"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Chapter 88: Groundhog Day
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The People's Party leapfrogged the SDP, throwing the Commons into chaos

“While politicians in London are busy fighting, a unilateral independence process is underway in Edinburgh. Elsewhere, the EU is headed towards some of the most challenging months in the history of the European project. If the UK's dysfunctional politics continue, it will not be able to make its weight felt in Brussels. The lengthy process of finding a government may mark the coming of age of the UK’s young democracy. If, to find an agreement, British politicians need a third election, so be it. But a third election will solve little unless political leaders show their willingness to compromise and reform. Otherwise, the UK would have gone without a government for over a year for nothing. And then it might well go without one for some time to come.”
- Does the UK Need a Third Election?, John Springford speaking at panel discussion at the Centre for European Reform (2016)


One step forward two steps back, the National Party edged ever closer to Government, but still fell short even in a hypothetical coalition with Unity. A third partner, either the SDP or SNP would be needed to punt Hague back into Downing Street. Whilst National’s path to government wasn’t wide open, it had still made progress - more than could be said for most other parties - giving Hague’s bid for Prime Minister further credibility. The People’s Party, now officially with the silver medal, also faced a two steps forward scenario, they had claimed official opposition status, but they had lost seats overall in the General Election, and internal arguments still raged on.

Whilst every other party could find some form of silver lining, for the Social Democrats the result was irredeemable, they had made the most dramatic losses of the night losing over a dozen seats. The SDP failed to win a plurality in a single province, even in strongholds like Burnham’s own province of Greater Manchester the Social Democrats fell to second place. The Social Democrats had been the victims of a last minute turn against them as one poll showed over a million SDP voters voting tactically against either Hague or Ribeiro-Addy. Between the two extremes the party of Alan Johnson had been thoroughly squeezed. The Social Democratic/Unity pact before the election was also thoroughly dead with National having more seats than both parties combined.
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Johnson called on Social Democrat MPs to abstain in Hague's confidence vote

With every other party floundering, Hague clearly had the momentum with his internal critics temporarily silenced. Hague hoped to press the advantage by moving this as quickly as possible. In his victory speech from York he declared the British people were “sick and tired of dithering and delay”. Calling for three way negotiations with the Social Democrats and Unity to create a broad centrist coalition government. This declaration had the added bonus of throwing a hand grenade into the Social Democrats, whilst Andy Burnham rejected the offer and most in the party were against a formal coalition, many on the right - including party godfather Alan Johnson - favoured the Social Democrats abstaining in order to rebuild itself in opposition.

“Andy Burnham has two options. Either he can permit a Hague-led minority government to take power or he can gear up for new elections that would bring depressed turnout. Half of Burnham's party, including former leaders Alan Johnson and David Miliband have called on the SDP to abstain, avoiding new elections. The reasons are clear enough. Burnham could argue that a third set of elections in the new year, given the polls that forecast another stalemate, are a needless waste. Besides, the UK needs a government, and National has the strongest claim to a mandate. But at any time, the Social Democrats could pull the plug on the minority government if they believe they could win an election. After a year or two of more austerity and lumbering unemployment, a SDP government may seem much more amenable to voters.” - SDP Grandees Put Pressure on Burnham After Election Defeat, BBC News Bulletin (2016)

Any bridge remaining between the People’s Party and Social Democrats had been thoroughly burned after the election, Burnham refused to take Ribeiro-Addy’s calls after the election, telling party supporters the Social Democrats would not be supporting any Government, instead the SDP would “rebuild as a true alternative”. Burnham had to keep his head on a swivel as his lieutenants began to move against him. Whilst voting against everyone was probably the best option to keep his party together, Burnham united his backbenchers in hatred towards him with left and right arguing for him to pick a side, rather than risk a third election.

