A True October Surprise: The Added Surprises
- Thread starter lord caedus
- Start date
I have TAS on a LibreOffice doc, although sometimes the posted portion is edited from my notes (mostly for typos and phrasing issues that I notice after copy+pasting).
I don't have a separate doc for ATOS itself or any general notes, though, which I probably should have. It usually just takes a quick look-through at the ATOS thread to jog my memory about what I've established when I was writing up and creating the boxes for TAS.
Humphrey Cabinet
The Humphrey Cabinet was notable in many ways. First, there was the fact that Humphrey retained quite a few members of the Johnson cabinet. Most of the Johnson holdovers, including Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and Agriculture Secretary Orville Freeman (both of whom were originally appointed by President Kennedy) stayed at their positions, while some, including Secretary of State Clark Clifford, were shuffled from their posts that they had been appointed to under Johnson. Second, there was the beginning of a permanent shift in the demographics of presidential cabinet selection. Humphrey would be the first president whose cabinet contained more than one racial minority, selecting former Ambassador to Luxembourg Patricia Roberts Harris to the post of Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare (making her the first female African-American secretary as well as only the third woman named to the Cabinet) and Cleveland Mayor Carl Stokes to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Humphrey's selection of Jean Westwood as his third Secretary of Commerce would also make his the first cabinet with more than one woman serving as a cabinet secretary.
Former Peace Corps director and ambassador Sargent Shriver also became the first Secretary of the Department of Consumer Protection in 1973, the first of three new cabinet departments created in the 1970s (although that decade would also see the most recent demotion from cabinet rank—the office of Postmaster General—during the Bush administration). Finally, Humphrey's promotion of Defense Secretary Cyrus Vance to replace Clifford in his second term was one of the most recent instances of cabinet secretaries being "reshuffled" from within the cabinet itself, as subsequent presidents for the most part have only "reshuffled" cabinet-level appointees into the cabinet itself instead of moving secretaries around to lead different departments, as is the norm in parliamentary systems.
The Humphrey Cabinet was also the first in American history to seriously consider invoking the 25th Amendment, with members deliberating among themselves during the final days of President Humphrey's life as the president's health deteriorated rapidly. It was only Vice President Muskie's reticence and that Humphrey remained lucid, if extremely weak, for most of the period, that prevented enough cabinet secretaries to sign on to declare Humphrey unable to fulfill his presidential duties. For the most part, the membership of the Muskie Cabinet was the same as the membership of the final Humphrey cabinet, although Muskie would get to replace Westwood (with Larry O’Brien), Carl Stokes (with J. Palmer Gaillard, Jr.), and Raymond Shafer (with Daniel Friedman).
Former Peace Corps director and ambassador Sargent Shriver also became the first Secretary of the Department of Consumer Protection in 1973, the first of three new cabinet departments created in the 1970s (although that decade would also see the most recent demotion from cabinet rank—the office of Postmaster General—during the Bush administration). Finally, Humphrey's promotion of Defense Secretary Cyrus Vance to replace Clifford in his second term was one of the most recent instances of cabinet secretaries being "reshuffled" from within the cabinet itself, as subsequent presidents for the most part have only "reshuffled" cabinet-level appointees into the cabinet itself instead of moving secretaries around to lead different departments, as is the norm in parliamentary systems.
The Humphrey Cabinet was also the first in American history to seriously consider invoking the 25th Amendment, with members deliberating among themselves during the final days of President Humphrey's life as the president's health deteriorated rapidly. It was only Vice President Muskie's reticence and that Humphrey remained lucid, if extremely weak, for most of the period, that prevented enough cabinet secretaries to sign on to declare Humphrey unable to fulfill his presidential duties. For the most part, the membership of the Muskie Cabinet was the same as the membership of the final Humphrey cabinet, although Muskie would get to replace Westwood (with Larry O’Brien), Carl Stokes (with J. Palmer Gaillard, Jr.), and Raymond Shafer (with Daniel Friedman).
Good, but I think some things are interesting like Chico Mendes don't be killed in 1988 and another things are so strange likely a strong PSDC (a perennial party in OTL and why so poweful?) and PTB surviving (could be a good point with Leonel Brizola taking back the party from Ivette Vargas and unificates good part of left-wing politicians in Brazil). Where's PMDB, by the way (endorsing PTB but in wait to take presidency after Pimentel's impeachment)?
