alternatehistory.com

Dear all,

Something to think about:

Facts:
1) PW Botha tried to create a black middle class, not interested in politics
2) He also tried to intimidate ANC in all surrounding countries
3) ANC was led at that time by Oliver Tambo, mainly from Lusaka
4) Thabo Mbeki was Oliver's "right hand man"
5) Nelson Mandela was in jail
6) There was not an ANC power centre in SA in the mid 1980's outside of different liberal groups, really (can be debated, OK).

Thesis
PW tries to split ANC into splinter groups and different "centres of power".

Instead of attacking ANC, he releases Nelson Mandela in 1984 (after KomatiePort agreement). He unbans ANC but prevents Oliver Tambo and others in returnign to SA (criminal charges).

Good Questions
1) Will this create 2 centres of power, fighting for control of ANC - Lusaka (Tambo) and Johannesburg (Mandela)?
2) Where would the current players align themselves?
3) Would there be more than 2 centres? London also had its contingent of ANC leaders
4) Would it have delayed the end of apartheid in any way
5) Would sanctions have been cancelled as one of the major obstacles was exactly Mandela's jail term?
6) If santions were cancelled, the economy might have looked better, resulting in a wealthy black middle class - without political aspirations?

Looking forward to some comments on this one.

Ivan
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