"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

It seems like the Scottish devolution settlement ITTL is a lot stronger than in OTL. Some immigration powers and what seems like full fiscal autonomy? You're going to have a really interesting experiment in what happens when relatively inexperienced public policy makers suddenly get access to a lot more levers of power. Also, Scotland will be able to act as a lot more of a testing ground for social democratic public policy than it has been even in our TL.

I wonder if the history of previously being three or four regions (with regional civil services) prior to having a unified parliament will limit some of the more centralising tendencies in Scotland. Harder to 'base it all on the Shore' when Glasgow and Aberdeen will lose current jobs as a result.

Exciting stuff!
 
Whilst officials in Whitehall saw both the SNP and Social Democrats as workable partners, who both accepted the Brussels's bailout settlement, they were becoming increasingly worried of a strong performance by RISE or the Worker’s Party, who had both seen sharp upticks in the polls. Whilst most expected the SNP to win the election, having twice as many Westminster MPs as RISE, the result was no-longer a foregone conclusion.
How are the Alternative performing in Scotland? Do they get a lot of their thunder stolen by RISE?

I also find it interesting that, thanks to austerity politics, Scotland might in some ways become one of the *more* Eurosceptic regions of the United Kingdom (albeit for left-wing reasons rather than right-wing ones).
 
How are the Alternative performing in Scotland? Do they get a lot of their thunder stolen by RISE?

I also find it interesting that, thanks to austerity politics, Scotland might in some ways become one of the *more* Eurosceptic regions of the United Kingdom (albeit for left-wing reasons rather than right-wing ones).
The Alternative has a federalist position in regards to constitutional issues, so whilst they support autonomy, they aren't out and out separatists. The Alternative does have some support among working class loyalists and younger people caught up in the OutRage protests, they are currently polling an average of 10% in the five most recent Scottish polls.

Scotland is still very pro-EU as the EU has done a lot of work in regional development around Scotland, and they were some of the loudest voices internationally opposing military action in Scotland.
 
Chapter 69: The Yoons
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Jim Dowson was the ultra-loyalist's political "guru"

“Right now, the very last person the tinderbox of Edinburgh needs to see is the revolting Jim Dowson. Dowson is a notorious extremist who has placed himself at the heart of riots in Edinburgh. Dowson’s attempts to claim he is acting as some sort of peacemaker are, of course, ludicrous. It is clear that individuals from the Orange Volunteers of Scotland are coordinating the violence. The month-long protests have become a lightning rod for loyalist disaffection. That requires a political solution. It is into this toxic mix that this self-aggrandising and self-enriching hatemonger has waded in. The mob will not rule in Scotland or anywhere else, but patient talking, proper policing and intense politicking will. Dowson must step away from the megaphone and let reasoned voices solve this situation.”
- Extremist Jim Dowson is no peacemaker, Daily Record Editorial (2013)

During the Scottish Conflict between the SNLA and the Government, a small number of Loyalist Paramilitaries had popped up, funded by the Security Services and Civil Guard, these would slowly melt away as the Junta liberalised and Britain transitioned to democracy. Whilst the vast majority of Scots were happy with autonomy, as suggested by the referendum result, a small subset of unionists were becoming increasingly radicalised. This allowed these loyalist paramilitaries room to regrow. Directly after the referendum, a group of former Civil Assistance, and other assorted far-right activists under the leadership of Jim Dowson and Gary Raikes announced the reestablishment of the Orange Volunteers of Scotland or OVS.

The OVS had been the largest loyalist paramilitary during the Scottish Troubles, now in its reconstituted form, Dowson pledged in a Youtube video the OVS would take a stand against attempts to make Scotland into an independent socialist republic. Initially action taken by the OVS would remain largely peaceful, such as flag waving protests outside major town halls, these activities would become increasingly proactive and intimidatory, as OVS members would invade meetings by separatist parties chanting slogans. Threats would extent to politicians personally, in one notable instance OVS activists shadowed RISE leader Patrick Harvie, chanting homophobic slurs and threats to his safety. This would lead Harvie and other leading RISE politicians to invest in private security,

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A sitting Scottish politician hadn't been assassinated for almost eight years

By August the OVS would move into open violence, pipe bombs became increasingly common as Ed Lleywllyn, John Swinney and Police Commissioner Stephen House were all targeted by letter bombing campaigns. Whilst none of the three were hurt, House came dangerously close as bomb disposal experts were called to his offices and Tulliallan Castle, Scottish policing’s headquarters, had to be evacuated. The attempt on House’s life showed how militant loyalist tactics had changed, rather than working with agents of the British state, the OVS had turned on the police, seeking to forge their own form of loyalism against the Westminster establishment.