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Even with Unity Hague would need three more votes for a majority

Still without Burnham’s support National and Unity still had a decent chance to form a Government, with the Ulster Conservatives and Northern Irish Liberals likely to support them, they only needed three more votes for a simple majority. However, Unity wasn’t a done deal, Sugar had said over the election campaign he would only support National as part of a broad coalition including the SDP, and had promised not to support a National Party led by Hague. There was also the case of these three extra votes, Plaid Cymru seemed like an obvious choice, having said during the campaign they would support either party in return for a unified Welsh Parliament. However relations between the two parties were poor and National’s right flank would be enraged at further separatist concessions. Over the campaign Jill Evans had said over the election Hague held Wales “in contempt” and needed a “change of attitude”.

With a hundred roadblocks ahead of him, some expected Hague to repeat history by rejecting an invite to the Palace, however - much to the relief of everyone - Hague accepted King Charles’ invitation to form a Government. Hague announced he would open talks with all parties - except the People’s Party - to form a Government. The main spotlight however was on Unity, seen as Hague’s most likely coalition partner. In his speech outside Downing Street Hague offered a “clear plan” of constitutional reform to Unity, including the removal of Mountbatten-era legal immunities for public officers and a two-term limit for Prime Ministers. Sugar had pledged during the election not to let Hague back into Downing Street, but every man had their price.

“The SDP has said it will not smooth Hague’s path to re-election by abstaining from voting. A spokesman said it was up to National to make the first move to form a government, rather than trying to pressure the SDP. Burnham has ruled out a deal with National as long as Hague is in charge, and on Sunday night he criticised the party’s austerity measures. Sugar also turned down the proposal, but said he could reconsider if Hague steps aside – something the acting prime minister has ruled out. Journalist Simon Heffer, says a National minority government remains the likely outcome of the election. “If the stalemate materialises again, National will be the only alternative to a third round of elections,” he said. “This should in principle allow the other parties to justify their abstention in a confidence vote."” - SDP & Unity Rule Out Coalition Unless Hague Steps Aside, Sam Jones, The Guardian (2016)

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Despite rumours he was on the way out Hague had survived worse and he had a fresh mandate
 
December 2016 Detailed Results
  • National Party: 179 (+9)
  • United People's Alliance: 103 (-3)
  • Social Democratic Party: 101 (-12)
  • Unity: 63 (+5)
  • RISE: 14 (-)
  • Scottish National Party: 9 (+1)
  • Ecology Party: 6 (-)
  • Plaid Cymru: 5 (-1)
  • Forward Wales: 4 (-)
  • Sinn Fein: 4 (-1)
  • Ulster Conservatives: 2 (-1)
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party: 2 (+1)
  • Northern Irish Liberals: 2 (+1)
  • The Centrists: 1 (-)
  • Worker's Party of Scotland: 1 (-)
  • Mebyon Kernow: 1 (-)
 
Amazing how National (and even Hague personally) are the obvious stumbling blocks in any coalition, how they are blatantly corrupt and even verging on authoritarian, and how their austerity has overall simply made life worse for the British public... and in a third election they will more than get away with campaigning on the idea that they are the party of 'getting it done' and how voting for them is not only good for the country but also likely to produce a stable coalition. As a lifelong British citizen I shouldn't be surprised, but, still.

Also, @powerab, I've only just noticed that you jumped from Chapter 77 to 88 and are ahead in chap. numbers.
 
Is ecology like a leftist anti austerity party or more like a European centrist green party, if it's the second what are their opinions on supporting national.
 
Amazing how National (and even Hague personally) are the obvious stumbling blocks in any coalition, how they are blatantly corrupt and even verging on authoritarian, and how their austerity has overall simply made life worse for the British public... and in a third election they will more than get away with campaigning on the idea that they are the party of 'getting it done' and how voting for them is not only good for the country but also likely to produce a stable coalition. As a lifelong British citizen I shouldn't be surprised, but, still.

