A Very Different 2008 Election

January 28th 2007:

After months of speculation, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, viewed by many as one of the rising stars in the Democratic Party, announces that he will not seek the Presidency in 2008. "I will continue to serve the citizens of the great state of Illinois in the United States Senate over the coming years" he says.

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Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Barack Obama?

Favorable - 51%
Unfavorable - 18%
Unsure - 31%

(Among registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning Independents) Of the announced candidates, who do you support for the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Hillary Clinton - 46%
John Edwards - 18%
Bill Richardson - 3%
Chris Dodd - 2%
Joe Biden - 2%
Dennis Kucnich - 2%
Unsure/Someone Else - 27%

Februrary 8th 2007:

John McCain, the longtime Senator from Arizona, releases a statement on his website that reads "After careful consideration and long talks with my family, I have decided not to run for the Oval Office in 2008." Many pundits feel that his decision may have been age-related and/or health-related.

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Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator John McCain?

Favorable - 55%
Unfavorable - 29%
Unsure - 16%

(Among registered Republican voters and Republican-leaning Independents) Of the announced candidates, who do you support for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Rudy Giuliani- 40%
Mitt Romney - 15%
Mike Huckabee- 4%
Tommy Thompson - 2%
Sam Brownback - 2%
Duncan Hunter- 2%
Tom Tancredo - 1%
Jim Gilmore - 1%
Unsure/Someone Else - 33%
 
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February 28th 2007:

Texas U.S. Representative Ron Paul announces his candidacy. He is seen a 'maverick' for his opposition to the Iraq War, and has had a small but loyal base of support for several years, but most don't expect him to go very far.

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March 4th 2007:

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The Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll is held. The results are as follows:

Mitt Romney - 30.8%
Ron Paul - 20.9%
Rudy Giuliani - 12.8%
Newt Gingrich - 11.4%
Sam Brownback - 8.3%
Duncan Hunter - 5.4%
Tom Tancredo - 4.2%
Tommy Thompson - 3.4%
Jim Gilmore - 2.8%


 
March 12th 2007:

Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin says on C-SPAN that he is re-considering a presidential bid, and that he will decide "within the next couple of months" whether to enter the race or not.

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Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Russ Feingold?

Favorable - 21%
Unfavorable - 15%
Unsure - 64%

(Among registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning Independents) Of the following announced and potential candidates, who do you support for the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Hillary Clinton - 40% (-6)
John Edwards - 12% (-6)
Russ Feingold - 10% (n/a)
Bill Richardson - 4% (+1)
Chris Dodd - 2% (nc)
Joe Biden - 2% (nc)
Dennis Kucnich - 2% (nc)
Unsure/Someone Else - 28%
(+1)


 
March 26th 2007:

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson states during a radio interview that he will not enter the White House race. "Great news for Giuliani" says a major political blogger.

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April 12th 2007:

Mitt Romney calls Rudy Giuliani a "radical liberal in disguise" during a speech in New Hampshire. Giuliani quickly fires back at him with "I didn't sign a socialist healthcare bill into law during my time as Mayor of New York City. It seems that Mitt lacks some self-awareness."

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April 28th 2007:

The first Democratic debate is held in California. The highlight is a heated clash between Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich refers to Clinton as a "lying establishmentarian warmonger" and says it would be a "disaster" for the Democratic Party if she were the nominee in 2008.



Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Hillary Clinton ?

Favorable - 48%
Unfavorable - 45%
Unsure - 7%

(Among registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning Independents) Of the following announced and potential candidates, who do you support for the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Hillary Clinton - 38% (-2)
John Edwards - 14% (+2)
Russ Feingold - 11% (+1)
Dennis Kucnich - 4% (+2)
Bill Richardson - 3% (-1)
Chris Dodd - 2% (nc)
Joe Biden - 2% (nc)
Mike Gravel - 1% (n/a)
Unsure/Someone Else - 25%
(-3)

May 1st 2007:

At a rally in Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold announces that he has decided not to run for President in 2008, and also announces his endorsement of Dennis Kucinich. "Representative Kucinich is the most principled and progressive candidate in this race" he says.

