Italy stays Neutral in 1940, and gets rich playing off Axis vs Allies, while making a Block with the Little Entente II: Electric Boogaloo, this time it the Italians leading Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Romania rather than the Tripartite Pact in 1940.
Germans were very annoyed, But Count Ciano replied that Italy would hold to the Terms of the Pact of Steel and provide direct military assistance in June, 1942. But in the meantime would continue the trade, plus what the Little Entente could provide.
Japan doesn't care for this either, and takes it out on some of Italian advisors in China,
The Moose pledges support for Chiang Kai-shek, not that he could help, with Japan blocking everything.
So years pass, Italy stays neutral, Germany and Japan gets stomped.
Italy is the third way, the weakest of the Superpowers, their strident Anti-Communist message brings in Spain and China, that wins it's Civil War against Mao.
Are there any TLs like this? I’ve seen Fascist Italy leading a Cold War fascist alliance in WI and DBWI threads before, and someone went so far as to call it a cliche, but I haven’t seen a single TL featuring it.
Problem is that Muslims, not even Arabs, can't agree about very many issues. Such alliance would collapse in weeks if not in days.
Would make for a kickass WW3 scenario, though.
After decades of shaky, unstable unity, the Union of Arab Republics is on the verge of collapse. The constituent republics are in open revolt against Cairo, and some (like Syria and Iraq) are in open combat with one another. Ethnic sepratists wreak havoc across the Middle East, and Shiite rebels raise hell in the Gulf. Reactionary Islamists seek a return to hardcore Sunni theology, and Soviet-supported far-leftists fight to spread communism. Wide-scale fighting breaks out across the Union, heralding the start of the Arab Civil War.
Washington and Moscow watch the UAR’s implosion with growing concern. Not only is the world’s oil supply threatened; the Arab Union’s nuclear arsenal, 400 weapons in total, is at stake. Should they fall into the hands of terrorists, or if the regime lets them loose against the rebels, millions could die. Even if no nuclear annihilation occurs, there is still the issue of who will dominate the Middle East after the fall of the UAR. Both the Soviets and the Americans view any situation where the other controls the Middle East as completely unacceptable.
As the War worsens, the United States and Soviet Union move in on their dying peer in the Mideast, citing “legitimate interests” and “severe national security concerns.” Naval vessels soon fill the Med and the Persian Gulf. The US soon issues a statement that it will not tolerate Soviet intervention in the UAR. The Soviets issue a similar warning about American intervention.
The panicking Arab military regime in control of the UAR fears that the other two superpowers seek to dismember the UAR and carve it into spheres of influence. The regime threatens that “any foreign intervention in the internal affairs of the UAR will be met with overwhelming military force,” ordering their nuclear forces to the highest state of readiness.
Tensions are at a breaking point, and the world waits with bated breath.
Suddenly, it all happens at once. A rouge leftist faction of the Arab military attempts a coup, but is quickly crushed. The Arabs find evidence of substantial Soviet involvement, including documents that indicate the plotters collaborated with the KGB and intended to request Soviet military intervention once they were in power. The Arabs retaliate by attacking a Russian cruiser in the Persian Gulf, killing many sailors and leaving the craft dead in the water.
Soon, the Soviets respond with strikes against Arab government targets and military installations across the UAR. Air and naval battles between the two powers soon develop in the Med and Gulf. In an unfortunate twist of fate, US naval assets in the area soon find themselves dragged into the malestrom, engaging both Soviet and Arab targets.
Now, a multi-sided battle that will decide the future of the Mideast, and perhaps the world, rages in the pre-dawn darkness of the Mediterranean. The Third World War has begun.