Tielhard
Banned
As many of you know a war between Great Britain and the Federal Americans as a result of the Trent affair is a regular topic for discussion on this board. It comes around somewhat more frequently than Christmas. In recent discussions on the outcome of such a war I and several others most notably 67th Tigers and MrP have comprehensively demonstrated that the USA is at a huge disadvantage in any such war and on the balance of probabilities will be defeated in very swift order should it allow such a war to start.
I wrote a time-line based on this. No , that is not quite true I wrote several time-lines and did not complete any of them. The reason being it was all far too one sided. The Lion roars and the Eagle is humbled, end of story, it was believable but completely un-entertaining. I finally figured out what I did not like about what I was writing, and it is this, the Americans know they have weaknesses and do nothing to rectify or nullify them. So with that in mind I thought it would be a good idea to play Devil’s (or at least America’s) advocate and re-visit the federal American disadvantages and try to rectify or nullify them. I would greatly appreciate any comments you may have.
1) The USA has a huge store of gold and silver in California that it cannot move once war starts. This is because the overland route is subject to interdiction by the CSA, is months long and requires a vast logistics exercise. The sea route is subject to interdiction by the British.
Proposed US solution: Get the bullion out before the war starts and send it to a neutral country. Possible close options are the Netherlands at Batavia, China, Portugal at Macao or the Russian Empire on Kamchatka (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) or in Alaska at Sitka.
2) The Federal USA is desperately short of powder.
Proposed US solution 1: Attempt to buy Chinese powder will Californian bullion before commencement of hostilities.
3) The British know that the Federal USA keeps its major powder store on the East coast close to the sea. Similarly the largest manufacturing arsenals are also close to the sea.
Proposed US solution 1: Move the powder in the store in land in conditions of secrecy. Prepare an ambush for troops advancing from the coast.
Proposed US Mitigation 1: Attack and occupy that area of Kentucky suitable for powder manufacture.
Proposed US solution 2: Move manufacturing of small arms in land. If that is not possible fortify arsenal sites.
Proposed US mitigation 2: If Arsenal sites are destroyed by the enemy. Do not resume rifled musket production instead invest resources and human capital in private gun production. This would result in a more diverse range of arms being used by the Federal armies but it would also result in a far larger number of repeating rifles being used by them too.
4) According to 67th Tigers the British are likely to abandon the Niagara peninsula and organise their defense from deep within Canada (I myself am not convinced of this but the evidence is with him).
US opportunity: Destroy or prepare for destruction the Welland canals especially the lock system. If the British have to rebuild the canals it will take some years longer than the duration of the war. They will be restricted to Lake Ontario for the duration of the war. The USA will have control of all of the upper lakes and hence the American/Canadian grain trade. The USA could seek to minimise smuggling of US grains and restrict the flow of Canadian grains.
US opportunity 2: Close lake Ontario to the British. The USS New Orleans an old style sail line-of-battle ship (98) is ‘complete on the stocks’ and housed over in fair condition at Sackett’s Harbour at the confluence of the St. Lawrence and Lake Ontario. Equipped with modern guns and perhaps chained and armour plated she can stand against anything the British can send up the St. Lawrence with the possible exception of Aetna. To take her the British would have to mob her and take heavy losses.
5) The US Navy is in a very difficult position if it has to fight the British and the CSA at the same time. It cannot give up the blockade of the South. If it does then the neutrals will declare the blockade raise and will very soon afterwards recognise the independence of the CSA. If it does not give up the blockade the RN will destroy the USN a bit at a time. They must fight a naval action and win or at least not loose too badly.
6)
Proposed US strategy: First, at all cost capture New Orleans if it has not already been captured. Go into mass production of light ironclads at Carondeletes and start sending them down river to clear out the confederates.
New Orleans and the mouth of the Mississippi must not fall or the British and Confederates can cut the USA in two. K
Keep most of the schooners and weaker steam boats on station. Instruct them to run if the RN approaches then come back if they elude capture. Send the better stream boats to New York. Call home the cruisers. There are 3 serviceable 1st rates in New York and Boston plate them, up gun them and if time put an engine in them. If not then use armoured tugs to move them don’t bother with mast and rigging. Finish Monitor and Galena lay down further Galena hulls and build them fast. Finish New Ironsides. In the best case the USN may only be facing 3 British armoured ships, worst case could be 9 but is very unlikely. By taking this approach the USA could have up to 8 armoured or part armoured vessels of limited utility. Part armour the bigger frigates. Complete all of the builds currently underway. Fill six or more fast merchant ships with concrete in the bow. No fireships or bombs the USA does not have the powder. Lastly there are lots of steam launches in New York Harbour convert them into spar torpedo boats.
Offer battle outside the outer entrance to New York harbour. The best way to do this is a public letter echoing Broke’s terms to Lawrence. Milne would be unable to refuse even if he wanted to. Three lines of battle. Armoured ships and big frigates including sail (this will be SLOW 6 knots or less). Second line steam war sloops and gunboats with the fast merchant concrete on the flanks. Between the first and second line as may spar torpedo boats as you can find. In the third line about 20 fast converted merchant ships backed iron where possible additional wooden armour sanctuaries where not. full to bursting with soldiers. Use AMCs and a couple of gunboats as outliers and look for targets of opportunity.
Ensure both the inner and outer forts are manned and cannoned-up and all three channels are mined (torpedoed) to cover the retreat of the remaining fleet.
Strike at the RN’s armoured ships and big cruisers with the 1st line and spar torpedo boats. Use the big concrete rams against anything big you can find. Use the second line to protect the third until they are close enough to board.
