"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Wonderful timeline. I just found it yesterday and read it all in a day; looking forward to the general election results...

Countries like the Netherlands and Sweden, with high English-speaking populations and a relatively close proximity to the UK also faced an influx of Brits attempting to illegally immigrate early. The Netherlands especially had a large British exile community during the Junta so many were moving to be with their relatives. As many as 200,000 people of British descent lived in the Netherlands, with one neighborhood of Amsterdam commonly known as “Free London”. Geert Wilders, a Dutch Conservative opposed to EU enlargement had founded a new anti-immigration “Party for Freedom '' especially capitalised on the risk of British and Polish immigration with some polls showing his new party winning as many as 15 seats.

With the increased British exile population in the Netherlands, I wonder if the Dutch government would have decided to build the Markerwaard polder ITTL. They seriously considered it in reality, and hundreds of thousands of British migrants would strengthen the argument for more land being needed for population relief. If they did, I expect the British exile community in the Netherlands may well have also congregated there thanks to its proximity to Amsterdam and likely plentiful new housing supply.
 
Wonderful timeline. I just found it yesterday and read it all in a day; looking forward to the general election results...



With the increased British exile population in the Netherlands, I wonder if the Dutch government would have decided to build the Markerwaard polder ITTL. They seriously considered it in reality, and hundreds of thousands of British migrants would strengthen the argument for more land being needed for population relief. If they did, I expect the British exile community in the Netherlands may well have also congregated there thanks to its proximity to Amsterdam and likely plentiful new housing supply.
Yes the Markerwaard did go ahead and became a haven for the exile community, some neighbourhoods within the became "Little Londons"
 
December 2016 UK General Election, Part 2
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The People's Party was badly divided on EU integration

“How would a Ribeiro-Addy UK deal with the European Union? The UPA prefers to point to Portugal — rather than Greece — when asked about a possible confrontation with the troika. The UPA prefers calm reforms rather than direct confrontation to the EU austerity hawks. If such a strategy were not allowed, such a government would need large support and mobilisation across the European Union. In fact, it is possible that Germany would aim at crushing a government of this kind as soon as possible, like it did with Syriza in Greece. The deteriorating global economy might also make UPA's economic plans difficult to realise. But, a government of the Left could also mean a new era in the UK, one that would face fierce opposition from British elites. Whatever happens, we know there are difficult roads ahead.”
- The UK’s Uncertain Future, Peter Hallward, Jacobin (2016)

As the campaign wore on the Social Democrats fell into a death-spiral; as the party did worse in the polls - it’s supporters continued to abandon it. Either moderates voting National to keep the radical left out, or it’s left wing supporters desperate to elect any kind of progressive government. Unity too also saw a decline in the polls as voters moved into either the conservative or leftist camps. Ironically whilst most polls claimed getting past the political deadlock was voter’s most important issue, actual voting intention showed otherwise as the electorate moved to the extreme. Whilst National’s polling lead continued to grow they still remained far away from forming a government, as most of their new support came from the SDP and Unity, the same people who would be needed to prop up a Hague government.

In what became known as a groundhog day election, the same beats as July seemed to be playing again, internal party splits, a narrow lead for National and general public dissatisfaction all remained the major themes of the campaign. National suffered yet another internal scandal as leaked recordings from 2014 showed Deputy Prime Minister Theresa May discussing with senior intelligence officials on ways to discredit Scottish seperatist parties ahead of the European Election. The scandal forced May to resign but for voters on the left it further cemented distrust of the electoral system, and fears the nation’s establishment would be actively working against them.

Conspiratorial attitudes to the intelligence services would only grow as the Home Office announced it was opening an investigation into People’s Party links with the Venezuelan Government. This came after opposition legislators in Venezuela accused the Chavez and Maduro administrations of funneling millions into populist-left parties abroad, including 10 million euros to "The Outrage" - the People’s Party’s official think tank. The Home Office called for interviews with several leading People’s Party officials, including Ribeiro-Addy herself and her Deputy Owen Jones. The People’s Party denied any links to Maduro, accusing the Home Office of a politically motivated smear campaign against a legal political party.

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Older working class voters - the SDP's backbone - were expected to stay at home

These scandals in both National and the UPA fed into a political culture of gloom and pessimism, the terrible weather didn’t help either. Polls showed 74% of Brits describing the UK’s political situation as “very bad”. Approval ratings for politicians as a class continued to plummet as studies showed MPs trusted less than bankers and even estate agents. The raft of corruption scandals hadn’t helped the situation with 55% of respondents believing Hague’s Cabinet had acted illegally. What was interesting however was that instead of blaming Hague himself or the National party more broadly, respondents tended to blame the entire House of Commons of political establishment for the Nation’s woes. National had lost the public trust, but they dragged all the other parties down with them.

