This is a new version of my very bad TL, A Time for Peace. In this, the POD is that Johnson continues Kennedy's policies of pullout. The pullout finishes in late 1964, and so Johnson also has much more time to do more Great Society stuff. And it will be written like TNF's "6th Party System" or Jay Roosevelt's 2012-2052 TL. I will only really write in detail about the elections, and I will include midterms.
Please comment! And this may be unrealistic, but if it is, say why, and what would be more realistic.
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1968: ’64 All Over Again?
Going into the 1968 Presidential Election, Lyndon Johnson looked like he would easily win a third term. He was an effective President; the Great Society had worked incredibly well, things looked good. And the Republicans had no idea who to nominate to challenge him. William Scranton, the former Pennsylvania Governor, was the first to announce his intentions. Scranton had tried and failed to stage a coup at the 1964 Convention and take the nomination, but was stopped by Barry Goldwater. There was some speculation about a Goldwater run, but after the landslide victory by Johnson in ‘64, he wouldn’t have had much of a chance. John Tower of Texas ran, as the conservative alternative to the centrist Scranton. Senator Paul Fannin ran as well, and looked to have a better chance than Tower, albeit not by much. Robert Smylie of Idaho, in April 1967, said he would not run. Senator Jacob Javits, of New York, did. So did the liberal Republican Mark Hatfield, of Oregon. In August 1967, this was the national polling:
Governor William Scranton: 32%
Senator Paul Fannin: 17%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 11%
Senator Jacob Javits: 9%
Senator John Tower: 5%
Undecided/Other: 26%
And for the all-important New Hampshire Primary:
Governor William Scranton: 31%
Senator Jacob Javits: 18%
Senator Paul Fannin: 12%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 9%
Senator John Tower: 3%
Undecided/Other: 27%
Basically, Scranton had a lead, and quite a big one. Hatfield, a compelling candidate in his own right, suffered because of vote-splitting with him, as did Javits. Fannin was in second nationally, if only because he and Tower were the two main conservatives in the race, and Tower had no chance.
Tower, having no chance, dropped out in October, while Hatfield went on the offensive. He put out ads touting his record as Governor, while attacking Fannin as “Barry Goldwater incarnate come to lose in another landslide”. By November, this was reflected in the polling:
Governor William Scranton: 27%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 22%
Senator Paul Fannin: 16%
Senator Jacob Javits: 4%
Undecided/Other: 31%
And in New Hampshire:
Governor William Scranton: 22%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 20%
Senator Paul Fannin: 18%
Senator Jacob Javits: 10%
Undecided/Other: 30%
Disheartened by his downswing, Javits dropped out of the race on November 28, to focus on Senate re-election. In December, another important thing in that campaign happened: Nelson Rockefeller endorsed Hatfield. This gave Hatfield another boost. In February, Hatfield had a lead nationally, and was a percentage point ahead in New Hampshire.
March 12, 1968. The New Hampshire Primary. Scranton won, with 36%, compared to 34% for Hatfield, and 27% for Fannin.
On April 2, Hatfield won Wisconsin.
On April 23, Scranton won Pennsylvania.
On April 30, Hatfield won Massachusetts.
On May 7, Fannin won Indiana, Hatfield won Ohio in a surprise, and takes DC as well.
On May 14, Fannin won Nebraska and West Virginia.
It was around this time that Hatfield really stepped up his game. More ads, more campaigning, especially in Florida. Scranton was losing nationally, but would he win the nomination anyway? And what of Fannin?
On May 28, Hatfield won Florida and Oregon.
On June 4, Hatfield won California. Scranton won New Jersey and South Dakota.
On June 11, Hatfield won Illinois.
The Convention was deadlocked. On the first ballot, Hatfield led with 578 delegates. Scranton had 427, and Fannin had 301, with the rest going to minor candidates. They each gave speeches, telling the delegates to vote for them.
Hatfield: “I’m a progressive. My record as Governor shows that. I was a great Governor. I have the skills to lead our party in the right direction and to beat Lyndon Johnson!”
Fannin: “We need to embrace our conservatism. We are, and should be, the conservative party in America. What’s the use of electing a liberal like Hatfield, or Scranton, who will be just like Johnson?”
Scranton: “I don’t deny that I’m on the left of this party. But I’m on Senator Hatfield’s right, I’m on Senator Fannin’s left. And I promise you that I will not be “just like Johnson”. I am a true Republican, and I believe that this entire party can coalesce around me!”
Scranton won some delegates after that, even though it was incredibly egotistical, going up to 504. But the Convention was still deadlocked. Scranton wanted a way out of this. He approached Fannin, and the two made a deal (which both regretted later) to give Scranton the nomination in return for the VP slot. And so the Republican nominee was picked, with barely the majority. The receptions to the speeches by both candidates were lukewarm at best, and the convention bump was almost non-existent.
In the end, this convention drama, coupled with Johnson’s popularity, led to a big Johnson lead coming out of the convention. Scranton did campaign as a pro-civil rights moderate, which helped him some, but a bad performance at the debates, along with conservatives being turned off by that, hurt him just as much.
The conservatives in the party being mad came to a head, when right after the convention, Barry Goldwater announced an Independent bid for President. “The Republican Party nominated a liberal, and I want to give voters a real, non-racist, conservative alternative,” he said, with a reference to George Wallace. He worked to get on the ballot, and eventually did, in all 50 states. He was endorsed by John Tower, and many prominent conservatives.
And then Paul Fannin. Fannin endorsed Goldwater, dropped himself from Scranton’s ticket, and wouldn’t talk to the press. Scranton picked Howard Baker as his new running mate.
Really, it was impossible to overcome Johnson. He won re-election overwhelmingly.
Johnson was pushed over the edge in many states by Wallace and Goldwater. So much vote-splitting worked out incredibly well.