A Timeline for Xen

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Here's how the Ottoman Empire could collapse...

The House of Osman dies out. Considering how many there actually were (gotta love polygamy for generating dozens of heirs), something like this would be truly mind-bogglingly difficult to pull off, but if it happened, what will hold the Ottoman Empire together?

I know the Giray Khans of Crimea were supposed to take over if the House of Osman failed, but what if one of them can't be found either?

You know what? Even though I hate you, I have to admit that is actually very workable.

There was only one time where this could happen, 1808. Mahmud II was left as the only surviving male of the dynasty, and didn't have a son that survived infancy until 1823; there is no such thing as regency in the Ottoman Empire, so you'd hace to be around 15 or so to become Sultan, so the House of Osman was hanging by a thread forr about 20 years. to illustrate how deadly harem competition could be, Mahmud II had 22 sons, only TWO of which survived infancy. The girls did slightly better, 5 of 22 surviving. Yeouch.

I don't hate you, BTW.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

They also lost to Japan, so nobody is going to call them invicible.

Other than navally, they were not DEFEATED by Japan. The Russians still had some oomph left in them, the Japanese did not.

 

[MerryPrankster]

You know what? Even though I hate you, I have to admit that is actually very workable.

There was only one time where this could happen, 1808. Mahmud II was left as the only surviving male of the dynasty, and didn't have a son that survived infancy until 1823; there is no such thing as regency in the Ottoman Empire, so you'd hace to be around 15 or so to become Sultan, so the House of Osman was hanging by a thread forr about 20 years. to illustrate how deadly harem competition could be, Mahmud II had 22 sons, only TWO of which survived infancy. The girls did slightly better, 5 of 22 surviving. Yeouch.

I don't hate you, BTW.

Ah. Now, how can we get something like this to happen in TTL's 1917?

Hmm...at any point, were all or most of the House of Osman in one place? Perhaps it could be bombed by one of the warring sides, or the place is stormed by assassins and massacred "Godfather"-style.

Perhaps as a butterfly from the POD, the Assassins are revived and they spend the next several decades plotting to seize control of the Ottoman Empire by wiping out the ruling dynasty (except for perhaps an Osmanli who is himself an Assassin).

However, things dont go according to plan, and all the Osmanlis die. Oops.

Unless you want the neo-Assassins to be TTL's equivlaent of al-Qaeda, that scenario is too complex to really work. A simpler scenario would be a repeat of the Mahmud II situation--perhaps the Sultan in question is impotent (or to make it more interesting, is infertile--he keeps acquiring more and more wives and concubines, but nothing works out).

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Unfortunately, no. Mahmud II's successor Abdul Mecid was the biggest horndog in human history, having fathered 47 children even though he died at age 38, eight sons and eight daughters surviving. Four of his sons became Sultans, and all of them had boatloads of children. By 1860 or so there were so many Osmanlis that the extinction of the dynasty was nigh impossible.

I think your assassin scenario might be a tad carried away, don't you think?

Ah. Now, how can we get something like this to happen in TTL's 1917?

Hmm...at any point, were all or most of the House of Osman in one place? Perhaps it could be bombed by one of the warring sides, or the place is stormed by assassins and massacred "Godfather"-style.

Perhaps as a butterfly from the POD, the Assassins are revived and they spend the next several decades plotting to seize control of the Ottoman Empire by wiping out the ruling dynasty (except for perhaps an Osmanli who is himself an Assassin).

However, things dont go according to plan, and all the Osmanlis die. Oops.

Unless you want the neo-Assassins to be TTL's equivlaent of al-Qaeda, that scenario is too complex to really work. A simpler scenario would be a repeat of the Mahmud II situation--perhaps the Sultan in question is impotent (or to make it more interesting, is infertile--he keeps acquiring more and more wives and concubines, but nothing works out).