“Militant loyalists have been blamed for sending a letter bomb to secretary of state Ed Llewllyn. Queen Elizabeth House was evacuated after the device was found in a post room shortly after 10.30am yesterday. The landmark building is used by the Public Administrations Secretary when in Scotland, as well as the Scottish Executive Committee. The latest letter bomb is the fourth to be intercepted in recent days. In a statement the OVS also claimed responsibility for sending letter bombs to PSS Chief Constable Stephen House. A similar device was posted to the offices of the Public Prosecution service in Glasgow earlier this week. The OVS has also claimed responsibility for sending that bomb. Police last night said yesterday's device was "similar in make up to the devices found in recent days".” - Condemnation over letter bomb, Severin Carrell, The Guardian (2013)

On the 9th of August loyalist rioting would take place in several major cities across Scotland. Nearly 200 police officers and thousands of passers by were injured in the violence as over 3,000 loyalists looted businesses. Bricks and fireworks were thrown at officers, and they were also attacked with scaffolding poles and paving stones ripped from the city's streets. 23 people, most of them OVS activists, were arrested and charged with inciting the riots. The violence was roundly condemned across the political spectrum with Public Administrations Secretary Edward Lleywllyn flying to Edinburgh personally to survey the damage.

Most damming for National, one National Party provincial legislator, Ross McFarlane had been hospitalised after taking part in the rioting himself. Video footage showed McFarlane, seemingly intoxicated, burning a Scottish flag and shouting sectarian abuse, before being struck by a rubber bullet. Whilst McFarlane was immediately expelled from the damage was already done, many in Scotland's separatist community fundamentally distrusted National, and this incident had only gone to prove National’s biases, further undermining William Hague and the Westminster Government’s ability to work as an honest broker between the two Scottish communities.

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Violence by loyalist militants had been on the decline before the referendum result

With tensions running high ahead of Scottish Parliament elections, calls grew to dispatch further security forces to the Scottish provinces. Home Secretary Steven Woolfe announced a further 1,000 police officers from other regions of the UK would be temporarily transferred to Scotland to keep the peace over the course of the campaign. This wouldn’t be enough for some people, with National MP John Lamont calling for troops to be dispatched to Scotland. The Worker's Party of Scotland’s Aamer Anwar warned Scotland was on a slippery slide towards the return of military occupation”. With violence in the streets and police officers bused in from the south, Scotland began to look like the bad old days.

The violence also occurred on the 40th anniversary of the start of Operation Fork, where in 1973 British troops were sent in Scotland to suppress anti-Junta activities and crack down on SNLA activity. This was roundly seen by historians as the beginning of the Scottish Conflict and one of the darkest periods in Scottish history. Scotland civil society was drifting further and further apart. Even within Scotland’s various communities rifts were growing, with the collapse of the tripartite, Scotland’s main separatist parties were no longer talking, in the unionist camp Unity was displacing both major parties as National moved to the right, Scotland’s election was likely to be chaotic.

“My door is open when circumstances need it. We will never put narrow party or sectional interests above what we judge to be the interests of the community as a whole. Huge strides forward have been taken in Scotland over recent years, and the main paramilitary campaigns have ended. The constitutional issue has been settled on the basis of consent and relations across these provinces have never been stronger. It gives you the opportunity now to move on from the politics of endless negotiations, to making these institutions work. So let’s work together to make autonomy a success. Let’s work together to revive the economy. Let’s work together to build a shared future. And in working together be assured that you have a Prime Minister, and a Government that will always stand by the people here in Scotland.” - William Hague in a speech opening the Scottish Parliament Building (2013)

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Hague didn't want to be know for destroying the Scottish peace process
 
Chapter 70: Secular Talk
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Abortion was a powerful wedge issue

“The British government is expected to present sweeping reforms to the country's liberal abortion laws. This will usher in changes that women's groups are already calling a "serious step backwards". While the reforms have yet to be tabled, the ruling National party has said it favours returning to abortion within 14 weeks of conception. In 2010, under the Social Democrats, Britain relaxed its laws on abortion, giving women the right to an abortion up to 22 weeks of pregnancy. The new reforms are expected to make the procedure illegal in the case of fetal deformities. The prime minister, William Hague, sailed to victory in the 2012 elections, on a manifesto that included a scaling back of abortion laws. Hints earlier this year of the government's intention to follow up on its promise revealed a society divided on the issue.”
- UK's plan to reform abortion laws attacked as 'serious step backwards', Stephen Castle, New York Times (2013)

