A tale of Vietnam: Con rồng trở lại và ruồi phượng hoàng

May 3 1954, Hue

A slightly built man sat across the table from a middle aged man wearing the insignia of a French General. Blue grey haze filled the room, as both men savoured their Gauloise’s.

The Frenchman tapped his fingers on the desk and exhaled, “So your Highness,” gesturing at the two pictures, “which one is your choice?”

“I have worked with both of them, one a former Prime Minister – aloof and proud. Comports himself as the mandarin he once was. The other, a doctor, nationalist and former guerilla against the Japanese and French. I know that you are aware of his martial abilities General.”

An American voice, tinged with a slight French accent, joined the conversation. “Now Gents, Uncle Sam wants democracy to flourish as a bulwark against Communism. Failing that… an anti communist will suffice. But for this to work your choice must be seen as a legitimate nationalist to counteract the popularity of Uncle Ho.”

“Well if that is the main criterion,” he pushed the photo forward, “than him.”


June 7 1954, Tan Son Nhut Airport

Sous Lieutenant Ngo Hoc stood with the tip of his sword lightly resting against his right shoulder, waiting for the engines of the DC – 6 to stop. Sweat beaded across his face, with his peaked cap providing minimal comfort from the glare of the afternoon sun.

The door was opened and the stairs were lowered by the stewards. The band began to play and the honour guard snapped to attention. At the top of the stairs the new Prime Minister paused gazing out over the tarmac.

“Guard… Pre – sent arms,” thundered Sous Lieutenant Ngo Hoc as hands cracked onto rifles in salute.

As he descended the stairs, a smile crossed the face of the Prime Minister Dr Phan Quang Dan.

South_Vietnamese_Honor_Guard.jpg
 
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The end of the Binh Xuyen

July 18, 1954, The Grande Monde

In 1954 the Binh Xuyen criminal syndicate controlled the entire prostitution and drug trade within Saigon as a result of a deal with the Chief of State Bao Dai. In exchange for a million francs and other perks, Le Van Vien had become the undisputed master of Saigon.

Having grown fat from their monopoly, their leader Le Van Vien had become arrogant with his power. Guarded by his personal militia and a chained leopard, he felt threatened by the new government. The French had understood his business and in exchange for favours?

If everything he heard was true, they intended to shut down the drug trade, a lucrative business and shut down the Hall of Mirrors. Who the hell did they think he was, didn’t they realize he provided a much needed service to Sai Gon? He was a patriotic businessman, some of the brass were his best customers at the numerous casinos and the Hall of Mirrors.”

The strike would have to occur shortly.

Headquarters National Police

General Minh The unwrapped the map in front of the Prime Minister. “Our agent indicates that they intend to strike against us shortly. This will provide us with an opportunity to destroy the Binh Xuyen and their enervating influence. Our intention is to conduct a three pronged attack on the Binh Xuyen.”

“What of the possibility of French intervention,” he searched trying to find the right phrase, “to protect their commercial interests?”

“Assessed as remote we will block their access, and by the time they leave their barracks we will be engaged with the bridges secured.”

“Good make it so.”

The Times

Government destroys Gaming syndicate in Sai Gon by Thomas Fowler

The new government headed by Dr Phan Quang Dan has heralded in a new era of probity and order. These two elements were espoused by the former Colonial power, but these noble goals were frequently ignored to the benefit of their evenings.

It is hard to determine what motivated the abortive attempt to overthrow the new government. Although the headquarters of the National Army is riddled with holes from small arms, the former opium, gambling dens and the prized Hall of Mirrors are now a smouldering ruin.

The former kingpin Le Van Vien was arrested by the National Police attempting to board a ship to Singapore. He is expected to be charged with Treason and when found guilty will be hanged. The old ways of tolerating criminality appear to have ended, it remains to be seen whether this new approach will be successful.

Below: A photo taken during the assault on the Grande Monde by the National Army



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Interesting, the main reason the Americans failed in Vietnam was that the South Vietnamese state was too corrupt and oppressive to effectively defend itself or even to be worth fighting for.
 
