A united Germany in the 50´s?

What if the Western had accepted the Stalin/March notes?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin_Note

Who is most likely to win the elections? What would it have meant for German
"economic miracle"? And what would the future Bundesheer look like?

I don't think you get the point, the whole point of Stalin's proposal was that there would be no Cold War German military it would have been a political masterstoke by Stalin forcing Anglo-American troops and France alone to defend Western Europe.
 
A neutral Germany might end up with all the power of a neutral Yugoslavia or Vietnam. As for the point already eluded to; I wouldn't believe Stalin if he said water was wet.
 
I don't think you get the point, the whole point of Stalin's proposal was that there would be no Cold War German military it would have been a political masterstoke by Stalin forcing Anglo-American troops and France alone to defend Western Europe.

I dont know about the military as one of the points was "Germany was permitted to have national armed forces for its own defense and to manufacture munitions for these forces."

A neutral Germany would be a buffer state forming part of a neutral barrier from Finland to Yugoslavia.
 
It would have simply been yet another way for the Soviets to strip down the Germans. They already got fully half of reparations, free reign in Prussia, lots of German and Czech lands the Anglo-Americans took, half of the stuff from the Ruhr... It would have just ended up with the Germans forking over more stuff, though I doubt the French would be happy about leaving the areas the Americans gave them to occupy. How would the Oder-Nisse line be?
 
I dont know about the military as one of the points was "Germany was permitted to have national armed forces for its own defense and to manufacture munitions for these forces."

A neutral Germany would be a buffer state forming part of a neutral barrier from Finland to Yugoslavia.

But it never would have been accepted. Without American, British, and French troops and influence, it then becomes that much easier for the USSR to do what they did throughout Eastern Europe to Germany as a whole.

The outrage at letting the Soviets control all of Germany would bring down any president.
 
By the fifties they had already created the satellites to cover the western border, so why not let it be a Finland on a large scale, and the french can keep their Saarland buffer
 
By the fifties they had already created the satellites to cover the western border, so why not let it be a Finland on a large scale, and the french can keep their Saarland buffer

This is Stalin. A neutral Germany during the Kruschev era might not be, but by then no one would have went for it.

Germany had a very large population, and was worth more as part of NATO than it would be as a combined neutral.
 
This is Stalin. A neutral Germany during the Kruschev era might not be, but by then no one would have went for it.

Germany had a very large population, and was worth more as part of NATO than it would be as a combined neutral.

Why do you need NATO if Germany is neutral and in the way?
 
A neutral Germany might end up with all the power of a neutral Yugoslavia or Vietnam. As for the point already eluded to; I wouldn't believe Stalin if he said water was wet.

Off base what if: WW2 was a big by Yugoslavia to establish continental hegemony, with their invasion of Russia defeated at the gates of Moscow.

Germany is a magnitude more powerful than those two states.
 

Adler

Banned
Adenauer had refused this offer at once. He thought it was a ruse. However, the SPD and partly the FDP wanted to negotiate more (albeit cautiuosly). If it was a ruse, Stalin could be defeated on a propagandistical way, as he was bluffing. Indeed also in the USA several files exist, in which the diplomats say, it was true from Stalin.

So let's assume Stalin was true and all governments were accepting negotiations. So what would have been the results?

The positions:

Soviets:

- Borders of Potsdam
- Absolute neutrality
- Democratic rights and plurality of parties (free elections not mentioned)
- Free trade for Germany
- National Forces "strong enough to defend the country"

Allied answer:

- Free elections in whole Germany, supervised by UN
- No Oder-Neiße line
- German right to enter alliances like allowed within the UN charta
- No German army (Note: The Bundeswehr was not planned at first, as the German armed forces should be part of a European Army. But this European Defense Community failed, when the French parliament refused to take part)

Given all sides wanted it generally (where I have severe doubts), I could guess this deal:

- Free elections in whole Germany. The SED becomes a whole German party, but loses the power as main East German party.

The Germans could live with that, especially as without the support of the Soviets the SED would be mostly isolated. The SPD was strongly against the KPD and SED. If Stalin speculated on such a move to get whole Germany, he would not succeed.

- Neutrality of Germany.

Stalin would not accept anything else. However, he would have to pay for that:

- No borders of 1945.

With the Allies and Germany demanding more, he might be forced to give Pommerania and Silesia back. With East Prussia I have doubts, but it is not totally impossible. Germany would argue to have a right on these territories according to the right of self determination and the Atlantic Charta. Furthermore it would make the country much more defendable to the east. I think that would be the price for the Germans to accept the neutrality.

- German Army:

Strong German forces, as the country should be able to defend herself against two opposite blocks.


Seeing this as realistic outcome, I have really doubts, Stalin meant it earnest.

But what are the consequences? Germany as a neutral state reformed. It will be a power again. Unalligned to anyone, but weaker than both security systems, NATO and WP. Very likely no European Communities as they could be regarded as not neutral. However, a system with Switzerland, Austria, Sweden and Finland might be okay.

The Cold War loses tensions. However, at one day the USSR will be bankrupt and collapse. This might last for some time longer though.

Adler
 
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