"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
2019 Reader's Poll Results
The readers poll had our highest turnout yet at 105 voters, here's what the result would be if it was up to you lot:
This would be a complete disaster for National, losing 75% of their MPs and being relegated to forth place. Unity would also have a hard time of it, losing half their MPs. The main beneficiary of this right wing collapse would be the Centrists, who would leapfrog the other two parties to be the main force of the British right. Other big winners of the night would be the UPA, surging into a clear pole position. RISE would also dominate politics in Scotland, somehow winning all 43 Scottish seats.
The most likely result from this would be a UPA minority government, supported by a rainbow coalition of nationalist parties. Another option could be the establishment closing ranks, with the SDP, National, Unity and moderate seperatists all coming together to keep the radical left out of power.
Real result coming soon!
- United People Alliance: 163 (+60)
- Social Democratic Party: 95 (-6)
- Centrists: 47 (+46)
- National Party: 43 (-136)
- RISE: 43 (+29)
- Unity: 33 (-30)
- Plaid Cymru: 19 (+14)
- Worker's Party of Scotland: 14 (+13)
- Sinn Fein: 14 (+10)
- Mebyon Kernow: 14 (+13)
- Scottish National Party: 4 (-5)
- Ulster Conservative: 4 (+2)
- Northern Irish Liberals: 4 (+2)
This would be a complete disaster for National, losing 75% of their MPs and being relegated to forth place. Unity would also have a hard time of it, losing half their MPs. The main beneficiary of this right wing collapse would be the Centrists, who would leapfrog the other two parties to be the main force of the British right. Other big winners of the night would be the UPA, surging into a clear pole position. RISE would also dominate politics in Scotland, somehow winning all 43 Scottish seats.
The most likely result from this would be a UPA minority government, supported by a rainbow coalition of nationalist parties. Another option could be the establishment closing ranks, with the SDP, National, Unity and moderate seperatists all coming together to keep the radical left out of power.
Real result coming soon!
Are people voting without actually reading the TL and understanding who the Centrists are? I have a tough time imagining any slice of AH.com's readership favoring the far-right over mainstream conservative parties.
mortonofski
Donor
Don't blame me, I voted for Mebyon Kernow! (Who according to this poll would receive more than double the seats in TTL than there are actual seats available in Cornwall in OTL's larger House...)
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I think they know. I'd guess they vote on the way they want the tl to go, as opposed to their actual views. Unless we've been infiltrated.
Hm, was @powerab aware of the inner works of the Tories when he wrote the National election?
www.theguardian.com
Tom Tugendhat hints at future bid to be Conservative leader
Foreign affairs committee chair tells party it should drop focus on ‘divisive politics’ and says he is ambitious for himself
www.theguardian.com
If it's like every other AH.com thread, it's RL that tries to imitate us, not the other way around.Hm, was @powerab aware of the inner works of the Tories when he wrote the National election?
Tom Tugendhat hints at future bid to be Conservative leader
Foreign affairs committee chair tells party it should drop focus on ‘divisive politics’ and says he is ambitious for himself
As an outsider, I think I have decent knowledge of British politics for one. But @powerab has some really great knowledge, especially as a candidate for local elections. Personally, I believe he should be a sitting MP. Labour needs everything at their disposal.Hm, was @powerab aware of the inner works of the Tories when he wrote the National election?
Tom Tugendhat hints at future bid to be Conservative leader
Foreign affairs committee chair tells party it should drop focus on ‘divisive politics’ and says he is ambitious for himself
2019 Exit Poll
(Big Ben Chimes)
UNITED PEOPLE ALLIANCE WIN
FORECAST UPA LARGEST PARTY IN HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 165 SEATS
Jeremy Vine - Our exit poll is suggesting the UPA will win the first round when all the votes are counted. According to our exit poll, the People’s Alliance is on 165, up 62. National on 85, down 94. Unity on 75, up 12. The Social Democrats on 67, down 34. The Centrists on 45, up 44. RISE on 22, up eight. Finally the SNP on 10, up one.
