Johnson would enter the history books with a mixed record
“Britain's embattled prime minister announced Saturday he will not seek re-election in 2013. Alan Johnson told a meeting of party leaders he would limit his time in office to two terms, opening a process of primaries to elect his successor. Analysts say the SDP is almost certain to lose next year unless the troubled economy improves. He made the announcement ahead of local elections as a series of polls over the last year showed the centre-right National Party far in the lead. Johnson insisted in his speech that the austerity measures have stabilised Britain's economy. He then announced that he "will not be a candidate in the forthcoming general elections." He also said his decision is best for the country, his party and his family.” - Britain's embattled PM won't seek another term, CNN News Bulletin (2012)
Like a wounded lion the SDP stumbled on towards local elections, and the vultures began to circle. Incumbent parties traditionally took a beating at second tier elections, and with the protests, strike and being on the verge of a bailout, these elections would be brutal for the SDP. Johnson especially was incredibly unpopular, with an approval rating of minus 36 points; he was a dangerous millstone around the SDP’s neck. Whilst in the 2009 election Johnson had been more popular than the SDP brand, going into 2012 the situation had reversed. Johnson had managed to anger both sides of the political spectrum, pushing away the left with his austerity budget and the right with his socially liberal reforms.
The powerful Church of England were hoping for a National victory
After losing three of his most heavy hitting Cabinet Ministers, and with local elections looming, Johnson made an unprecedented announcement. In a speech outside Downing Street Johnson announced he would not lead the SDP into the next general election, due for 2013, and would look to make way for a fresher, younger face. The man who had led Britain into democracy, and held the ship steady for seven years, was bowing out with some form of grace left. In a country where political leaders would rule their citizens until death did them part, seeing a Prime Minister bow out of his own accord was completely unprecedented. To Johnson’s supporters he was free from the constraints of electoralism, now able to take the tough decisions to avoid a bailout. To his critics he was now a lame duck, leaving the country leaderless.
Rather than help the SDP’s chances, Johnson’s announcement proved a distraction for the party, talk quickly devolved into the runners and riders for party leadership. Senior Cabinet Ministers, including Rosie Boycott, Alan Sugar and Polly Toynbee, would engage in a bitter cold war on the campaign trail as they hoped to set out their stalls for party leadership. Senior MPs were quickly expected to choose sides as the party’s social democratic, progressive and neo-liberal wings all dug in for a protracted leadership battle - as the electorate watched on. Johnson had effectively thrown a hand grenade into the centre of his party.
“High unemployment and a stagnant economy will deal Britain's ruling SDP heavy losses in local elections. Polls show the SDP will lose Birmingham and Nottingham as well as their absolute majority in their Leeds stronghold. The centre-right opposition National Party may also win Newcastle in a close vote. The city has one of the UK’s highest jobless rates and has become a key electoral battleground. “We need a change, a change in the economy. We’ve got to grow in something besides construction,” said Anna Martin, a 25-year-old forensic psychology student from Preston. Anna says she has voted SDP before but on May 22 will vote for any party but. The UK slid into recession in 2008, as a housing bubble burst, destroying hundreds of thousands of construction jobs and piling up bad debt at banks.” -Britain's jobless voters could turn against Social Democrats, Sarah Morris, Reuters (2012)
Sugar was a highly divisive figure on the campaign trial
The main benefactor of Johnson falling on his sword would be National Leader William Hague. Hague had radically overhauled his top team to make the National Party look like a party of government, and himself look like a future Prime Minister. Shadow Cabinet members were banned from wearing military dress in public, only to wear crisp suits. Hague especially wanted to target the midlands, appearing at multiple campaign stops in Nottingham suburbs and Warwickshire villages. Hague hired a new head political strategist, former Obama staffer Jim Messina to coordinate the election campaign. Messenia would coin the term “Herefordshire Man” to describe the target demographic National was chasing, a lower middle class white man in small town Herefordshire, who was fed up with the SDP but had an emotional distrust of the National Party.
Reform also saw a surge in the polls during the local election campaign, especially targeting voters who had abandoned the SNP, but would never in their lives vote National. This included loyalist Scots and the upper-middle class in posh parts of cities like Bristol. Especially in rural councils where the SDP had absolutely no chance of winning, Reform was able to pitch itself as the only party able to stop National. Reform had before outperformed at a local level compared to its general election results so Brown, Rowling and others at the top of the party were eager for Reform to prove it could be a powerful political force, different from both the “economic irresponsibility” of the SDP and the “dangerous euroscepticism” of National.
On the night of the election, the result was even worse for the SDP than most had imagined. Johnson’s announcement had not stemmed the bleeding as the SDP lost thousands of seats in a record swing against the party. A plurality of lost seats were picked up by National whilst Reform and the Socialist Alternative were also able to pick up a few protesting SDP voters to the right and left. Interestingly the local elections also showed a sharp decline in the number of independent and residents association councillors. Analysts argued this was proof of British democracy maturing, political parties were better able to establish themselves, voters were now much happier to vote on national political issues and with national loyalties, rather than voting for Steve the pub landlord from the RA. It had been a nice, stable, partisan landslide against the SDP.
“The impact of the global economic crisis was felt well beyond the economic and financial realms. The crisis also had severe political consequences. Britain followed in the path of many other European countries that saw their governments suffer the wrath of their voters. The SDP was re-elected in a general election in 2009. Soon thereafter, economic conditions deteriorated and the government’s popularity declined . Between 2009 and 2012, there were several electoral contests in the UK at the local and regional level. One common pattern was the outcome: the defeat of the Social Democratic Party and the victory of the National Party. At local levels the SDP suffered historical losses, losing control of local governments that they ruled for years.” - The Economic Crisis in Britain 2008–2013, Lecture by Steve Coulter, LSE (2016)
Britain's working class had turned on the SDP