A surviving Stem Duchy of Swabia?

Me again with another far-fetched idea, that would result from the Hohenstaufens being kept out of Sicily:

Emperor Heinrich VI's erbreichsplan, he started on it before Guglielmo III of Sicily died childless, but then got busy there, marrying Constance, Friedrich II being born and whatnot. Part of the reason that the papacy opposed Heinz's idea was because they were wary of the Staufi position in Italy now that they controlled Sicily. The archbishop of Cologne was the main dissenter of the plan in Germany, and then stirred up the Thuringian and Saxon princes against Heinz, after it seems that they'd already promised to support him (in exchange for the succession to their lands and female inheritance being allowed (I'm guessing it means female line inheritance or does it mean a complete break with Salic Law? Cause that could have massive consequences in and of itself)). And Heinz sort of had to let the plan go. Then with the whole Welf-Hohenstaufen feud in the coming years it went completely down the tubes.

Here, if the Hohenstaufens don't inherit Sicily (yet), and/or stay Germano-centric, what would be the chances of Heinz being able to push this through? (Sorry if this isn't so much a survival of a Swabian duchy as a Hohenstaufen improvement of OTL)
 
It could work I suppose. One thing to consider about keeping Empire and Kingdom separated is that Sicily could give a disproportionately high monetary contribution to the Imperial treasury because of how large the royal demesne was and how relatively centralized the kingdom was.Frederick actually tried some quite advanced forms of "dirigism" like having all grain exports pass through royally controlled warehouses, which allowed the crown to speculate on prices, especially when exporting to North Africa. Similar control seems more difficult to achieve in Germany, even in a successful Erbreichsplan scenario.

Moreover the Italian problems are not completely going to be butterflied away. I could even see the Altavilla intervening on the Guelph side, if they think this can net them advantages from the Pope. Imagine battles like Cortenuova with Sarcen archers bolstering Lombard heavy infantry...


That's why I stand by a later separation, with Manfred in Sicily and Konrad in Schwaben.
 
It could work I suppose. One thing to consider about keeping Empire and Kingdom separated is that Sicily could give a disproportionately high monetary contribution to the Imperial treasury because of how large the royal demesne was and how relatively centralized the kingdom was.Frederick actually tried some quite advanced forms of "dirigism" like having all grain exports pass through royally controlled warehouses, which allowed the crown to speculate on prices, especially when exporting to North Africa. Similar control seems more difficult to achieve in Germany, even in a successful Erbreichsplan scenario.

Moreover the Italian problems are not completely going to be butterflied away. I could even see the Altavilla intervening on the Guelph side, if they think this can net them advantages from the Pope. Imagine battles like Cortenuova with Sarcen archers bolstering Lombard heavy infantry...


That's why I stand by a later separation, with Manfred in Sicily and Konrad in Schwaben.

How about Philipp of Germany survives? That would also result in a Sicilian and a German/Swabian branch of the Staufer (Hohenstaufen). Perhaps at least one of his OTL 4 daughters is a son instead.
IMHO you undervalue the importance of a potentially successful Erbreichsplan, implications there are huge. Combine that with their OTL tactic, to break up the possessions their most important rivals, once they gave them the prefect pretext to do so and redistribute them among other vassals, no one would have accepted, if they had kept the whole of Saxony and Bavaria for themselves. That would have meant popular (obviously noble) support would have shifted in favour of the house of Welf.

Sure Sicily is very rich and thus gave them high revenues, but it also meant that an Emperor like Frederick II was too much focused on Sicily and squandered the interests of the Empire. Perhaps Henry VI living longer and thus have a more active role in the upbringing of his son and heir, would mean Frederick gets a more balanced upbringing with somewhat more attention for his Swabian roots and his Salian ancestors.
 
How about Philipp of Germany survives? That would also result in a Sicilian and a German/Swabian branch of the Staufer (Hohenstaufen). Perhaps at least one of his OTL 4 daughters is a son instead.
IMHO you undervalue the importance of a potentially successful Erbreichsplan, implications there are huge. Combine that with their OTL tactic, to break up the possessions their most important rivals, once they gave them the prefect pretext to do so and redistribute them among other vassals, no one would have accepted, if they had kept the whole of Saxony and Bavaria for themselves. That would have meant popular (obviously noble) support would have shifted in favour of the house of Welf.

Sure Sicily is very rich and thus gave them high revenues, but it also meant that an Emperor like Frederick II was too much focused on Sicily and squandered the interests of the Empire. Perhaps Henry VI living longer and thus have a more active role in the upbringing of his son and heir, would mean Frederick gets a more balanced upbringing with somewhat more attention for his Swabian roots and his Salian ancestors.

True, a successful Erbreichsplan could have lead to almost French-like developments in the HRE, but the problem of having to get to Rome for crowning would still be there. It is not that the Empire is not potentially much richer than Sicily (in aggregate, if not "per capita"), but extracting those resources will be much much more difficult. An immediate advantage of not inheriting/conquering Sicily is that Henry is likely to live longer, as you say and he seems ruthless and intelligent enough to have a shot at succeeding with the strategy you outline.

But I repeat that Lombardy, Tuscany and the Pope will keep the attention of any Hohenstaufen to the South of the Alps enough to make things dicey again in Germany.

And finally, in this scenario Schwaben would be their Austria, while my initial idea was adding another medium-sized Duchy (probably eventually Kingdom) to the German "game of thrones". Would the interregnum last longer? Could the Habsburg still get the same prominence? Would the Swiss Confederation still form?

But certainly the thread created a lot of very interesting discussion, I like it and would eagerly read a TL in which Frederick is primarely German and maybe leaves a more lasting legacy of success.
 