Naga Munchetty - 80 is the magic number tonight Jeremy, this poll shows an 80 seat lead for the People’s Alliance over it’s nearest opposition, but still 80 seats away from a majority. The battle for second place is very close, just ten seats between National and Unity.
JV - Well this has been a very turbulent few years and we have seen a brand new federal party enter Parliament in force thanks to the Centrists. Britain is now split in five different directions, from Bell Ribeiro-Addy all the way over to James Cleverly.
NM - From this result it looks like this election will be decided by Sadiq Khan. To form a majority the UPA is dependent on the Social Democrats playing ball - but some in the party have called for a centrist coalition with Unity and National. Mr Khan can give Bell Ribeiro-Addy the keys to Downing Street, or he can lock her out of power. Many in the SDP remember in summer 2016, where the UPA refused to go into coalition with Andy Burnham, many Social Democrats blame that decision for the misfortune that’s fallen on their party - they will be wanting revenge!
JV - If the People’s Alliance can form a government it will be a historic moment, Britain would be the second ever European country to elect a radical left government since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Several leading businesses have threatened to pull out of the country should the socialists enter Government - we may soon find out if they’re bluffing or not.
NM - A disastrous night for National - over half their MPs gone in the blink of an eye, Jeremy Clarkson’s friends must be laughing at Tugendhat’s demise. Many in the party will want him gone, but can’t move against him until a new government is in place - in case of snap elections they can’t afford a leadership election. If this exit poll is anyway right - the phrase lame duck comes to mind
JV - Mixed night for Unity as well, despite National’s troubles they’ve only gone up slightly, and don’t seem to have overtaken National as Britain's second party. Sugar had hoped to wake up tomorrow Prime Minister, but that seems unlikely. Sugar had moved his party sharply to the right over the last few months, banking on overtaking National as the main party of the centre-right, that strategy hasn't paid the dividends he'd hoped for,
NM - Yes, a second election seems a district possibility, even if Bell can get the Social Democrats on side, she’ll still probably need the Scottish separatists in her camp as well. Such a coalition would be a nightmare scenario for Britain's conservatives. Not to mention many in the SDP would refuse to sit round a table with RISE. SDP Scotland leader Anas Sarwar has even discussed pulling his MPs out of the federal Social Democrats to form a new centre-left unionist party in Scotland.
JV - Either way history will be made tonight, we now have with us Dr Faiza Shaheen, Shadow Environment Secretary for the UPA. Dr Shaheen you’re so close yet so far from Government - are you happy with this result?
*This assumes the exit poll is completely right, which is very unlikely.
2019 Exit Poll potential coalitions
There are 497 seats in the HOC, 249 are needed for a majority.
Left: UPA-SDP-RISE: 254, 5 seat majority
This coalition could work well from a policy perspective, however lots in the SDP could be unhappy with it going into a coalition with the UPA, and going with RISE would also be a bad look for the UPA, especially after the Scottish crisis. Could see defectors from the SDP which could bring down the coalition's already slim majority and stop it from actually happening. Nevertheless it is the only way for the UPA to go into government. Seats from smaller separatist parties not included in the exit poll and the SNP could also help boost it's majority.
Centrist Unity: National-Unity-SDP: 227, 22 seats away from a majority
In terms of policy this coalition would be an absolute mess, with all parties, especially the SDP, having different platforms and being reluctant to support each other. Going into a coalition with National would also anger lots of people in the SDP due to National being their traditional rival. Not to mention the fact that the coalition also wouldn't have a majority.
Right: National-Unity-Centrist: 205, 44 seats away from a majority
In terms of policy National and the Centrists have worked together before in Essex. National has also been in government with Unity. However, Unity would most likely refuse to go with the Centrists and National trying to ally with them would bring it lots of backlash and wouldn't help Tugendhat with him being elected as party leader as a reformist. The coalition also would be far from a majority making it unworkable.
Anti-Socialist: National-Unity-Centrist-SDP: 272, 23 seat majority
This coalition would get a majority but would naturally not work due to the SDP obviously not wanting to work with the Centrists alongside reasons mentioned before.
