Brussels liked Johnson, but were suspicious of his potential coalition partners
“Pro-EU reformists are nosing ahead in the latest polls before Britain's election. This is a pivotal event that could consolidate Britain's EU entry, or aggravate the risk of renewed conflict in the heart of modern Europe. The pro-EU SDP scored 40% in a poll on Thursday, with National on 41% percent and the radical Socialist Alternative party of former paramilitaries on 6%. The EU's preferred scenario would see Johnson or Collins team up with either each other, or the smaller pro-EU Reform Party. The EU wants a clear majority in London's 497-seat parliament to steer the country toward a negotiated settlement on Scotland. Its worst case scenario could see the Social Democrats unite with radical leftists in the Alternative and RISE parties. This could embolden the Scottish provinces into a unilateral grab at independence.” - Pro-EU party trails polls in knife-edge British election, Andrew Rettman, EU Observer
Looking at the board, the 2009 election was all to play for, the financial crisis and various corruption scandals had given National an opportunity to breakthrough, but the party remained distrusted by many voters, especially in the cities. The Social Democrats had taken a battering but were still polling in the late 30s, Johnson remained a popular figure and the people’s preferred Prime Minister. Both parties had declined in the polls over the last few months and voters sought an alternative. One would think *the Alternative* would benefit from this situation, but their support for the SDP government and its budget had prevented them from capitalising on Johnson’s economic woes. North of the border, RISE’s polling had collapsed since the arrest of Tommy Sheridan so they were unlikely to pose a threat to the establishment.
There was a void, but no one seemed able to fill it. Johnson launched into an energetic campaign, banking on his own personal popularity and an optimistic campaign. The party’s slogan “Reasons to Believe” were plastered on posters with Johnson’s face up and down the country. Johnson also tacked to the centre in his campaign, hoping to quash the threat presented by the new Reform Party. Johnson pledged a stronger line against SNLA dissidents and an end to “separatist concessions” in the wake of Tommy Sheridan’s conviction. SDP strategists new Johnson’s perceived softness on Scottish separatism were unpopular with the nation’s unionist community, and the voters of small-town middle England, both of which he would need to win to hold onto Downing Street.
National took an economically conservative line in their campaign, centring their campaign on the financial crisis and its impact on working people. Collins promised to curtail the Social Democrats reckless spending, whilst ring-fencing essential services such as the military and the police. Collins did come under pressure for the ordering of his party lists - unlike the SDP or Alternative (where party members voted for their party lists at conference), National’s General Committee assigned party lists from the top-down, giving the leadership a great deal of control. The party’s moderate wing was outraged when the lists revealed several leading reformists had been moved down the list in favour of new politicians aligned to Collins.
The Colonel valued loyalty above all else
In South Yorkshire, Collin’s press director Jeremy Clarkson was placed at the top of the National list, above two incumbent MPs. Shadow Chancellor Nick Clegg, a National MP for South Yorkshire, was unceremoniously booted off the list entirely, despite the fact he was awaiting trial. Several Shadow Ministers weren’t placed at the top of their list in an unprecedented display, most notably Justice Secretary Ken Clarke was demoted to third on the Derbyshire list. Critics accused Collins of acting like a despot and using the list system to remove internal rivals. Some saw this as a sign Collins wasn’t confident in winning the election and hoped to secure the party for his chosen successor.
“The National selection process in 2009 rested upon a strong commitment to the party and Tim Collins personally. The process was also marked by an informality that tended to benefit privileged and well-connected men. A pamphlet published in 2010 by the National Reform Group argued that “A tap on the shoulder was all that was necessary to put someone on the list”. The party had in fact used a formal process to approve candidates. This process – which was based on Sandhurst’s army officer training procedure, focused on assessing candidates debating skills at the expense of other attributes. This prejudiced the process in favour of public school educated men. One study concluded that “institutionalised sexism” during selections was a particular problem. With National's poor polling among women voters in particular, calls for far-reaching reform grew louder.” - Candidate selection in the National Party, Institute for Government (2011)
Deputy Leader Theresa May had founded the National Women's Forum to promote women members of the party
Up in Scotland the SNP was working ruthlessly to consolidate the separatist vote. After Sheridan’s arrest RISE had been thrown into chaos and it’s polling had tanked. The new leader Alex Neil lacked either Sheridan’s charisma or the political loyalty Sheridan had inspired in radical separatists. The party was losing its social democratic voters to the SNP and it’s more radical votes to the Worker’s Party of Scotland, a splinter group set up by hardcore Sheridan allies. Swinney hoped to establish the SNP as the main party of Scottish nationalism, arguing if all of Scotland’s nationalists gave him their backing, they could send a strong message to Westminster and secure independence for the Scottish nation.
The defining event of the election came when Johnson made a campaign stop in his home region of Humberside, meeting with campaign staff at the party’s regional headquarters. Johnson stepped outside for a conversation with his Chief of Staff, David Lammy. Whilst he had been enjoying a mars bar, a bomb went off in the building. Being outside the building, Johnson was thrown off his feet and broke his arm, but wasn’t badly injured. Eight campaign staff were killed and dozens were injured. Civil Assistance claimed responsibility. For just a few moments Britain had felt like a normal democracy, having a normal election with normal politics. That illusion had been shattered.
Nonetheless the attack had boosted the SDP’s standing in the polls, and quashed any chance of the far-right new Nationalist Party making its way into Parliament. The City of Hull, where the attack took place, rallied around the victims, and all major parties announced a suspension of campaigning for 48 hours following the attack. Johnson, Collins and Meacher made a joint statement outside Hull City Hall, promising a kinder, gentler campaign, this included a commitment to end negative campaign adverts and further protections for campaign staff. Whilst the Hull bombing had been the most egregious form of violence, it wasn’t a lone act, violence had become a fact of life during the election, canvassers had dogs set on them, and different party volunteers had gotten into fights if they door-knocked the same streets. All three leaders disavowed political violence and their volunteers to do better, but it became increasingly clear no one was really in control.
“NNP Leader Godfrey Bloom, has been accused of advocating violence. Mr Bloom said that those who had no other way of expressing a legitimate grievance had a right to "hurt people, maim and blow things up". Mr Bloom is currently running as an NNP candidate for Humberside and the European Parliament. He added that people faced with a "tyrannical government" had a right, if not a duty, to "take up arms”. Mr Bloom made the comments in an interview, recorded by Diana Johnson, who is standing as an SDP candidate for the same seat. The NNP leader last night accused Ms Johnson of using "clipped and manipulated extracts" of the interview. In the footage, Mr Bloom said: "When people have a genuine grievance, if the state doesn't care, then what choice are people left but to do something which is outside the parliamentary system.” - NNP leader Godfrey Bloom accused of advocating violence, Tom Whitehead, The Guardian (2009)
After a quiet few months Civil Assistance had shot back into headlines