1. TTL's PSDC is not the same as the OTL party, which was butterflied away (since it formed in the 1990s IOTL). They just happen to have the same name.
2. That's pretty much what happened. This PTB is essentially a revival of the pre-coup PTB that managed to grab enough left-wing politicians after the restoration of democracy to emerge as the center-left party in Brazilian politics.
3. The PMDB was one of the parties that merged to form the PSDC.
One thing that might explain the strangeness is that Brazil's political system ITTL is much friendlier to the formation of larger, stronger parties than OTL, with higher thresholds for coalitions (compared to individual parties) to enter the National Congress, a two-round systems for the Senate and a requirement that parties win at least 2% of the total national vote before they can get seats in the National Congress.
Indian general election, 2016
The results of the 2016 Indian election was the end product of the weakening of the dominant Indian National Congress (INC), which has dominated the country's politics since independence in 1947. The government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had done little to persuade voters to support the party or other members of the United India Alliance (UIA). Despite India's economic growth and large strides to alleviate the desperate poverty faced in some states, the Singh government became increasingly tied to institutional corruption with feckless responses to large numbers of MPs being investigated or convicted of crimes. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its National Movement for Progress (NMP), while also (but not to the extent of the INC) being tarred with the brush of scandal, stood to gain from the inability of the INC to police itself.
Singh's government had fallen to a minority after UIA partners, like the All-Indian Trinamool Congress (AITC) left or outside support evaporated. The BJP, however, were unable to convince enough of the Workers' Front (WF), the smallest electoral alliance in the Lok Sabha, to support a no-confidence vote by the time Singh suffered a massive heart attack in June 2015. While surviving, Singh was left weak and in no condition to continue to lead the country. The INC selected Robert Vadra, the husband of Priyanka Gandhi (daughter of former PM Rajiv Gandhi and granddaughter of Indira Gandhi), to lead the party, a move greeted with derision as further proof of the Gandhi-Nehru family's control over the party.
Vadra and the INC partially reversed their slow electoral decline as a result of sympathy for the party following Singh's resignation and excitement about the new, young (Vadra was only 46 upon assuming office) prime minister. However, the stench of scandal remained in New Delhi and the All-India Party (AIP) under anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal began to cause concern among the main two electoral alliances that it could persuade other minor parties to support it as it began to spread nationally.
By the time of the election, polls indicated that India would return an even smaller UIA minority and possibility of prolonged negotiations to get one group to command the confidence of 272 members of the Lok Sabha.
The shocking result, a UIA majority, stunned the political landscape. Post-election analysis revealed that the primary beneficiary of the AIP was, paradoxically, the UIA, as the "throw the bums out" vote that would have went to the BJP or regional parties was instead divided just enough to allow the INC to win many seats by extremely thin margins. The disintegration of the WF over the life of the previous parliament similarly played a large role in keeping the INC in power. However, with unaffiliated regional parties like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK)—now the third-largest group in parliament as a result of nearly sweeping the state of Tamil Nadu—and AITC becoming larger players on the national stage, it is up to Vadra and BJP leader Sushma Swaraj to see if they can be integrated into the two main camps or if 2016 will be the last general election in the world's largest democracy to return a majority government.
Singh's government had fallen to a minority after UIA partners, like the All-Indian Trinamool Congress (AITC) left or outside support evaporated. The BJP, however, were unable to convince enough of the Workers' Front (WF), the smallest electoral alliance in the Lok Sabha, to support a no-confidence vote by the time Singh suffered a massive heart attack in June 2015. While surviving, Singh was left weak and in no condition to continue to lead the country. The INC selected Robert Vadra, the husband of Priyanka Gandhi (daughter of former PM Rajiv Gandhi and granddaughter of Indira Gandhi), to lead the party, a move greeted with derision as further proof of the Gandhi-Nehru family's control over the party.
Vadra and the INC partially reversed their slow electoral decline as a result of sympathy for the party following Singh's resignation and excitement about the new, young (Vadra was only 46 upon assuming office) prime minister. However, the stench of scandal remained in New Delhi and the All-India Party (AIP) under anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal began to cause concern among the main two electoral alliances that it could persuade other minor parties to support it as it began to spread nationally.
