A surviving Sokoto Caliphate?

CaliGuy

Banned
Given Soverihn's posts here about how the Sokoto Caliphate was a relatively advanced African country in the late 19th century, I was wondering this: Could the Sokoto Caliphate have survived and maintained its independence during the Age of Imperialism (late 19th and early 20th centuries) and beyond by playing off Britain and France against each other?

If so, how would the Sokoto Caliphate have developed throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries?

Any thoughts on this?
 
They need a good deal more solidification. A stiff wind could destabilize the place. Everyone under the sultan had far too much autonomy for a place that has to repel Europeans.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
They need a good deal more solidification. A stiff wind could destabilize the place. Everyone under the sultan had far too much autonomy for a place that has to repel Europeans.
So, the Sokoto Caliphate needs to create a modern, European-style centralized government?
 
So, the Sokoto Caliphate needs to create a modern, European-style centralized government?

That would probably help, but how would one go about creating it without prompting a civil war? Sokoto already had three pretty good sized civil wars when they weren't trying to cement control with the sultan instead of the various emirs.
 
Their last truly independent caliph, Muhammadu Attahiru I, mounted a highly ineffective attack on the British. I read that his attack was in the style of Usman dan Fodio's initial battles (in itself based on the Prophet Muhammad's hijra). Attahiru was hoping for a miraculous victory, but unlike Usman dan Fodio, didn't get one, because the situation had totally changed.

Now Sokoto's well inland position does give it an advantage over other African states, especially since it's a pretty capable state compared to other African empires.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That would probably help, but how would one go about creating it without prompting a civil war? Sokoto already had three pretty good sized civil wars when they weren't trying to cement control with the sultan instead of the various emirs.
Someone such as Soverihn might be more capable than myself of answering this question.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Their last truly independent caliph, Muhammadu Attahiru I, mounted a highly ineffective attack on the British. I read that his attack was in the style of Usman dan Fodio's initial battles (in itself based on the Prophet Muhammad's hijra). Attahiru was hoping for a miraculous victory, but unlike Usman dan Fodio, didn't get one, because the situation had totally changed.

Now Sokoto's well inland position does give it an advantage over other African states, especially since it's a pretty capable state compared to other African empires.
How exactly do you get Sokoto to begin making modern weapons, though?
 
How exactly do you get Sokoto to begin making modern weapons, though?

I'm not really sure. African states in the late 19th century had a hell of a time getting weapons because of a Europe-wide embargo on selling weapons in Africa, which nominally was aimed at suppressing the slave trade but had the side effect of preventing the remaining African states from getting the supplies and guns they needed.

Sokoto could ally with other surviving states. One of the other causes of African failure in the late stages of the Scramble for Africa is that the states tended not to ally with each other until it was too late (since they'd been fighting each other for most of that time). A few good allies in West Africa could go a ways toward avoiding conquest.

Finally, getting European advisors and a couple of machine guns would be really nice. Even a Gatling gun or two. It would be nice to see a sub-Saharan African commander both appreciate the capability of those weapons and most importantly, being able to acquire them. And that's such a big issue. Russia helped Ethiopia out to some degree or another. Sokoto needs a Western patron to slip them some weapons, an officer or two, etc., under the table, maybe as some inter-empire rivalry. Maybe the Turks, as some way to weaken the Europeans? But I'm not sure to what degree the Turks could send the needed supplies, weapons, and officers to train Sokot soldiers with, when they were rather in need of that themselves.
 

ben0628

Banned
How exactly do you get Sokoto to begin making modern weapons, though?

You don't. That's the issue with Sub Saharan African states resisting European conquest. As long as said European nation is willing to fight a long war, they'll win.

Your best bet is a Berlin Conference where neither France or GB gets the land that is now Nigeria. If Portugal, Spain, Italy, or even Germany get the land, I could easily see the Sokoto Caliphate successfully resisting the minor colonial powers.

But if one of the big two claimed your land, you don't have a snowball's chance in hell at resisting.

The only African states that survived colonization were Liberia and Ethiopia. Liberia had American protection, Ethiopia only survived because the Italian military is garbage and they had Russian/British support.
 

Deleted member 67076

Yes but you have to alter the dynamics of the Scramble for Africa (or neuter it by making direct annexation unappealing) while changing the internal dynamics so the civil wars near the end are averted. Although its worth noting they /could/ produce gunpowder weaponry, the problem was the Caliphate lacked the know how to mass produce rifles and artillery.

Unfortunately, I can't remember off the top of my head how to alter the internal politics for stability, but as for the Scramble you can certainly delay and reduce its intensity via:

-Preventing the Berlin Conference (therefore making colonization less "necessary" as there is fear of being "locked out" of a strategic area while also making colonization riskier)
-Have the Ottomans win the Russo-Turkish War of 1876, preventing the British occupation of Egypt, the crippling of the Ottomans (they had substantial contacts with Bornu and the Sahel, so even if Britain and France don't sell or help you make guns, the Turks will)
-Prevent the French Third Republic from forming (much of the expansion south was driven by a need to recover prestige lost in the Franco-Prussian War)
-Prevent or end the Long Depression of the 1870s. It created a demand for new (captive) markets. Maybe if some other areas was booming and could absorb the sluggish demand for goods? Maybe Latin America starts industrializing earlier? Certainly would mean a greater demand for European products. Alternatively or both, start up Palm oil plantations in the Caribbean and Brazil much earlier than OTL to reduce demand from West Africa.
-Have a massive European War during the Belle Epoque. Colonization as doable in part because Europe was stable and growing. Have it broken, bankrupt and battered and it won't have the energies or will to expand on costly foreign ventures.
-Have the Powers that be decide to use Sokoto as a buffer state. Certainly would be useful as that, and open to trade with everyone.
 

Deleted member 67076

Maybe the Turks, as some way to weaken the Europeans? But I'm not sure to what degree the Turks could send the needed supplies, weapons, and officers to train Sokot soldiers with, when they were rather in need of that themselves.
If the Ottomans had a better Russo-Turkish War that prevents their loss of territory or a major indemnity, then I could see this happen. Because that debt shackled 40% of the Ottoman budget to paying it off for the next 30 years. Without that, that's a lot of money that gets reinvested back home, and the grip on Egypt, Tunis and Libya once more tightens.

From there, regular contact with Bornu and friends can be reestablished once more, and advisors, weapons and loans can be given.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If the Ottomans had a better Russo-Turkish War that prevents their loss of territory or a major indemnity, then I could see this happen. Because that debt shackled 40% of the Ottoman budget to paying it off for the next 30 years. Without that, that's a lot of money that gets reinvested back home, and the grip on Egypt, Tunis and Libya once more tightens.

From there, regular contact with Bornu and friends can be reestablished once more, and advisors, weapons and loans can be given.
How do you accomplish this, though? Indeed, would having Britain go to war with Russia in 1877-1878 be sufficient for the Ottomans to win that war? Or would more need to be done in order to achieve an Ottoman victory in that war?
 
If the Ottomans had a better Russo-Turkish War that prevents their loss of territory or a major indemnity, then I could see this happen. Because that debt shackled 40% of the Ottoman budget to paying it off for the next 30 years. Without that, that's a lot of money that gets reinvested back home, and the grip on Egypt, Tunis and Libya once more tightens.

From there, regular contact with Bornu and friends can be reestablished once more, and advisors, weapons and loans can be given.

I think this is the best bet. Sokoto needs someone powerful enough to force the emirs in line. A strong and prestigious Ottoman Empire might carry enough weight to solidify the Caliph's rule. And if the emirs aren't rebelling and fighting each other maybe they can focus on other pursuits (survival).
 
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