One of the first things the Johnson administration did under Home Secretary Peter Tatchell was to liberalise abortion. Whilst it had never been banned under the Junta, it had been heavily restricted, only up to ten weeks with the consent of two doctors. Tatchell had raised this to 20 weeks and removed the need for the approval of two doctors, bringing British abortion law in line with most north European nations. Whilst leading the way in women’s rights Johnson era reforms to abortion had outraged the powerful Church of England. Under pressure from his party’s right-wing Hague had pledged to roll-back abortion laws to twelve weeks.

Now with the support of liberals in Reform and the SNP, Hague had hoped to quietly bin this pledge but the powerful Church of England wasn’t having any of it. Various religious and anti-abortion organisation launched a new campaign for Hague to honour his promises. Known as “The Life Campaign”, thousands took to the streets and camped outside the office of Justice Secretary Jeremy Clarkson. The campaign had a budget of over 200,000 thousand euros spent on billboards across the country, as well as pamphlets and direct mail to parishioners. The campaign also took off in social media, urging supporters to change their Facebook profile pictures to images of unborn fetuses.

Leading the campaign were some of Britain’s most senior clergy, including the Arch-Bishop of Canterbury Michael Nazir-Ali who called on those with a “well developed Christian conscience” to join in the campaign. Nation had always been the party of the rural parishioner, the Life Campaign represented the first real break between the Anglican establishment and National Party leadership. Nazir-Ali particularly distrusted Justice Secretary Jeremy Clarkson, a divorcee who in his columns as a journalist had routinely mocked the church for declining attendance numbers and funding difficulties. For senior vicars Clarkson, who spoke openly of his support for abortion and gay marriage, was a symbol of everything wrong with the modern National Party.

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Williams would never have been allowed to rise under the Junta

This wasn’t to say the Church was united in wishing for Clarkson’s head and a rollback of abortion law. Since the fall of the Junta liberal tendencies within the Anglican Church were increasingly organised under groups like the Sea of Faith Movement and the Progressive Christian Network led by figures such as Rowan Williams. With polls showing over 80% of voters supporting Johnson era liberal reforms these figures believed it suicidal for the Church to wade in such a controversial issue. Whilst Williams and his allies were still a minority within the upper echelons of the Church, an openly liberal Anglican faction was still a novelty in post-Junta Britain.

“What has been the nature of Church-state relations in transition Britain? Without a doubt, they have remained much friendlier than during the Wilson period. Whilst the Church has not completely rejected the past regime, few within it desire a return of national-Anglicanism.” The Church has registered its discontent with laws and attempted to influence national politics. Such as when Church hierarchy were involved in attempts by the National government to restrict reproductive rights. In a similar vein, the Church hierarchy was quite vocal in their opposition to Johnson's legislation on gay marriage. But, they have not been successful or for that matter even vocal in advocating its revision since. By far the most conflictal transition issues have surrounded the subject of national unity, not church-state relations.” - Constitutional Politics and Religious Accommodation in Transition Britain, Lecture by Linda Woodhead, University of Lancaster (2016)

Under this overwhelming pressure, Hague confirmed his intentions to submit a Bill redistricting abortion to the Commons. This was not an outcome he wanted, so close to the Scottish election, serving as an easy reminder for other parties that National was the same old authoritarian organisation. In the bill, women seeking abortion were described as “victims”, abortion on request would only be allowed within 14 weeks of conception, any point after the 14 weeks would only be allowed in the case of rape, incest, or considerable medical risk to either the mother or the baby. Many expected Clarkson, a well-known social liberal, to resign, but he agreed to present the bill.

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National didn't have the majority for such sweeping change

The bill was delivered via sledgehammer, fast-tracked to a vote in parliament without National consulting it’s Reform or SNP allies. Some argued this had been done on purpose, the National whips knew a restrictive abortion bill could not pass the Commons in it’s current composition, and only wanted to deliver the bill to shut Nazir-Ali up. Hague feared a protracted debate as the Bill crept it’s way through Parliament would overshadow the vote in Scotland, driving left-wing and separatist voters out to the ballot box. If his wish had been for the bill to be crushed quickly, this wish would be granted. Reform, the SNP and a large chunk of National backbenchers entered the No lobby. Dreams of rolling back Johnson’s social liberal legislation were dead.