I am also very much interested, and I have subscribed, although I am a total layman in this part of history. La Rouge Beret, could you kindly translate the title?
 
I am also very much interested, and I have subscribed, although I am a total layman in this part of history. La Rouge Beret, could you kindly translate the title?

Good to see some interest, the name translates as the dragon returns and the phoenix flies. In sinicized cultures a dragon refers to the Emperor, and the phoenix refers to a person of high virtue and can also refer to an Empress.

Essentially this TL is about making the best and brightest that existed in South Vietnam come to the fore.
 
I will be following this. There is a surprising lack of Vietnam Timelines on this board.

I think one reason for that is that objectively speaking, Ho Chi Minh pretty much had the brand of "Vietnamese patriotism" sewn up OTL. Just about everyone who could be taken seriously as someone who'd run Vietnam for the Vietnamese was lined up with the Viet Minh; it left mighty slim pickings for either the French or Americans to try to form some plausible non-Communist government from.

How then could Vietnam be prevented from uniting under Ho Chi Minh?

Note that even Phan Quang Dan was for a time associated with Ho, which is probably one big reason he was not backed by the Americans OTL.

I hope we get some explanation of how and why you think Phan could have done the job, Rouge Beret, and how he'd get picked by the Western kingmakers as someone more worthy of backing, from their point of view, than Diem.

I note you're starting this well before Dien Bien Phu; at this point the French colonial regime is still claiming to rule all of Indochina and the Viet Minh are a revolutionary counter-government; they haven't taken control of the North in any internationally recognized way yet.

And by the way, while the "Times" article of post #2 lays the dynamics of things out very clearly, that's not at all the style of a mainstream newspaper article on the subject. If it were the Guardian or some American leftist-independent publication (PM, I forget if it was still running then, or The Progressive or The Nation or In These Times or some such) then I'd expect more of that kind of frank language. Precisely because these journals were voices crying in the wilderness and not considered to be "responsible" or "of record!":rolleyes:
 
Shvek,

In OTL Dr Phan was offered a position in the cabinet of Ho Chi Minh twice, which is remarkable. He was a true nationalist and gained part of his reputation through his newspaper The Realist which espoused an anti communist, and anti french line.

The first post is the POD that Bao Dai chose Dr Phan over Diem, in OTL Diem had much stronger supporters internally. In this case the Americans listen to their voices on the ground like Lucien Conien and choose Dr Phan.

The reference for this is 'Not with Guns Alone: How the North won the War' by Denis Warner pp 101 - 102.

It's not the American 'Guardian,' there's a pop culture reference in there. Thanks for reading
 
What about restoring the monarchy under Bao Dai? Would that have any legitimacy?

Bao Dai is compromised for a number of reasons.

1) Cooperates with the French before WWII,
2) Cooperates with the Japanese during WWII,
3) Abdicated his throne so that Ho Chi Minh could unite Vietnam after WWII,
4) Cooperates with the French after WWII, following his abdication.

When he was coronated he originally wished to reform Vietnam. However he soon realised that he had no effective power, and became a dilettante in response.

His son Bao Long is a better candidate for the restoration of the monarchy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bao_Long
 
Well, I'm subscribing to watch. I'm skeptical, since I think Ho Chi Minh was himself a genuine nationalist and patriot and quite a few Vietnamese who were not themselves radical socialists attached themselves with few regrets to the Viet Minh.

OTL, I gather Ho did petition the USA for support in the late days of WWII or immediately after the war; there has been speculation in various places that had FDR lived longer he might have taken him up on it. What then? Probably an embarrassing mess for the USA as the Viet Minh would be considerably more Leninist, even with a lot of compromising to please their American allies, than the US domestic powers that be would tolerate. And if we then tried for an antisocialist coup, seeking to split the moderates of the Viet Minh off from the Marxist-Leninist core, I suspect we'd lose at that point.

(And I suspect that FDR would foresee all that and not take the deal, not without a lot of conditions the Viet Minh leadership would not accept).

