A Thatcher Government in 1978

Suppose Callaghan had called an election in 1978 and Labour had narrowly lost? How would a slightly earlier Thatcher government (and presumably one with a smaller majority, about 10-ish) fare?
 
im one of those who are 90% certain an October 1978 election would result in either a labour majority, or another hung parliament and a Callaghan minority/coalition government.

Still, if thatcher were elected with such a small majority, it would be prone to rebellions by the staunch Ian Gilmour type one nationer's, as well as by election defeats. Still, with a majority of 10 she could probably make it through to 1983.
 
im one of those who are 90% certain an October 1978 election would result in either a labour majority, or another hung parliament and a Callaghan minority/coalition government.

There's no denying a 1978 election would've been close, but if you believe the polls (which were all over the place, as this shows) it could've gone either way. Given how bad Labour's record with by-elections was becoming (losing even very safe seats to the Tories- Roy Jenkins' Birmingham Stechford jumps immediately to mind) and how badly they had been lagging in the polls in the early days of Callaghan's leadership, a Thatcher victory in 1978 seems plausible to me.
 
And here stateside, if Reagan had run for re-election in '82, he may well have lost because the economy wasn't doing well, '83 is a question mark, and '84 he won re-election easily because the economy was strongly rebounding.

So, with Thatcher in '78 + 5 years, that puts the Conservatives solidly in the question mark area of 1983.

And sometimes the party in power calls an earlier election(?), am I generally understanding that generally correctly.
 
So, with Thatcher in '78 + 5 years, that puts the Conservatives solidly in the question mark area of 1983.

And sometimes the party in power calls an earlier election(?), am I generally understanding that generally correctly.

If Thatcher won in 1978 with a narrow majority or minority, it is conceivable that the government could not survive the challenges of the early 1980s, perhaps a vote of no confidence in 1981 or disunity within the party could have resulted in an earlier election. If the majority was thin she could have been more cautious in terms of deflationary policy. Whether she wins it or not is a different matter but it is no inconceivable that Labour, or a Labour/Liberal government could be the result of an early 1980s election.
 
What seems likely to me is, as in OTL, Labour imploding and the SDP breaking off, albeit a bit earlier. If they win Crosby and the guy for Norfolk North West defects, that probably deprives the Tories of a majority almost completely, and then Thatcher's unorthodoxy loses them a vote of confidence in about 1980-1.
 
Anyone got any ideas about how said election would go? Personally, from the horrible poll ratings of the early part of Thatcher's rule, I think the Tories can expect a very low share of the vote. Foot obviously would've driven Labour's share of the vote down, and since the motion of no confidence would likely have seen the Alliance get the biggest share. I did a speculative calculation here.
 
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