"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

[powerab]

Candidate debate highlights deep divisions within Social Democratic Party

By Adam Fleming

Weeks of internal confrontation within the SDP climaxed on Monday with a three-way debate between the candidates. On July 27-29th, 1,373 party delegates will decide who gets to lead a divided party whose fracture lines showed at the debate, held at Callaghan House in London.

Alan Sugar laid the blame for the party’s continuing crisis on Alan Johnson, and his preferred successor David Miliband. Sugar, who is focusing on Miliband as the rival to beat, said that his constant “swerving” on the issues during the debate would lead to defeat for the SDP. At the local elections, the SDP lost nearly 9,000 Councillors, representing their worst ever electoral result. Leader Alan Johnson was forced into a humiliating resignation after failing to pass an EU bailout through Parliament.

“David, the problem is you,” said Sugar on Monday, accusing his rival of lacking a clear project. “I don’t think you are pro-bailout or anti-bailout: you are pro-David Miliband and you do whatever is in your own best interest.”

The third man, Culture Secretary Andy Burnham, blamed both Miliband and Sugar for getting a bad deal with the European Troika. The bailout, and subsequent austerity move is a betrayal that the party grassroots have not forgiven

“Alan, I hope you will acknowledge that you got a bad deal in Copenhagen,” he told him.

Besides attacking one another, all nominees also made campaign promises. “If the SDP, with me at the helm, does not do better at the polls, I will leave; I will not lay the responsibility at anyone else’s feet,” said Sugar. And Burnham announced that “if I am secretary general, my first measure will be to fly to Brussels to renegotiate the Copenhagen deal.”

David Miliband accused both his rivals of helping create a rift within the Social Democrats. He warned that the SDP “runs the risk of splintering and disappearing” if either man won.

Miliband has portrayed himself as the only candidate who can find common ground between the different factions of the party. “We are divided and confronted with extinction,”

Miliband accused Sugar of plotting against Johnson's leadership and hammered him for suggesting a grand coalition with William Hague.

Miliband is seen as the favourite, but figures from earlier this month revealed that the contest is closer than expected. Polls have shown Sugar slipping in support and Burnham surging upwards. One YouGov poll showed Sugar only favoured by 20% of party members.

Both Miliband and Sugar have taken it easy on Burnham in the campaign, in a bid to attract some of his supporters. However Burnham's rise in the polls suggest this strategy may change. Adam Fleming, BBC News

 

[powerab]

Alan Milburn, the SDP's former deputy leader waded into the debate

“Coverage of the SDP leadership race has reached a new degree of intensity. Much of the focus centres around an article former Deputy Leader Alan Milburn has written for the Guardian. Milburn has urged SDP delegates not to vote for anti-bailout candidate Andy Burnham. Addressing his appeal to delegates, Mr Millburn writes: "If Burnham becomes leader, the party faces a very difficult period" One of Burnham's supporters, MP Jon Trickett, says Mr Burnham represents the "dismantling of the leave it all to the EU ideology'." Burnham's campaign is focused on issues including council housing, social insecurity and immigration. At a campaign stop in Sandwell, West Midlands Mr Burnham told journalists: "My campaigning agenda is shifting the terms of debate." - SDP faces 'annihilation', says Alan Millburn, BBC News Bulletin (2012)

With Burnham’s eurosceptic crusade gaining traction, Callaghan House began to scramble. SDP bigwigs knew Burnham only had to gain a plurality of votes to win the party leadership, with Miliband and Sugar splitting the pro-European moderate vote, Burnham could easily sneak into the party leadership. The Miliband campaign dispatched a delegation, led by Health Secretary Douglas Alexander, to try and talk the Chancellor into backing out. Eventually the two men would meet in the uber-posh Ivy Restaurant in Soho to hash out a plan. Miliband made Sugar quite the offer, he promised to make Sugar the most powerful Chancellor ever, secure in his role at Number 11. However Sugar appeared to have missed the memo, instead demanding Miliband drop out of the race and promise his delegates to Sugar’s campaign. This was despite the fact Miliband had twice as many MPs and promised delegates as Sugar, as well as the backing of two major trade unions.

