"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

Just want to remind everyone to vote Mebyon Kernow in the reader's poll. Voted SDP and now regret. Please vote Mebyon Kernow it is their last chance to gain a victory.
Everyone make sure you vote Centrist in the upcoming election.
Can you do some bits about COVID and the 2020 (presumably) local elections? I think they'd be a good point to stop at like where you did with the Commonwealth tl
Unfortunately the story will end just as covid begins

Like in a horror film where the monster's eyes snap open at the end
With a record turnout of 123 votes - praise be to the lurkers the results are in for our final reader's poll.

  • People's Alliance: 118 (-54)
  • Mebyon Kernow: 114 (+113)
  • Social Democratic Party: 93 (+25)
  • The Centrists: 52 (+9)
  • Green Left Movement: 28 (+28)
  • Sinn Fein: 24 (+19)
  • Plaid Cymru: 16 (+9)
  • National Party: 8 (-70)
  • RISE: 8 (-12)
  • Scottish National Party: 8 (-1)
  • Worker's Party of Scotland: 8 (+5)
  • Northern Irish Liberals: 8 (+7)
  • Unity: 4 (-73)
  • Forward Wales: 4 (-1)
  • Ulster Conservatives: 4 (+2)
"Fuck me" - Jeremy Vine's reaction to the exit poll, live on air

The Cornish revolution came out of nowhere, a mass write in campaign across the country led a party that only ran in won province winning 114 seats. Dick Cole scrambled to fill all the seats he had suddenly inherited, with less than 8,000 members random party Mebyon activists suddenly found themselves representing seats as far flung as Highland Scotland. The other major story of the night was the complete collapse of Unity and the National Party, with Britain's centre right falling to just twelve seats. The People's Alliance also suffered failing by 54 seats, mostly to other parties of the left like the Social Democrats and the Green Left Movement.

The most likely government would be a left wing one, with a right wing government statistically impossible. The centre left SDP and GLM would act as king makers. Sadiq Khan could either support a radical left federalist party in the form of the UPA, or a centrist separatist government led by Mebyon Kernow. Kernow could likely call on the support of other separatist parties to boost it's majority.

Final exit poll coming soon!
December 2019 Exit Poll

(Big Ben Chimes)



Jeremy Vine - Here we are again with the fourth BBC exit poll in four short years and again we are predicting a UPA victory on a greatly reduced majority - 129, down 43. National has increased their seats to 113, up 35. The Social Democrats on 81, up 13. The Centrists on 73, up 30. Unity on 36, down 41. RISE on 15, down 5. SNP on 15, up 6. Finally all other parties on 35. Well there you have it folks, if this exit poll is correct Bell gambled, and she’s lost. We now go over to Naga Munchetty for her analysis.

NM - Lyndon Johnson famously said the first rule of politics was to learn how to count, and the poll volunteers in town halls across the country have done a lot of counting! This is a big result, the People’s Alliance are still on top but with a deeply reduced caucus, instead of crushing the National Party, the Tories have actually rebounded somewhat. Now instead of being the only viable option for Prime Minister, Ms Ribeiro-Addy has opened the door for a right wing government.

JV - Yes, very bad news for the Alliance, National is within touching distance, and the Social Democrats - against the odds - have actually gone up. It’ll be hard to refuse Sadiq Khan’s calls for a formal coalition now the electorate have given him a mandate. A devastating night for Unity, it wasn’t long ago they were running posters with Alan Sugar as “the next Prime Minister” - now they are the weakest of the federal parties - in any talks with the other parties Unity will be at the back of the queue.

NM - The great coalition puzzle is even more complicated than it was in May, none of the issues this election was supposed to fix have been resolved. Even with the Social Democrats on board the People’s Alliance is still forty seats away from a majority. As I see it Bell has three options, a rainbow coalition of every tiny regional party, reaching out to the party’s of the right - or a fifth election. None of these options are very tempting.

JV - Yes will the UPA reach out to the recently vanquished Unity? Politicos may remember that the Greek Syriza Government went into coalition with the right-wing ANEL party so there is a precedent. Or she could even reach out to Colonel Tom for a grand coalition? With the violence in Scotland extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

NM - If Ms Ribeiro-Addy does enter Downing Street her reduced majority means the parties of the right will make her life a living hell. We’re looking at over 70 openly Mountbattenite MPs in the Commons now - I doubt they’ll be very helpful in removing the First Lord from Westminster Abbey, or relaxing abortion laws. Mr Cleverly is in a very strong position now - whenever a right-wing government was discussed the Centrists were always expected to be confidence vote partners, rather than full coalition members - but with such a strong result Cleverly has a mandate to demand Cabinet posts.

JV - It is interesting to note the Green Left Movement haven’t made it into our exit poll, we usually only include parties with ten seats or more due to margin of error issues. This means the GLM failed to break through the way some expected. It looks like Paul Mason’s new party had only hopped that electoral hurdle in one or two provinces - or maybe none at all! The GLM’s lasting legacy might be that it destroyed its mother party.