The death of the abortion bill represented a changed Britain, snap polling after the Commons debate saw dive in support for National. British voters, even conservative ones, did not have the appetite for a return to the restrictive policies of the past. Britain’s voters were as liberally minded as their cousins on the continent. The failure of the abortion bill also represented the waning power of the Anglican Church, with attendance collapsing, especially among the young, the Church of England simply didn’t possess the political power it held back in the day. Observers commented that whilst Britain was still culturally an Anglican country, politically and spiritually it had transitioned as a secular nation.

“The Anglican Church has not hesitated to project its influence by mobilising its contacts within politics and the media. In 2005, the bishops marched on the streets of London demonstrating ‘in favour of the family’ - and against the recent law on same-sex marriage. However, the fact is that British Anglicans do not share the conservative stance and attitude of the Church hierarchy. According to a 2013 European-wide survey on social values, 71.8% of Brits declared to adhere to a religion, this is above the 67.6% standard for the EU. Brits also matched the average opinion in the continent favourable to the separation of state and religion. But, they evaluated the intensity of their religious feelings below the European average. 37% define themselves as non-practicing believers, 31% as practicing, and 31% as being atheistic.” - Political Anglicanism and the British State, Norman Bonney (2013)

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The Church was struggling to find it's place in transition Britain
 
Hmm, interesting update so far. Wondering if the Progressive Christian Network and the like would find a sympathetic ear, say, with the Episcopal Church in the US and the Anglican Church of Canada, for instance? Could a disestablishment of the C of E (along the lines, say, of the other nations in the UK that also disestablished their national churches) be on the cards?
 
Hmm, interesting update so far. Wondering if the Progressive Christian Network and the like would find a sympathetic ear, say, with the Episcopal Church in the US and the Anglican Church of Canada, for instance? Could a disestablishment of the C of E (along the lines, say, of the other nations in the UK that also disestablished their national churches) be on the cards?
Yes Anglican Church outside the UK, especially the Canadian branches would drift away from the British Anglican Church, some more progressive Anglicans even found refugee in these churches from the Junta. So yes a lot of people in the PCN have strong ties with foreign Anglican Churches.

Disestablishment was floated by the Social Democrats but they never went ahead with it as they had enough on their plates. It definitely won't happen under national but if a more radical left government succeeds them it could be on the cards.
 
2013 Scottish Parliament Election, Part 1
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St Andrew's House would be the home of a new Scottish Parliament

“Elections for the Scottish Parliament, which will elect the first President of Scotland, are to be held on the 25th of November. The six-week electoral campaign has started, with Scotland’s independence as the main topic of debate. Loyalist parties are trying to put the budget cuts and the recovery from the economic crisis upfront. On Thursday, minutes before midnight, political parties officially kicked off the campaign. Polls show that John Swinney’s party, the centrist nationalist SNP, will win the election. Scotland’s political map may change with the Social Democrat Party likely to drop. Swinney is asking for exceptional support from the voters to back Scotland's self-determination process. Polls show dire results for the Social Democratic party, falling into fourth or even fifth place.”
- The official campaign for the Scottish elections starts focused on the independence debate, BBC Radio Scotland Bulletin (2013)

The first Scottish Parliament elections had everything to play for, with sweeping new powers the 95 seat strong legislature would be an unprecedented experiment in devolution politics. Polls showed the SNP and RISE neck and neck in the battle to become Scotland’s largest party, whilst National and the Social Democrats were lagging behind, fighting to become the party of the union. The election became a debate on how much power Scotland should have, and who would best represent the now united provinces. Whilst Swinney and the SNP argued they could secure the best devolution deal for Scotland, RISE was fighting for a clean break from the Westminster politics of the past.

Whilst unionist politicians were bickering, the most interesting development was the founding of the “Alliance for Unity”, a big-tent electoral joint list of the Reform Party, Unity and other smaller unionist parties. Ruth Davidson appeared to have repaired relations with her own party with both Sarah Brown and Alan Sugar appearing on a platform together to endorse Davidson’s new alliance. Davidson pledged that the Alliance would overtake both of the establishment national parties to become Scotland’s largest unionist party, and with this position she would create a grand coalition of loyalist parties to ensure an anti-separatist President for the Nation.

Davidson had high name recognition from her role on the No Campaign and a strong performance in the referendum debates. With neither Ben Wallace of National or Yvette Cooper of the Social Democrats enjoying high approval ratings, Davidson was by far the most popular unionist politician on the board. The Alliance’s pitch seemed to win over several unionist politicians. A handful of loyalist politicians from both major parties would jump ship, most notably Jim Murphy, a junior minister in the Johnson administration, left the Social Democrats to stand as an Alliance candidate. Murphy would describe SDP Scotland leader Yvette Cooper’s claims she could become First Minister as “intellectually arrogant”, calling on Social Democratic voters to back the AFU to ensure a loyalist administration.

