A Trotsky timeline

POD: march 1921, although the soviets have been defeated at Poland in this TL, they are not suffered so far great losses than in OTL battle of Vistula that see the polish defeated the Red Army, this means that in the Peace of Riga the soviets recognises Poland and in great part his expansion into the east, at the difference of OTL because the soviets are with less casualties, the peace permits the soviets retain the region of Pinsk (more or less the region east of city of Kowno (that is in hands of Poland, in TTL a border city) the polish obtains also Galitzia Oriental and the zone of Vilnius.

This means that Trotsky has not loss so influence because the astounding defeat in OTL, this means that combined with other factors the X Party Congress of march 1921 sees some of the supporters of Trotsky reelected, a thing that not happen in OTL, in TTL Krestinsky, Preobrazensky and Serebryakob between others trotskysts were reelected.

Another POD that I use was a better health situation for Lenin, he is sick and ill, but in TTL better medician help and repose make possible to Lenin live until 1927, in this case it has importance, when in 1922 the question of the nationalities was presented in Soviet Union, Lenin adopted a policy of confronting the policy of centralization advented by Stalin and others, Lenin also send a letter to Trotsky indicating that he wanted that Trotsky and not Stalin assumed the defense of the Georgian nationality cause (IIRC about to let some kind of freedom to nationalities in this case Georgia) before the Central Committe, in OTL Trotsky refused, he has no sufficient base to confront Stalin and also saw Lenin as an ill and sick person that could die in any moment.

In TTL he accepts: with a better position in the Central Committee: roughly 40 % Trotskysts, 45 % Stalin or pro positions of Stalin ,but with the rest indecises, Trotsky takes the defense, he expects that the support of Lenin could give the votes of the indecisses, and ... yes he succeeds.

Lenin like in OTL distrusts Stalin (and also Trotsky although more Stalin than Trotsky) and also he not forgive that Stalin have made use of unpolite words with his wike Krupskaia.

After the success of Trotsky, Stalin begin to have some kind of fear, more because Lenin seems although sick could endure some more years and it is clear that Lenin is beginning to have some kind of many against Stalin.

Stalin knows that time is precious, before Trotsky and allies could strengthen his position in the Central Committee, because the recents political successes of Trotsky, the succesful defense of the Georgian nationalities, and after the support of Lenin as Trotsky as a defender of Lenin position to respect some kind of rights to nationalities.

When Lenin falls in a severe ill in 1924 (but no so severe than in OTL to make him fall die), Stalin thinks that is the moment, he gets a reunion of the Central Committee to talk about the health of Lenin (letting some indirects about the possible mental health of the father of the revolution) and also gets a reunion of the Communist Party in a Congress to discuss this inmediately, when the Congress meets, the positions between Trotsky field and Stalin field are more less equal but with a series of indecises that are not pro-Trotsky or pro-Stalin; Trotsky temper and his weak point: the arrogance and the fact that Stalin has showed clearly his skills of organization seemed but that could make Stalin the candidate elected by the Congress to assume provisionally powers while Lenin is on bed.

Stalin could smile, only that this time is not so easy like in OTL, he even with a situation more favourable for Trotsky is possibily capable to get the power, the fact but that Trotsky have better situation in the Communist Party than in OTL makes possible a lot of debate, even with this Stalin seems have the upper hand, narrowly, but definitevily the upper hand, it is then when a dramatic apparition shows helped by his wife and some other friends, an apparition that demands talk to the Congress: is Lenin.

For Stalin it is the defeat, the Lenin discourse is an authentic accusation to the fact that Stalin not showed respect to Lenin, his wife, the ideals of the Revolution, with the excuse of my illness, he searches only the power, and although Lenin no doubt in saying that Trotsky is not perfect, Stalin has showed also arrogance in his kind of attempt of legal coup.

The Congress votes, and is clear that Stalin proposition of give him provisional powers has failed, worse of all for Stalin is clear that Lenin hates him, fearing of the next movement, he decides to go to Georgia to have some of relax, in fact fleeing.

Trotsky is now supported by Lenin,and after pression from Lenin, Trotsky, Kerstinsky, Ovseyenko and other trotskysts and after Zinoviev and Kamenev decides that is better not support Stalin, it is demanded to Stalin to go from Georgia to Moscow to answer an investigation commission about his attitude.