Conclusion: The Left coalition is the only one that could potentially work. However conservative backlash and the SDP being not likely to work with separatists could ruin the coalition and even if it was agreed by the leaderships and put to a vote SDP defections could destroy it. This also assumes the exit poll being completely right, so all this could prove redundant by a few seats changing.
2019 Exit Poll potential coalitions
There are 497 seats in the HOC, 249 are needed for a majority.
Left: UPA-SDP-RISE: 254, 5 seat majority
This coalition could work well from a policy perspective, however lots in the SDP could be unhappy with it going into a coalition with the UPA, and going with RISE would also be a bad look for the UPA, especially after the Scottish crisis. Could see defectors from the SDP which could bring down the coalition's already slim majority and stop it from actually happening. Nevertheless it is the only way for the UPA to go into government. Seats from smaller separatist parties not included in the exit poll and the SNP could also help boost it's majority.
Centrist Unity: National-Unity-SDP: 227, 22 seats away from a majority
In terms of policy this coalition would be an absolute mess, with all parties, especially the SDP, having different platforms and being reluctant to support each other. Going into a coalition with National would also anger lots of people in the SDP due to National being their traditional rival. Not to mention the fact that the coalition also wouldn't have a majority.
Right: National-Unity-Centrist: 205, 44 seats away from a majority
In terms of policy National and the Centrists have worked together before in Essex. National has also been in government with Unity. However, Unity would most likely refuse to go with the Centrists and National trying to ally with them would bring it lots of backlash and wouldn't help Tugendhat with him being elected as party leader as a reformist. The coalition also would be far from a majority making it unworkable.
Anti-Socialist: National-Unity-Centrist-SDP: 272, 23 seat majority
This coalition would get a majority but would naturally not work due to the SDP obviously not wanting to work with the Centrists alongside reasons mentioned before.
Conclusion: The Left coalition is the only one that could potentially work. However conservative backlash and the SDP being not likely to work with separatists could ruin the coalition and even if it was agreed by the leaderships and put to a vote SDP defections could destroy it. This also assumes the exit poll being completely right, so all this could prove redundant by a few seats changing.
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Well the UPA and SDP alone would have 232 seats, so it's possible for the remaining 17 to be made up by Ecology, and Welsh, Northern Irish and even Cornish nationalist parties who would trade support for devolution.
And as controversial as Scotland has been, a Welsh parliament with a written in 'no independence' clause would probably be acceptable to SDP unionists.
If you click on the image once embedded into the post a little drop down box comes up where you can align it to the left or right, allowing text to wrap. 😁
Chapter 108: Parliamentary Privilege
Author's Note: Sorry some of the wikibox colours have gone a bit weird, not sure why
Britain's youth had turned out to vote in record numbers
“The UPA won the most votes but fell short of a majority in Sunday’s snap general election, a contest marked by the breakthrough of the Centrists. The People's Alliance won 172 seats, National 78, Unity 77, the Social Democratic Party 68, and the Centrists 43. Despite it being Britain's third general election in under four years, turnout was 76% – well up on the 59% three years ago. Ribeiro-Addy hailed the result and the high turnout as proof of Britain's desire to move forward and reject reactionary policies. “You Wrote History” she told supporters in London, echoing the Alliance's campaign slogan. “We’ve sent out the message that we don’t want to regress or reverse. We want a country that looks forwards and moves forward.” But, the UPA will still need to seek the support of other parties to reach the 249 seats necessary to form a government.” - People’s Alliance Win Amid Gains for Centrists, Sam Jones, The Guardian (2019)
For the second time ever in modern Europe a radical left party had topped the polls, with 13 million votes and a hundred more seats then the next nearest opposition the election was undoubtedly a great victory for the People’s Alliance. For National the result was a disaster with Nadhim Zahawi, Penny Morduant and even Theresa May all losing their seats in the House of Commons. On a local level, National lost control of all but seven provinces, including major strongholds like Dorset, Essex and East Anglia. In some provinces the party had been whipped out entirely. Whilst National had never been popular in Merseyside, Greater Manchester or Inner East London - they had all elected a Tory or two- now all three provinces didn’t have a single National MP. All in all the party lost nearly eight million votes, the bulk of which went to the Centrists.