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RISE had a much larger base in civil society and activist groups than the SNP

Whilst the Alliance would dominate conversations on the Unionist side, RISE would headline separatist papers. Whilst RISE had started out far behind the SNP in polls, a combination of the SNP’s deal with National, austerity and Patrick Harvie’s personal popularity from the referendum campaign, allowed the party to match and even slightly overtake the SNP in some polls. RISE’s growth was seen as a sign Scottish society was becoming more polarised, the separatist community was no longer willing to wait for the incremental change Swinney offered. RISE advertised itself as a party willing to take Westminster, and the loyalist parties, head on. Recent attacks by loyalist militants further help to radicalise Scottish nationalists, pushing them further into RISE’s column.

“Scotland and Britain are moving apart at a fast pace, and very little is being done to bring them back together. Support for Scottish independence has mushroomed to 55%, 60% - or, in a few polls, nearly 70%. The Scottish independence movement has broken records for the largest demonstrations in Europe. Over a million people formed a human chain across Scotland in 2012, and as many as 1.3 million formed a giant V (for "vote") across Edinburgh in September. This could be, if sustained, a ground-changing transformation. The financial crisis and austerity, have only gone to inflate tensions further. There is also a pervasive sense that the central government never listens to Scots and treats them with contempt - a much-repeated word here.” - Is Britain inflating the Scottish souffle? CNBC Bulletin (2013)

Pundits would describe the Scottish Elections as the “war of the flags” as ordinary households were pushed to show their alignment more overtly. Scottish flags would be flung from every house in separatist strongholds like Dundee, whilst in loyalist areas like the Shetland Islands Union Flags would be proudly displayed in windows and outside shops. In cities like Edinburgh, divided between separatist and loyalist communities, sporadic fighting would break out, as youths would invade rival neighbourhoods to tear down the flags. Some even reported armed vigilantes aligned with either the OVS or SNLA taking up positions outside major buildings to protect the flag of their community.

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The Troika were increasingly concerned of a RISE/Worker's Party administration

The SNP would try to resuscitate it’s flagging campaign by moving onto the issue of public finances. With Scotland getting near complete fiscal autonomy, she would be responsible for a nation-wide budget for the first time. Scotland was also responsible for meeting her chunk of Britain's obligations to it’s troika credit-masters, in other words cuts. Both the SNP and All for Unity would form an unholy alliance, warning if the leftist RISE was elected, they risked driving Scotland into bankruptcy and failing on it’s EU debts. Swinney in particular warned if RISE failed to get a handle on Scotland’s economy they risked reinstituting direct rule from London, losing all the gains the SNP had made in securing a Scottish Autonomy deal.

With polls showing the SNP and RISE far ahead of the other parties, either Swinney or Harvie were likely to become Scotland’s President, unless the unionists could duct-tape together a mad loyalist coalition. Whoever won the support of Scottish voters would have quite the in-tray, from paramilitary violence, to debt collection, it would be a mountain to climb. Both the separatist leaders faced an unavoidable collision course with Prime Minister Hague, who promised no further powers and no referendum on independence. Some suggested the Presidency would be a poison chalice, and that both men should let the other have the first drink, but it was too late for that. As the ballots were cast and history made, someone would need to take a sip.

“Polls have closed in Scotland in a snap election that could pave the way for Britain's largest region to seek statehood. John Swinney, the SNP president, has promised 3.8 million voters he will hold a referendum on self-determination if he wins a renewed mandate. Four hours after voting began, Scottish government figures showed voter participation at a high for Scottish elections at 61.5%. Swinney's SNP could take 23 to 27 of the 95 seats in parliament, the latest opinion polls showed. Polls suggest the SNP will emerge as the largest party, but without the separatist absolute majority it had sought. But, those leftist parties in favour of an independence referendum also appear to have performed well. As votes are being counted, the Social Democrats and new Alliance for Unity are fighting to be the largest loyalist party.” - Scotland polls close amid independence calls, Al Jazeera (2013)

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Turnout was expected to be high, a good sign for the more radical parties
 
Yes Anglican Church outside the UK, especially the Canadian branches would drift away from the British Anglican Church, some more progressive Anglicans even found refugee in these churches from the Junta. So yes a lot of people in the PCN have strong ties with foreign Anglican Churches.
Sounds like a recipe for some Anglican Communion politics where it gets divided into a pro-Junta and anti-Junta Communions - and with the Episcopal Church starting to change precisely around the time of the coup towards a more social justice-oriented approach, the divisions would be more profound.