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May 3rd 2007:

The first Republican debate is held in California. Giuliani and Romney both dodge questions about their mini-feud several weeks ago. Ron Paul attacks the "Republican Establishment" for "betraying the traditional conservative values of Robert Taft and Calvin Coolidge".

(Among registered Republican voters and Republican-leaning Independents) Of the announced candidates, who do you support for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Rudy Giuliani- 42% (+2)
Mitt Romney - 16% (+1)
Mike Huckabee- 5% (+1)
Tommy Thompson - 2% (nc)
Sam Brownback - 1% (-1)
Duncan Hunter- 1% (-1)
Tom Tancredo - 1% (nc)
Jim Gilmore - 1% (nc)
Unsure/Someone Else - 31% (-2)

May 15th 2007:

Newt Gingrich rules out a 2008 presidential bid.

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May 30th 2007:

Limbaugh calls for a "true conservative" to enter the race

On his radio show today, staunch conservative Rush Limbaugh called for a "true conservative" to enter what he calls "a lackluster Republican field made up of RINOs".

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June 8th 2007:

Hollywood star Gary Sinise makes a shock entry into the Republican Primaries

In a surprise announcement today, Gary Sinise announced that he will run for President in 2008 as a Republican. Mr. Sinise, 52, says that he is "unsatisfied" with the current Republican field, and that he feels he can be "a stronger representative of the conservative base of the Republican Party" than Giuliani, Romney, or any of the other candidates.

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Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of actor Gary Sinise?

Favorable - 30%
Unfavorable - 28%
Unsure - 42%


(Among registered Republican voters and Republican-leaning Independents) Of the announced candidates, who do you support for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Rudy Giuliani- 36% (-6)
Mitt Romney - 15% (-1)
Gary Sinise - 10% (n/a)
Mike Huckabee- 5% (nc)
Ron Paul - 3% (n/a)
Sam Brownback - 2% (+1)
Duncan Hunter- 2% (+1)
Tom Tancredo - 1% (nc)
Unsure/Someone Else - 26% (-5)
 
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June 11th 2007:

Rush Limbaugh announces his endorsement of Gary Sinise.

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June 25th 2007:

Sinise runs his first ad in Iowa and New Hampshire. He attacks Giuliani for his "Social Liberalism" and Romney for "RomneyCare". He advocates a flat income tax and a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

July 23rd 2007:

A Democratic debate takes place in South Carolina. John Edwards refers to himself as the "anti-poverty and anti-staus-quo candidate".


Gallup:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of former Senator John Edwards?

Favorable - 44%
Unfavorable - 30%
Unsure - 26%

(Among registered Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning Independents) Of the following announced and potential candidates, who do you support for the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Hillary Clinton - 34% (-4)
John Edwards - 20% (+6)
Dennis Kucnich - 7% (+3)
Bill Richardson - 3% (nc)
Chris Dodd - 3% (+1)
Joe Biden - 3% (+1)
Mike Gravel - 2% (+1)
Unsure/Someone Else - 28%
(+3)


 
August 5th 2007:

The first Republican debate featuring Gary Sinise is held Des Moines, Iowa. Sinise attacks Giuliani for his "love of illegal immigration and abortion". He also advocates a national sales tax to replace the federal income tax.

(Among registered Republican voters and Republican-leaning Independents) Of the announced candidates, who do you support for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008?

Rudy Giuliani- 30% (-6)
Gary Sinise - 18% (+8)
Mitt Romney - 16% (+1)
Mike Huckabee- 5% (nc)
Ron Paul - 4% (+1)
Sam Brownback - 1% (-1)
Duncan Hunter- 1% (-1)
Tom Tancredo - 1% (nc)
Unsure/Someone Else - 24% (-2)


Candidates' Favorable/Unfavorable ratings:

Giuliani - 56/32 (66/24 among Republicans)
Sinise - 34/38 (54/20 among Republicans)
Romney - 36/37 (59/21 among Republicans)
 
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