Also, @powerab, I've only just noticed that you jumped from Chapter 77 to 88 and are ahead in chap. numbers.
good catch, fixed
 
Is ecology like a leftist anti austerity party or more like a European centrist green party, if it's the second what are their opinions on supporting national.
Ecology are somewhere in the middle, a centre-left social justice party they are to the left of the German Greens, but they aren't out and out eco-socialists. They definitely lean more towards the SDP/UPA but if push came to shove they could back a National Government
 
Chapter 89: Double Dare
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Hague found it surprisingly easy to form a confidence and supply deal with Unity

“William Hague has signed up to Unity's six point plan, moving the two parties closer together. “We will continue to move forward until we reach an agreement,” said lead negotiator Jeremy Clarkson on Friday morning. He explained that the talks over the coming days will be divided into four policy blocks: economy, education and R&D, social, and institutions. Unity knows that if it is to act as kingmaker to National, it must not be seen to be not involved in any graft. The first of Unity's six points requires National to expel anybody charged with corruption from the party. The fourth point demands an end to amnesties for those found guilty of fraud, and the sixth calls for a commission to look into the Harrison case. The other points call for greater transparency in the way Britain's parties draw up their lists of candidates and elect leaders.
” - National and Unity sign pact ahead of confidence vote, BBC News Bulletin (2017)

Negotiations between the National Party and Unity seemed to go well, especially on the economic front, a strong commitment to the Troika bailout package, the need for harsh economic discipline and stronger trade union laws were swiftly agreed on both sides. Unity even agreed to shift some of it’s demands on a political corruption bill, narrowing the scope of the bill to a very narrow definition of “personal enrichment” on behalf of politicians. This was a rather major concession on Sugar’s party considering several leading National Party politicians were under direct investigation for corruption. Unity also quietly dropped their demands for Hague to resign, with a third election unthinkable, the parties were willing to move heaven and earth to secure a government. Fear of a radical left surge pushed them together.

After a week of negotiations a formal deal was enacted between Unity and the National Party, with the Ulster Conservatives and Northern Irish Liberals also signing up to the centre-right pact. Over a 150 policy points were agreed, including extended maternity leave for new mothers, raising taxes to lower the deficit, and a commitment to depoliticise public services, most notably the judiciary, the last vestige of Mountbattenism in the British state. The deal also made overtures to the Social Democrats, with many policies carrying over from the SDP/Unity pact including ring fencing benefits for lower-income families, increased spending on education and an 8 billion euro commitment to tackle child poverty.

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The establishment needed a government, less the populist threat grew

Despite offerings to the left Burnham remained unmoved, continuing to insist his MPs would vote against any Government led by Hague. The People’s Party set on Unity - both being the youngest of Britain’s political parties - accusing Sugar of “giving himself away” to National. Hague’s attempts to find his final three votes also failed, as the SNP, Plaid and Ecology parties all walked out of negotiations with National. However with Sinn Fein and the Speaker abstaining, National could form a simple majority of one with just the support they had. It was a risky move and would create an inherently unstable government, but time was running out. Hague decided to go for broke, presenting himself to the Commons he dared them to vote him down, banking that no National or Unity MP would cross the floor against him.

“Hague hopes Plaid Cymru will need his support for a Welsh Parliament and that in exchange, the nationalists will back him in the Commons. Unity's vocal hostility to Plaid Cymru means it may refuse to keep its pact with Hague if the nationalists are involved. Such subplots help explain why the UK's new era of politics has failed to produce a government. Unity’s own survival is dependent on the stalemate coming out in its favour. A third election could deal a near-fatal blow to the party. Unity risks losing more ground to Hague’s party as Britain’s wish for stability trumps any desire for political renewal. “We don’t want to seize power, but we do want to have the power to change things,” Sugar said before December’s election. With each passing month, Unity's attempts to be the bridge builder of British politics risks fading.” - Alan Sugar’s Faustian Bargain, Guy Hedgecoe, Politico (2017)

Hague bet correctly, with uncharacteristic discipline National held ranks, even as the opposition scrambled to stop them. 87 year old SDP MP Gerald Kaufman had to be carried into the lobby on a stretcher to vote against Hague’s accession to Downing Street. With 246 to 243 votes Hague was elected as Prime Minister as 4 Sinn Fein MPs abstained, as did the speaker and his deputy. The Parliamentary opposition was too divided to stop Hague taking the crown whilst National’s whips had worked through the night to persuade, intimidate or even blackmail it’s MPs into keeping the faith. Hague had taken a big risk in forcing a vote without a definite majority, but it seemed to pay off.