NM - Yes the Green Left was one of a thousand cuts the People’s Alliance suffered in this campaign - whether it was Owen Jones’ internal power plays, or the Socialist Alternative threatening to pull out of the Alliance - the main image the UPA has given to the voters is a party in disarray. But its biggest issue has been a decreased turnout, many younger UPA voters simply didn’t come out this time. They had voted in their droves in May with the goal of changing history and instead changed nothing.

JV - Yes my producers are telling me turnout fell by over 15% if our exit poll is correct, if not voting was a political party, they would have the biggest swing of tonight - assuming the majority of those staying at home tonight were People's Alliance voters, that apathy might have cost them the election.

NM - Yes lots of questions to be asked at the top of the People’s Alliance. It looks like Bell has one shot to get into Downing Street, I’m not sure if the coalition she built could survive another election, sources on the ground report a thoroughly exhausted and demoralised activist base. For the UPA the next few months will be do or die.

JV - Do or die indeed, Naga Munchetty thank you very much. I’m now joined by Mark Francois; he was the campaign coordinator for the Centrists. Ok Mr Francois name your price, an EU referendum? A Trump-style Muslim ban? What does Tom Tugendhat need to offer you to get you in the tent?
instead of crushing the National Party, the Tories have actually rebounded somewhat.
Typo or did the nickname for the old Conservative carry over to National?

How are the old pre junta political parties regarded in modern times and were there ever any serious attempts to resurrect any of them after the transition back to democracy?
Typo or did the nickname for the old Conservative carry over to National?

How are the old pre junta political parties regarded in modern times and were there ever any serious attempts to resurrect any of them after the transition back to democracy?
Tories is a colloquial name for National, but it's much less commonly used than OTL.

There was never any attempts to revive the old pre-Junta parties, after 40 years no one really had huge enthusiasm for 60s political brands.

After the transition some people set up revived rump Conservative and Labour parties, but they have very little support - like the continuity Liberals/SDP in OTL
*This assumes the exit poll is completely right, which is very unlikely.

December 2019 Exit Poll potential coalitions
There are 497 seats in the HOC, 249 are needed for a majority.
Left: UPA-SDP-RISE: 225 (or more), 24 seats away from a majority
The coalition could work if it had a majority - it works well in policy and after the second election in a year parties would be more eager to form more unstable governments due to the political ramifications of a third election. However, this coalition does not have a majority, so it would likely require other parties to join it to give it a majority. However, the Green Left Alliance and other separatist parties joining the agreement could give it a majority, but a very slim one.
Centre-Left: UPA-SDP-Unity-SNP/RISE: 261, 12 seat majority
With most parties likely not wanting a third election, a coalition like this could be possible. The UPA would have to make lots of concessions to Unity to go into the coalition, and the UPA could just refuse the agreement and could split the party further or cause a third election potentially destroying the party. The SNP or RISE (IMO the SNP is more likely) would give the agreement a majority so this is a potential route for the UPA to enter government, but an unstable one.

Centrist Unity: National-Unity-SDP-SNP: 245, 4 seats away from a majority
The coalition would find it hard to work together in terms of policy, and would in general find it very hard to work together. Even with the SNP, the coalition also doesn't have a majority, although it is close to one. Even if it did have a majority and if some other parties joined it there would likely be lots of rebels which could bring it down, especially in the SDP which used to be National's main competitors.
Right: National-Unity-Centrist: 222, 27 seats away from a majority
The coalition could potentially work if it had a majority - National and the Centrists could find some common ground and Unity being halved could make it more agreeable to such a coalition, especially with it shifting to the right. However the coalition doesn't have a majority and there aren't many other parties that could go into this coalition
Anti-Socialist: National-Unity-Centrist-SDP: 303, 54 seat majority
The coalition does have a majority unlike most of the others, however the SDP aren't likely to work with the Centrists, and the party would likely be destroyed if they tried to go with them.
Grand Coalition: UPA-National: 242, 7 seats away from a majority
Yes, grand coalitions have existed in countries before but the UPA and National are far too different to really work together. This would have only worked when the SDP was second party and even then would have been very conflicting. The only reason why I added this was because it was mentioned in the exit poll. The SDP or Unity joining the coalition could help stabilise it but in the end the agreement can't really work.

Conclusion: Left or Centre-Left are the only coalitions that could work, Left maybe giving a majority and Centre-Left being generally unstable. Forming a government will be very hard and will likely require lots of negotiations and tough deals for it to work, and in the end I don't really know what one will happen (apparently the TL ends with this election so there hopefully won't be a third one). In the end Bell made a massive mistake by not going into government with the SDP in May, and will struggle to get into government now.
Keep in the mind that a few seat changes could make this thing completely invalid, so don't trust this completely (or at all)
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