The Centrist’s surge - under their “Alliance of Centrists” with other far-right parties, represented the first time ever the far-right had gathered enough MPs to form a Parliamentary group, with all the funding and prestige that brought. Those who had declared Britain immune from the right-wing populist wave were now silenced as proud Mountbattenites entered the Commons chamber. But the Centrists were a strange coalition, whilst it’s older MPs wore military uniforms, younger MPs wore MAGA hats and posted racist memes onto social media. Youtube conspiracy theorists and street thugs stood with former National hardliners in a colourful caucus.
UPA staffers feared a capital flight
Still the biggest story was the People’s Alliance victory, with 172 seats they had surpassed even the exit poll as the unquestioned winner of the election. In a speech in London Bell Ribeiro-Addy told her supporters they “wrote history” by “showing a mandate against cuts and against fear”. Still, Bell wanted to calm international markets and potential coalition partners, telling journalists she wanted to “negotiate, not destroy” Britain’s bailout agreement. The panic in Brussels was immediate as the Troika prepared for the Brits to default on their bailout arrangement. The Germans especially were keen to stress that any government must respect “"the rules of monetary union". The euro went into freefall, falling to 1.11 euro to the dollar, the lowest level in the currency’s history.
“Mirroring British society, the People's Alliance is pro-European. The party supports EU membership and advocates a reformed eurozone. Its leaders come from a generation which enjoyed the benefits of accession to the Union. May senior MPs fear the impact of a hostile relationship with Brussels. In their call for reform, the UPA’ leaders are unlikely to follow Syriza’s confrontational strategy with the EU. Over time, the party’s economic programme has become more mainstream, very much in line with traditional social democracy. The UPA advocates reforming the ECB, restructuring the Euro and reconsidering austerity policies. The SDP included very similar ideas in their programme for the 2014 European Parliament elections. But, the People's Alliance has been more vocal about the need for reform.” - Why the People’s Alliance is not Syriza, Lecture by Camino Mortera-Martinez, Centre for European Reform (2019)
A smaller, but still important consequence of the elections was the result of MEP ballots, held the same day. Patrick Harvie, Keith Brown and several other imprisoned or exiled seperatist legislators had been elected to the European Parliament. As MEPs the politicians would be granted parliamentary privilege, giving them legal immunity to any prosecution for the events of 2018. This caused a particular headache for the UPA as questions around pardons were shot to the forefront of political debate, if Patrick Harvie MEP returned to Glasgow, would the Government arrest him? And how would the EU react? Acting against Harvie would set a dangerous precedent.
Harvie's newfound freedom could spark a leadership crisis in RISE
Now talk inevitably moved to forming a government, a broad left bloc of UPA and Social Democrats held 240 seats, within touching distance of a majority. But to get over the line they would still need a handful of seats, most likely coming from RISE and other seperatist parties. This would prove difficult for the Social Democrats, who had been just as harsh as the other major parties during the Scottish seperatist process and were eager to not be seen too close to Alex Neil and Patrick Harvie. Even within the People’s Alliance there was some disquiet at working with a party with half its leadership in prison, a growing group of reformists led by figures such as Paul Mason and Laura Parker were calling on the party to take a more moderate approach to the constitutional question and even work with Unity.
Any potential to form a right wing government were likely dead on arrival. To form such a Government would require the three “establishment parties” working together, with the support of the Centrists. However this was unlikely, especially with the proudly Muslim Khan leading the Social Democrats - and the outspoken Islamaphobia of the Centrists. For the political right the goal was not to form a government, but to cause as much disruption as possible, to prevent a left-wing coalition and force another snap election. Unity categorically refused to even abstain on a UPA Government, meaning Bell Ribeiro-Addy had to either enter Downing Street with RISE, or not at all - let the games begin.
