A what-if about the Peninsular War that involves things being better for Spain

Thande

Donor
I add this proviso because the vast majority of PODs about the Peninsular War posted by Britons usually include the obligatory rant about how crap the Spanish army was, and thus may justifiably be ignored by our Spanish members ;)

Anyway, what if Rafael Menacho hadn't been killed on the ramparts of Badajoz by a lucky French shot, and the Spanish had successfully held Badajoz against the French in 1811?

I think this is a reasonable assumption to draw, as Soult knew that Masséna had been defeated in Portugal and his demand for a surrender from the Spanish after breaching Badajoz's walls was essentially a bluff. If Menacho had remained in command rather than Inaz, Spanish morale would probably have been high enough to organise a successful defence of the breach against the French, and Soult probably wouldn't have much time to try many attempts before having to retreat due to events elsewhere.

So what are the knock-on effects of this - for one thing, it means Britain doesn't have to make the three costly sieges of Badajoz to get it back, and it considerably weakens the French position in the Peninsula. Could this make matters bad enough to persuade Napoleon not to invade Russia in order to support the French armies in Spain? If not, does this result in the French being pushed out of Spain earlier than OTL?
 

chronos

Banned
Paradoxically such a minor change in history could have been counter-productive and resulted in a Napoleonic dynasty ruling over a French super-power dominating Europe.

The Spanish success ensures Napoleon calls off the Russian campaign and goes to Spain personally. he was there for a short time in 1809. But a conventional Spanish army makes it easier to defeat.

The British decide since Spain can stand on its own feet to end the Peninsular ampaign and only supply arms to the Spanish - there were great problems convincing British policymakers to continue it.

The Continental System continues, resulting in economic collapse and collapse of the banking system in Britain - it nearly happened - forcing a peace.

Napoleon is now able to complete his naval building plans with his main naval base at Antwerp and concentrate his new fleet. he had a huge building programme in 1814.

He has now effectively won, unless Britain wishes to renew the war, with a disadvantageous challenge to his fleet.
 
If Napoleon had entered Spain in 1812 instead of Russia, he'd have been in for an entirely different experience. There was a lot more resistance from the conventional Army and guerillas as well with a decent British force firmly entrenched in Portugal. I suspect Napoleon would have probably won a quick victory somewhere and then returned to Paris, claiming the problem solved once more.
 

Thande

Donor
If Napoleon had entered Spain in 1812 instead of Russia, he'd have been in for an entirely different experience. There was a lot more resistance from the conventional Army and guerillas as well with a decent British force firmly entrenched in Portugal. I suspect Napoleon would have probably won a quick victory somewhere and then returned to Paris, claiming the problem solved once more.

That seems likely to me as well, but it has serious repercussions if the Second Polish War is delayed (I can't imagine Napoleon letting someone else command the Grand Armée into Russia)...
 
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