“An often expressed hope is that political trust should recover as soon as economic and social problems are mitigated or resolved. Voters across Europe have reacted positively to economic recovery, restoring trust to pre-2008 levels. But, this finding does not reflect the situation in the UK, where political trust remains low. Here, the crisis served as a “test” for British democracy, leading to a decline in voters’ evaluations of the novel democratic system. This, combined with a series of political corruption incidents hindered the recovery of trust in democracy. This also paved the way to the proliferation of populist parties in Britain that often appeal to their greater moral integrity. Britain follows the model of countries such as Greece, which are facing similar problems of corruption and deficits. They too have also failed to restore political trust to pre-2008 levels.” - Decline of Political Trust in the UK, Lecture by Jennifer Gaskell, University of Southampton (2016)

The lack of political clarity led to a lack of investment, both from British voters reluctant to spend and outside investors unwilling to take a risk on the UK’s economy. The consequences of political stagnation rippled out to the economy as unemployment began to rise again - for the first time in nearly three years. Several leading firms, including those in construction and services, were moving their companies to Germany, Ireland or the Netherlands - where politics was more stable. Investigations by leading think tanks showed unemployment might be even worse than it appeared on the surface, with many of the UK’s employed young people in precarious zero-hour jobs for gig-economy employers like Deliveroo and Uber.

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The UK's gig economy workers had doubled since 2012

One issue that gained salience over the course of the campaign was immigration and refugees. With winter upon Europe, reports of Syrian exiles freezing in tents and increasingly desperate attempts to enter Europe reached television screens. Over 100 refugees were rescued from British shores during the course of the campaign. Coastal communities like East Kent would quickly become electoral battlegrounds as the People’s Party launched refugees welcome rallies on Dover shores whilst The Centrists would record party political broadcasts as migrants unloaded. Burnham found himself outflanked by National as he called for the UK to leave the EU’s covenant on European refugees, leading Bell Ribeiro-Addy to accuse him of “following James Cleverly into the gutter”.

With a metaphorical cloud over every party, and literal clouds on election day itself, turnout was expected to be low, with most voters voting against their most feared party - usually National or the UPA - rather than for the party they’d most like to see lead the country. The election day itself was unusually quiet, with the parties having long spent every last euro in their war-chest and volunteers too exhausted to put up a proper election day fight after weeks of abuse on the doorstep. Britain was tired, everyone from communist students in Liverpool to retired army officers in the shire prayed for reprieve. Britain’s political system had barely made it through a second election, it was unlikely to survive a third.

“David Miliband blames his own SDP and William Hague’s conservatives for paving the way for the anti-austerity movement. Miliband, who was a minister under Alan Johnson then led the SDP to an election defeat in 2012, regrets that the SDP are “still licking our wounds.” Polls predict the SDP could be relegated to third place, behind National and the People's Party-Socialist Alternative alliance. The SDP considered Miliband's 25% in 2012 a humiliation and he resigned on election night. His successor Andy Burnham will be lucky to break 20, which would confront the SDP with three unappetising choices: support Hague; support Ribeiro-Addy; or push for a third election. The third option is unthinkable in a country now facing the first repeat ballot in its modern democratic history.” - David Miliband: ‘UK is playing with fire’, Alex Spence, Politico (2016)

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British politics had it's back to the abyss
 
I’d hoped this Britain had started to move away from the endless rioting but these election results might throw the political climate back to 2005
 
December 2016 Reader's Poll Results
And the result are in from the "what if the UK electorate was replaced by 80 Alt History Readers" poll:
  • United People Alliance: 195 (+91)
  • Social Democratic Party: 100 (-13)
  • National Party: 50 (-63)
  • Unity: 37 (-21)
  • The Centrists: 31 (+30)
  • Plaid Cymru: 18 (+12)
  • Mebyon Kernow: 18 (+17)
  • RISE: 12 (-2)
  • SNP: 12 (+4)
  • Sinn Fein: 12 (+7)
  • Ulster Conservatives: 6 (+3)
  • Northern Irish Liberals: 6 (+5)
If readers had their way the election would be a huge victory for the UPA, who would nearly double their parliamentary reputation, mostly at the expense of National and Unity who would both decline in support. The Centrists on the Far Right and bizarrely Mebyon Kernow would also have a good night, returning dozens of seats. The political situation in Scotland would swing slightly towards the centre, as both RISE and the Worker's Party would lose seats to the SNP.

The most likely result from this election I can see is a People's Alliance led Government supported by various separatist parties like Plaid and Mebyon Kernow. The only other alternative I see is a mega anti-Ribeiro alliance encompassing the centre all the way to the far-right.

Guess we'll have to stay tuned for the real result.
 
I’d hoped this Britain had started to move away from the endless rioting but these election results might throw the political climate back to 2005

Its definitely not helped the transition's internal stability that the Great Recession hit just a few years after the restoration of democracy. Plus to a great degree the current political instability seems to be the 'unfinished business' of the 2000s being dredged up in the poor economic climate. Had the junta fell in the mid-1990s*, giving democracy time to take root, then I suspect things would be in a better state.

*Or alternatively, had the fall of the junta been more radical and resulted in the junta/National and the military being purged then it might have cleared the air and allowed a better political culture to develop. (In reality it probably would have been just as bad or worse with a slightly different set of aggrieved victims, but it would have been different...)
 