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Unity backbenchers feared it would follow Reform to the dustbin of history

Hague became the second British Prime Minister elected to a second term - a real achievement considering his personal approval ratings, all of his enemies were too busy fighting each other to stop him. But it had taken all of his political capital to get through the last few months, every favour, every secret, every late night phone call. Hague was spent before even reentering Downing Street with his political agenda at a real risk of stalling beneath a tiny Commons majority and internal enemies. Now he had to appoint a Cabinet that would please not only his own backbenchers, but Unity MPs as well. It would be a deft process, one wrong appointment could upset the apple-cart and he’d have to start all over again.

William Hague Cabinet 2017-
  • Prime Minister - William Hague
  • Deputy Prime Minister - Jeremy Clarkson
  • Chancellor of the Exchequer - Nicholas Soames
  • Foreign Secretary - David Davis
  • Justice Secretary - Michael Clapp
  • Defence Secretary - Amber Rudd
  • Home Secretary - Graham Brady
  • Development Secretary - Jo Swinson
  • Education Secretary - Philip Hammond
  • Industry, Tourism and Trade Secretary - Arlene Foster
  • Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Secretary - Tim Cross
  • Public Administrations Secretary - Joanna Penn
  • Culture Secretary -Nick Harvey
  • Health Secretary - Justine Greening
  • Environment Secretary - Karen Bradley
  • Housing Secretary - Arron Banks
Hague made a strong attempt to modernise his Shadow Cabinet, whilst old military hands like Soames and Davis stayed in the senior positions of Treasury and Foreign Affairs, the number of commissioned officers in the frontbench was reduced to just four - a record for National. In their place Hague mainly promoted women, especially younger rising stars including Amber Rudd to defence and Jo Swinson to development. Jeremy Clarkson, one of Hague’s closest allies and strongest media performers was made a jack of all trades as Deputy Prime Minister - in other words Hague’s designated press attack dog. Britain had its first elected Cabinet in over a year and it was full of personalities.

“Altogether, nine new ministers make their appearance in Hague’s government. Defence Secretary Nicholas Soames, who oversaw controversial military reforms, has been promoted to Treasury. Outgoing foreign minister, David Bannerman had sparked regular spats with Brussels and it is unclear how much his successor David Davis will focus on the ongoing sovereignty row. Home Secretary Steven Woolfe, is replaced by Graham Brady, former leader of National in Greater Manchester. Meanwhile Amber Rudd, until now secretary General of the National Party takes up the defence portfolio. Joanna Penn was named minister for the regions. Penn will have teje delicate task of managing Westminster’s relations with Scotland, where an independence drive is in full swing.” - UK’s Hague appoints EU-friendly Cabinet, Adrian Croft, Reuters (2017)

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Clarkson and Soames, both pro-EU and close to Unity, saw promotion
 
If this coalition makes it to the next election without tearing itself apart I will eat my hat. As for the current Deputy Prime Minister, well, on that bombshell it's time to end this country, thank you very much for residing in it, GOODNIGHT!
 
If this coalition makes it to the next election without tearing itself apart I will eat my hat. As for the current Deputy Prime Minister, well, on that bombshell it's time to end this country, thank you very much for residing in it, GOODNIGHT!
If this coalition makes it to 2018 without tearing itself apart I'll eat my own hat.
 
So did Plaid get support for a Welsh parliament?

On that subject, what are the Welsh provinces and are they all Welsh only or do some straddle the border?
 
So did Plaid get support for a Welsh parliament?

