Especially if he's not even gonna slice the military budget, which is probably big enough to afford some slices.
"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
- National Front - 30
- Union for a Popular Movement - 28
- Socialists -19
- Left Front - 8
- Movement for Democracy - 6
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When in doubt, Liberals abstain. Ugh.
Looking forward (and not looking forward) to seeing what happens next!
EDIT: As an aside, what happened to Yanis Varoufakis in TTL? I imagine he didn't study in the UK like OTL.
Looking forward (and not looking forward) to seeing what happens next!
EDIT: As an aside, what happened to Yanis Varoufakis in TTL? I imagine he didn't study in the UK like OTL.
Deleted member 169412
Mebyon Kernow got elected?
That's surprising given that I don't think the junta would have been keen on a Cornish revival. I'm still surprised that the NNP haven't picked up any seats given that around this time Golden Dawn were doing well in Greece, but I won't complain.
I believe powerab explained that the seats are allotted through proportional representation in each province, thus setting a high cutoff point for winning seats and possibly locking out small parties whose support is not highly concentrated in certain areas. So Mebyon Kernow might have a shot at a seat if their percentage in Cornwall (or whatever larger province Cornwall is part of - I don't remember if the TL specified this) is high enough.
The fact that the junta wouldn't have been keen on a Cornish revival is probably why it did well. Amy revival would have been done in exile or underground so would automatically get sucked into the realm of anti-junta politics and get wrapped up with local democratic activism and resistance.
Also the fact that it is focused on a small area means it can run almost entirely on local issues and get enough of the vote to be elected in a PR system.
So SDP proposed an austerity-bailout plan National opposed and went down with it, only to see Tories to pass literally the same piece of paper a second after winning the elections (and with Social Democrats not endorsing it, by the way). Voters tend to not be kind on this genre of things. Also I realised UK never had Winter of Discontent, the Monetarist transition or the miners’ strikes ITTL, so this is going to be bad, very bad.
I can see Reform and SNP taking a big hit: with independentism on rise due the referendum and conservative central government’s unpopularity in Scotland they are going to lose vote in favour of RISE, SA and SDP.
Talking about the last two, Milliband can’t be entirely blamed for the defeat but if can’t put a fight against austerity the party will stay down and he could be replaced. About this, who is in the shadow cabinet?
Meacher’s health issues mean he is not going to contest the next election, so it would be interesting seeing younger leadership take charge. A part Diane Abbott, who are the other SA leadership team members who could succeed Meacher?
PS
Current National be like:
National Party MP: “We beat these dirty Commies, didn’t we? Army boys are back in charge, men, to restore good government and Britain’s pride in the world. Now, where’s the money?”
Austerity Troika Monster:
I can see Reform and SNP taking a big hit: with independentism on rise due the referendum and conservative central government’s unpopularity in Scotland they are going to lose vote in favour of RISE, SA and SDP.
Talking about the last two, Milliband can’t be entirely blamed for the defeat but if can’t put a fight against austerity the party will stay down and he could be replaced. About this, who is in the shadow cabinet?
Meacher’s health issues mean he is not going to contest the next election, so it would be interesting seeing younger leadership take charge. A part Diane Abbott, who are the other SA leadership team members who could succeed Meacher?
PS
Current National be like:
National Party MP: “We beat these dirty Commies, didn’t we? Army boys are back in charge, men, to restore good government and Britain’s pride in the world. Now, where’s the money?”
Austerity Troika Monster:
Oh dear. Like giving a monkey a hand-grenade. You don't know what is going to happen, but you are pretty sure you don't want to be anywhere near it when it does.
Varoufakis instead went to Trinity College Dublin, which became the leading English Language University in Europe.
As usual the readers have explained it better than I ever could
Mebyon Kernow played a fairly sizeable role in pro-democracy and civil rights movements in South West England, several secretly MK members would be elected to local councils as "Independents". Thus when the Junta fell, the Cornish Nationalist movement had some fairly strong political infrastructure, compared to other movements. Since MK had a large concentration of support in the Cornwall Province allowing them to win an MP.
The New Nationalists had the opposite problem, whilst they scored nearly 2% of the National vote share, their support was fairly evenly spread across the country, they were unable to break individual thresholds in any one seat. Also since the Junta memory is still very fresh, people are hesitant to vote for an openly fascist party. It took 40 years for the Greek far-right to return after the fall of their Junta and 50 years for the Spanish.