Perhaps if Ho himself were to die before WWII ends, while I am still pretty sure the core of the movement would remain essentially Leninist, the factions within might align in a more acceptable configuration to the West if they were getting support from the USA. Maybe.

Anyway that's irrelevant to this TL, where for good or ill the USA still threw its support to the French Fourth Republic and decisively against the VM.

So where are you going from here, Rouge Beret? Does Phan have what it takes to present a really viable alternative to the VM? If he attacks corruption he attacks a big part of what stood in opposition to Ho; can he build up enough support from honest Vietnamese to stand against him?
 
Here's an alternative online encyclopedia to Wikipedia article on Phan Quang Dan. I wasn't aware of Citizendium at all prior to searching for info on your prime subject, I still haven't worked out to my satisfaction just how useful an alternative to Wiki this is; I'm going to start cross-comparing the articles of both when I search for info and see how it stacks up. I do think the Citizendium article brings in some extra info and perspective.

And in the course of trying to learn more via this new to me compendium, I've been reminded that the battle of Dien Bien Phu (March 1954, I thought it was some years later) already has taken place at the start of your thread, so I'm an idjit:eek:! You are of course looking at the aftermath of Ho's seizure of uncontested power in the North, which is the beginning of the history of the Republic of South Vietnam. Or its prelude anyway, as I think the French were still claiming it for some time after though they had agreed (or were in the process of being forced to agree) to withdraw in short order. Sorry I muddied those waters for you. Maybe I should just watch and learn.

But meanwhile, my original Google search also yielded this 1968 article in The Nation, quoted in the Citizendium article but not the Wikipedia, that does give us some relevant insight into Phan Quang Dan's character, as a realist and candidate for an actual responsible leader. By '68 OTL it was much too late for any good qualities he had to save the country though he did do some more good for some people by helping a lot of refugees escape the final fall of the Southern Republic in 1975.

So, I am still not at all sure this man can carry out the mission you set him, that's for you to show. But I do think he meant to do the best he could for his country, and that's saying a lot.

You should I think address the question of why OTL he was not favored by the powers that be you have choosing to back him here. Of course that's your POD--they do choose to back him here. But how plausible is that, given the concerns that weighed most heavily on the minds of the most relevant people to the formation of a separate southern Republic in the mid-50s? Put bluntly, I've been believing that at bottom those people were mainly foreigners who simply wanted to limit the Viet Minh influence as much as they could, as their first priority, with the interests of the Vietnamese people running a very distant second.

The unnamed American you have tipping the balance with high-mindedness rooted in pragmatism ("For this to work...") is sort of the problem. First of all it isn't clear to me yet that Americans were that intimately and directly involved; they'd be taking over from the French shortly but I am not sure they'd be in this intimate behind-closed-doors meeting as proconsuls of ultimate power just yet. Second, in hindsight we can see that the challenge was tough and the pro-Western interests needed to give this their very best shot, but I fear at the time, if anything it would be the defeated French who felt that most keenly whereas Americans might have been far too confident in American resources to steamroller through the desired result in any Third World country.

Trying to learn more here and suggest leads and alternatives shows up a major limit of Citizendium--it's only got a tiny fraction of articles compared to Wiki, and none for instance on Ramon Magsaysay, who in the timeframe of your POD (presumably between the Battle of Dien Bien Phu and this fateful meeting in May of '54, unless you've got one of those PODs that happened years before but lies dormant until it flowers into effective visibility) has just been elected President of the Philippines, mentored by Edward Lansdale (who does have a Citizendium article--written with remarkably poor grammar, but conveying interesting information--as well as a Wiki one of course!) Lansdale strikes me as the guy who is likely to be that anonymous American in your scenario.

OTL he is said (in the Wiki article) to have advised Diem not to attempt to steal the 1955 election (or perhaps not steal it with such blatant margins?) but also, says Citizendium, to have been not to comfortable with Diem in the first place, preferring a "charismatic" figure, as Magsaysay was in the Philippines. He was apparently overruled in this, OTL, and presumably made the best of his relationship with Diem he could. But this may be after-the-fact covering; I think we should try to nail down just why, if a figure like Phan Quang Dan looks so decent to us now he wasn't approached to be the point man in 1954.