On that subject, what are the Welsh provinces and are they all Welsh only or do some straddle the border?
No Plaid walked out of negotiations with National and voted against the Hague Government. Wales is divided into two provinces: West (Mid Glamorgan, West Glamorgan, Dyfed and Gwynedd) and East (Gwent, South Glamorgan, Powys and Clwyd)
 
No Plaid walked out of negotiations with National and voted against the Hague Government. Wales is divided into two provinces: West (Mid Glamorgan, West Glamorgan, Dyfed and Gwynedd) and East (Gwent, South Glamorgan, Powys and Clwyd)
Could we get a provincial map or list of leaders at some point?
 
Chapter 90: Leapfrog
Author's Note: Turtledove voting closes tomorrow, I'd appreciate if you could throw me a vote :)

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Ribeiro-Addy had gone from student activist to leader of the opposition in less than a decade

“The pressures of politics have put paid to the carefree days of punditry when Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Owen Jones would hold intellectual discussions that ended with a beer. “Now the situation is different and it’s fundamental that we separate the personal and the private from the political,” she said. "Owen brings a lot to the Party.” But wouldn’t the project be easier without her old friend in the party? “Not at all. It’s the absolute opposite: I want to have the best people close to me even if they don’t think like me.” Bell feels she has grown up a lot over the past three years, learned to cope with the pressure and is far better prepared to be prime minister. All she needs to do now is survive the weekend. “Being in politics broadens the shoulders,” she said. “There’s that cruel saying: ‘What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.’ And the punches we’ve taken have made us stronger.””
- Bell goes for broke, Sam Jones, The Guardian (2017)

The revolution had taken Paris, stormed the gates of the Bastille - and then settled down on the opposition benches. It was a strange sight to see, student leaders, university professors and other assorted radicals now made up the second largest bloc in Parliament. The People’s Alliance had always had “spokespeople” but now Ribeiro-Addy had to appoint a full Shadow Cabinet with constitutionally defined roles, and try and force some discipline on a party famed for its byzantine internal democracy. Ribeiro-Addy and her team would not only need to look like a credible government in waiting but also prevent internal splits within the various party factions.

Whilst members of the Shadow Cabinet were elected, the “Bell Slate” of candidates backed by Ribeiro-Addy were guaranteed to win. Ribeiro formed a cross factional coalition for her slate including internal critics like Owen Jones and Caroline Lucas. Ribeiro-Addy repeatedly threatened to resign if her slate was defeated in internal elections further pushing party members onside. No organised slate emerged to challenge the leaderships’ “recommended candidate” with only the occasional disorganised insurgent to challenge the official nominees. All of the #Bell17 was elected into the Shadow Cabinet by party members, further consolidating her control over the party.

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Bell allies received vital Shadow Cabinet positions

Bell Ribeiro-Addy Shadow Cabinet
  • Leader of the Opposition - Bell Ribeiro-Addy (PP)
  • Deputy Leader of the Opposition - Owen Jones (PP)
  • Shadow Chancellor - Diane Abbott (SA)
  • Shadow Foreign Secretary - Caroline Lucas (PP)
  • Shadow Justice Secretary - James Schneider (PP)
  • Shadow Defence Secretary - Andrew Murray(SA)
  • Shadow Home Secretary - Rachel Shabi (PP)
  • Shadow Development Secretary - Paul Mason (PP)
  • Shadow Education Secretary - Jon Lansman (SA)
  • Shadow Industry Secretary - Kate Osamor (PP)
  • Shadow Agriculture Secretary - Clive Lewis (PP)
  • Shadow Public Administrations Secretary - Andrew Fisher (SA)
  • Shadow Culture Secretary - Manuel Cortes (PP)
  • Shadow Health Secretary - Faiza Shaheen (PP)
  • Shadow Environment Secretary - Rebecca Long-Bailey (SA)
  • Shadow Housing Secretary - Sam Tarry (PP)
Some pretty major briefs were given over to the Alternative including Leader Diane Abbott at the Treasury and Andrew Murray to Defence much to the outrage of those in the conservative press. On the People’s Party side Caroline Lucas - one of Ribeiro-Addy’s loudest critics - was promoted to Shadow Foreign Secretary, other younger voices including James Schneider, Rachel Shabi and Sam Tarry were all given senior positions. Ribeiro-Addy loyalists also received a fair share of jobs with Kate Osamor at Industry and Andrew Fisher at Public Administrations. Most notably Owen Jones, who saw an increasingly fractious relationship with his boss, kept his place as Deputy Leader of the Opposition.