Stalin refuses to go to Moscow, he fears that this could be the end of him even phisically, an try to rally any support that he could to oppose this measure of investigate him, is then when Frunze and a group of red soldiers under orders of Trotsky and Lenin appears to escort him until Moscow, it is no clear like in these kind of facts what truly happens then, it seems that Stalin tries to flee, in some moment seems that he shots (could be at the air, could be even not shot and is only a Frunze lie) but there was some firefight (Frunze says that some Stalin supporters or bodyguards opposed violenty also to the arrest) in any case in the attempt of flee Stalin is wounded and falls with so disfortune that he opportunely brokes his neck and dies:rolleyes:.
 
trotsky would NEVER trust hitler, even if forced into a realpolitick treaty. WI Russia didn't trust Hitler?
 
Note: this timeline is open to new versions, improvements and added events, I am making some active research about all the aspects of a possible world based in the POD of the former post. Because this, this could be a neverending task (new books that I could read in the future could add or vary some aspects of the timeline, in any case the initial trends will be maintained)

From the death of Lenin to the beginning of the Time of Troubles (1927-1936).

1. Prologue.

After the death of Stalin, apparently the position of Trotsky was on rise, unfortunately for him (and according to the most part of the modern historians fortunately for the Soviet Union and the World) this was lost until certain degree, this was caused in an important part because his own character (some kind of arrogance and autosuficiency were irritating aspects of his personality) and because his stubborn position about the Permanent Revolution and other aspects of the soviet life (like forcing the industrialization even in a ruthless way).

But although these defects could help to understand why the Soviet Union leaded formally by Trotsky was in fact more a the result of a serie of pacts between factions (and Trotsky elected at the end pact with Bukharin faction althoug Zinoviev and Kamenev and their supporters remained the sufficient strong to say that it would be not until the end of the Second Great War -august 1939-march 1945- and the death of Trotsky in 1949 when the army and the NKVD decided to support a candidant of consensus in the person of Sulimov that the power of the named "moderate leftist faction" was totally broken) an important part of reason of this weakening of the position of Trotsky was the attitutde of Lenin.

After the death of Stalin and although Lenin no doubt in praise Trotsky by his position in defense of the valors of the Revolution and against the intended "coup de main" of Stalin, soon Lenin realized that Trotsky theories about permanent Revolution could put on danger the benefits of Rapallo treaty between Germany and the Soviet Union and also the return to relative normality in the diplomatic and economic affairs with the western nations, another fear of Lenin was let the party in the hands of only one man, remembering the Stalin episode, Lenin favoured the mechanisms of collective decision and some kind of equilibrium between three factions:

- Trotsky Faction, leaded by him. Counted as close supporters as men like Ovseyenko and Rakovsky. Partidaries of industrialization and collectivization. they considered also of principal interest the theory of "Permanent Revolution" and the support of Communist insurgence and uprisings.

- Moderate Leftist Faction, leaded by Zinoviev and Kamenev. They counted with the support between others for example of Shlyapnikov and Mevdevev.

- Bukharin faction named also "liberal" "economistic" or "pragamatic". Bukharin faction would have a great paper during the 1930´s in create the economic mechanisms that permitted the Soviet Union confront the german invasion of june 6th 1941, his popularity would be in rise obligating in part Trotsky to pact with him in the aspect of a voluntary collectivization and a gradual industrialization in exchange of support for Permanent Revolution, the failures of trying to follow the Permanent Revolution by Trotsky in Germany and Austria that caused the failed Communist Rebellion of 1933 against the nazis and the 1934-36 Austrian civil War meant to Trotsky a weakening of his prestige and a rise of the prestige of Bukharin, this but at the end not could make fall Trotsky of his position as a leader of the Soviet Union because the support of the Army to Trotsky and because this continued having an important degree of support within the Central Committee (basically the key was the army support, a thing that would make of the Red Army an authentic political power).
 
How does the economy of the Soviet Union develop? Different than under Stalin? Does Trotzky try to incite Communist revolutions in other countries?
 
Er, is that border of Poland you had in mind (the red one, green is more-or-less OTL border)?

skanuj0002b.jpg
 
Originally posted by Max Sinister
How does the economy of the Soviet Union develop? Different than under Stalin? Does Trotzky try to incite Communist revolutions in other countries?