The "Ivy Deal" fell at the first hurdle

Needless to say both men left disappointed, there would be no deals. Instead both candidates cranked up their attack on Burnham. SDP big beasts like former Chancellor Simon Hughes and Senate Leader Liam Byrne gave their backing to Miliband, condemning Burnham for running a “dangerous” campaign. In Brussels too the EU was becoming increasingly panicked, the British economy couldn’t survive a protracted negotiation as well as a possible general election. Thus the party establishment firmly threw its weight behind Miliband, allowing him to rally his support. Sugar meanwhile continued to collapse in polling, as pro-bailout members abandoned him for fear of Burnham. By the time the Extraordinary Federal Congress rolled around in Edinburgh, the contest had gone from a battle between Miliband and Sugar, to a last scramble to push Burnham away and secure the crown for Miliband.

Analysts on the conference floor reported an incredibly close race, with dozens of delegates still deciding. Surrogates all three campaigns launched a mad scramble across the Congress floor to secure support for their man. After a two day conference, at midday on the 29th of July, party delegates cast their ballots. The result was a Miliband victory by the slimmest of margins, a little over 20 delegates in it. The strong organising machinery of the Miliband campaign, coupled with Burnham’s relatively low name recognition allowed Miliband to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He had run as a unity candidate and he now had to bring all wings of his party back together and prepare for a bruising general election, few envied Miliband’s position.

“I started this leadership campaign saddened by defeat and concerned about the future of the party. The results in May were bad. Very very bad. I salute the outstanding efforts of party members and trade unions, all weather friends who stood with us. But it was Dunkirk, not D-Day. Eight out of ten of our neighbours, relatives, workmates did not vote for us. We have just 200 SDP Controlled Councils out of 3,600 in the South of England. We have a mountain to climb. A mountain of suspicion and mistrust from the public. A mountain of money that National has in their back pocket. A mountain of hard thinking about a world that is changing. This leadership election, the new members, the new councillors, shows something is stirring. Something inspiring. And I hope you will join me.” - David Miliband’s Victory Speech (2012)

Miliband went to work over the weeks following his election in a futile attempt to form a Government. Whilst his cup of tea with Michael Meacher had been cordial and friendly, the Alternative had been pushed to the edge and were unwilling to march their troops behind a Miliband Government. Reform refused to support any Government involving celtic separatists so any form of centrist Government with the SNP and Plaid was out of the question. William Hague was salivating at the chance to become Prime Minister, so a grand coalition like Alan Sugar had suggested was completely out of the question. After over a month of trying, Miliband was unable to form a government. Thus outgoing Prime Minister Alan Johnson went to see her Majesty, it was time for a snap election.

Miliband didn't get to spend a single night in Downing Street​

The Queen gave her blessing and the date was set. It was to be a winter election, with polling day on November the 20th 2012. After three years the ramshackle government of Alan Johnson had cobbled together with the Alternative and the SNP had finally come to an end. It had lasted longer than most of its critics had assumed, surviving a u-turn to austerity and even a military coup. But the wolves could only be kept at bay so long. The Alternative had been freed. Whilst Milband’s election had given the SDP a small boost, National were still nine points ahead at 35% to the SDP’s 26%. With third parties like the Alternative (11%) and Reform (9%) seeing record polling, it was to be the most volatile election yet.

“Official campaigning for Britain's general election begins Friday. The incumbent SDP faces a stiff challenge from three rivals in the tightest race in decades. Whilst the centre-right National are leading, with some polls showing that more than one in five potential voters are undecided, it is impossible to predict who will win. "These are the most volatile elections ever," YouGov's Jerry Latter told the Associated Press. As well as the two main parties, two other parties - the left-wing Alternative and centrist Reform - have gained traction in the polls. The four main party leaders set out their positions this week in an hour-long live interview each hosted by the BBC. David Miliband's Social Democratic Party has been worn down by austerity measures and the unemployment rate.” - Campaigning for volatile UK general election begins, Associated Press

A record number of UK residents reported plans to vote third party in polls

 

[Analytical Engine]

Is there any chance one or more of the minor parties could work with Hague?

 

[powerab]

Is there any chance one or more of the minor parties could work with Hague?

Reform, the SNP, the Northern Irish Liberals and rump Plaid have said they would be happy to work with either party. The Ulster Conservatives are the only minor party to openly support a National Government over an SDP one. Like most conservative parties under a PR system National benefit from having the right-wing vote locked down, but have few options for coalition partners.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Reform, the SNP, the Northern Irish Liberals and rump Plaid have said they would be happy to work with either party. The Ulster Conservatives are the only minor party to openly support a National Government over an SNP one. Like most conservative parties under a PR system National benefit from having the right-wing vote locked down, but have few options for coalition partners.