“Bell Ribeiro-Addy and her People's Party won Britain’s national elections last week. If only it were that easy. Nothing now is straightforward in British politics, where winning is relative in a polarised landscape. The leftists secured the most seats in Parliament, but fell short of a majority. So now Ms Ribeiro-Addy must turn in earnest to the challenge of assembling a governing coalition. If she fails, Brits will face the prospect of another election — the fourth since late 2015. Her task will not be easy. Opening feelers have already led to bitter and often personal feuding, and Ms Ribeiro-Addy must rely on smaller parties. Ms Ribeiro-Addy's strong result was seen as a victory for Socialism in Europe. It also came as a shock to the EU, at a time when the bloc is embattled by challenges from nationalists and populists, especially in Italy.” - Ribeiro-Addy Struggles to Assemble New Government in UK, Raphael Minder, New York Times (2019)
Several leading UPA members held close relationships with Syriza
Britain's youth had turned out to vote in record numbers
“The UPA won the most votes but fell short of a majority in Sunday’s snap general election, a contest marked by the breakthrough of the Centrists. The People's Alliance won 172 seats, National 78, Unity 77, the Social Democratic Party 68, and the Centrists 43. Despite it being Britain's third general election in under four years, turnout was 76% – well up on the 59% three years ago. Ribeiro-Addy hailed the result and the high turnout as proof of Britain's desire to move forward and reject reactionary policies. “You Wrote History” she told supporters in London, echoing the Alliance's campaign slogan. “We’ve sent out the message that we don’t want to regress or reverse. We want a country that looks forwards and moves forward.” But, the UPA will still need to seek the support of other parties to reach the 249 seats necessary to form a government.” - People’s Alliance Win Amid Gains for Centrists, Sam Jones, The Guardian (2019)
For the second time ever in modern Europe a radical left party had topped the polls, with 13 million votes and a hundred more seats then the next nearest opposition the election was undoubtedly a great victory for the People’s Alliance. For National the result was a disaster with Nadhim Zahawi, Penny Morduant and even Theresa May all losing their seats in the House of Commons. On a local level, National lost control of all but seven provinces, including major strongholds like Dorset, Essex and East Anglia. In some provinces the party had been whipped out entirely. Whilst National had never been popular in Merseyside, Greater Manchester or Inner East London - they had all elected a Tory or two- now all three provinces didn’t have a single National MP. All in all the party lost nearly eight million votes, the bulk of which went to the Centrists.
The Centrist’s surge - under their “Alliance of Centrists” with other far-right parties, represented the first time ever the far-right had gathered enough MPs to form a Parliamentary group, with all the funding and prestige that brought. Those who had declared Britain immune from the right-wing populist wave were now silenced as proud Mountbattenites entered the Commons chamber. But the Centrists were a strange coalition, whilst it’s older MPs wore military uniforms, younger MPs wore MAGA hats and posted racist memes onto social media. Youtube conspiracy theorists and street thugs stood with former National hardliners in a colourful caucus.
UPA staffers feared a capital flight
Still the biggest story was the People’s Alliance victory, with 172 seats they had surpassed even the exit poll as the unquestioned winner of the election. In a speech in London Bell Ribeiro-Addy told her supporters they “wrote history” by “showing a mandate against cuts and against fear”. Still, Bell wanted to calm international markets and potential coalition partners, telling journalists she wanted to “negotiate, not destroy” Britain’s bailout agreement. The panic in Brussels was immediate as the Troika prepared for the Brits to default on their bailout arrangement. The Germans especially were keen to stress that any government must respect “"the rules of monetary union". The euro went into freefall, falling to 1.11 euro to the dollar, the lowest level in the currency’s history.