Pray (Prey?). This is the best I can think of for a US naval victory. If anyone can think of anything better that does not have monitors surviving one on one engagements with big armoured ships or even big cruisers (more than once or twice) please let me know.
I wrote a time-line based on this. No , that is not quite true I wrote several time-lines and did not complete any of them. The reason being it was all far too one sided. The Lion roars and the Eagle is humbled, end of story, it was believable but completely un-entertaining. I finally figured out what I did not like about what I was writing, and it is this, the Americans know they have weaknesses and do nothing to rectify or nullify them. So with that in mind I thought it would be a good idea to play Devil’s (or at least America’s) advocate and re-visit the federal American disadvantages and try to rectify or nullify them. I would greatly appreciate any comments you may have.
1) The USA has a huge store of gold and silver in California that it cannot move once war starts. This is because the overland route is subject to interdiction by the CSA, is months long and requires a vast logistics exercise. The sea route is subject to interdiction by the British.
Proposed US solution: Get the bullion out before the war starts and send it to a neutral country. Possible close options are the Netherlands at Batavia, China, Portugal at Macao or the Russian Empire on Kamchatka (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) or in Alaska at Sitka.
2) The Federal USA is desperately short of powder.
Proposed US solution 1: Attempt to buy Chinese powder will Californian bullion before commencement of hostilities.
3) The British know that the Federal USA keeps its major powder store on the East coast close to the sea. Similarly the largest manufacturing arsenals are also close to the sea.
Proposed US solution 1: Move the powder in the store in land in conditions of secrecy. Prepare an ambush for troops advancing from the coast.
Proposed US Mitigation 1: Attack and occupy that area of Kentucky suitable for powder manufacture.
Proposed US solution 2: Move manufacturing of small arms in land. If that is not possible fortify arsenal sites.
Proposed US mitigation 2: If Arsenal sites are destroyed by the enemy. Do not resume rifled musket production instead invest resources and human capital in private gun production. This would result in a more diverse range of arms being used by the Federal armies but it would also result in a far larger number of repeating rifles being used by them too.
4) According to 67th Tigers the British are likely to abandon the Niagara peninsula and organise their defense from deep within Canada (I myself am not convinced of this but the evidence is with him).
US opportunity: Destroy or prepare for destruction the Welland canals especially the lock system. If the British have to rebuild the canals it will take some years longer than the duration of the war. They will be restricted to Lake Ontario for the duration of the war. The USA will have control of all of the upper lakes and hence the American/Canadian grain trade. The USA could seek to minimise smuggling of US grains and restrict the flow of Canadian grains.
US opportunity 2: Close lake Ontario to the British. The USS New Orleans an old style sail line-of-battle ship (98) is ‘complete on the stocks’ and housed over in fair condition at Sackett’s Harbour at the confluence of the St. Lawrence and Lake Ontario. Equipped with modern guns and perhaps chained and armour plated she can stand against anything the British can send up the St. Lawrence with the possible exception of Aetna. To take her the British would have to mob her and take heavy losses.
5) The US Navy is in a very difficult position if it has to fight the British and the CSA at the same time. It cannot give up the blockade of the South. If it does then the neutrals will declare the blockade raise and will very soon afterwards recognise the independence of the CSA. If it does not give up the blockade the RN will destroy the USN a bit at a time. They must fight a naval action and win or at least not loose too badly.
6)
Proposed US strategy: First, at all cost capture New Orleans if it has not already been captured. Go into mass production of light ironclads at Carondeletes and start sending them down river to clear out the confederates.
New Orleans and the mouth of the Mississippi must not fall or the British and Confederates can cut the USA in two. K
Keep most of the schooners and weaker steam boats on station. Instruct them to run if the RN approaches then come back if they elude capture. Send the better stream boats to New York. Call home the cruisers. There are 3 serviceable 1st rates in New York and Boston plate them, up gun them and if time put an engine in them. If not then use armoured tugs to move them don’t bother with mast and rigging. Finish Monitor and Galena lay down further Galena hulls and build them fast. Finish New Ironsides. In the best case the USN may only be facing 3 British armoured ships, worst case could be 9 but is very unlikely. By taking this approach the USA could have up to 8 armoured or part armoured vessels of limited utility. Part armour the bigger frigates. Complete all of the builds currently underway. Fill six or more fast merchant ships with concrete in the bow. No fireships or bombs the USA does not have the powder. Lastly there are lots of steam launches in New York Harbour convert them into spar torpedo boats.
Offer battle outside the outer entrance to New York harbour. The best way to do this is a public letter echoing Broke’s terms to Lawrence. Milne would be unable to refuse even if he wanted to. Three lines of battle. Armoured ships and big frigates including sail (this will be SLOW 6 knots or less). Second line steam war sloops and gunboats with the fast merchant concrete on the flanks. Between the first and second line as may spar torpedo boats as you can find. In the third line about 20 fast converted merchant ships backed iron where possible additional wooden armour sanctuaries where not. full to bursting with soldiers. Use AMCs and a couple of gunboats as outliers and look for targets of opportunity.
Ensure both the inner and outer forts are manned and cannoned-up and all three channels are mined (torpedoed) to cover the retreat of the remaining fleet.
Strike at the RN’s armoured ships and big cruisers with the 1st line and spar torpedo boats. Use the big concrete rams against anything big you can find. Use the second line to protect the third until they are close enough to board.
Pray (Prey?). This is the best I can think of for a US naval victory. If anyone can think of anything better that does not have monitors surviving one on one engagements with big armoured ships or even big cruisers (more than once or twice) please let me know.
, but seems reasonable.