(Anyway these articles do agree I was wrong in doubting the Americans were already directly and deeply involved in '54!)

Hitherto I've believed that the reason Diem was the choice OTL was that there simply wasn't a figure of caliber similar to Magsaysay to be found in the leading circles of Vietnamese society who wasn't already associated with the Viet Minh. Indeed, Dan was (somewhat peripherally to be sure!) associated with it, and that alone may be the whole and sufficient reason he was passed over.

Anyway, having the Americans choose to back him over others like Diem is only the first hurdle. I'm not at all sure he can clear all of them, but he's certainly a better alternative than any other I've ever heard of!
 
So where are you going from here, Rouge Beret? Does Phan have what it takes to present a really viable alternative to the VM? If he attacks corruption he attacks a big part of what stood in opposition to Ho; can he build up enough support from honest Vietnamese to stand against him?

The appeal of the Viet Minh was that they recognised the injustices perpetuated by the status quo and offered an alternative. Corruption was an effective recruiter for the Viet Minh and later the Viet Cong. Fundamentally in order to have a functioning state, corruption must be reduced. Note I said reduced and not completely eradicated. The elite will be coopted in other ways, notably trade contracts. However they still have to perform perform they can skim off the top, think a cross between Suharto in Indonesia and Park Chung Hee in South Korea.

But how plausible is that, given the concerns that weighed most heavily on the minds of the most relevant people to the formation of a separate southern Republic in the mid-50s? Put bluntly, I've been believing that at bottom those people were mainly foreigners who simply wanted to limit the Viet Minh influence as much as they could, as their first priority, with the interests of the Vietnamese people running a very distant second.

The unnamed American you have tipping the balance with high-mindedness rooted in pragmatism ("For this to work...") is sort of the problem. First of all it isn't clear to me yet that Americans were that intimately and directly involved; they'd be taking over from the French shortly but I am not sure they'd be in this intimate behind-closed-doors meeting as proconsuls of ultimate power just yet. Second, in hindsight we can see that the challenge was tough and the pro-Western interests needed to give this their very best shot, but I fear at the time, if anything it would be the defeated French who felt that most keenly whereas Americans might have been far too confident in American resources to steamroller through the desired result in any Third World country.

Lansdale strikes me as the guy who is likely to be that anonymous American in your scenario. Anyway, having the Americans choose to back him over others like Diem is only the first hurdle. I'm not at all sure he can clear all of them, but he's certainly a better alternative than any other I've ever heard of!

This period of time was interesting as the French retained a significant influence particularly among the elite. However the Americans were increasing their influence significantly - look at Trinh Minh The as an example or the Montagnard Y Bham Enuol. At this junction I am toying with which American will take the lead either Lansdale, Jim Thompson (if I keep him alive in TTL), or another character I'm thinking of an old China Hand (PM me if you have ideas). A China hand works well as you can see the push to end corruption, after seeing the enervating effect it had on the KMD.

In this scenario the West having lost China, North Vietnam, Indonesia flirting with Communist ideals under Sukarno and after the drawn Korean conflict have realised that to stop the inevitable tumble of dominos a leader must have legitimacy. So if that is a significant factor, which it should be, than having a politican from a minority is not a good start.

There are numerous examples of men who fought with the Vietnamese against the Japanese and the French who ended up fighting with the RVN. Two of note are Lam Quang Phong or Tran Thiem Khiem who later became Prime Minister.

Overall, South Vietnam is in a precarious situation with a weak economy, a large number of displaced people, poor infrastructure, ethnically diverse population, no strategic depth and a cold eyed neighbour who wants to destroy you. Does have the ingredients for a good TL.
 
