A Time for Peace, Version 2.0

This is a new version of my very bad TL, A Time for Peace. In this, the POD is that Johnson continues Kennedy's policies of pullout. The pullout finishes in late 1964, and so Johnson also has much more time to do more Great Society stuff. And it will be written like TNF's "6th Party System" or Jay Roosevelt's 2012-2052 TL. I will only really write in detail about the elections, and I will include midterms.

Please comment! And this may be unrealistic, but if it is, say why, and what would be more realistic.
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1968: ’64 All Over Again?​
Going into the 1968 Presidential Election, Lyndon Johnson looked like he would easily win a third term. He was an effective President; the Great Society had worked incredibly well, things looked good. And the Republicans had no idea who to nominate to challenge him. William Scranton, the former Pennsylvania Governor, was the first to announce his intentions. Scranton had tried and failed to stage a coup at the 1964 Convention and take the nomination, but was stopped by Barry Goldwater. There was some speculation about a Goldwater run, but after the landslide victory by Johnson in ‘64, he wouldn’t have had much of a chance. John Tower of Texas ran, as the conservative alternative to the centrist Scranton. Senator Paul Fannin ran as well, and looked to have a better chance than Tower, albeit not by much. Robert Smylie of Idaho, in April 1967, said he would not run. Senator Jacob Javits, of New York, did. So did the liberal Republican Mark Hatfield, of Oregon. In August 1967, this was the national polling:

Governor William Scranton: 32%
Senator Paul Fannin: 17%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 11%
Senator Jacob Javits: 9%
Senator John Tower: 5%
Undecided/Other: 26%

And for the all-important New Hampshire Primary:

Governor William Scranton: 31%
Senator Jacob Javits: 18%
Senator Paul Fannin: 12%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 9%
Senator John Tower: 3%
Undecided/Other: 27%

Basically, Scranton had a lead, and quite a big one. Hatfield, a compelling candidate in his own right, suffered because of vote-splitting with him, as did Javits. Fannin was in second nationally, if only because he and Tower were the two main conservatives in the race, and Tower had no chance.

Tower, having no chance, dropped out in October, while Hatfield went on the offensive. He put out ads touting his record as Governor, while attacking Fannin as “Barry Goldwater incarnate come to lose in another landslide”. By November, this was reflected in the polling:

Governor William Scranton: 27%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 22%
Senator Paul Fannin: 16%
Senator Jacob Javits: 4%
Undecided/Other: 31%

And in New Hampshire:

Governor William Scranton: 22%
Senator Mark Hatfield: 20%
Senator Paul Fannin: 18%
Senator Jacob Javits: 10%
Undecided/Other: 30%

Disheartened by his downswing, Javits dropped out of the race on November 28, to focus on Senate re-election. In December, another important thing in that campaign happened: Nelson Rockefeller endorsed Hatfield. This gave Hatfield another boost. In February, Hatfield had a lead nationally, and was a percentage point ahead in New Hampshire.

March 12, 1968. The New Hampshire Primary. Scranton won, with 36%, compared to 34% for Hatfield, and 27% for Fannin.

On April 2, Hatfield won Wisconsin.

On April 23, Scranton won Pennsylvania.

On April 30, Hatfield won Massachusetts.

On May 7, Fannin won Indiana, Hatfield won Ohio in a surprise, and takes DC as well.

On May 14, Fannin won Nebraska and West Virginia.

It was around this time that Hatfield really stepped up his game. More ads, more campaigning, especially in Florida. Scranton was losing nationally, but would he win the nomination anyway? And what of Fannin?

On May 28, Hatfield won Florida and Oregon.

On June 4, Hatfield won California. Scranton won New Jersey and South Dakota.

On June 11, Hatfield won Illinois.

The Convention was deadlocked. On the first ballot, Hatfield led with 578 delegates. Scranton had 427, and Fannin had 301, with the rest going to minor candidates. They each gave speeches, telling the delegates to vote for them.

Hatfield: “I’m a progressive. My record as Governor shows that. I was a great Governor. I have the skills to lead our party in the right direction and to beat Lyndon Johnson!”

Fannin: “We need to embrace our conservatism. We are, and should be, the conservative party in America. What’s the use of electing a liberal like Hatfield, or Scranton, who will be just like Johnson?”

