A true Axis alliance

So WWII has been done and redone to death. However I don’t remember reading any thread regarding a scenario as the one I’ll describe.

Together with the deal made with SU (yes, the little known RM Pact) Germany makes a deal with Japan: if the Germans are successful in the Western European war theater, the Empire of the Rising Sun will follow the footsteps of Italy and take the chance to grab the Far-East European colonies.

The Japanese doubt the ability of the Germans to beat both France and the UK but plan to it, nevertheless.

Following the demise of the Netherland, Belgium and France the UK stands alone against a Nazi occupied Europe. British energies are stretched to the limit even with the help of the Dominions and the rest of the British Empire.

Summer of 1940, the Battle of England it’s at its height when the Japanese Empire let’s the hammer fall. The Japanese Navy sorties from the Home Islands and, bypassing the Americans holdings in the area, quickly attack the French, British and Holland holdings of SE Asia.

For starters I would like your opinion about two questions:

1 – How ASB is the possibility of such a deal between Germany and Japan being set in place? Please note that if smarter heads were at the driving seat of the Empire of the Rising Sun they would see the advantages of such a move: no direct confrontation – at least not of their initiative – against the USA and the possibility of gaining the so coveted territories full of the raw materials Japan needs against a much weakened oposition.

2 – In such an event how would the US react?
 
ruisramos

I suspect that a real alliance between the two powers would have been highly unlikely.

A coherent drive south by the Japanese in the autumn of 40 would be vastly more dangerous for the allies how. It's unlikely because it means that the dominant political group in Japan, i.e. the army, already heavily tied up in China agrees to transfer of resources for its rival the navy to push south. Also at the time the Japanese had a lot less resources, i.e. none in French Indo-China for instances, which would mean that Britain and the Netherlands would have more time to build up defences in Malaya and Indonesia, although how much material resources they could put into that would be uncertain but probably very limited.

As such, while an unlikely event it would be very, very dangerous for the west.

Since this is in the middle of a US Presidential election and Roosevelt argued on his keeping the US out of the war while his opponent Wilkie, initially more internationalist, was forced by the Republican isolationists into a more hostile stance I doubt America could get a dow at this point. However very difficult to tell for certain.

Steve

So WWII has been done and redone to death. However I don’t remember reading any thread regarding a scenario as the one I’ll describe.

Together with the deal made with SU (yes, the little known RM Pact) Germany makes a deal with Japan: if the Germans are successful in the Western European war theater, the Empire of the Rising Sun will follow the footsteps of Italy and take the chance to grab the Far-East European colonies.

The Japanese doubt the ability of the Germans to beat both France and the UK but plan to it, nevertheless.

Following the demise of the Netherland, Belgium and France the UK stands alone against a Nazi occupied Europe. British energies are stretched to the limit even with the help of the Dominions and the rest of the British Empire.

Summer of 1940, the Battle of England it’s at its height when the Japanese Empire let’s the hammer fall. The Japanese Navy sorties from the Home Islands and, bypassing the Americans holdings in the area, quickly attack the French, British and Holland holdings of SE Asia.

For starters I would like your opinion about two questions:

1 – How ASB is the possibility of such a deal between Germany and Japan being set in place? Please note that if smarter heads were at the driving seat of the Empire of the Rising Sun they would see the advantages of such a move: no direct confrontation – at least not of their initiative – against the USA and the possibility of gaining the so coveted territories full of the raw materials Japan needs against a much weakened oposition.

2 – In such an event how would the US react?
 
Strategically speaking, it's also a lot easier to go through the Philippines than to skirt around it, particularly if you have to capture Vietnam first.
 
The problem with the scenario is that Hitler would never go for it - at least not in 1939.

First, Hitler did not plan for a general war in 1939. He thought that the Molotov-Ribbentropp Pact would mean France and Great Britain would not fight for Poland. Not expecting a general war, he would have no reason to ally with Japan in this way.