So far, though, the focus is on the C of E. The UK itself is not necessarily all under the C of E, and indeed has other provinces (all of which are disestablished) - including one, the Church of Ireland, that straddles both sides of the Irish border. With all the shenanigans going on ITTL with Northern Ireland (where its mother church in Armagh is located) while the Republic of Ireland does its own thing, at the same time as British refugees make their way to the other side of the Irish Sea, would the Church of Ireland have any additional role with regards to anti-Junta efforts? (I'd also ask something similar about the Church in Wales and the Scottish Episcopal Church, but I'd figure that would be asking too much for a topic in an otherwise excellent TL.)
 
Sounds like a recipe for some Anglican Communion politics where it gets divided into a pro-Junta and anti-Junta Communions - and with the Episcopal Church starting to change precisely around the time of the coup towards a more social justice-oriented approach, the divisions would be more profound.

So far, though, the focus is on the C of E. The UK itself is not necessarily all under the C of E, and indeed has other provinces (all of which are disestablished) - including one, the Church of Ireland, that straddles both sides of the Irish border. With all the shenanigans going on ITTL with Northern Ireland (where its mother church in Armagh is located) while the Republic of Ireland does its own thing, at the same time as British refugees make their way to the other side of the Irish Sea, would the Church of Ireland have any additional role with regards to anti-Junta efforts? (I'd also ask something similar about the Church in Wales and the Scottish Episcopal Church, but I'd figure that would be asking too much for a topic in an otherwise excellent TL.)
Yes absolutely, strong divisions in the Communion between pro and anti junta factions as well as the usual internal battles.

The Church of Ireland would initially start out as agnostic on the Junta, but as the Junta took more heavy handed action towards Northern Ireland, and more Anglican Refugees came into the Republic, the Church of Ireland would become increasingly critical of both the Church of England and the Junta itself, lending it's support to the anti-Junta bloc within the International Communions.
 
2013 Scottish Parliament Exit Poll
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(Big Ben Chimes)

SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY WIN

FORECAST SNP LARGEST PARTY IN SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT WITH 24 SEATS


Brian Taylor: And for the first ever Scottish Parliament, here’s our exit poll. And it’s predicting a SNP victory with 24 seats, followed by RISE on 20, the Alliance for Unity on 14, the Social Democrats on 12, the Alternative on 9, National on 8 and all other parties also on 8. So with some quick maths we can work out that’s 44 seats for the separatists and 45 seats for the loyalists, Glenn?

Glenn Campbell: Well folks the Scottish Parliament is on a knife’s edge, and we’ll have to find out where those “other” seats have landed to get a fuller picture. If they’ve gone to the Workers Party or Ecology we might see a seperatist majority - on the other hand Jim Donaldson’s Scottish Democratic Alliance of ultra loyalists has been hoping to pick up a seat or two as well. But it is looking like neither community can claim a knockout blow.

BT - Yes indeed if this exit poll is true we might have seen a so called "unionist backlash", by voters who want more autonomy but not full independence. A lot of pundits assumed that those 75% of Scots who backed autonomy would back seperatist parties, but of course that's not necessarily true.

GC - Absolutely, speaking of the forces of the union the breakout star tonight has to be the Alliance. If this exit poll is remotely true they’ve come from literally nowhere to form Scotland’s largest loyalist party. The Social Democrats who could once comfortably rely on the votes of loyalists and soft-nats have fallen all the way down to fourth place - not a good sign for David Miliband.

BT - Yes with RISE surging it looks like both communities are in no mood to compromise. If I was John Swinney I’d be chewing my fingernails, just a few more seats and Patrick Harvie can take the mantle as king seperatist. If RISE becomes the largest party they'll want to lead any seperatist coalition, it might be difficult for some in the SNP to swallow their pride and accept second fiddle.

GC - Of course whilst the SNP and RISE agree on constitutional issues, they have very different attitudes towards public spending and the all-important bailout deal. Whoever becomes Scotland's President will gain control of the national purse strings, they'll have to drive down the deficit as stipulated in the 2012 agreement with the European Central Bank.