Since they've only just lost power the SDP's Shadow Cabinet is just the old Cabinet sitting on a different side of the House, but pundits expect Miliband to conduct a reshuffle soon.
As for the Alternative, Abbott is the favourite to replace Meacher, other potential candidates include Katy Clark, Robert Griffiths, Ken Loach, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Dave Nellist, Lutfur Rahman, Mark Steel, Steve Turner, Lindsey German and Salma Yaqoob
I wonder if he might make any interesting interventions in the Irish debt crisis? Speaking of perhaps butterflies mean there's no Irish debt crisis in TTL, I can't remember seeing Ireland referenced in your story posts so far. Although it might just be poor readership on my part...
When I was a teenager I adored Mark Steel's radio series Solution, Revolution, and Lectures. They were always on repeat on BBC Radio 4 extra and I must have heard them all a dozen times. Let's hope he wins the Alternative leadership!
I'm coming late to this but considering British immigration policy/Britain looking like a less attractive place to migrate too some of those people might not actually exist or at least won't be in Britain.
Ireland’s been mentioned several times, most recently needing a bailout similar to otl. We’ve also been mentioned as one of the more attractive place to emigrate to when the recession kicked off and previously when Britain joined the EU and under the Mountbatten era
Yaqoob’s parented migrated in Britain in the 1960s.
Raham migrated shortly after his birth in 1965.
Both came in UK before the Coup (1969).
Ireland's a fair bit richer as its got a much larger population and has benefited from being the main bridge between the Anglosphere and the EU. They have had a debt crisis similar to OTL and needed a bailout but the crisis was a bit less harsh than otl due to the stronger Irish Economy, more Spain than Greece. Sunstones summed it up pretty well!
Chapter 66: The Almighty Euro
The Reuben Brothers, powerful property tycoons, had a very cosy relation with National
“Prime Minister William Hague told the leadership of the National Party on Wednesday that corruption was a thing of the past. Hague said: "I don't want Britain to become an uninhabitable country because people are accused without evidence. This has nothing to do with hiding anything, or trivialising or forgetting. All corruption is unacceptable and we need to fight it wherever it appears," quoted senior sources. "This party has acted as soon as it learned of corruption at a level that no one else has equalled," he added. Hague also made a direct reference to what he called incidents of "harassment" that various members of his party had experienced. In an indirect reference to the form of protest known as the "scratch" in which protesters target individual politicians at their home.” - PM targets 2013 as turnaround year, BBC News Bulletin (2013)
Hague entered Downing Street with a huge target on his back, as National turned off the spending taps the press began to look deeper into the party’s finances. This was the first time National had faced real intensive press scrutiny, during the Junta years journalists had been fairly toothless, and when in opposition they had been mostly ignored by spooks chasing stories on the Social Democrats. A party unused to accountability, having spent years under the radar and with the tacit support of the security services, meant there was a well of corruption waiting to be uncovered. Many of Britain’s journalists remembered how National had treated them under the Junta; they certainly weren’t going to be gentle in their investigations.
The wolves would get their first bite at National when the accounts of the National Party were leaked by Channel 4, over five years of financial documentation found their way into public hands. The documents showed National’s Secretary General Rupert Harrison had taken financial donations from leading businessmen and financiers without declaring said donations to the Central Electoral Authority. The papers showed these donations going into payment to senior party officials without any declared purpose, including yearly payments of 35,000 euros to Hague himself, as well as these over 47,000 euros were spent on miscellaneous purchases labelled with names such as “Theresa Suits” or “William ties”.
One excerpt showed May claiming 4,000 euros for a suit
Several other senior National Figures would be named in this documentation including Tim Collins, David Davis and Ed Davey. These documents became known as the “Harrison Papers”, named after the party’s Secretary General who had to sign off on all the accounts. In a time when National was making deep cuts to public services, and preaching the need for national restraint, revelations that he had paid himself 30,000 euros outraged the population. Within a week of the papers being published over 1.4 million people had signed a petition calling for Hague’s resignation. Harrison was quickly identified as National’s fall guy - In a four hour interview with the Times he claimed full responsibility for the financial misconduct, claiming neither Hague, May or Collins had any knowledge of the secret negotiations. In one particularly mocked clip, Harrison declared he had merely been “overzealous” in reimbursing expenses.