Second, Hitler did not plan for a such a long war once he was faced against Britain and France. He thought Britain would make peace once France fell. As such, there is no reason for Japan to attack the Far Eastern colonies.

Third, Hitler thought the British Empire was a stabilizing force in the world and saw the British people as fellow nordics. He did not want to end their empire. Even in 1942 when the situation was much different, and Hitler did welcome Japanese attacks against the British Empire, he was of mixed mind. There is a story that when Singapore fell, Hitler's Generals were all celebrating, and someone noticed the Fuehrer looking diffident. When asked about it, Hitler replied something to the effect of "Yes, this is a great victory. But the white man has now been driven out of Asia. One must look at these things from the perspective of centuries."

Fourth, the problem with a true alliance is that parties need to coordinate their actions which means each party loses a large amount of their freedom. That was very important to Hitler who never wanted to have his own actions constrained. Part of that was the idea that a great power like Germany should always have freedom of action, and a second is that while Hitler had definite goals he worked toward, his command style was very improvisational.

In short, by doing such a thing, Hitler and Japan are making a commitment to destroy the British and French Empires in 1939. While that is what the war actually became (in part), that is a huge leap from what Germany and Japan hoped to do in 1939. Certainly by such a move, Germany knows that it is not possible to end the war by 1940. He has committed Germany to expand Japan's colonial empire for very little benefit to Germany. Any chance for a peace with the West is lost after France falls.

If such a thing happened, there would be very strong consequences.

1) France decides to continue to fight. There is no collaborationist Vichy regime. France fights on from its colonies. The French Fleet fights with the British. As much of the French Army that can be evacuated from France is evacuated. Whatever is left of the French Air Force also leaves. Instead of a collaborationist regime working with Germany, Germany must now occupy all of France and gets little useful cooperation.

2) Assuming Italy has already entered the war at this point, the combined French and British forces quickly push Italy out of Libya and dominate the Mediterranean. With overwhelming naval superiority, the Allies can send a substantial fleet to the Pacific.

3) In Asia, the Nationalist Chinese become an Allied power. Supplies and support flow into China. In 1940, Japan does not control French Indochina. That must be taken before the Japanese could threaten Singapore, Malaya, the Dutch East Indies, or Burma. Without Japanese troops near Thailand, Thailand probably does not ally with Japan. It might even cooperate with the Allies. Invading Hong Kong and conquering Indochina will likely give the Allies several months to prepare defenses elsewhere.

4) The US immediately cuts off all trade with Japan as well as Germany. How prepared are Japan's oil and raw material supplies at this time? How long will it take Japan to conquer the oil wells in the East Indies and get them up and running? The US makes the defenses of the Philippines and its Pacific bases a priority. The Philippines stockpiles supplies to hold out as long as possible, and MacArthur is forced to prepare immediate defenses. Airpower is built up that could threaten Japanese supply lines int he South China Sea. The US is unlikely to declare war, but it will do everything it can to aid the Allies. It will likely bolster its own defense spending much higher than it actually did. Japan and Germany may decide it is better to declare war on the US sooner (when it is least prepared) than later (after it has time to build up). The American oil embargo and build up in the Philippines will especially unnerve Japan.

5) With Japan declaring war, and the Allies quickly gaining control of the Mediterranean, Australia and New Zealand can devote its entire focus in the Pacific. There isn't a need for those troops to defend Egypt. They are quickly brought back.

6) With the Allies defeated in France, but with Germany and Japan committed to a long term war of attrition, Stalin is beaming. His gamble to sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop has paid off. In such a war, Germany is unlikely to invade the USSR and the other great anti-Communist power, Imperial Japan, is in a similar situation. The USSR can sit back and extort whatever it wants from whomever it wants and feel comfortable it can do so because neither side can risk pushing the USSR into the enemy camp.

7) Germany received a lot of valuable supplies from Japan in 1939-1941. It will now lose most of this.
 
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