The development of the soviet economy in TTL will differ a lot from OTL.

Because in TTL the Soviet Union although leaded by Trotsky have also other factions that counts with great influence, principally the "pragmatics" under Bukharin although the moderate left leaded by Zinoviev and Kamenev have also importancy, Trotsky is not so ruthless as Stalin, not so paranoid (yes some could say, including Lenin that he is arrogant, too much obstinate but Trotsky has not the mental capacity of not only defeating without scruples the opposition, also anhilate phisically any opposition as Stalin had in OTL) so before an opposition well organized and with important supports within the different organs of the Communist Party, Trotsky have to pact, more on because Trotsky for get the Permanent Revolution he is disposed to make concessions to Bukharin respect to a collectivization voluntary or incentived but not obligated and although he gets an organized industrialization and the subordination of the Trade Unions to the party, the industrialization is gradual and the economic politics respect to the agriculture and the peasants are more or less bukhairinists (surely Trotsky thought that after the triumph of the Permanent Revolution against the rise of nazis or right-wing regimes in Germany and Austria during early 1930´s he would adquire a lot of prestige, the sufficient to abandon the pacts with Bukharin and implement a real collectivization in the agriculture, the failure of the uprisings in Germany and the defeat of the socialists and communists in the Austrian Civil War makes of Bukharin a rising figure controlling in fact the politics about agriculture although Trotsky that counts with the support of the Red Army has the sufficient support within the Communist party to contiue being the leader of the Soviet Union).

So we have that at 1930´s:

- Respect to industrialization the introduction of organized plans to industrialize the Soviet Union, at the difference of Stalin and in concession to the moderate left and Bukharin the industrializatio will be more gradual and flexible than in OTL, there is more decentralization, also another theme is the fact than in TTL in part because Lenin gives Trotsky the task to defend the rights of the nationalities before the Central Committee, Trotsky realize of the importance to have also support in the other republics, a thing also important because although Bukharin could count with support in the Central Committee and other organs of the Communist Party and in republics as Ukraine caused by his not obligated collectivization politics, Trotsky could count with the support of the Communist parties of all the other socialist republics of the Soviet Union, this have the effect that for promoting this support Trotsky have permitted that each republic have his own plan flexibilizing in fact the industrialization of Soviet Union.

- The agriculture will follow a path more or less bukharainist although the acces to the collective farms will be incentived to get the more members possible, also the peasants will count with state help to better his position and production with the introduction of tractors and better tools, in fact there will not famine in TTL and no massive destruction of the peasant class, they will be convert because the measures in allies of the state not in slaves of the state (and this will have the direct consecuence to better the production producing excedents to export principally cereals, the soviet agriculture in TTL never will suffer the stigma of the destruction of the peasants structure and the practical aninhilation of great part of his members.

- Consecuences: a not so massive industrialization but a better situation in the agricultural field, also the Soviet Union has more inhabitants than in OTL apart of the six-seven millions of deaths in Ukraine and other regions because the famine cause by the forced collectivization, we have to count the other deaths caused by massive purges, the fact that all the prisoners in gulags, the millions of deaths, and naturally an ambient that was not the better for marriage and have children (if you are fighting for the feed yourself you don´t have too much time to produce children and Why children? to let him die of famine or in a purge?), in total more or less the Soviet Union of 1941 before the german attack have 10 millions more of inhabitants.


Trotsky need to make pacts leaded to a more or less moderate politic in 1927-1932 (also the will of Lenin died in march 1927 to collective decissions is some kind of invisible rule that ease this pactism) there was a moderate view respect to Europe: communist parties were founded and supported, but there was not a movement to try to support massive uprisings, while this happened in Europe, there was a far more support to anticolonialist movements than in OTL, practically in this aspect Trotsky try not only supporting communist parties like in China, also accepted some kind of alliances like with Kuomintang although with the view in the future to infiltrate these alliances to make the communists gain the upper hand in this kind of coalitions (from support of afroasiatism to panarabism like supporting palestinian politic Abd-Al-Hadi, support in creation of communist parties in different parts of the colonial world like Indochina or India, or supporting pure nationalist anticolonialist parties although with the aim or making these at the end communists in all except in the name like the Nationalistic party of Sukarno or supporting men like the Manchurian warlord Chang Tso-lin against the potencial enemy in the Far East: Japan...).

