Chapter 94: A Question of Perspective
Despite a pro-referendum majority, Unity had the biggest gains of the night
“Despite a victory for pro-referendum parties the loyalist Unity Party performed well, winning 17 seats in the Scottish parliament. That would make it the second-strongest force. “Today we avoided the rupture of our country,” Alan Sugar, the nationwide leader of Unity, said after the Scottish vote. “Now let us regenerate the UK.” Of the other loyalist parties, Hague's National Party won a disappointing 9 seats — and the SDP got 12 seats. The far-left group United People Alliance, which included the People's Party, took 13 seats. During the campaign, it avoided taking a clear stance on the independence issue, but on Sunday night its Leader Mhairi Black, appeared to be more open to cooperation with the secessionist movement.” - Unity party scores high in Scottish Elections, Hans von der Burchard, Politico.eu (2017)
The Scottish results were a question of perspective. Was RISE’s goal to win a pro-referendum Parliament, in that case they achieved it with 57 of the 95 MSPs in favour of an independence referendum, at least on paper. However a majority for unilateralism was more elusive, with 42 MSPs coming from unilateralist parties, RISE, the SNP and the WPS. The other six MSPs would need to come from those not necessarily against a referendum but had doubts about unilateralism, Scottish nationalism, or both. All camps had reasons to be cheerful, with RISE maintaining the largest party space, and a pro-referendum majority, whilst Unity had seen the biggest increase in votes and prevented a unilateralist majority.
Turnout was the most noticeable thing about the election results, with turnout up nearly 10% from the last election, if first time voters had been a party they would have claimed the largest swing of the night. The biggest beneficiaries of this surge in turnout was Unity, who profited from apathetic status-quo unionist votes who just wanted to prevent a referendum, and the UPA who’s populist messaging on economics and federalist message on the constitution enabled them to reach across communities and turnout frustrated first time voters, especially the young - who wanted any resolution to the constitutional issue. Both these parties benefited from being outside the traditional triopoly of RISE, SNP and SDP that had dominated Scottish politics.
Two real options emerged from the elections, a separatist minority government, propped up by the UPA - or a cross community government made up of moderate parties from both sides of the constitutional question. A purely unionist government was mathematically impossible, with National, Unity and the SDP only holding 38 seats between them. The Scottish Government would fall to those in the middle of the independence question - although this came with its own complication - as the constitutional moderates stretched from the radical socialist UPA all the wall to the centre-right Alba Party. Whatever government formed was likely to be messy.
Harvie had to grow his church to include both hard and soft nationalist parties
“Pro-referendum parties in Scotland have won an absolute majority in regional elections. "We have a clear, absolute majority in the Scottish parliament to go ahead with a referendum," Scottish President Patrick Harvie said. Hague's spokesperson Dia Chakravarty argued that the unilateralists had "failed" by not securing a majority. "This election should serve to end the independence debate once and for all," she told the BBC. The government has dismissed any secession plans as "nonsense". The pro-independence parties said ahead of the vote that they considered it a de-facto referendum on independence from the UK. They argue that the British government has refused to allow a legally recognised referendum to take place. Opinion polls suggest a majority of Scots favour a referendum on independence but are divided over whether they want to secede.” - Pro-referendum parties win Scottish elections, BBC News Bulletin (2017)
As the incumbent and the man with the largest caucus, Harvie had the first chance to form a government, he indicated his preference was to maintain his current government, a RISE/SNP Cabinet with the support of the Workers Party, with the goal to persuade the UPA to at least abstain. Despite the SNP’s losses over the Scottish Parliament term, agreeing a deal with Keith Brown was easier than John Swinney, the party had moved to the left since Swinney’s departure - with Brown being solidly on the liberal wing and the conservatives moving off to form Alba. With the SNP’s senior leadership being so close to a referendum, no one wanted to harm its momentum, a coalition deal was signed in little over a week.
The Worker’s Party and UPA were a little more difficult. Term limited leader Richie Venton had been replaced by Róisín McLaren who believed the Worker’s Party hadn’t been aggressive enough in pursuing a referendum timeline. McLaren wanted the Scottish Government to instead commit to a referendum within a year, instead of the 2020 date Harvie had promised. Eventually a compromise was reached, committing the government to a referendum by the first quarter of 2019 and an independence declaration by the end of year in the result of a Yes vote. With the unilateralist bloc in the Scottish Parliament united, they now had to win over Mhairi Black.
Black's embrace of RISE worried some in the UPA's head office
The People’s Alliance presented a problem for the separatist movement, whilst they were a pro-referendum party, they were officially neutral on the issue, with a variety of opinions on the party’s front, with Westminster leader Bell Ribeiro-Addy favouring Scotland remaining in the union, whilst the party’s Scottish spokesperson advocating for a Yes vote should a vote arise. In negotiations, the People’s Party was much more concerned with economic issues than constitutional ones, demanding stronger restrictions on private landlords, especially in regards to evictions - all things Harvie was happy to commit to. With the People’s Party onboard, Harvie officially had a majority.
Patrick Harvie Cabinet 2017-
- President - Patrick Harvie (RISE)
- Vice-President - Keith Brown (SNP)
- Minister of Governance and Institutional Relations - Tommy Shepherd (RISE)
- Minister of Agriculture and the Environment - Dennis Canvan (RISE)
- Minister of Home Affairs - Humza Yousaf (SNP)
- Minister of Justice - Colin Fox (RISE)
- Minister of Economy and Knowledge - Maggie Chapman (RISE)
- Minister of Culture - Shona Robinson (SNP)
- Minister of Enterprise and Employment - Alex Neil (RISE)
- Minister of Education - John Finnie (RISE)
- Minister of Health - Angus Robertson (SNP)
- Minister of Territory and Sustainability - Lorna Slater (RISE)
The Scottish question would define Hague's legacy
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