Scranton: “I don’t deny that I’m on the left of this party. But I’m on Senator Hatfield’s right, I’m on Senator Fannin’s left. And I promise you that I will not be “just like Johnson”. I am a true Republican, and I believe that this entire party can coalesce around me!”

Scranton won some delegates after that, even though it was incredibly egotistical, going up to 504. But the Convention was still deadlocked. Scranton wanted a way out of this. He approached Fannin, and the two made a deal (which both regretted later) to give Scranton the nomination in return for the VP slot. And so the Republican nominee was picked, with barely the majority. The receptions to the speeches by both candidates were lukewarm at best, and the convention bump was almost non-existent.

In the end, this convention drama, coupled with Johnson’s popularity, led to a big Johnson lead coming out of the convention. Scranton did campaign as a pro-civil rights moderate, which helped him some, but a bad performance at the debates, along with conservatives being turned off by that, hurt him just as much.

The conservatives in the party being mad came to a head, when right after the convention, Barry Goldwater announced an Independent bid for President. “The Republican Party nominated a liberal, and I want to give voters a real, non-racist, conservative alternative,” he said, with a reference to George Wallace. He worked to get on the ballot, and eventually did, in all 50 states. He was endorsed by John Tower, and many prominent conservatives.

And then Paul Fannin. Fannin endorsed Goldwater, dropped himself from Scranton’s ticket, and wouldn’t talk to the press. Scranton picked Howard Baker as his new running mate.

Really, it was impossible to overcome Johnson. He won re-election overwhelmingly.
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Johnson was pushed over the edge in many states by Wallace and Goldwater. So much vote-splitting worked out incredibly well.
 
Who was Goldwater's running mate? Ronald Reagan (doubt it- he's a shoe-in for the Republican nomination and election in 1972)? John Ashbrook? John Wayne (possible- was offered the VP slot by Wallace historically, but rejected it because of racism. In fact, any of Wallace's offers to be his running mate could be in play for Goldwater).

Did the man form a party around his run? Maybe a precursor the Libertarians? Does his son still get elected to Congress?
 
Who was Goldwater's running mate? Ronald Reagan (doubt it- he's a shoe-in for the Republican nomination and election in 1972)? John Ashbrook? John Wayne (possible- was offered the VP slot by Wallace historically, but rejected it because of racism. In fact, any of Wallace's offers to be his running mate could be in play for Goldwater).

Did the man form a party around his run? Maybe a precursor the Libertarians? Does his son still get elected to Congress?

Running mate: It's like Eugene McCarthy '76. For the most part, he didn't have one.

No party, just Independent.

He probably will, but a term later than OTL.

Other than that, what did you think?
 
Here's the '72 crop, as I've decided not to do midterms:

1972: Can the Democrats Win for the Fourth Time in a Row?

In early-to-mid 1972, after Vice President Humphrey announced that he would be retiring indefinitely, the Democratic field had fifteen candidates, as did the Republican field. On both sides, four tiers of candidates appeared.

Democrats
Frontrunners
Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY) -- The brother of the former President had been a leading liberal in the Senate.
Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME) -- The Maine Senator had been gearing up for this race since at least 1969 or 1970.
People with a good chance, but currently trailing
Senator Henry M. Jackson (D-WA) -- The hawkish Washington Senator was a leading opponent of Johnson’s and Kennedy’s withdrawal from Vietnam.
Fmr. Governor George Wallace (D-AL) -- The ardent segregationist and Alabama Governor offered an option to the disaffected Southern Conservative voters.
Fmr. Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC) -- Sanford, a liberal Southern Democrat, stressed his record of integration and “change”.
Dark Horse candidates with a chance
Senator William Proxmire (D-WI) -- Proxmire was popular among liberals, and, though he lacked the appeal level of Bobby Kennedy, he still seemed to have a good chance.
Senator Harold Hughes (D-IA) -- The prairie liberal Senator looked to win his biggest race ever.
Senator Ralph Yarborough (D-TX) -- The aging Texas Senator, beloved by the left wing of his party, didn’t look like he’d win, but could, and because of his Johnson connections, he’d do well.
Governor John McKeithen (D-LA) -- The moderate Dixiecrat (oxymoron?) was hoping to appeal to the South, along with some Northern voters, by positioning himself to the left of Wallace, and to the right of everyone else, except for Connally.
Fmr. Governor John Connally (D-TX) -- Another candidate with Johnson connections, Connally hoped to represent the right wing of the party, without being as extreme as Wallace.
Very Dark Horses
Senator Thomas Eagleton (D-MO) -- Eagleton was another liberal, who, though liked by some, didn’t appear to have much of a chance.
Senator Fred Harris (D-OK) -- Harris was another liberal who hoped to continue the Johnson Administration’s programs.
Senator George McGovern (D-SD) -- McGovern, possibly the most left-wing candidate, started out polling in single digits, near the bottom.
Senator Eugene McCarthy (D-MN) -- Yet another liberal Senator with had no chance whatsoever at being elected.
Fmr. Governor Philip Hoff (D-VT) -- Hoff, who was the first Democratic Vermont Governor in over a hundred years, was very liberal.