Operation Passage to Freedom

The processing and integration of the 1.3 million refugees who fled from North Vietnam to South Vietnam remains one of the lasting achievements of the Kingdom of Vietnam. Following the Geneva convention establishing North and South Vietnam, an amnesty had been established to allow the free movement of citizens for a period of three hundred days.

Originally the number of refugees had been estimated at 30,000 – 40,000, a number that was quickly exceeded. In Haiphong the thronging crowd soon numbered over 200,000 spilling outwards from the harbour waiting for the ships to depart. The forces of the Free World rallied to the task, with the remnants of the French Air Force flying countless missions, but it was the sealift of the United States Navy that transported the majority of the refugees.

The smooth passage south for the refugees presented only half of the problem, as the temporary housing communities built to handle 40,000 were soon overwhelmed. Slums began to develop outside of the major cities in South Vietnam, as temporary shelters were erected haphazardly.

The ‘new village’ construction program was dramatically expanded with the influx of refugees. This expansion was facilitated by the significant donations of funds, construction material and expertise contributed by American charities notably the Rockefeller Foundation. It was the image of over a million people fleeing south to escape Communism that resonated in the thoughts of North America.

Each ‘new village’ was well laid out with every villager provided with farming tools and a ration of rice for a six month period. In addition the village was provided with an agricultural book detailing what crops could be grown appropriately in the province.

The result of 'The Passage to Freedom' was the expansion of the anti communist community in the Mekong Delta, which with an increase in arable land made the region into the rice bowl that it is today. On a national level the assistance provided by a primarily Buddhist government in resettling a Catholic population helped to ameliorate the rift between the Buddhist and Catholic populations that had been exploited by the French.

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Hyperion

Banned
So basically South Vietnam has someone in charge that even Ho Chi Mihn somewhat acknowledged at one time, and this person has decided actively to start cleaning out corruption and getting the French out in a manner not involving a major shooting war?

Taking out that crime boss and his cronies sounds interesting, but I'm not familiar with them. How big of an OTL impact did they play after 1954?

Even if South Vietnam and North Vietnam remain seperate countries for the immediate future in this timeline, might the two sides try to establish diplomatic relations or try to ease tensions between the two somewhat, trying to avoid any shooting wars or at least reducing some issues?
 
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Taking out that crime boss and his cronies sounds interesting, but I'm not familiar with them. How big of an OTL impact did they play after 1954?

Even if South Vietnam and North Vietnam remain seperate countries for the immediate future in this timeline, might the two sides try to establish diplomatic relations or try to ease tensions between the two somewhat, trying to avoid any shooting wars or at least reducing some issues?

In OTL the Binh Xuyen were destroyed by President Diem in order to consolidate his power base. They had also attempted to launch a coup and retreated as they have in TTL.

In order for peaceful coexistance to occur North Vietnam will require a leadership change and several large scale conflicts before they accept the continued existence of the South Vietnamese state. In OTL the personalities involved on both sides believed in a zero sum game and the starting personalities in TTL have the same viewpoint.
 

Hyperion

Banned
In OTL the Binh Xuyen were destroyed by President Diem in order to consolidate his power base. They had also attempted to launch a coup and retreated as they have in TTL.

In order for peaceful coexistance to occur North Vietnam will require a leadership change and several large scale conflicts before they accept the continued existence of the South Vietnamese state. In OTL the personalities involved on both sides believed in a zero sum game and the starting personalities in TTL have the same viewpoint.

The big difference I see here in regards to the Binh Xuyen is that the new Prime Minister seems to have order them shut down almost immediately. In OTL, they where not put down until 1955.

That and from what I recall the Binh Xuyen leader, Le Van Vien, managed to flee into exile in Paris. Here, he is going to be quite dead soon. That in itself might intimidate some less than honorable members of the South Vietnamese society that they might want to act a bit better.
 
That in itself might intimidate some less than honorable members of the South Vietnamese society that they might want to act a bit better.

One of the issues in OTL for South Vietnam was that unsuccesful coup leaders were regularly pardoned. This attitude contributed to political instability. If they had taken a harder line against the coup leaders then it may have led to a more stable state.
 
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