Then again, what is Hague willing to given them in exchange for support?

 

[SandroPertini98]

As aftermath of the austerity crisis Greece saw a grand coalition government, Italy saw a grand coalition government and Spain saw a grand coalition. I think exist a good deal of possibility that the vote produces a hung Parliament, forcing SNP, Nationals and Reform to form a government together, either with a coalition deal (as in Italy) or a minority support (as in Spain).

 

[Analytical Engine]

As aftermath of the austerity crisis Greece saw a grand coalition government, Italy saw a grand coalition government and Spain saw a grand coalition. I think exist a good deal of possibility that the vote produces a hung Parliament, forcing SNP, Nationals and Reform to form a government together, either with a coalition deal (as in Italy) or a minority support (as in Spain).

Britain hasn't had that kind of coalition since the pre-war National Government. It's not going to be easy to assemble, or keep together.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

Reform, the SNP, the Northern Irish Liberals and rump Plaid have said they would be happy to work with either party. The Ulster Conservatives are the only minor party to openly support a National Government over an SNP one. Like most conservative parties under a PR system National benefit from having the right-wing vote locked down, but have few options for coalition partners.

The SNP and Plaid willing to support the National? Yuck.

 

[powerab]

The SNP and Plaid willing to support the National? Yuck.

They're both essentially liberal/christian democratic parties now, with most social democratic/socialist nationalists in RISE or Forward Wales. However National is unlikely to give them a better devolution deal then they already have - so when push comes to shove most expect them to side with the SDP.

 

[Fenrisúlfr]

They're both essentially liberal/christian democratic parties now, with most social democratic/socialist nationalists in RISE or Forward Wales. However National is unlikely to give them a better devolution deal then they already have - so when push comes to shove most expect them to side with the SDP.

Yeah, I got that vibe from your writing so far but it's still disappointing. Within the context of the TL, massive support for Scottish self-determination, a less developed, less international and more conservative Scotland, it does seem very likely you'd have two pro-indy parties: one based around Scotland's mercantile class, the other based around Scotland's working class. It's just so disappointing to see such weak-willed libs in charge.

Nevermind, if the desire for Scottish self-determination stays strong ITTL, and I can't see why the factors in play would mean it doesn't, then either the SNP will achieve what the public wants or be replaced.

It's a shame about Burnham, he might have been able to somewhat salvage the coming disaster. David Milliband, of all the politicians I've met, is perhaps the one that epitomized the most the description 'more impressive on TV.'

 

[powerab]

Few rated Miliband's chances

“Britain's ruling socialist government is expected to fall - with polls predicting a victory for the National Party. Voters hit by sky-high unemployment, piles of debt and a bleak future say they will dump the SDP on Sunday and hand their national mess to the opposition. But National Leader William Hague will inherit a huge crisis as fears grow that Britain's yields on 10 year bonds rise towards the 7 per cent mark. A win for the 51-year-old, who has a decreasing popularity rating, would bring the conservatives back to power for the first time in eight years. It would see him taking over from Prime Minister Alan Johnson who has put a liberal social policy on the UK by legalizing gay marriage. But on economic matters Johnson has been criticised as first denying, then reacting late to the global financial crisis.” - UK's socialist government set to get the boot, Fox News Bulletin (2012)

Political pundits do love to categorise things, where declaring the 2012 snap election as the “bitter winter” or the “unemployment election”, the commenteriat were throwing dozens of names at the snap contest. All these names had one thing in common, a broad theme of cynicism and disappointment. After seven years of democracy and an accession to the EU, many British voters were feeling betrayed. Unemployment stood at 22% and millions were slipping back into poverty not seen for years. National were leading in the polls by around 9-10% in most polls, but their victory was more a “victory by default” a reflection of anger at the SDP, rather than a full-throated endorsement of National. Polls showed both Hague and Miliband as broadly unpopular and apathy at an all-time high.

