A weak Russian Republic in the 20's.

yourworstnightmare

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Have for a long time had a timeline about a weak, struggling Russian Republic in the 20's. I first thought about no civil war, but came to the conclusion that it would leave Russia way too strong for my timeline. So now I need a POD in the civil war that would allow a white victory, that would create a unstable republic.
 
Well first you have to over come the fact that, if I recall correctly, the whites were really a disorganized force of people with different aims and ideologies and no unity.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Well first you have to over come the fact that, if I recall correctly, the whites were really a disorganized force of people with different aims and ideologies and no unity.


I know, and that's the problem. The Whites could not cooperate, they had no common strategy and they lacked popular (peasant) support. The peasants were the key to Russia and without them the Whites would never be able to win. That's why I haven't been able to find a good POD for my TL yet...
 
I know, and that's the problem. The Whites could not cooperate, they had no common strategy and they lacked popular (peasant) support. The peasants were the key to Russia and without them the Whites would never be able to win. That's why I haven't been able to find a good POD for my TL yet...
Yes, I see the problem... if you have one of the traditional ones - for instance, the Kerensky government decides to make peace with Germany - then there is probably no Bolshevik uprising. Or at least, with Lenin out of the picture (no continuing war = no Finland Station), a substantially different uprising, since he was about the only member of the left arguing for a Bolshevik takeover (they were a tiny minority on the Russian left in 1917).
 
You could have Stolypin live (and carry out land reforms) longer. That would lead to more peasants satisfied with the status quo.
 
You could have Stolypin live (and carry out land reforms) longer. That would lead to more peasants satisfied with the status quo.

Mm. Stolypin's reforms actually exacerbated peasant tensions, by promoting a rising "middle class" of peasants at the expense of the rest. Most of the peasants voluntarily undid his reforms when the Revolution broke out.

(And yes, horrific things happened to those who'd taken advantage of the reforms).
 
Off the top of my head, taking Bolshevik leadership out would do the trick. I have a gnawing suspicion that, after Kornilov's death, any "White Victory" TL would produce a rather weak Russia. And Kornilov surviving would be, well, interesting...

It would be folly to suggest a POD to bring Bolsheviks down without ASBs opening safari on them. Bolshevik's situation in 1918-1919 is rather like Russian Empire in 1916-early 1917. Regime seems to be ever-strengthening on the surface, but very weak-legged and liable to fall with big bang once pushed over invisible fault line. And this line could be any. Lenin killed, Yudenitch's forces taking Petrograd, some mad dash of Shkuro's cossacks toward Moscow, Pepelyaev taking Perm.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Hmm, I will be thinking of this, Lenin dying would weaken the Bolsheviks a little, but if what not that they had a lack of leadership figures, they'd still be stronger than the whites. The whites would need some kind of military miracle, combined with popular support.
 
Lenin dying would weaken the Bolsheviks a little, but if what not that they had a lack of leadership figures
Lenin's death would not be fatal. That's why I said "ASB safari", as in "ASBs taking out a dozen of top leaders within very short time". Off the top of my head, Lenin, Trotsky, Stalin, Sverdlov, Dzerzhinsky, Kamenev, Zinoviev, Buharin, Sokolnikov all have to go, which does require an ASB intervention.
 

yourworstnightmare

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With Polish help, there is a White united but yet unstable coalition under Kerensky's nominal authority.

I have looked into Polish help (combined with Baltic and Finnish interventions), but for this we'd need to have the Whites recognize the independence of the breakaway nations (Poland would probably demand a recognition of not only Poland, but a Polish dominance over a Belarussian and a Ukrainian state, which would be to much for the Whites to swallow).
 

yourworstnightmare

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Hmm, somehow I need to get the White leaders to get smart, which is troublesome since they just weren't.

They need to
a) Have a common strategy and a much better level of collaboration
b) Acctually accept the seceding nations in the Western parts of the former Russian Empire, they'd need their help and their IRL stupidity lead to no help from the neighbors.
c) Gain popular support. Promise a land reform, do anything to gain the support of the peasants, without them they're doomed.
d) The Reds would need to make some mistakes, the reds gained in the early civil war control of so many key areas, that even a "smarter Whites" wouldn't be able to beat them if the reds don't screw up somehow.
 
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