Republicans
Frontrunners
Senator Mark Hatfield (R-OR) -- The person with the most delegates and the winner of the popular vote in 1968.
Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA) -- The leader of the conservatives in the party.
Fmr. Governor George Romney (R-MI) -- A more liberal Republican.
People with a good chance, but currently trailing
Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA) -- A Rockefeller Republican.
Senator Edward Brooke (R-MA) -- Another Rockefeller Republican, elected in the typically Democratic state of Massachusetts.
Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) -- The Kansas Senator was viewed as a potential compromise candidate.
Senator Charles Percy (R-IL) -- Another Rockefeller Republican.
Dark Horse candidates with a chance
Senator Clifford Case (R-NJ) -- An aging liberal.
Governor Stanley K. Hathaway (R-WY) -- A successful Governor who hoped to translate that into a successful Presidential run.
Fmr. Governor Paul Laxalt (R-NV) -- A conservative Western Governor.
Fmr. Governor Winthrop Rockefeller (R-AR) -- A progressive-minded brother of Nelson who was the integrator of Arkansas.
Very Dark Horses
Governor Francis Sargent (R-MA) -- Another Massachusetts liberal Republican.
Governor Daniel J. Evans (R-WA) -- A Rockefeller Republican.
Fmr. Governor Jim Rhodes (R-OH) -- A conservative Governor.
Fmr. Governor Raymond Shafer (R-PA) -- Bill Scranton’s successor.
 
Where's Nixon in all of this? He may not win in 1972, but I thought his name might have cropped up...

Well, if he decided to run, he'd be sort of perfect for this. Also, it would have been twelve years since he'd held any political office. There will be a serious "Draft Nixon" movement, though.
 
I think Nixon would decide to run here. Even if he sits out 1968 (which is probabal in a scenario where Jonson withdraws from Vietnam/remains popular), he'd be thinking about running in 1972, which would be a year at least favouring the GOP after 12 years of democratic rule.

Even if Nixon can't win the nomination, he'd put himself forward in an "I'm not finished yet" gesture, perhaps with the hope of being named Secretary of State in the cabinet of whoever wins the nomination.
 
Aside from the Nixon point btw, I'm enjoying this TL (I've wanted to see how a scenario where LBJ remains in office for longer pans out for a while now, so hope you keep this up!).
 
Aside from the Nixon point btw, I'm enjoying this TL (I've wanted to see how a scenario where LBJ remains in office for longer pans out for a while now, so hope you keep this up!).

This one will be pretty much just Presidential elections. There will, of course, be many things about the terms of Presidents implied.

Edit: Also, Nixon will be involved, in a way i think makes more sense. Next update tomorrow, if not tonight.
 
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Early Drop-Outs

As expected, thirty candidates was not sustainable, by October, these people had dropped out.

Democrats:

Eugene McCarthy: Endorsed Hoff
George McGovern: Endorsed Hoff
Fred Harris: Endorsed Eagleton
Ralph Yarborough: Had heart attack, endorsed Kennedy
John McKeithen: Endorsed Connally
Harold Hughes: Endorsed Eagleton

Republicans:

Raymond Shafer: Endorsed Percy
Francis Sargent: Endorsed Brooke
Daniel Evans: Endorsed Hatfield
Jim Rhodes: Endorsed Reagan
Clifford Case: Endorsed Romney
Paul Laxalt: Endorsed Reagan

Polling, 27 October 1971:

Democrats:

Robert Kennedy: 18%
Terry Sanford: 13%
Henry M. Jackson: 10%
Edmund Muskie: 9%
George Wallace: 9%
John Connally: 7%
Philip Hoff: 7%
William Proxmire: 5%
Tom Eagleton: 4%
Undecided: 18%

Republicans:

Ronald Reagan: 15%
Mark Hatfield: 15%
Bob Dole: 11%
Charles Percy: 10%
George Romney: 10%
Edward Brooke: 8%
Stanley K. Hathaway: 7%
Winthrop Rockefeller: 5%
Richard Schweiker: 4%
Undecided: 15%

Hoff was (sort of) surging, and he was definitely a serious candidate.

