Adenauer had refused this offer at once. He thought it was a ruse. However, the SPD and partly the FDP wanted to negotiate more (albeit cautiuosly). If it was a ruse, Stalin could be defeated on a propagandistical way, as he was bluffing. Indeed also in the USA several files exist, in which the diplomats say, it was true from Stalin.
So let's assume Stalin was true and all governments were accepting negotiations. So what would have been the results?
The positions:
Soviets:
- Borders of Potsdam
- Absolute neutrality
- Democratic rights and plurality of parties (free elections not mentioned)
- Free trade for Germany
- National Forces "strong enough to defend the country"
Allied answer:
- Free elections in whole Germany, supervised by UN
- No Oder-Neiße line
- German right to enter alliances like allowed within the UN charta
- No German army (Note: The Bundeswehr was not planned at first, as the German armed forces should be part of a European Army. But this European Defense Community failed, when the French parliament refused to take part)
Given all sides wanted it generally (where I have severe doubts), I could guess this deal:
- Free elections in whole Germany. The SED becomes a whole German party, but loses the power as main East German party.
The Germans could live with that, especially as without the support of the Soviets the SED would be mostly isolated. The SPD was strongly against the KPD and SED. If Stalin speculated on such a move to get whole Germany, he would not succeed.
- Neutrality of Germany.
Stalin would not accept anything else. However, he would have to pay for that:
- No borders of 1945.
With the Allies and Germany demanding more, he might be forced to give Pommerania and Silesia back. With East Prussia I have doubts, but it is not totally impossible. Germany would argue to have a right on these territories according to the right of self determination and the Atlantic Charta. Furthermore it would make the country much more defendable to the east. I think that would be the price for the Germans to accept the neutrality.
- German Army:
Strong German forces, as the country should be able to defend herself against two opposite blocks.
Seeing this as realistic outcome, I have really doubts, Stalin meant it earnest.
But what are the consequences? Germany as a neutral state reformed. It will be a power again. Unalligned to anyone, but weaker than both security systems, NATO and WP. Very likely no European Communities as they could be regarded as not neutral. However, a system with Switzerland, Austria, Sweden and Finland might be okay.
The Cold War loses tensions. However, at one day the USSR will be bankrupt and collapse. This might last for some time longer though.
Adler