By the time of the election, polls indicated that India would return an even smaller UIA minority and possibility of prolonged negotiations to get one group to command the confidence of 272 members of the Lok Sabha.
The shocking result, a UIA majority, stunned the political landscape. Post-election analysis revealed that the primary beneficiary of the AIP was, paradoxically, the UIA, as the "throw the bums out" vote that would have went to the BJP or regional parties was instead divided just enough to allow the INC to win many seats by extremely thin margins. The disintegration of the WF over the life of the previous parliament similarly played a large role in keeping the INC in power. However, with unaffiliated regional parties like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK)—now the third-largest group in parliament as a result of nearly sweeping the state of Tamil Nadu—and AITC becoming larger players on the national stage, it is up to Vadra and BJP leader Sushma Swaraj to see if they can be integrated into the two main camps or if 2016 will be the last general election in the world's largest democracy to return a majority government.
Did India grab the whole of Kashmir at some point? Or is that just India claiming Kashmir on the electoral map?
They're just claiming all of it. In reality the boundaries for which country controls what in the Kashmir dispute are the same as OTL.
I made it a while ago, but I'd say it took me the better part of a night, mostly because I was adding to it as I calculated the results for each seat.
Are you talking about the Indian election? Because that seems like a pretty loose definition of landslide (majority of 14 in a 543-member body) if so.
Yeah, but it's 190 seats over the closest rival. Also, a very blue map.
And they just have members of the INC (or whatever the INC alliance member in Kashmir is called) acting as their representatives?
Sounds very Indian.
I mean, by the definition of how it is far larger than the Official Opposition.
Maps can be deceiving, especially since constituencies tend to be different sizes. Looking at the OTL 1992 UK map, for example, would leave you with the impression that the Conservatives won a big majority when in reality it was only a majority of 11 out of 650.
Well, it would be kind of telling if India didn't bother to extend the boundaries of its parliamentary constituencies to the areas it claims, wouldn't it?
That's not necessarily a good measure of electoral strength, since that would mean that even if the INC/UIA didn't win a majority, they could still claim a landslide because of how many more seats they'd won compared to their nearest rivals.
Elizabeth Dole
Elizabeth Dole is probably the most famous woman in American political history and the only woman to be nominated by a major party for the presidency. Born Mary Elizabeth Alexander Hanford, she originally was a Democrat, who worked in both the Johnson and Humphrey administrations, where she met Senator Bob Dole, who had recently divorced his first wife. An unlikely political friendship between the North Carolina Democrat and Kansas Republican 13 years her elder became a courtship and the two were married in 1975, with the new Mrs. Dole becoming a Republican as well. A year later, she became Second Lady after her husband's election to the vice presidency and eight years later, First Lady of the United States.
Dole, more than any other First Lady since Edith Wilson (who screened all matters of state following her husband's incapacitation by a stroke) involved herself with the administration in addition to the traditional roles expected of a First Lady. Serving as both one of her husband's most important advisers and liaison to women's groups across the country, Dole’s outspoken efforts to get Congress to allocate money to help with the fallout from the Kahuta disaster led to her being praised across the political spectrum. This was instrumental in the decision of the American Red Cross to offer her its presidency a year after her husband's defeat in his re-election bid, a role she would fill for almost eight years.
With her status as a former First Lady and on good terms with many in the business community, Dole was an outstanding fundraiser for the organization. With a relatively weak bench in North Carolina, Republican leaders asked Dole to run against incumbent Senator Harvey Gantt in 1996. Moving back to the state for the first time since 1959, the popular former First Lady rode Pete Wilson's coattails to victory, becoming the first female senator from the Tarheel State in the process as well as the first former First Lady to win elected office in her own right.
She was a loyal supporter of the Wilson administration in the Senate and was re-elected to a landslide victory in 2002. Soon afterwards, spurred on by her high name recognition and popularity and former Vice President Lamar Alexander's low numbers in polling match-ups with President Gephardt, Dole threw her hat into the ring for the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2004. A brutal, mudslinging campaign ensued that, among other things, resulted in whispers of marital problems between the former First Couple owing to ex-President Dole's absence from much of the campaign trail due to the grueling schedule being too much for an octogenarian man.