The main beneficiaries of this anger at the establishment were Britain’s third parties. The Alternative had managed to wash-off much of the blood of the Johnson administration and were breaking double-digits in some polls. With both the SDP and National broadly supporting the austerity bailout agenda, and with no other left-wing options, the Alternative was really the only choice for anti-bailout voters. Meacher attempted to capture some of the anti-establishment magic of the outrage protests, promising his party would be a voice for the voiceless and downtrodden. This allowed the Alternative to both hold onto it’s young voters in the inner-city and reach out to small town eurosceptic voters through the Alternative’s opposition to the Troika.

Hague and Miliband both had negative approval ratings

Reform too benefited from the decline of the major parties, in particular the slow-motion implosion of the SDP. Reform was able to take advantage of middle-class liberal voters who had abandoned David Miliband, but couldn’t bring themselves to vote National. Reform had particularly surged in some parts of London during the local elections taking control of affluent South London boroughs like Richmond, Kingston and Lambeth, Reform would target London constituencies with a laser-focus, hoping to supplant the Alternative as the capital’s third largest party. Reform was also the only party making an unabashed pro-EU case in it’s campaign, with leader Sarah Brown arguing the two main parties had “surrendered” Britain’s seat at the EU table.

“The attribution of responsibility is especially important given the economic crisis. Citizens could blame – or exonerate – different parties for the situation. In the 2012 contest, those who voted for National and Reform were less likely to attribute responsibility for the economic situation to the EU. Voters for all parties – including the SA and RISE – tended to blame the SDP government for the economic situation. Differences in the determinants of voting were concentrated in a few variables. One of them was of course ideology. Voters of the SA, Reform and RISE were particularly dissatisfied with the workings of democracy. Those of Reform and SA also shared an intense lack of confidence towards politicians. The latter were especially active in their use of the internet, political blogs and social networks.” - The 2012 UK Election, Lecture by Christopher Kirkland, University of York (2013)

2012 would also be the UK’s first election with social media as a tangible battleground, whilst Twitter and Facebook had been around for the 2009 election, social media political campaigns were still in their infancy - now all major parties had dedicated social media teams working around the clock. The Outrage protests, organised via social media, had shown the political class how these platforms could be used for mass organisation. Whilst the smaller parties were having some success with viral Twitter adverts, as usual the main parties were slow and sluggish, struggling to keep up. For example William Hague’s follower count increased by a little over 5% over the course of the campaign, compared to Meacher’s whose follower total shot up by over a third during the first month of the election. In one viral gaffe Hague tweeted “"I just got up to 2.215 in #DoodleJump!” Later explaining his nephew had accidentally posted the message whilst playing on Hague’s phone.

National's social media posts would target their base, with little attempt to reach out towards undecided voters

Hague’s follower count fed into a large pattern of his campaign presence, described by one National MP as “ok - but not brilliant”, Hague had come into the election with high expectations, and whilst he performed well as the Commons Dispatch Box, he struggled to connect with ordinary voters. In one off the cuff speech in Blackpool Hague stuttered, saying “Britain… is full of British people” in a gaffe that was widely mocked on social media. Some within the party also worried that Hague’s campaign of targeting traditional working class SDP areas in the Midlands risked “overstretching” the campaign, especially as Reform was making inroads in National’s bougier heartlands.

Unionist parties were also rapidly losing ground in Scotland, the SNP was rebuilding their support, being able to claim at least some credit for Johnson’s downfall. Even the Marxist Workers Party of Scotland was tipped to win two or three seats in some polls. The biggest winners however were the RISE party, the poor devolution deal had allowed RISE to bounce back from death’s door. Alex Neil had only ever been an interim leader, having been the person to wield the knife against Tommy Sheridan, he had been replaced by Patrick Harvie, a 38 year old gay rights activist. Harvie’s assent had made him the first openly LGBT leader of any major UK political party, able to appeal to liberal SDP voters and hardcore nationalists, he had nearly doubled RISE’s standing in the poll. It was a pattern repeated in every periphery of British society: an army of smaller parties were chomping away at the big two.