BT - Coalition talks become even more volatile when you see that either combined the two major seperatist parties don’t have the votes to form a Government, they might have to go cap in hand to the Workers Party, I can’t see the SNP’s right wing being happy with that. Some members of the party are worried if they are seen to push too far or act irresponsibly, Westminster might move to snatch back some of their shiny new powers.

GC - Absolutely, does John Swinney try and get the Alliance and Social Democrats on board for a centrist cross-community government? Or will he put constitutional questions first by teaming up with Patrick Harvie? Or can the age old enemies of Social Democrat and National put their differences aside to keep the separatists out? I'm sure we'll see some interesting mixing and matching over the next few weeks, maybe even seeing old enemies becoming allies.

BT - To answer these questions we have in the studio Michael Matheson, he’s an SNP MP for Eastern Scotland. So Mr Matheson would you be willing to offer the Workers Party a seat at the table to ensure a seperatist majority?
 
If the loyalists can think straight for at least four years, they can form an unlikely but possibly workable coalition that may help them consolidate the loyalist cause even further.
But if only.
 
Yes absolutely, strong divisions in the Communion between pro and anti junta factions as well as the usual internal battles.
That would make for an interesting sidebar TL all on its own, by someone more well versed in Anglican church history than myself (as there's a lot I don't know). Yet considering how religion has long ben part of the history of the British state, it certainly is an important factor that should not be overlooked. In any case, once the current Archbishop ITTL is gone, the C of E will need to go through some major reform and restructuring, probably even contemplating a name change to distance itself from its Junta-era past and become better prepared once disestablishment does happen.

The Church of Ireland would initially start out as agnostic on the Junta, but as the Junta took more heavy handed action towards Northern Ireland, and more Anglican Refugees came into the Republic, the Church of Ireland would become increasingly critical of both the Church of England and the Junta itself, lending it's support to the anti-Junta bloc within the International Communions.
Now that would be absolutely interesting - and would probably make the Church of Ireland's mother church in Armagh a target for Loyalist paras. Still, it would be great for the Church of Ireland to make its stance known on this, providing a brave anti-Junta voice.
 
Those votes were cast for a hanged parliament, and if they're unwilling to bargain in parliament then now the electoral campaign has ended the bombing campaign might start.

I didn't mention whose. In such a society _it doesn't matter._
 
What happens to buildings e.g Buckingham Palace, 10 Downing Street, Westminster Cathedral & The Houses Of Parliament?
All left the same as OTL, the Junta was a big fan of history, so they all stayed in place with Downing Street becoming the residence of the First Lord.

Westminster Cathedral saw some graffiti from Anglican hardliners but was generally left alone.
 
2013 Scottish Parliament Election, Part 2
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Passions were high on election night

“Voters in the UK's Scotland region have given a majority to parties seeking Scottish independence. But, Executive Committee Chair John Swinney, who pushed for autonomy, had a disappointing night. His centrist SNP fell to second place, winning 22 seats out of 95 seats. The left-wing separatist RISE won with 24 seats. But despite their combined majority, the parties may be unable to work together. Both the SNP and RISE want to hold a referendum on independence from the UK. RISE's Patrick Harvie told CNN he would consult the people on independence within the next four years. "I am happy with tonight's results," he said, "but not as happy as I could have been." Loyalists have accused Harvie of trying to exploit the economic crisis, pointing to deficits in seperatist run provinces. Mr Harvie says Scotland gets a raw deal in regards to austerity from the central government".
- Separatists win majority in Scottish election, CNN News Bulletin (2013)


The results were incredibly close. Not only in terms of the constitutional question, where separatists outnumbered loyalists 52 to 43 but also which party should lead each side of the independence debate. RISE had beaten the SNP by just two points to win a plurality of the seats and to become the largest nationalist party in the Parliament. Meanwhile all four major unionist parties sat within margin of error of each other, but ultimately the new Alliance for Unity had won out. All in all nine parties had made it into the Scottish Parliament, some - like Ecology - had slid in by the skin of their teeth. With only 95 seats in a chamber divided nine ways the Parliament was massively fragmented.

Forming a workable coalition would require at least three or four parties to get the ball rolling.Initially some in the unionist press floated a grand coalition of loyalist parties, coming together to lock the Nats out. But this was dead on impact, even combined the parties of the union only had 43 seats, five short of the 48 needed for a majority. Even if they did have the numbers such an unwieldy alliance would need both the post-communist Socialist Alternative, and the far-right Scottish Democratic Alliance to work together, not to mention the decades-long beef between National and the Social Democrats that would need to be put aside for such an unholy alliance to form.