Dole won and ran an unusual general election campaign: picking well-respected moderate South Dakota Senator Larry Pressler as her running mate, then refusing to run to the right to assure conservatives (although she did pledge to continue the crackdown on illegal immigration similarly to former President Wilson's pledge and efforts). The campaign's attempt to play on homophobic and anti-transgender prejudice late in the campaign backfired spectacularly and, alongside the alienation of Hispanics from the Republican ticket continuing from Wilson and the humming economy led to Gephardt winning a comfortable re-election.
Following her defeat, Dole returned to the Senate and was a major sponsor both of the Immigration Reform Act of 2006 and a co-sponsor of the failed attempt at comprehensive energy reform. She opted to retire rather than seek a third term, retiring to Kansas with her husband. With both her husband and former president Bush too frail to travel to Deval Patrick's inauguration, she and Bush's son George W. stood on the dais in their place as the nation's first black president was sworn in.
Dole, more than any other First Lady since Edith Wilson (who screened all matters of state following her husband's incapacitation by a stroke) involved herself with the administration in addition to the traditional roles expected of a First Lady. Serving as both one of her husband's most important advisers and liaison to women's groups across the country, Dole’s outspoken efforts to get Congress to allocate money to help with the fallout from the Kahuta disaster led to her being praised across the political spectrum. This was instrumental in the decision of the American Red Cross to offer her its presidency a year after her husband's defeat in his re-election bid, a role she would fill for almost eight years.
With her status as a former First Lady and on good terms with many in the business community, Dole was an outstanding fundraiser for the organization. With a relatively weak bench in North Carolina, Republican leaders asked Dole to run against incumbent Senator Harvey Gantt in 1996. Moving back to the state for the first time since 1959, the popular former First Lady rode Pete Wilson's coattails to victory, becoming the first female senator from the Tarheel State in the process as well as the first former First Lady to win elected office in her own right.
She was a loyal supporter of the Wilson administration in the Senate and was re-elected to a landslide victory in 2002. Soon afterwards, spurred on by her high name recognition and popularity and former Vice President Lamar Alexander's low numbers in polling match-ups with President Gephardt, Dole threw her hat into the ring for the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2004. A brutal, mudslinging campaign ensued that, among other things, resulted in whispers of marital problems between the former First Couple owing to ex-President Dole's absence from much of the campaign trail due to the grueling schedule being too much for an octogenarian man.
Dole won and ran an unusual general election campaign: picking well-respected moderate South Dakota Senator Larry Pressler as her running mate, then refusing to run to the right to assure conservatives (although she did pledge to continue the crackdown on illegal immigration similarly to former President Wilson's pledge and efforts). The campaign's attempt to play on homophobic and anti-transgender prejudice late in the campaign backfired spectacularly and, alongside the alienation of Hispanics from the Republican ticket continuing from Wilson and the humming economy led to Gephardt winning a comfortable re-election.
Following her defeat, Dole returned to the Senate and was a major sponsor both of the Immigration Reform Act of 2006 and a co-sponsor of the failed attempt at comprehensive energy reform. She opted to retire rather than seek a third term, retiring to Kansas with her husband. With both her husband and former president Bush too frail to travel to Deval Patrick's inauguration, she and Bush's son George W. stood on the dais in their place as the nation's first black president was sworn in.
So if Harvey Gantt was elected to the Senate, does that mean he defeated Jesse Helms in 1990? It would be sweet justice to have a black man kick that racist POS out of office.
It helps that she's in all honesty aged pretty well, considering (and dyes her hair). You wouldn't guess she's 80 from looking at pictures taken of her this year.
And yeah. Pretty sweet career path- not even five years after marriage and she's already in Number One Observatory Circle and by their fifteenth wedding anniversary, she's First Lady. Coincidentally, she and her husband were the first couple to live in Number One Observatory Circle for an extended period, but not the first to move in (that would be the Byrds- Muskie never moved in since he had his own private residence well before it was finished in 1974).
Yes, Gantt took Helms' seat in 1990. It helped that ITTL Gantt had the support of a popular southern Democratic president, especially one who had experience with Helms (from their shared time in the Senate) to back him up with white voters in North Carolina.