Chapter 83: Hard Choices
The transition parties both saw poor results
“A new political era opened up in the UK on Sunday. Brits have decided to end over a decade of two-party rule by the National and Social Democratic Parties. Instead, their voting choices in Sunday’s general election have created a fragmented Commons. The conservative incumbent, William Hague, was the first of the main candidates to make a public statement after the Sunday ballot. Speaking a little after midnight, the prime minister insisted on the need to reach deals in the new scenario. “Whoever wins the elections has the obligation to try to form a government” he told supporters. “It’s not going to be easy. We will need to talk a lot, but I am going to try.” For his part, the SDP's Andy Burnham thanked the more than seven million Brits who voted for him “in the face of the attempt to make the SDP disappear.” - National Party wins British election but will find it difficult to govern, Marc Herman, Politico (2016)
Expectations are a funny thing, one the face of it, Britain’s insurgent parties had a very good night on July 1st. The UPA, Unity and RISE all made unprecedented gains, with the leftists a few seats away from securing the office opposition office, but expectations had soured these victories. Britain had drawn the eyes of the world with pundits declaring a dramatic death for Britain’s two party adversarial system, but this did not materialise. The duopoly lost eighteen seats between them - not brilliant, but not a disaster. The main story of the night was the complete collapse of Reform - down to one seat - cannibalised by Alan Sugar’s new movement.
For the UPA, the night was a disappointment, polls across the campaign had shown the People’s Alliance as Britain second largest party, and some even showed them coming first, a third place result - no matter how strong - was still a third place result. Unity too, who had also been polling well before the campaign, found itself in last place of the four GB-wide parties. Whilst RISE had made moderate gains, it’s frenemy in the SNP had made much worse losses, decreasing the overall number of separatist MPs in Westminster and damaging the Scottish Government's call for a unilateral independence referendum, whilst moderate nationalists were leaving the SNP, they weren’t turning to RISE.
The SNP was torn apart between governing partners - National at Westminster and RISE in Edinburgh
Low expectations arguably saved Andy Burnham, for whom holding onto his six Prime Minister’s Questions as Leader of the Opposition was a miracle, but now Burnham faced a choice. Whilst Hague had secured a clear victory in the election, leading all others by 60 seats, a lone National Government was mathematically impossible. Even with an alliance of all centrist and right wing parties (and that was quite the task), there still wouldn’t be a majority for a Hague premiership. A Social Democratic Government would also be nigh-impossible, even if Burnham could get Ribeiro-Addy on-side (unlikely considering their fractious relationship) he would still have to recruit almost every other progressive party, or get Alan Sugar to abandon all principles and support a government including the radical left.
“The UPA has refused to join any coalition including the National Party which won last week's election but fell short of a majority. The People's Party was launched two years ago, based on mass anti-austerity protests. It came third, with 106 seats. UPA leader Bell Ribeiro-Addy rebuffed the National leader and acting Prime Minister William Hague. New elections might have to be held. National came top with 168 seats in the 497-seat lower house of parliament - far short of a majority. In second place was the SDP with 113, and the new liberal Unity party was fourth with 58. Speaking after talks with Mr Hague, Ms Ribeiro-Addy said her priority was "social emergency" legislation. She refused to support Mr Hague - ruling out a coalition partnership or abstention in a confidence vote.” - No UPA coalition deal with Hague, BBC News Bulletin (2016)
Considering he had built his entire campaign around political stability, as he had the Troika breathing down his neck, Hague made the first move alluding to a grand coalition in his post election statement: “the United Kingdom cannot allow itself a period of political uncertainty that squanders the progress that has been achieved in the last four years”, he would tell cameras. This effectively threw a hand grenade into the already divided Social Democrats, as Shadow Cabinet Ministers and MPs loudly and openly debated the merits of grand coalition, including spats on Twitter. SDP Parliamentarians were well aware of what happened to their cousins in the Greek PASOK, who got into bed with the right only to be swept away.
Hague would struggle to unite his party, let alone a coalition
Notably absent in the post-election scrum was Andy Burnham, the only major party leader to refuse to talk to the press in the aftermath of the result. He was stuck between a rock and a hard place, joining with Hague and he’d alienate millions of left wing voters, align with the UPA, or allow fresh elections to happen and he risked pushing Britain closer to the abyss. Ribiero-Addy didn’t make things easier for Burnham when she declared support for a Scottish Referendum would be a red line in any coalition negotiations. With Unity and the UPA doing very well in these elections, Burnham’s MPs on left and right had political options unheard of before, if he played his cards wrong he faced a party splits, with his own Shadow Housing Secretary Len McCluskey threatening a defection to the UPA if Burnham made a “deal with the devil”.
Whilst the UPA failed to usurp the SDP, they still did remarkably well across the country. As well as the Westminster picture they won control of Provincial Governments for the first time, including three of the four London Provinces and Greater Manchester. As well as strong results in unexpected places like South Yorkshire, Berkshire and Gloucestershire. Ribiero-Addy could afford to bide her time, and some Social Democrats accused her of purposely sabotaging coalition negotiations by demanding a Scottish Referendum, something Unity would never agree to. The People’s Alliance instead called for a popular front of the left, including not only the SDP, UPA and RISE but other smaller parties like the SNP, Ecology and Plaid in a similar manner to the Portuguese “engenhoca” government. Whatever Government was formed, it was likely to be a marriage of convenience at best.
“Britain's SDP on Monday ruled out forming a new government with any party that supported a referendum on independence in Scotland. This is a stand that prolongs political uncertainty after this month’s inconclusive national election. As the four main parties in Britain vie to form a government following the election, Scotland has emerged as one of the main sticking points. National and the SDP, both reject any referendum in Scotland, where separatists won a majority of Scottish seats in the election. Leftist UPA, which has been cast as potential kingmaker and says Britain should be recognized as a multinational state. “We will not discuss questions about the territorial integrity of the country,” SDP Leader Andy Burnham said at a news conference.” - Britain’s Social Democrats reject coalition deal with any party urging Scottish referendum, Angus Berwick, Reuters (2016)
The election results prompted an existential crisis for the SNP
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), but it would make sense in this case, if Scotland also retains the monarchy. Also means, if the GCSE was not introduced ITTL to replace O-Levels and the CSE, that Northern Ireland and Scotland could both switch to the OTL 