“Britain’s National Party funded itself through kickbacks, former General Secretary Rupert Harrison has told the Times. Harrison is the central figure in a major graft cases which have damaged the credibility of National. Corruption scandals have crushed faith in Britain's two major parties and angered Brits suffering under a recession. Harrison said that National received kickbacks from construction magnates in return for contracts in provinces governed by the party. Harrison’s lawyer, Alfie Taylor, was not available for comment on Sunday. A spokeswoman for the National Party declined to comment on the interview. Harrison is charged with money laundering, bribery, tax fraud and other crimes in an ongoing investigation. He is also under investigation for a National slush fund that distributed donations to party leaders.” - UK ruling party funded itself illegally, says ex-secretary general, Reuters (2013)
Police arrested Harrison, and several other high-ranking National Party staffers, but declined to make any arrests of leading political figures. Still with Harrison’s trial likely to last several years, Hague hoped to ride out the storm by hunkering down in Downing Street. Hague refused to speak to the press or face Parliament on the issue, with Justice Secretary Jeremy Clarkson - the party’s attack dog - sent out to be savaged on the media rounds. Smelling blood, the Social Democrats threatened a motion of no-confidence in Hague, mere months after he ascended to office. Hague’s Parliamentary allies began to wobble, John Swinney stated whilst the SNP would continue to honour their pact with National, he would allow SNP MPs to vote no confidence in Hague personally unless he addressed the Commons personally.
Hague had survived by being the least offensive player on the board
Backed into a corner, Hague was forced to face the music in Westminster. In his address to the Commons Hague confessed he had made a “mistake” in trusting Harrison and denied taking illegal funds. He distanced himself from Harrison, only describing him as “the offender” in his speech, he also accused the opposition of trying to “criminalise” him and other leading National politicians, who he argued were also victims of Harrison. The Prime Minister confirmed that Harrison had been expelled from the National Party and declared his full support for criminal charges against Harrison, furthermore he announced he would bring in independent economists to conduct a full audit of the National Party’s finances. Above all, Hague refused to resign, nor call snap elections.
The fact police refused to even investigate Hague showed the Security Services continued to ignore corruption if it came from perceived political allies. Several Social Democratic politicians had received a lot harsher treatment for much smaller crimes. The Harrison Papers destroyed any honeymoon period, with one poll showing support for National collapsing to just 30%, leaving the party with only a one percent lead against the SDP’s 29%. But by throwing Harrison under the bus Hague’s political career had been saved, and his premiership could hold on just a little while longer. But National’s loss hadn’t been the Social Democrats gain, polls showed the public seeing both parties as corrupt, anger - one could even say outrage - was growing.
“You have taken everything from me! These were the words of Isla Clark, a 47-year-old woman who recently walked into her bank in Leicester, poured petrol over her body and set herself on fire. She was indebted to the bank, living on €360 a month, and had received an eviction notice. Behind Britain's new unemployment figures, with 27% of the population now out of work, lie many such stories of desperation. In the last three months there have been 20 suicides where economic hardship was a factor reported in the media. It has been two years since the Outraged took over public squares around the country to protest. Now, from health workers to trade unions and youth groups, hundreds of thousands have mobilised. More people are making the journey from private sadness to public indignation.” - In Britain they are all outraged nowadays, Steven Hill, The Atlantic (2013)
In meeting halls across the country something was brewing
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Deleted member 169412
I honestly hope he gets made leader if only because it would be interesting in the Chinese sense.
Re Mebyon Kernow and neofascism - that makes sense.
Oh bloody hell, that last bit has more than a few notes of "Arab Spring" to it.
That doesn't really make sense. While the Ireland has benefitted as a gateway for American companies to enter the UK that actually doesn't generate that many jobs though it does generate quite a lot of tax, despite the very low rates. The broader Irish economy is massively exposed to the British economy especially with regards to agricultural exports, tourism and remittances, a poorer, more closed Britain will seriously derail the Celtic Tiger.
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‘Rural Ireland would not have survived’ without money being sent home by emigrants
‘Disappointment’ from Irish emigrant groups at Noel Grealish’s comments on immigrants sending money home
Ireland Remittances, percent of GDP - data, chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com
Ireland: Remittances as percent of GDP: For that indicator, we provide data for Ireland from 1990 to 2022. The average value for Ireland during that period was 0.29 percent with a minimum of 0.04 percent in 2021 and a maximum of 0.58 percent in 1990. The latest value from 2022 is 0.08 percent...