If the Hohenstaufens could be sure of a relatively stable base in Germany, wouldn't that make dealing with Northern Italy/the pope easier. As long as they don't go too native and think of stuff like moving the imperial capital to Milan or Pavia or something
 
If the Hohenstaufens could be sure of a relatively stable base in Germany, wouldn't that make dealing with Northern Italy/the pope easier. As long as they don't go too native and think of stuff like moving the imperial capital to Milan or Pavia or something

Yeah, that would mean, that now they have to face a pissed off power base North of the Alps. even long time Staufer partisans might decide to switch sides.

@Yanez de Gomera: Lombardy, Tuscany and the Papacy will indeed force any King of the Romans/German King (perhaps the term Roman-German King is easier, nowadays Römisch-deutscher könig is used in German, and the term Rooms-duitse koning is not uncommon in Dutch either to refer to kings from that era) to move South again, but it better to do so from a position from strength and to now, and to know that leaving won't mean new huge problems to solve on return. A king/emperor-elect as secure as his French counterpart, might be able to dictate terms Ottonian/Carolingian style in Italy without the need to have to inherit Sicily and thus prevent the Papacy from feeling to encircled. OTOH to broker such a position North of the Alps, they will need to throw around privileges, a common one was, not to have to go on too distant campaigns with the monarch. Unless the Empire would really be at war, many feudal lords could get away with the minimum they were expected to do.

The Habsburgs were loyal Staufer partisans, until, like any dynasty, they themselves were propelled to kingship. The Habsburg position would not have been unlike the house of Württemberg and better than the house of (Limburg-)Luxembourg before they became Holy Roman Emperor and were able to inherit Bohemia. With the house of Habsburg confined to the Swiss region, they might have been able to stay dominant in OTL Switzerland.

Finally Frederick II doesn't even have to be primarily German, more German and thus Swabian would already be an improvement. A surviving Henry VI would ensure a larger part of his son's education will be in his paternal ancestral lands, though his childhood will still be in Sicily. Under such a scenario Frederick could even serve as his father's replacement, when he was outside the Empire. That would hugely help his grasp on politics in the Empire.
 
I confess to being partial to Frederick II because he's my favorite Medieval king (and my second favorite king of all history) but I do like him being king of a powerful and independent Sicily, which is itself relatively easy to accomplish.

On reflection I think the Papacy was less overwhelmingly concerned with "encirclement" per se- although this was certainly a concern- than in asserting their "rights" to hegemony over central Italy, namely the former Exarchate of Ravenna and the Margravate of Tuscany (which were by the Donation of Pepin and Matilda's will supposedly Papal patrimony). This was also a strategic imperative as the two regions were rich, nearby, and critically controlled access to Rome. Essentially the Pope could be reconciled to the Emperor being powerful- even to the point of controlling broad swathes of Italy through his relatives, albeit grudgingly (as we saw with the Habsburgs, and was implicit in the negotiations between Philip and Pope Innocent), but only so long as the Emperor and his armies were far away in Lombardy or Germany, and critically not being next door to Rome itself. IIRC part of the negotiations with Philip stipulated that the Pope's nephew should receive Tuscany.
 
The question, as pointed out by Jonas above is which of the murders of Barbarossa's sons can be avoided? Personally I'm in favour of Conrad (but that's just because I think a Hohenstaufen Castile would be awesome!:)) and Philipp surviving. IDK much about Otto or Friedrich VI or how their survival might change things in the Low Countries (Otto being Count of Burgundy and all) or in Swabia. But I like what he said about Constance of Aragon replacing Constance of Sicily if the Hohenstaufens already have a tie to Sicily through Barbarossa's eldest daughter, and the king of Hungary being wed to Barbarossa's youngest daughter (would Andreas II still move against his infant nephew if the boy is also the nephew of the Holy Roman Emperor?). It sucks for the king of Leon that he may/may not be stuck with his kids by his Portuguese wife if the Konrad-Berengaria match isn't annulled. But if it is, then Konrad filling in for his elder brother, Friedrich VI in a betrothal with either a princess of Denmark or Hungary seems like a reasonable idea. I like the sound of Ingeborg/Isambour getting a slightly happier marriage than OTL.

Philipp (and a son) surviving would have all sorts of butterflies. I would imagine that his daughters would be married off elsewhere than where they did OTL (at least some of them), and the German princes might prefer a native son (Philipp's boy) to one born in Sicily. I mean, after all, they did with Karl V (wanting Ferdinand I rather than a Philipp II). Philipp's impact on his surviving son could be interesting to see. As well as whether the Hohenstaufens pull together or pull each other to pieces with internecine rivalry between the Empire/Sicily/Castile.

Not to mention, Philipp's boy would have links to both emperors (Hohenstaufen and Byzantine). And also, if a link to the imperial family in the west could stop the Angeloi from falling (I know they fell anyway, but you never know), or would we still see the Palaiologoi climbing into power - and then having a Hohenstaufen Emperor who has blood ties to the former Byzantine imperial family could make for fun times.
 
Out of curiosity, more for my own purposes than anything else, if the Berengaria- Konrad isn't unstuck, who would her Leonese husband be likely to remarry to?
 
I just realized something: Philipp had better relations with the pope than his uncle or cousin. Which could lead to interesting developments in Italy since Philipp was willing to negotiate with Pope Innocent about Tuscany. Ergo we could see a different imperial-papal dynamic at play. I'm going off a post by @Monter (in a post from a Phlipp of Swabia survives thread) here.

France might also have a different approach. They sided with Friedrich II over Otto IV (who was married to a Hohenstaufen princess and the grandson of Henry II) because they saw Otto as a threat. If we have Philipp in Germany and Friedrich in Sicily, the Capetians might take a different view of the situation in Germany
 
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