A United China vs Japan

Hello I have been on this board for a month and seen very few topics on the Sino-Japanese War, so I made up a few and any discussions would be appreciated.

A) How would China had fared against Japan if Chaing and Mao had put aside their differences sooner to combat Japan? Would China's military industry been built up in time?

B) How would the Nationalists have done if CHaing hadn't squandered his best and brightest units and generals in the defense of Shanghai when that city was doomed to fail? Many talks about Chaing using his elite crack troops as fodder to bring League of Nations interventions

C) Was there a successful strategy Chaing could have used to defeat the Japanese or was trading space for time the only one?

D) What would have happened if Japan does not bomb Pearl Harbor?
By 1941 the war had dragged on for 5 years into a protracted stalemate, with neither side having the force of arms to decisively bring to bear against the other, could China have fought a war of deadlock and agreed to some sort of Catch-22 like ceeding Manchuria or was all of CHina united in removing the Japanese presence from the mainland?


 
A) Mao Zedong was all for saying he was in a United Front against the Japanese, but the truth is that not only did he expressly order his troops not to fight the Japanese, he even let his armies actively undermine the Nationalist war effort. If Mao dies, let's say in the Long March and is replaced by Zhang Guotao, who in OTL had been disgraced by Mao and defected to the Nationalists), there is a real possibility of genuine Nationalist-Communist cooperation against the Japanese.

China's industry was growing but still relatively crappy compared to the Japanese, and the Communists who had little industry of their own would not have helped much in this regard.

B) I'm not quite sure what would've happened. He only had a few of those upgraded divisions available, and while they would've gained him a few more victories in the South, I can't say if it would really matter in the strategic sense.

C) If China had been more united from the mid-20s, the RoC could've gotten the Manchurian forces to wage an insurgency war against the Japanese occupation. CKS might've also been able to move the Manchurian factories to somewhere safe like Sichuan. I read that there was an important artillery factory in Manchuria that may have helped the Nationalists if they had had it.

If the Chinese can make the Japanese get stuck in Manchuria, they might make any further conquests (an invasion of China proper) seem like a bad idea from the point of view of the Japanese government. A more united China would also be in a better position to repel a Japanese amphibious assault. Another small thing to consider is the possibility of the Chinese, having delayed the Japanese attack, to get more help from Germany, including perhaps being able to acquire submarines, which could create problems for the Japanese navy, which was very bad at ASW operations.

D) It would probably be a stalemate, but eventually Japan would retreat because of the 1 to 6 disadvantage they have in manpower.
 
A) How would China had fared against Japan if Chaing and Mao had put aside their differences sooner to combat Japan? Would China's military industry been built up in time?


This would have no effect. The Communists by 1936 were not a significant factor in China's preparedness for war. It had no impact on China's industrialization. Certainly the CCP was only minorly involved in the war.

B) How would the Nationalists have done if CHaing hadn't squandered his best and brightest units and generals in the defense of Shanghai when that city was doomed to fail? Many talks about Chaing using his elite crack troops as fodder to bring League of Nations interventions


This will do a lot to boost Chiang as 1) he has a cadre of trained officers and men that know how to fight, and 2) Chiang has loyal troops which are reliable. He won't be as dependent on the warlords which will improve his ability to coordinate men. But it won't win him the war. He'll still need warlord troops to some degree, and Japan should still be able to seize most of the territory it did. At best, he might retain Wuhan and the Pearl River Delta. This will help China somewhat, but it won't impact much of the war. What it does do is prepare Chiang better for the postwar struggle.

C) Was there a successful strategy Chaing could have used to defeat the Japanese or was trading space for time the only one?


No. There were some tactical moves that could have improved things, but most things were out of his hand. Chiang choose to fight Japan at the time because it was politically necessary for him to do so, and he misjudged how well his troops could perform. China was at least 2 years away from being able to achieve what he wanted in terms of improved industrial power and sufficiently trained number of troops.

D) What would have happened if Japan does not bomb Pearl Harbor?
By 1941 the war had dragged on for 5 years into a protracted stalemate, with neither side having the force of arms to decisively bring to bear against the other, could China have fought a war of deadlock and agreed to some sort of Catch-22 like ceeding Manchuria or was all of CHina united in removing the Japanese presence from the mainland?


If by no attack on Pearl Harbor you mean Japan does not strike south (no attacks on Indonesia or Burma), then China will begin to improve. The US planned on sending two volunteer air groups (not just one) and substantially boost Lend Lease to China. With the Burma Road being open, it gives Chiang steady supply and access to the world economy. Which means none of the economic pressures China faced from being cut off. American aid would have actually gone to building up Chinese forces instead of the American air force, and it would have boosted Chinese industry as opposed to fueling inflation.

Given time, Chiang might have forced Japan into a negotiated peace. Machukuo likely would have remained Japanese, but Japan would have needed to pull out of the rest of China. Not sure what kind of things could have been given to Japan in return. Both sides were very stubborn about minimal war aims. The most likely scenario is ongoing war. Chiang likely would not be ready to take back any land from Japan until 1945/1946 at the earliest. The war might last well into the 1950s.

No matter how much support Chiang gets, he won't be able to win until he reforms much of the Nationalist Army. But he can't do that without risking some warlords defecting (at the very least, not cooperating with him even if they do not defect directly to the Japanese). How well Chiang can do so, and at what time he'll risk that, is a very difficult question. Multiple opinions on this could all be reasonable.
 
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