Its definitely not helped the transition's internal stability that the Great Recession hit just a few years after the restoration of democracy. Plus to a great degree the current political instability seems to be the 'unfinished business' of the 2000s being dredged up in the poor economic climate. Had the junta fell in the mid-1990s*, giving democracy time to take root, then I suspect things would be in a better state.

*Or alternatively, had the fall of the junta been more radical and resulted in the junta/National and the military being purged then it might have cleared the air and allowed a better political culture to develop. (In reality it probably would have been just as bad or worse with a slightly different set of aggrieved victims, but it would have been different...)
Not helped by the pervious PM being the worse of both worlds. Too timid to go against National, too willing to embrace anything non National.
 
December 2016 Exit Poll
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(Big Ben Chimes)

NATIONAL PARTY WIN

FORECAST NATIONAL LARGEST PARTY IN HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 186 SEATS


JV - And we're saying National is the largest party. 186 seats for William Hague's party, that's up 18. United People's Alliance on 98, that's down 8. The Social Democrats on 94, down 19. Good night result for Unity on 66 seats, up 8. RISE on 14, holding steady. The SNP have rebounded slightly to 10 seats, up 2. And all other parties on 30. I know this all looks very familiar but do not adjust your television sets, we are saying a National plurality but without enough seats to govern - still around 60 seats off a majority. Babita Sharma, what do you make of this?

BS - Of course this is just an exit poll but again we’re seeing William Hague inch closer to the finish line. A few more seats for National and they’ll be unstoppable, a few less seats and the deadlock could remain in place. Disappointing for the Social Democrats, just a few weeks ago Andy Burnham saw a bump in the polls after valiantly failing to form a Government, but this seems to have worn away. If this poll is correct they’ll become a third party - Andy Burnham seems likely to play kingmaker - but is unlikely to wear the crown himself.

JV - Canny viewers will remember however at the last exit poll the BBC predicted the SDP falling to third place, which of course ended up being wrong, leaving egg on our collective faces. So treat this poll with suspicion until you start seeing some real results. Of course all parties went into this election promising an end to the deadlock that dominated the last few months, that doesn't seem to have happened. No party has a solid block of seats that could bring stability to our disunited Kingdom, a Unity National coalition could reach the 251 magic number, but time will tell if Mr Sugar bites.

BS - It wouldn't take a massive margin of error to push National over the line, if they win 10-20 more seats than this exit poll says then it would be almost impossible to form a Government without William Hague at the head. A slightly stronger National party, working with Unity could grant a solidish majority. Or if the parties of the left do slightly better than expected we could be facing a third election.

JV - An absolute disaster for Social Democrats, from those giddy heights of 2005, crashing down to a third party. If the Social Democrats fall to third place it is almost certain they’ll be a leadership challenge, and likely a party split. If the Social Democrats shift to the right, it’s left flank might break away and join Ms Ribeiro-Addy, if it shifts to the left it’s moderates could jump to Unity. It will take a minor miracle to hold the Social Democrats together after this result.

BS - Yes, the party Alan Johnson built was always a big-tent marriage of convenience, proud trade unionists from the tradition of the old Labour Party all the way to pro-EU neo-liberal city financiers. They've suffered from the high-profile defection of Alan Sugar, and had the rug swept under them by the People’s Party. The Social Democrats have never decided what they are, with it’s main founders all coming from different perspectives. Were they a pro-EU liberal party like Alan Milburn wanted? A traditional trade union party like John Prescott wanted? Or a radical progressive party like Peter Tatchell wanted? Andy Burnham of course struggled to hold the party together and the electorate has punished them for that.

JV - It looks like their demise has been a double-edged sword for National. On one hand I'm sure many of those 20 pickups William Hague has received have been from SDP voters, but it's also robbed the party of a grand coalition partner - and a buffer against the UPA reaching official opposition status. Like in July National appear to be isolated in Parliament, they may be the largest party but the UPA wont work with them, the SDP won't work with them and Unity are very hesitant to work with them. Hague will need an unquestionable mandate to secure his second term.

BS - It is interesting to note that despite securing second place the UPA have declined as well, despite most pundits praised the UPA’s energetic campaign, it appears the internal splits have stopped the party truly breaking out as a force for government. Owen Jones and Clive Lewis, two of the party’s heaviest hitters were noticeably absent from the campaign and internal critics say the party has increasingly become the “Bell Show”. She marched all her troops to the top of the hill, can she march them back down again?

JV - The ice is certainly getting thin for many of our party leaders. Thank you Babita. With us here now is Matthew Paris, he is the Unity MP for Derbyshire. Mr Parris good evening - can you imagine being part of a coalition with the National Party?
 
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This is a very bold statement. Just because National is going to remain the largest party in the House absolutely does not preclude that the leftist parties will form the government instead. Me no like
Even in this world UK parties dont like working together. And a two party coalition would be more stable than a multiparty one headed up by the SDP
 
True, but at the same time, National does not exactly have a good image to a lot of people. Not to mention Vague's had to keep balancing between "No we're not the Lord back, stop screaming" actions and having to appease his base who buy into that.....

Which basically pisses off both.
 
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