“Owen Jones has come out badly from his campaign spat and subsequent sulk with Ribeiro-Addy. He bet on a poor result for the party forcing Saint Bell to resign and allow him to take over. Jones is now in a position of extreme weakness to assert his thesis in a Bellista Shadow Cabinet. The Jonesites fear that the radicalization of the party will prevent it from reaching government. The future of Jones is very uncertain. The shadow of being demoted is enormous, as almost all his supporters fear or even take for granted, who predict a major internal purge. Not only is Jones' role as number two reduced, but a large part of his team, which until now has had important weight in the party, have been demoted or sacked.” - Bell Ribeiro-Addy DEVASTATES Owen Jones in Shadow Cabinet Appointments, Chris Campbell, The Express (2017)

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Jones remained in place, but his standing in the party had diminished

The Cabinet was also split broadly down the middle in terms of the European question, Caroline Lucas and Rachel Shabi were both outspoken pro-Europeans, Lucas’ election as Foreign Affairs spokesperson saw the strongest challenge by eurosceptic members of the party, who distrusted her moderate approach to the Brussels Troika. Eurosceptics, led by Andrew Murray made up a vocal minority of the Shadow Cabinet and piled pressure on the Alliance to come out in favour of an EU membership referendum. Seeing the lack of a hard eurosceptic party on the British political scene, the Party’s “Lexiters” wanted to see the Alliance fill that niche

The People’s Alliance also sought to further ingratiate itself as the party of devolution by co-opting it’s regional leaders into the Shadow Cabinet, Scottish Leader Mhairi Black, Welsh Leader Amelia Womack, Northern Irish Leader Megan Fearon and Cornwall Leader Jennifer Forbes. The UPA hoped to use these leaders to build a broad coalition within the Shadow Cabinet, most notably Black who had a close relationship with RISE and other Scottish radicals. Ribiero-Addy had called on other left wing parties to join a “technical grouping” of MPs who would all vote the same way. This was mockingly named the “loser’s coalition” by National and without the support of the SDP the idea fell through.

Cooperation with the Social Democrats became a clear dividing line in this new Cabinet, with figures like Owen Jones and Clive Lewis calling for a “progressive alliance” of both parties, with Lewis going even further suggesting the UPA absorbed the Social Democrats into their Alliance. The unions especially, split between the two parties, were very keen on some kind of understanding. With the Hague Government holding a tiny minority, a snap election was a case of when - rather than if, the left had to be prepared. However, Talk of working with “establishment stooges” such as Burnham further enraged the UPA’s grassroots supporters, especially those from the more libertarian traditions who disagreed with even having an organised Shadow Cabinet.

“Right-wing politicians and media outlets brand the UPA as another political elite interested in power. By rebranding the UPA as a threat to ordinary people, the SDP and the right pushed the UPA closer to the establishment and further away from the people. Given all the redrawing of boundaries from all sides of politics, the UPA faces major challenges over the next couple of years. Should the party opt for a more transversal strategy, or present itself as a party of the left? How can the People's Party maximise support: go for a thin slice of the whole electorate, or a big slice of the left? These challenges are more like tensions than anything that can be wholly overcome. the UPA will have to negotiate with them, aware that, whatever it does, it can’t have it all.” - What does the future hold for Britain’s People’s Alliance?, Chase Foster, Washington Post (2017)

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A snap election could happen at any moment, the UPA needed to sort out it's identity
 
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