Finally the rise of nazis during the elections of 1932, ironically the propaganda of Permanent Revolution and the fears about the importance of KPD makes possible in TTl an earlier take of the power for the nazi party while in OTL in november 1932 would be Schleicher who get briefly being prime minister, in TTL would be Hitler, while in OTL the november elections see Hitler having two millions of votes less than in july, in TTL the tendence was for a large raise, in total while after november elections in OTL 33,6 % of the deputies in the Reichstag were nazis in TTL the percentage were of the 40,5 %.

This provoked a sudden reaction by part of Trotsky and his supporters, the democracy had failed totally and now the fascists were in rise so it was the hour of the Permanent Revolution, after gaining the support of Bukharin after more concessions respect to the economics policy, Trotsky call to the Revolution to the workers of Germany while contacts from NKVD and from the army prepared to pass weapons to the german uprising, the result was the Communist rebellion of 1933, a total failure that only served to strengthen the power of the nazis and makes of these very attractive not only for the Reichswehr and the german industrials also for moderate goverments and democracies like United Kingdom the nazis were seen in all case as a minor evil compared with the Soviet Union, the Austrian civil war caused by the Permanent Revolution was another spectacular failure, that not only weaken the position of Trotsky within the Soviet Union, also mades of the 1930´s a very happy epoque for the nazis with only France and Italy through Barthou obstinate view as nazis not the minor evil if not an evil so great as the soviets and the suspicaces of Mussoline the only two nations to attempt to stop the nazi rising.

To add more: all the historians of TTL says that the principal cause of the failure of the Barthou politics of isolating Germany was caused by the madness of the Permanent Revolution of Trotsky during the period of 1933-36, the chain of events is known for all : Failure of the Communist Rebellion of 1933 in Germany- total powers for Hitler in 1933 - Austrian civil war of 1934-36 caused by uprising of socialists and communists with a civil war in three sides: the govermment supported by Italy, the nazis with clear strongholds in the western Austria supported by Germany an socialists and communists supported by the Soviet Union - Defeat of socialists and communists and referendum in november of 1936 in favour of union with Germany - occupation of Rhineland in november 1936 with France intervention but the opposition of the United Kingdom caused a french retreat with some kind of pact to save the face of the french, there would be a demilitarized zone within the Rhineland of 10 km but all the rest of Rhineland were another time occupied by the germans- Czech war of september-october 1938 wit total defeat for the czechs and the french failure to mobilize quickly and make some kind of true offensive - annexion of all Czechoslovakia in january 1939 after promises of respect the existence of a czech rump state, this combined with the fact that the Soviet Union was not seen in that moment as so dangerous as Hitler Germany prompted a British declaration against this act and searching for a new entente with France- to counter this Hitler pacted in april 1939 with a Mussolini, sick of seeing so great inconsistence and incoherence of a true politic against Hitler, a pact of neutrality and mutual acknowledgment of the respective zone of the influences in Europe, letting the Balkans a possible field for the Italians while the rest of Eastern Europe would be a field for the germans- final pact of alliance between France, United Kingdom and Poland in june 1939, Germany reivindications of polish territory begin a crisis at 2nd july and the poles begin to mobilize totally at 1st august with the war beginning at 4 august.
 
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Originally posted by Tizoc
Er, is that border of Poland you had in mind (the red one, green is more-or-less OTL border)?

Yes, more or less is correct, the only change that I would make to the map would be that respect Lithuania the Poland of TTL follows the same border than in OTL, so the chunk of Lithuania included within Poland according the border of the red line should continue being lithuanian, in all the rest of the drawing of the border I think is correct.
 
From the death of Lenin to the beginning of the Time of Troubles (1927-1936).

2. Equilibrium 1927-1932.

As explained before three factions were presented at the moment of the death of Lenin, with the clear last will of Lenin to work all joint in the way to the socialism, there was an uneasy peace between these three factions, although Trotsky was named the succesor of Lenin and the First Secretary of Communist Party, his situation was more of a primus inter pares than other thing (1).