“Mirroring British society, the People's Alliance is pro-European. The party supports EU membership and advocates a reformed eurozone. Its leaders come from a generation which enjoyed the benefits of accession to the Union. May senior MPs fear the impact of a hostile relationship with Brussels. In their call for reform, the UPA’ leaders are unlikely to follow Syriza’s confrontational strategy with the EU. Over time, the party’s economic programme has become more mainstream, very much in line with traditional social democracy. The UPA advocates reforming the ECB, restructuring the Euro and reconsidering austerity policies. The SDP included very similar ideas in their programme for the 2014 European Parliament elections. But, the People's Alliance has been more vocal about the need for reform.” - Why the People’s Alliance is not Syriza, Lecture by Camino Mortera-Martinez, Centre for European Reform (2019)
A smaller, but still important consequence of the elections was the result of MEP ballots, held the same day. Patrick Harvie, Keith Brown and several other imprisoned or exiled seperatist legislators had been elected to the European Parliament. As MEPs the politicians would be granted parliamentary privilege, giving them legal immunity to any prosecution for the events of 2018. This caused a particular headache for the UPA as questions around pardons were shot to the forefront of political debate, if Patrick Harvie MEP returned to Glasgow, would the Government arrest him? And how would the EU react? Acting against Harvie would set a dangerous precedent.
Harvie's newfound freedom could spark a leadership crisis in RISE
Now talk inevitably moved to forming a government, a broad left bloc of UPA and Social Democrats held 240 seats, within touching distance of a majority. But to get over the line they would still need a handful of seats, most likely coming from RISE and other seperatist parties. This would prove difficult for the Social Democrats, who had been just as harsh as the other major parties during the Scottish seperatist process and were eager to not be seen too close to Alex Neil and Patrick Harvie. Even within the People’s Alliance there was some disquiet at working with a party with half its leadership in prison, a growing group of reformists led by figures such as Paul Mason and Laura Parker were calling on the party to take a more moderate approach to the constitutional question and even work with Unity.
Any potential to form a right wing government were likely dead on arrival. To form such a Government would require the three “establishment parties” working together, with the support of the Centrists. However this was unlikely, especially with the proudly Muslim Khan leading the Social Democrats - and the outspoken Islamaphobia of the Centrists. For the political right the goal was not to form a government, but to cause as much disruption as possible, to prevent a left-wing coalition and force another snap election. Unity categorically refused to even abstain on a UPA Government, meaning Bell Ribeiro-Addy had to either enter Downing Street with RISE, or not at all - let the games begin.
“Bell Ribeiro-Addy and her People's Party won Britain’s national elections last week. If only it were that easy. Nothing now is straightforward in British politics, where winning is relative in a polarised landscape. The leftists secured the most seats in Parliament, but fell short of a majority. So now Ms Ribeiro-Addy must turn in earnest to the challenge of assembling a governing coalition. If she fails, Brits will face the prospect of another election — the fourth since late 2015. Her task will not be easy. Opening feelers have already led to bitter and often personal feuding, and Ms Ribeiro-Addy must rely on smaller parties. Ms Ribeiro-Addy's strong result was seen as a victory for Socialism in Europe. It also came as a shock to the EU, at a time when the bloc is embattled by challenges from nationalists and populists, especially in Italy.” - Ribeiro-Addy Struggles to Assemble New Government in UK, Raphael Minder, New York Times (2019)
Several leading UPA members held close relationships with Syriza
2019 Election Detailed Results
House of Commons
- United People's Alliance: 172 (+69)
- National Party: 78 (-101)
- Unity: 77 (+14)
- Social Democratic Party: 68 (-33)
- Centrists: 43 (+42)
- RISE: 20 (+6)
- Scottish National Party: 9 (-)
- Plaid Cymru: 7 (+2)
- Ecology Party 6 (-)
- Forward Wales: 5 (+1)
- Worker's Party of Scotland: 3 (+2)
- Sinn Fein: 5 (+2)
- Ulster Conservatives: 2 (-)
- Social Democratic and Labour Party: 2 (-)
- Northern Irish Liberals (0.21%): 1 (-)
- Mebyon Kernow (0.21%): 1 (-)
- People’s Alliance: 23 (+15)
- National Party: 14 (-9)
- Unity: 13 (+8)
- Social Democratic Party: 10 (-10)
- Centrists: 5 (+4)
- Alliance of Nationalists and Republicans: 5 (+2)
- RISE: 3
- Forward Wales: 1
- Sinn Fein: 1
- European Free Alliance: 2 (-2)
- Scottish National Party: 1
- Plaid Cymru: 1
- Ecology: 1 (-)
- Worker's Party of Scotland: 1 (+1)