In reality there were only two real ways forward. Firstly a nationalist coalition between RISE and the SNP, whilst this was the most obvious option it faced two major hurdles. Even together the two parties didn’t have a majority, so they would still need the help of other seperatist parties like the Workers Party or Ecology to gain control of St Andrew’s House - the other option would be working with some of the more soft unionist “federalist” parties like the Alternative or SDP. The second issue would be economic, RISE was a left-wing populist party, much of their campaign had been based on railing against the bailout and austerity. The SNP on the other hand was proudly pro-European and sought to uphold the Troika settlement.

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The OutRage protests were still on the streets of Scottish cities

“In Edinburgh it was legislators, not demonstrators, who were challenging the post-Mountbatten settlement. Election results have forced politicians to adapt to a game-changing Scottish Parliament. Demonstrations for independence have brought thousands of Scots onto the city's streets. Election winner Patrick Harvie has called for Scotland to have its own state. Elections were seen as a plebiscite on that, but as his seperatist RISE party surged. Once let out of its cage, the independence tiger may now prove impossible to put back – with polls showing a reasonable majority now in favour. A sign of how serious the debate is was the reappearance of British monarch Queen Elizabeth in the political terrain. The Queen warned Scottish separatists against chasing "chimeras".”
- The shape of modern Britain is being questioned, Eric Regul, The Globe and Mail (2013)

Option B would be a cross-community coalition of both loyalist and seperatist parties. This was floated by some on the moderate wing of the SNP who wanted to lock out RISE and would prefer to work with the AFU, SDP and National. This would come with the added bonus of not pissing up the European Central Bank. However Swinney’s main goal, alongside most of the SNP’s more radical and liberal wing, was an independence referendum. The AFU and National’s main pitch had been opposition to any referendum no matter the circumstances. The SNP’s whole raison d'etre was an independent Scotland, if they couldn’t secure a referendum then what was all this fighting for?

Despite falling to second place Swinney found himself as the most powerful person in Scotland, and the Parliament’s kingmaker. Deciding to test his options he dispatched envoys to Davidson, Cooper and Wallace to see what a “cross-community” government could deliver for him. It turned out not a lot, all three parties rejected a referendum on independence out of hand, whilst Cooper was open to further devolution of powers both Davidson and Wallace gave a hard no to any constitutional meddling. The AFU especially weren’t particularly enthusiastic in negotiations, having been founded as an inherently anti-SNP list, Davidson was quite looking forward to being opposition leader which would only boost her position as queen of the unionists.

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Davidson had by far the highest approval ratings of any loyalist politician

A deal with Harvie would have to be done. Both RISE and the SNP had historically held good relations, with a non-aggression pact through most of the early days of the transition. Whilst the pact had largely fallen apart leading up to the Autonomy Referendum, Harive and Swinney got on well personally, and Harvie, along with his allies, had done a lot to detoxify RISE in wake of the Sheridan scandal. Most importantly Harvie could promise a Scottish Independence Referendum within the parliamentary term. Whilst RISE said they would seek “frank negotiations” with the Treasury and EU on Scotland’s contribution to the national bailout, they would not seek to jeopardise the bailout or sour relations with the EU. With this agreement reached the RISE/SNP pact was reborn, now they just needed to find a third partner.

“One of the most popular arguments in the nationalist rhetoric is ‘Westminster steals from us’. All Scottish nationalist parties have claimed that London takes more than its fair share from Scotland - especially in regards to oil. They argue a much larger share of the oil revenue collected in Scotland should stay in Scotland. This anti-Westminster argument is the most compelling of those used by Scottish nationalists. But this argument does not justify the claim for outright independence. It seems to resonate more with the stance of the Padanian Lega Nord than with the anti-colonialist ideal many of the nationalist cause have in mind. Nationalist leaders claim that an independent Scotland would be like Sweden or the Netherlands. Scotland is very far from these benchmark cases.” - Misunderstandings about Scotland, Lecture by Jan Eichhorn, LSE (2013)

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Scotland's economy had been tanked by austerity, occupation and civil strife
 
2013 Scottish Parliament Election Detailed Results
Author's Note: There is an error in the wikibox, there are 95 seats in the Scottish Parliament not 97
  • RISE - 24
  • Scottish National Party - 22
  • Alliance for Unity - 12
  • Social Democratic Party of Scotland - 11
  • Socialist Alternative - 10
  • National Party - 9
  • Worker's Party of Scotland - 5
  • Scottish Democratic Alliance - 1
  • Scotland Ecologists - 1
 
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