Some of the most clear supporters of Stalin like Gregory Ordzhonikidze and Genrikh Yagoda was purged from his posts and responsabilities in the soviet political life, but with the exception of Stalin all this initial purge made during Lenin life was without deaths, in fact more interesting was the recuperation of some stalinist figures within the Communist party after the death of Lenin as some of the factions tried to get support and new minds from some old stalinists, this was the case of Sergei Kirov that joint Bukharin faction, and Voroshilov that subordinated to Tujachevsky would get an interesting career as commander of the Soviet Volunteer Ukrainian Militia during the Second Great War.

All these moves and the struggle for know exactly what politics would follow the Soviet Union would mark practically all the late 1920´s and early 1930´s.

Clearly but this period that the historians named equilibrium had could be the beginning of certain hegemony by part of Trotsky and allies if Trotsky had not been so obsessive with the permanent Revolution, although the work of Komintern and communist parties of around the world could be considered moderate respect to being revolutionaries, Trotsky pushed to get a more active paper of Communist parties within coalitions against conservatives and parafascists governments, this too much prosaic attempts of get the hegemony within these coalions had a great bad effect in China where Chiang Kai Shek followed in 1928-1930 a campaign of war aginst the old communist allies, a campaign that the discourses of Trotsky made easy for Chiang to present this as legitime defense against a communist plot to convert the Kuomintang in a mere puppet of the Communist Party, this disaster at China meant an important blow against Trotsky that was criticised by Bukharin and Zinoviev factions as making an unrealistic politic and knowing little of the realities of the world.

These little pragmatic politics and stubborn position of Trotsky respect to Permanent Revolution were tempered by a moderate position in the ecomics when Trotsky had to pact with Bukharin respect to the Economic Plans to get support from Bukharin for a position of searching to expand the politic influence of Soviet Union in the world (2).

Although pacting with Bukharin in the economics and the first failure of attempting an agressive politic in the World, slowly Trotsky began to get some more power, for example the death of Dzerzhinsky in 1930 permitted Trotsky to put a close supporter and friend at the head of the NKVD in the person of Antonov-Ovseenko.

Little to little it seemed that although Trotsky was more following an hybrid of Bukharin-Trotsky politics in the economic field (specially in the agriculture) the future seemed that Trotsky would get a definitve strongest position in some point of early-mid 1930´s.

The rise of nazi party in Germany and the measures against him made by Trotsky but will ruin the Trotsky possibilities to get the hegemony, another time the arrogance and obssesion of Trotsky in revolutionaries policies would menace his position within the Soviet Union.

(1): It is interesting that although the obsession of Trotsky was the permanent revolution, and so the use of the force of the weapons to try to expand the revolution or counterattack the fascist-conservative rising in the World, he never thought in use the Soviet Army to impose his will over the other members of the Party, even when clearly with some exceptions like Frunze that supported the faction of Zinoviev and Kamenev, practically all the oficiality and commanders of army and air force (and in part also the navy) considered Trotsky as one of their own, from Tujachevsky to Uborevich, Jan Alaknis, Lapchinsky and others practically all had obeyed a leaded coup d´etat of Trotsky to get the absolute power, he never try it, although arrogant and obssesive, Trotsky considered ever that the way to get hegemony within of the Soviet Union would be through dialectical-political fight within the organisms of the Soviet Communist Party.

(2): After the failure of China, Trotsky pacted with Bukharin an agressive foreign politic in exchange of a moderate view in the economics (voluntary although incentived collectivization -so survival of a peasant population not collectivized, this was rewarded with a great gricultural production during 1930´s and signifiant revenues from being one of the great exportators of cereals, the effects of this would be also seen when the ukrainian peasants east of Dnieper help a lot to form a resistance movement in Ukraine after the fall of an important part of Ukraine east of Kiev during the german offensive of spring 1942- a gradual industrialization that also would saw development of a light industry and for made happy the army although the military industry would not be so massive as in OTL, it would be far better technically and technologically prepared for supply a modern army). We should not confund the first initial attempt of some kind of Permanent Revolution attempting the hegemony in China with these agressive external politics pacted with Bukharin, it would be more a conventional search of alliances, this would see a diplomatic victory when in 1930 the ruler of Manchuria Tchang Tso Lin signed a military pact with the Soviet Union and with the diplomatic support to the failed republican uprising in Spain in april-june 1931 and the support to the Spain Republic in 1932-36.
 
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