In November, Rockefeller and Eagleton dropped out, endorsing Hatfield and Hoff, respectively. In December, Proxmire and Schweiker dropped out, endorsing Kennedy and Percy, respectively.

The Democratic Primaries

On January 20th, just four days before the important Iowa caucus for the Democrats, these were the polls:

National:

Robert Kennedy: 21%
Terry Sanford: 15%
Edmund Muskie: 12%
Philip Hoff: 10%
Henry M. Jackson: 10%
George Wallace: 8%
John Connally: 7%
Undecided: 17%

Iowa:

Robert Kennedy: 19%
Terry Sanford: 14%
Edmund Muskie: 14%
Philip Hoff: 12%
Henry M. Jackson: 10%
George Wallace: 8%
John Connally: 7%
Undecided: 16%

On the 24th, Iowa produced a surprising result:

Kennedy: 24%
Hoff: 21%
Sanford: 18%
Muskie: 16%
Connally: 8%
Jackson: 7%
Wallace: 6%

Kennedy’s win was no surprise. He had been the front-runner the whole election. Sanford going up above Muskie was unexpected, but not completely. Muskie had been mostly campaigning in New Hampshire, and Sanford had focused his efforts in Iowa. Jackson and Wallace dropping were both surprising, and it seemed that they would both drop out soon. But the real surprise was Philip Hoff. The “outsider” Vermont Governor was a very appealing candidate to many Midwestern liberals, even though he wasn’t Midwestern himself. In New Hampshire, Hoff now had a three-way tie with Kennedy and Muskie. He was a great campaigner, and he had a month and a half to do the campaigning.

And he had a little help.

On February 24, a letter, later proved to be forged, was published in the Manchester Union-Leader. The writer said that, meeting Muskie, he had asked how Muskie could understand civil rights, because of the few blacks in Maine. According to the letter, a staff member said “Not blacks, but we have Canucks,” and Muskie laughed. Because of the many people with French-Canadian ancestry in New Hampshire, this hurt him a lot. But his response hurt him even more. He gave a speech, in which he allegedly cried many times. He claimed this was snow falling on his face. Either way, he dropped by quite a bit.

As for Kennedy, at around the same time, allegations of illegal wiretapping, especially on the tragically assassinated Martin Luther King, Jr. when he was Attorney General were proven true. He offered a stumbling defense, but lost much support. These were the ideal circumstances for Philip Hoff. Eugene McCarthy campaigned for him, he campaigned for himself, and on March 7, Philip Hoff, with 31% of the vote, to Sanford’s 18% , Kennedy’s 14%, and Muskie’s 11%. Connally finished with 10%, Jackson with 9%, and Wallace with 7%.

The jubilant Hoff knew that there was still work to be done. He went to Florida, and campaigned there. He didn’t win it (Connally did), but he finished a close second. Wallace ended up in third, incredibly disappointed. Sanford finished fourth, with Jackson fifth. Wallace and Jackson immediately dropped out, endorsing no one and Sanford, respectively.

National Polling, March 18:

Hoff: 29%
Sanford: 22%
Connally: 21%
Muskie: 10%
Kennedy: 8%
Undecided: 10%

On March 21, the Illinois Primaries occurred. Richard Daley did not endorse, leading to a Hoff win. Sanford finished second. Muskie and Kennedy both did badly. Kennedy dropped out right then. In Wisconsin, after Hoff’s win, so did Muskie. Only Hoff, Sanford, and Connally remained. Sanford kept coming in second, and eventually lost steam. Connally dropped out, after doing well in the South, and nowhere else. Hoff, by the California Primary, was the presumptive nominee.
 
Also, one big unrealistic part: With Johnson unopposed in the '68 Primaries, probably the McGovern-Fraser Commission wouldn't have happened.
 
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