 

[MerryPrankster]

Unfortunately, no. Mahmud II's successor Abdul Mecid was the biggest horndog in human history, having fathered 47 children even though he died at age 38, eight sons and eight daughters surviving. Four of his sons became Sultans, and all of them had boatloads of children. By 1860 or so there were so many Osmanlis that the extinction of the dynasty was nigh impossible.

I think your assassin scenario might be a tad carried away, don't you think?

That's why I figured it wouldn't work--too big and complex, even if "Dune"-style massive conspiracies that take decades if not centuries to come to fruition are really cool.

Perhaps the number of Osmanlis could be reduced somehow (a plague in Istanbul?) and there's a dynastic fight amongst the survivors. Perhaps one of the younger heirs goes on some crazy religious kick and thinks God wants him, not his older brother, to become Sultan. If the older brother is a real jerk and has alienated much of the population, that might work.

 

[Othniel]

Other than navally, they were not DEFEATED by Japan. The Russians still had some oomph left in them, the Japanese did not.

I still blame Russia for the rise of Japan.

 

[Diamond]

Thank you for providing some constructive criticism.

Well erm.. you need more description about what this Social-Monarchism is... I tend to read it as where large social groups, probably of the working class get behind the Monarch. This makes some vague sence in the description of Germany you mention, but how can a Social-Monarchist go to be Neo-Colonial?

You're right; if I planned to develop this idea at some point (and Xen didn't mind), I'd definitely go into more detail.

The vast majority of Colonial positions are not held by any people of the working classes who are presumerably so important to this Social-Monarchist movement. Empire has largely been the preserve of rich people with the money to invest after all.

My thought was that the 'social-monarchist philosophy' - whatever it actually happens to be - undergoes a schism rather like communism and 'true' socialism developing along separate paths. The French version would be set up to use the assets and talents of the people, based on merit, not social standing, to carry out the King's wishes. The German version, on the other hand, would say that the nobility exists to further the common good of the people. I dunno; just random thoughts.

Otherwise it starts well.. then seems to drift a bit towards the end. Japan invades the Philipines (which are presumerably independant by 1956 if the US took them in the first place), so the US promptly launches a total war which culminates with a massive invasion of the mainland.. Er.. how on earth is that going to get sold to the people. I highly doubt India would get involved since they have no real benefit in getting involved and are probably quite isolationist.

Yup, it's kind of brief at the end. I realized I was starting to write a full-on TL instead of just giving Xen an idea on possible ways he might go, and decided I'd better leave well enough alone. Again, I probably actually wouldn't have had the US and Japan go to war, especially since Xen describes the US as being even more isolationist than OTL, but I'm just trying to stick to his outline.

Theres also a question how Russia is both incredibly weak but manages to fight on for 4 years, presumerably with a pitiful industry and thus army which is almost completely incapable of offensive military operations. How it manages to supply the vast amount of revenue required for a successful Indian Mutiny is also.. in question. (Whether India be more demanding of freedom or less so in this TL is debatable I suppose...)

I thought I had made it clear that the Czar had been building up his industrial base for several years before-hand. You're right though; they probably would've caved in less than four years. The only reason I had them holding out that long was due to the sheer geographical distances involved. The Russians could afford to retreat and retreat, bleeding the Brits and Germans dry.

As for the Mutiny, I was less than clear. It did NOT succeed, but it scared the British so badly that they eventually granted India its freedom, while ensuring that the government was friendly towards them, so that they could retain their trading rights and perhaps some port cities.

I also reckon an invasion from Alaska to Siberia is doomed to failure.. but otherwise its largely fine beyond a few questions about those later wars

I think a trans-Bering invasion would be incredibly difficult, but not impossible. Again, I didn't go into much detail, but the US I envisaged in this TL doesn't have a very strong navy; instead, they have powerful land forces, honed from fighting a series of wars in central america.

I also didn't go into any nuclear programs, once again because Xen didn't really specify if there were any.