A Syrian Nuclear Disaster

[DMA]

What if when Isreal bombed the Syrian nuclear reactor last year, now claimed by the US that North Korea was involved in its construction etc (See BBC article here), it was actually fuelled up & about to go critical. Considering there's bound to be radioactive contamination, although maybe not on a scale comparable to Chernobyl, what would this mean nevertheless for Middle East & International relations?

And how would the region & world react to both Isreal & Syria?

Anything else?

Discuss

 

[Blue Max]

Well, I still see Syria denying they had a nuclear program at all. So you'd get a Syrian denial and a Israel insistence that the program was real.

Turkey, however, would start to scream within days. Radioactive Fallout would be considerable and irradiate portions of the country. Blame would probably be directed against Syria, for hiding the truth and failing to honor Israel's warnings against their nuclear program.

While the UN has to deal with nuclear fallout in southern Turkey, Israel claims vindication that Syria was about to gain the bomb. Turkey and Syria might go to blows over the program, or perhaps more likely the world starts to become very frosty for Syria. It would be interesting to see whether Syria wants to fight Israel or whether they've had enough as a consequence.

 

[Big Tex]

Israel gets chastised by the international community, but no action occurs against it. (It would be interesting to see if Syria retaliates or what the Palestinians do.)

Syria on the other hand gets very alientated and a UN force led by the US and Israel to oust the Assad regieme might be possible.

I could easily see it being just an enviromental disaster with lots of heated debate and inter country screaming, but no action.

 

[Berra]

Would the fallout be that bad? There is some arguments that even Chernobyl wasn't that bad and I guess that the Syrian reactor has less radioactive stuff. And by the pictures, it looks like the reactor is in some desert far from people.

The political fallout would be interesting if they tries to keep it secret...

 

[Big Tex]

Would the fallout be that bad? There is some arguments that even Chernobyl wasn't that bad and I guess that the Syrian reactor has less radioactive stuff. And by the pictures, it looks like the reactor is in some desert far from people.

The political fallout would be interesting if they tries to keep it secret...

yes but fall out from Chernobyl was felt as far away (and in fact first detected) in Scandinavia, Iceland and even Canada.

A Syrian reactor would have region wide-long term effect even if lesser in size and radioactivity than the old Soviet Cheronbyl reactor. The Mid East might be mostly desert but peoples are clustered and the region is much smaller and more densley populated than Eastern/Northern Europe with populations that are equal are greater than then.

The political fallout against Syria for having an unauthroized secret reactor and not following various treaties would be immense. Israel would get some flak for bringing the disaster about but not as much as one might think.

 

[kojak]

Would the fallout be that bad? There is some arguments that even Chernobyl wasn't that bad and I guess that the Syrian reactor has less radioactive stuff. And by the pictures, it looks like the reactor is in some desert far from people.

The political fallout would be interesting if they tries to keep it secret...

Only 5% of the potential radiation from Chernobyl was released, the rest was contained pretty effectively by a quick reaction from the Soviet state. This would be different.

 

[Big Tex]

Only 5% of the potential radiation from Chernobyl was released, the rest was contained pretty effectively by a quick reaction from the Soviet state. This would be different.

very true, the Soviets take a lot of junk for Chernobyl but the people and emergency crews that contained it knowing full well they were going to die are heroes of the highest order in my book.