“Britain’s small political parties are gaining support from disillusioned voters, an opinion poll showed on Sunday. If general elections were held today, the result would be the most fragmented since Britain’s return to democracy in 2005, the YouGov poll showed. Britain’s National Party would still beat its SDP rival in an election with 36% of the vote, down from the 42% it won in 2009. The SDP would win 29% of the vote, down from 41% in 2011. To govern the SDP would need a coalition with leftist party Socialist Alternative, for which support has doubled to 9%. Voters have grown disenchanted with the ruling SDP party, which has implemented austerity measures. Meanwhile, support for small centrist party Reform has grown, with it projected to capture 7% of the vote versus 3% percent in 2009.” - Voter support for UK’s small political parties grows, Reuters (2012)

The Outrage protests were still ongoing, feeding into anti-establishment feeling

 

[powerab]

Social Democrat tries to gain points in British election debate

By Reuters Staff Writer

Nov 8 (Reuters) - Britain’s SDP candidate for prime minister tried to paint his conservative rival as a threat to the welfare state in a televised debate on Monday.

Sky-high unemployment dominated the debate between William Hague, and David Miliband.

National's lead is so large, Miliband’s only hope in the debate was to generate fear over Hague’s economic plans to try to keep him from Downing Street.

“If you tell people the plans you have in your head, not even your own party members will vote for you,” said Miliband, attacking Hague on plans to cut spending.

Hague is expected to put in place deep austerity measures if he wins the election. He has promised to cut Britain’s public deficit as the euro zone crisis threatens to drag the country into needing further financial rescue.

In the debate Hague pledged not to freeze pensions but Miliband failed to draw him on where he would make cuts.

“The impact of the debate is going to be rather low. We didn’t see much new,” said Bart Cammaerts, head of the department of political communications at the London School of Economics.

“Miliband tried to put doubt in the National programme while Hague tried to show that the SDP administration has put Britain in crisis.”

Miliband, who stepped down as Justice Secretary to lead the SDP in the campaign, said if he won the election he would be cautious about spending cuts.

“Why didn’t you do it earlier... your tax on the rich?” countered Hague.

Miliband has struggled to differentiate himself from PM Alan Johnson after working in his government for seven years.

“There are seven million Brits who want to work and can’t,” Hague repeated several times in the debate, attacking the SDP for the economic crisis.

One in five British workers are jobless, the second highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

The face-to-face did not include smaller parties, such as the Alternative, and the format left little room for surprises.

Hague, has had several gaffes this campaign, although his strained campaign has benefited from the SDP mistakes.

Snap polls after the debate showed him as the debate winner. In a Comres poll for the BBC 46 percent said they saw Hague as the winner while 41 percent thought Miliband had won.

In interviews for state television, the editors of the UK’s three largest newspapers said they thought Hague had won the face-off.

Even so, some commentators criticised Hague for reading from his notes during the debate.

“A politician should be able to speak for three minutes without looking at his papers,” said professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary University.

Hague also failed to answer questions on social policy, despite the fact Miliband asked whether he would drop his opposition to gay marriage seven times.

"Hague has made it this far with only broad ideas, and the promise of change", Reuters's Keith Weir reports from London.

"With victory in sight, his task during the debate was to keep votes rather than try and win any more - he seems to have succeeded" he added

• Reuters 2009

 

[powerab]

Here is this year's iteration of the TL reader's poll. This time I'm using Strawpoll as it doesn't have an answer limit. Who would you vote for in the 2012 British General Election?

Please vote here

 

[Analytical Engine]

Done. I will look forwards to the final results.

 

[Sunstone77]

If the early results of the poll is any indication, it looks like the Socialist Alternative will be a big player in the next government.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Voted.

 

[Rillium]

If the early results of the poll is any indication, it looks like the Socialist Alternative will be a big player in the next government.

I remember last time SA won a large majority of the vote but it barely affected the actual results

 

[powerab]

If the early results of the poll is any indication, it looks like the Socialist Alternative will be a big player in the next government.

I remember last time SA won a large majority of the vote but it barely affected the actual results

Yes the poll is just a point of interest it has no impact on the story of the TL I'm afraid

 

[Sunstone77]

I remember last time SA won a large majority of the vote but it barely affected the actual results

Yes the poll is just a point of interest it has no impact on the story of the TL I'm afraid

I figured as much but my thinking was the results might impact some of the extra flavouring details. Like the planned story might be Hague wins but the winner of the poll would be their coalition partner or leading the criticism against whoever wins

 

[Rillium]

Yes the poll is just a point of interest it has no impact on the story of the TL I'm afraid

No worries. It could be interesting though to maybe have the poll influence certain details with the minor parties, like seat numbers and potential coalition partners like @Sunstone77 pointed out?