified marsh in many places, and depending on weather conditions is practical to ford in many places. Mikhail Frunze crossed both obstacles in the Russian Civil War.

Overall it would take some serious fortification of the peninsula and the main entry points plus more foreign support to defend Crimea.

 

[The_Russian]

I could see a Hong Kong type of situation if Russia somehow took Constantinople, but even that seems unlikely.

 

[Black]

Crimea has two places to cross--the Isthmus of Perekop and the Syvash. Despite being called a sea, the Syvash is more of a glorified marsh in many places, and depending on weather conditions is practical to ford in many places. Mikhail Frunze crossed both obstacles in the Russian Civil War.

Overall it would take some serious fortification of the peninsula and the main entry points plus more foreign support to defend Crimea.

Which the United Kingdom certainly has the capacity to do. But probably wouldn't barring a major political shift in the country during the war and after.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I could see a Hong Kong type of situation if Russia somehow took Constantinople, but even that seems unlikely.

No way they’d be allowed to hold Constantinople even if they managed to take it. Or do you mean if Russia took it during WWI?

IMO, a White Russian Far Eastern Republic is the best chance, east of Lake Bikal. Depend on Japanese support for the first few years, maybe an enlarged western mission if successes make it viable, then independence. Vladivostok becomes the new White capital (I won’t say Imperial or Fourth Rome).

 

[The_Russian]

No way they’d be allowed to hold Constantinople even if they managed to take it. Or do you mean if Russia took it during WWI?

IMO, a White Russian Far Eastern Republic is the best chance, east of Lake Bikal. Depend on Japanese support for the first few years, maybe an enlarged western mission if successes make it viable, then independence. Vladivostok becomes the new White capital (I won’t say Imperial or Fourth Rome).

Yes. Most likely ww1. But that's not to say I think a Taiwan scenario for white Russia could occur in Siberia, I just think it's plausible for a Hong Kong scenario to occur with Constantinople. Though I still think my idea is unlikely. Hence why I said that in my post.

 

[sloreck]

In order for this to have any chance to succeed you'd need some Great Power or Powers to commit to defending the independence of the Crimea. Massive border defenses would nee to be erected, and the Soviets could use long range artillery to make a significant chink of the Crimea marginally inhabitable. retaliation would be pointless, as the Russians could have a "military zone" with minimal civilian population in the danger area without losing much. OTOH, given the relatively small area of the Crimea, losing area to a "military zone" is going to hurt. Economically the Crimea will have to figure out how to become Singapore or Hong Kong as the resources are not enough for it to be self sufficient.

Given all that what happens when WWII arrives, and (assuming Barbarossa not butterflied away) Germany attacks the USSR. In 1941 the UK and France can't help the Crimea, due to the German/Italian occupation of Greece, Crete, and the Aegean Islands no convoys will reach it. Will the Crimea attempt to remain neutral, and would the USSR and/or Germany respect that. If they throw in on the Allied side, I expect the Germans will still take it, and then after "liberation" by Soviet troops... If they join the anti-communist "crusade", when they are "liberated" things will go even worse. Just like the Baltic States, the Crimean "independence" that "happens" in 1920/21 would come to an end with the end of 1945.

 

[Black]

If Russia was able to conquer Constantinople wouldn't that mean they were winning the war, making a rebellion like otl less likely, or at least drastically different.

 

[SsgtC]

Will the Crimea attempt to remain neutral, and would the USSR and/or Germany respect that

IMO, no, Germany would not respect that. Whether it's Red Russians or White Russians that hold the Crimea, they're still Russian. Which means they're Slavic. And to the Nazis, that makes them Untermensch. And that means the Nazis are going to treat them just as awfully as they did the USSR.

 

[Black]

IMO, no, Germany would not respect that. Whether it's Red Russians or White Russians that hold the Crimea, they're still Russian. Which means they're Slavic. And to the Nazis, that makes them Untermensch. And that means the Nazis are going to treat them just as awfully as they did the USSR.

To be honest if they were just in Crimea I could see hitler simply ignoring them until after the war. Similar to Switzerland, probably not worth the effort. Hitler was not the best prioritizer but he had some understanding that you shouldn't fight the world at once. At least for a while.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

There is a WI, where Alaska is retained by the Russian Empire, then in 1922 a White exile state is established there. The US and Britain might be loathe to see a Soviet of Alaska & the Red Army ensconced there. Better a pack of down and out aristocrats running a client state than the Red Army in Jueanu.

 

[SsgtC]

IMO, no, Germany would not respect that. Whether it's Red Russians or White Russians that hold the Crimea, they're still Russian. Which means they're Slavic. And to the Nazis, that makes them Untermensch. And that means the Nazis are going to treat them just as awfully as they did the USSR.

Except where it was racially driven. Switzerland was considered "near-Aryan" as was Sweden. So they got a pass as long as they didn't cause too much trouble. But Slavs? I think only Jewish people were persecuted more under the Nazis

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Except where it was racially driven. Switzerland was considered "near-Aryan" as was Sweden. So they got a pass as long as they didn't cause too much trouble. But Slavs? I think only Jewish people were persecuted more under the Nazis

Don't forget that Crimea is ancient Gothic land, that'd be a big factor on Hitler's decision making.

 

[Asp]

Crimea has two places to cross--the Isthmus of Perekop and the Syvash. Despite being called a sea, the Syvash is more of a glorified marsh in many places, and depending on weather conditions is practical to ford in many places. Mikhail Frunze crossed both obstacles in the Russian Civil War.

Overall it would take some serious fortification of the peninsula and the main entry points plus more foreign support to defend Crimea.

And—somehow—a Navy strong enough to prevent the lines of communication such an enclave would absolutely depend on from being snipped.

This isn't workable.

 

[Mackus]

Don't forget that Crimea is ancient Gothic land, that'd be a big factor on Hitler's decision making.

Anything is possible, including him deciding that Crimean peasants are slavicised goths, and local Russian aristocrats are descendants of varangian vikings, and thus prime targets for co-opting and germanisation. OTL they arbitrarily declared some cossacks germanic, so its not like there isn't a precedent.

Nazis's weren't exactly consistent in their racial theories: they even made Jew an air marshal, under BS excuse: "oh, my Jewish daddy wasn't my real daddy, I'm really a bastard from very Aryan guy!"

And—somehow—a Navy strong enough to prevent the lines of communication such an enclave would absolutely depend on from being snipped.

There was Russian Black Sea Navy, which included at least two dreadnoughts.
Not strong enough?

 

[Arkenfolm]

IMO, no, Germany would not respect that. Whether it's Red Russians or White Russians that hold the Crimea, they're still Russian. Which means they're Slavic. And to the Nazis, that makes them Untermensch. And that means the Nazis are going to treat them just as awfully as they did the USSR.

They could always work with them for a while like they did the Croats, Slovaks, etc., probably reducing the White Russians in Crimea to a puppet state in the process. That would probably mean the end of them since if the Soviets win they'll be targetted as collaborators and get annexed and if the Soviets lose then the Nazis will eventually get rid of their autonomy and add them to the Greater German Reich.